This offense can’t win on 3rd and long

[BenGrimm]

This thread is dedicated to @Vol8188 who ask for proof that this offense wasn’t suited for 3rd and long.


Well I went back and looked at every single game from 2022 and compared it to our 13 opponents… I really woud really have thought the #1 offense in the country would have been better than it’s opponents… well it wasn’t..


Last year(2012 the great banner year) facing 3rd and 6 or longer the Vols were 28.9% and our Opponents were 30.4%



It’s clear to me (and yea the numbers show it) that this offense wasn’t built to convert 3rd and longs.


And yea I used all 13 opponents with those stats

Curious if you took into account how often our offense was in 3rd down situations vs the opponent. And you said 3rd and 6 or longer but there is a difference between 3n6 or say 3n13. How many of the failed conversions were beyond 8 yards. Who were the opponents we struggled converting against. I’m sure the UGA skewed that. So many variables.

Then you said this year we are 28th which really isn’t terrible at all. But we all know the offense is not nearly as efficient.

 

[vol_sec]

To me the 2nd down play this year seems always hurry up and on 3rd down they wait for the play call from the sidelines giving the defense time to get set.

 

[BowlBrother85]

83rd in the land with Hooker as the QB on 3rd down conversions …


26th under Milton


The offense is flawed as it just can’t overcome down and distance

We also scored a lot of long distance touchdowns on 1st down last year. Just look at the game Hyatt had against Alabama. You are trying way too hard to be negative. It suggests an agenda.

 

[BruinVol]

Curious if you took into account how often our offense was in 3rd down situations vs the opponent. And you said 3rd and 6 or longer but there is a difference between 3n6 or say 3n13. How many of the failed conversions were beyond 8 yards. Who were the opponents we struggled converting against. I’m sure the UGA skewed that. So many variables.

Then you said this year we are 28th which really isn’t terrible at all. But we all know the offense is not nearly as efficient.

Yes our opponents had way more 3rd and longs than we did. There is no doubt this offense more than others need to stay away from that down and distance

 

[Orangeslice13]

I’d like to apologize to you. You have been wrongly accused. I will edit the op

Fair enough. I say a lot of things but could not imagine defending that position.
Accepted

 

[volsrock09]

This thread is dedicated to @Vol8188 who ask for proof that this offense wasn’t suited for 3rd and long.


Well I went back and looked at every single game from 2022 and compared it to our 13 opponents… I really woud really have thought the #1 offense in the country would have been better than it’s opponents… well it wasn’t..


Last year(2012 the great banner year) facing 3rd and 6 or longer the Vols were 28.9% and our Opponents were 30.4%



It’s clear to me (and yea the numbers show it) that this offense wasn’t built to convert 3rd and longs.


And yea I used all 13 opponents with those stats

It’s definitely eye opening. I didn’t think the offense last year was on the field for as many 3rd downs as they were. That said, 3rd and long isn’t a recipe for success for any team and no offense is equipped to have consistent success under them circumstances.

The biggest issue with scoring this year is red zone offense in my opinion. Last year, it was almost a certainty that a TD was going to be scored if they got to the red zone. 53TDs-10FGs in 67attempts. This year they’ve scored 21TDs-15FGs in 44 attempts. Red zone offense has been terrible this year.

 

[njvols]

Getting behind the sticks w/ is bad for most teams, but especially JH offense, it seems. Especially when we have self inflicted penalties it just kills us, where we are more run-heavy on offense this year.

 

[BruinVol]

It’s definitely eye opening. I didn’t think the offense last year was on the field for as many 3rd downs as they were. That said, 3rd and long isn’t a recipe for success for any team and no offense is equipped to have consistent success under them circumstances.

The biggest issue with scoring this year is red zone offense in my opinion. Last year, it was almost a certainty that a TD was going to be scored if they got to the red zone. 53TDs-10FGs in 67attempts. This year they’ve scored 21TDs-15FGs in 44 attempts. Red zone offense has been terrible this year.

Great stat

 

[BowlBrother85]

This thread is dedicated to @Vol8188 who ask for proof that this offense wasn’t suited for 3rd and long.


Well I went back and looked at every single game from 2022 and compared it to our 13 opponents… I really woud really have thought the #1 offense in the country would have been better than it’s opponents… well it wasn’t..


Last year(2012 the great banner year) facing 3rd and 6 or longer the Vols were 28.9% and our Opponents were 30.4%



It’s clear to me (and yea the numbers show it) that this offense wasn’t built to convert 3rd and longs.


And yea I used all 13 opponents with those stats

Why are you wanting to limit the discussion to "3rd and long", with the arbitrary "3rd and 6" defining what is "long" .... instead of just discussing 3rd down conversions in general?

cfbstats.com - 2022 Tennessee Volunteers Third Down Conversion Offense Split Stats

www.cfbstats.com

I think it's probably because Tennessee's overall 3rd down conversion rate on offense has been pretty good under Heupel (especially at home) - and you would much rather be negative.

 

[BowlBrother85]

I believe he backed up the claim that the offense struggled on 3rd and long last year and this year.

Responses were "why bring this up" or "but we won" or whatever which is entirely missing the point of specifically looking at 3rd and long.

Heupel, when he first spoke about his tempo offense, said there would be times when you'd miss a pass or run short and that 3 & out's were going to happen. He was right. We've seen more procedure calls, which Heupel also said early on were not good for the offense because they turn short yardage into longer yardage.

What's interesting is that the offense last year, which was extremely explosive and efficient, was not any better than this year's MUCH less explosive and efficient offense on 3rd & longer.

We could get yards last year running and passing on the early downs but not on 3rd as well. Improving that seems to be on Heupel, not the players, is what I take from that.

Basically, as BVol said: this offense doesn't do well on 3rd & long and didn't last year either.

There are many variables which you are not accounting for, between two completely different teams. In 2022, Tennessee had considerably more "garbage time possessions" .... when Tennessee was simply not trying to score, because they had such a big lead. In a game like Kentucky last year, we would run the ball on 3rd and 10 .... because running clock was more important than trying to score, while we were ahead 44-6. This season, Tennessee has been playing from behind much more of the time. Stats don't lie .... but they don't always tell the whole story either.

 

[BruinVol]

Getting behind the sticks w/ is bad for most teams, but especially JH offense, it seems. Especially when we have self inflicted penalties it just kills us, where we are more run-heavy on offense this year.

Agreed but I thought 2nd and behind the sticks was worse. These numbers proved me wrong on that.


To me it’s clear 2nd down is the key down

 

[BruinVol]

Why are you wanting to limit the discussion to "3rd and long", with the arbitrary "3rd and 6" defining what is "long" .... instead of just discussing 3rd down conversions in general?

cfbstats.com - 2022 Tennessee Volunteers Third Down Conversion Offense Split Stats

www.cfbstats.com

I think it's probably because Tennessee's overall 3rd down conversion rate on offense has been pretty good under Heupel (especially at home) - and you would much rather be negative.

I discussed those as well

In fact I linked then lol

 

[BowlBrother85]

I discussed those as well

In fact I linked then lol

You have not accounted for how many possessions we had last year with a 2 TD or more lead in the 2nd half .... vs how many possessions we have had this year when we were behind in the 2nd half. Of course, the play-calling strategies on 3rd and 10 from deep in your own end will differ based on the damn score of each game!

Basically, your hypothesis sucks.

 

[volfan411]

The fact that the 3rd & 6+ conversion % is higher with this year's rather lackluster offense as opposed to last year's very explosive, fast, and powerful offense should at least raise an eyebrow.

Would you have thought that? Would you have thought that Milton and Co could extend drives on 3rd & 6+ at a higher rate than Hooker and Co?

Sure, there's lots of variables (and I trust the staff will try to normalize the data,) but it's still an interesting stat that I bet few expected.

As I asked earlier I would like to see the number of times each team was in 3rd and long. Those percentages could be skewed if one team was in 3rd and long way more than the other.

 

[Illinoisvolfan2]

Well, the defense can’t either, so at least there’s consistency

 

[HuntlandVolinColo]

This thread is dedicated to @Vol8188 who ask for proof that this offense wasn’t suited for 3rd and long.


Well I went back and looked at every single game from 2022 and compared it to our 13 opponents… I really woud really have thought the #1 offense in the country would have been better than it’s opponents… well it wasn’t..


Last year(2012 the great banner year) facing 3rd and 6 or longer the Vols were 28.9% and our Opponents were 30.4%



It’s clear to me (and yea the numbers show it) that this offense wasn’t built to convert 3rd and longs.


And yea I used all 13 opponents with those stats

Most offenses don't win on 3rd and long.

Of more concern is red zone and secondary getting burned on 3rd and long.

 

[BruinVol]

You have not accounted for how many possessions we had last year with a 2 TD or more lead in the 2nd half .... vs how many possessions we have had this year when we were behind in the 2nd half. Of course, the play-calling strategies on 3rd and 10 from deep in your own end will differ based on the damn score of each game!

Basically, your hypothesis sucks.

I could go back and look closer but Milton was really good a year ago in the mop duty on 3rd and long. I know he had a handful of our successes.

 

[BowlBrother85]

As I asked earlier I would like to see the number of times each team was in 3rd and long. Those percentages could be skewed if one team was in 3rd and long way more than the other.

... and you must account for the difference in strategy between facing a 3rd and 10 in the 4th quarter with a 59-24 lead over Missouri .... vs facing a 3rd and 10 while we're behind by 3 TD's. It simply doesn't matter if you fail to convert with a 59-24 lead in the 4th quarter.

 

[Volador]

This thread is dedicated to @Vol8188 who ask for proof that this offense wasn’t suited for 3rd and long.


Well I went back and looked at every single game from 2022 and compared it to our 13 opponents… I really woud really have thought the #1 offense in the country would have been better than it’s opponents… well it wasn’t..


Last year(2012 the great banner year) facing 3rd and 6 or longer the Vols were 28.9% and our Opponents were 30.4%



It’s clear to me (and yea the numbers show it) that this offense wasn’t built to convert 3rd and longs.


And yea I used all 13 opponents with those stats

I have been bemoaning all season that whomever our is calling our plays (which nobody on VN really knows the identity of that person/s), is obviously unaware of this stat. We got away from our game plan this year vs last year (short passes and quick runs), and that reason alone is why we are hoping for a bid to the Toilet Bowl. Our #1 offensive weapon is moving the chains, and yet our anonymous playcaller/s felt it was more important to show people that JMIII is not quite ready to be a drop back passer. I like Joe and hope he can find a good QB coach in the NFL,. but he is not ready yet and moreover, your great research proves that we have been stupid to abandon our game plan of last year. And it is not execution or talent on the field if the plays coming in suck.

 

[rocytop2624]

This thread is dedicated to @Vol8188 who ask for proof that this offense wasn’t suited for 3rd and long.


Well I went back and looked at every single game from 2022 and compared it to our 13 opponents… I really woud really have thought the #1 offense in the country would have been better than it’s opponents… well it wasn’t..


Last year(2012 the great banner year) facing 3rd and 6 or longer the Vols were 28.9% and our Opponents were 30.4%



It’s clear to me (and yea the numbers show it) that this offense wasn’t built to convert 3rd and longs.


And yea I used all 13 opponents with those stats

No offense is suited for 3rd and long especially on the road in a sec game.

The reason we are better on 3rd down and long this year is because of the running game.

Last year we was scoring alot more and with less plays.

 

[BruinVol]

As I asked earlier I would like to see the number of times each team was in 3rd and long. Those percentages could be skewed if one team was in 3rd and long way more than the other.

I gave that


Both teams had the same amount of 3rd and longs


Exactly the same at this point but of course there are two games left

 

[BruinVol]

No offense is suited for 3rd and long especially on the road in a sec game.

The reason we are better on 3rd down and long this year is because of the running game.

Last year we was scoring alot more and with less plays.

Just to clarify we aren’t better on 3rd and long this year


We are better on 3rd down overall. We are slightly worse on 3rd and long


Imo that’s because Joe is an awful runner. I don’t recall a 3rd and long scramble for a 1st down all year. Another reason might be we get absolutely no Pass interference calls with our WRs this year.
Squirrel just doesn’t cause contact at all really

 

[DuckInAPen]

I believe he backed up the claim that the offense struggled on 3rd and long last year and this year.

He gave statistics -- without any context -- indicating that in 2022 we converted 1.5% fewer 3rd and longs than our opponents did (1 fewer conversion for every 75 attempts). He then concludes that the offense -- which was the best in the country during the period he examined -- is flawed.

We could get yards last year running and passing on the early downs but not on 3rd as well. Improving that seems to be on Heupel, not the players, is what I take from that.

It's on Heupel to improve what was the #1 offense in the country last year? Tough crowd.

 

[VOLINVONORE]

Curious if you took into account how often our offense was in 3rd down situations vs the opponent. And you said 3rd and 6 or longer but there is a difference between 3n6 or say 3n13. How many of the failed conversions were beyond 8 yards. Who were the opponents we struggled converting against. I’m sure the UGA skewed that. So many variables.

Then you said this year we are 28th which really isn’t terrible at all. But we all know the offense is not nearly as efficient.

I would like to see how many first downs and TDs we scored on 1 and second downs compared to our opponents last year.

 

[BowlBrother85]

I gave that


Both teams had the same amount of 3rd and longs


Exactly the same at this point but of course there are two games left

You can't treat every 3rd and 10 play as if they are all the same from a strategical play-calling sense. This is a meaningless stat without factoring in variables which include extending drives which had to be extended because we were behind vs just trying to run the clock out with a big lead .... or run up the score. This is a junk thread topic.