I think this tournament is Djokavic's or Federer's to lose. I'd place Murray at 3rd most likely to win, with Nadal as an outside chance.
I disagree. Here are my preliminary thoughts prior to the draws being finalized.
Roger Federer is past the point of no return. He has hit the wall. He isn't winning another major. And I would be willing to bet money on that. Just name the price. I'm in.
This tournament is much more wide open than was the French. Andy Murray can win it. Rafael Nadal can win it. Novak Djokovic can win it. And I wouldn't even completely rule out a sleeper coming out of nowhere and winning it. I'm thinking about guys like Berdych, Tsonga, Cilic, Tommy Haas???.
I can't believe I'm writing this, but I think Andy Murray is the favorite to win this tournament. He made it to the finals last year. And then a few weeks later he avenged his loss to Federer by putting an absolute beatdown on him at the olympics. I think that means a lot. He knows he can win the tournament, and you know he wants to win the tournament. I'm not saying he is the overwhelming favorite, but I would put him as the slight favorite with Djokovic coming in right behind him as the #2.
Djokovic is still the best tennis player in the world. He damn near beat the greatest clay court player of all time in the semifinals at Roland Garros. He's clearly playing very well. He will be on opposite sides of the draw from Murray, so they can't meet up until the final.
I think that Rafa is the third most likely to win the tournament. But a lot is going to depend on his draw. He is going to be the fifth seed, and so he could end up having to play, say, Federer in the quarters, Murray in the semis, and then Djokovic in the final. Which would be brutal. Or he could find himself in the same quadrant as his regular whipping boy Ferrer, which would be much less brutal. We just don't know. But I do think he has a legit chance of winning the tournament. Let's not forget that's he's actually a pretty good grass court player. He lost to Fed in the Wimby finals in 2006 and 2007. He then beat Fed in the final in 2008. He didn't play in 2009. He then won again in 2010, and then lost in the final to Djokovic in 2011. Last year of course was the Lukas Rosol stunner, which was clearly a fluke in view of the totality of the evidence.
Ferrer has zero chance of winning.
Del Potro has zero chance of winning.
Berdych and Tsonga could potentially win.
Can Dimitrov play on grass? I'll keep an eye out for him.
I think Milos Raonic blows, but grass does suit his serve-bot game.
Marin Cilic just lost a tight match to Murray in the Queens club final.
And maybe that Rhyne Williams kid will bust through and make a deep run.