We do need Tobias to be everything he is supposed to be.
Kentucky, OTOH, needs Kanter, Knight, Jones, Lamb, and Poole (or at least the vast majority of them) to be everything they are supposed to be. Each one who is not leads to big trouble for KY, especially if any one or more of those first three don't meet expectations.
The difference is that we won't be relying so heavily on our other new players (Golden, McCrae and Maymon). It certainly will be nice for Golden to be a quality backup at PG, but we at least return 2 guys who played PG a bunch last season.
I loved Chism and (toward the end of the season) Prince, but Kentucky has to replace 4 top 15 Draft Picks (including 2 in the top 5) and 5 1st round picks overall with 5 freshmen.
Seems to me that best case scenario for these teams are:
Vols -- Harris is a legitimate top 5 HS player, Tatum stays healthy and continues to improve, Maymon is better than Woolridge as a PF backup, and Golden and McCrae contribute some meaningful minutes, along with quality improvement in Hopson, Goins, Williams, and Hall.
Kentucky -- Knight is a quality replacement for Wall, Kanter is a legitimate top 5 player coming in, Jones can come close to replacing Patterson, Miller continues to improve and be a steady player, and Liggins, Lamb or Poole can replace the production from Bledsoe and Liggins last season.
Looks like a lot more question marks for the Blue to me. Plus, there is no hope that Kentucky has anyone to replace Orton off the bench. To ask Kanter, Knight, and Jones to replace Wall, Cousins, and Patterson is big enough.
I suppose Pearl would say that the SEC title always runs through Lexington. But, based on what I see, it will be a much harder run for Kentucky this season than last.
Kentucky is going to face many challenges, including:
1. The same challenge from last season when utilizing so many freshmen in the starting lineup, except there is no Patterson as a steadying force. There is only one explanation for WVU blowing up KY in the Elite 8 (other than coaching) and that is the freshmen factor. As great as Wall and Cousins were, they were still freshmen capable of wild inconsistency, especially when not coddled by SEC refs.
2. A significant decrease in low post power -- even if a Cousins clone was coming in instead of Kanter, one guy can't replace the power of Cousins, Patterson, and Orton. But when the one guy is Kanter, who is more of a perimeter player, it is even worse.
3. KY will suffer in FG percentage, FG percentage defense, and rebounding (led the league in 2009 in all of those categories). Opponents FG percentage and point totals should go up. They were 2nd in blocked shots -- that will also change. Patterson and Cousins were 2 and 3 in FG % (Wall was 10th) and in the two bigs were both in the top 6 in rebounding. I bet KY doesn't have a single player in the top 6 this season.
4. PG issues. Wall was #1 in the SEC in assists and he's going to be the #1 pick in the NBA. But he also had a whopping 4 turnovers per game (that isa freshman for you). Now, instead of having two future NBA first rounders handling the ball (Wall and Bledsoe), at best KY will have one in Knight. One can expect KY turnovers to go up and assists to go down. Simply by substituting Knight for Wall and Jones for Patterson, assists should fall and turnovers increase significantly. If Knight gets any injury or gets in foul trouble, KY is hosed at the PG position. I guess Liggins is the PG at that point.
I like our chances going up against 5 freshmen plus Miller, Liggins, and Dodson. Our first 8 on the court might include 2 freshmen.
I'll say this -- if I have to rely on a freshman meeting expectations, I'd rather he play any position other than PG or Center in this league.