Three Year Coaching Numbers

#1
VolunteerHillbilly

VolunteerHillbilly

Spike Drinks, Not Trees
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#1
I was struck by these numbers posted on another board. I think this kind of puts things in a proper historical perspective when you are trying to figure out at what point a coach who is exepcted to compete for championships is not getting the job done.

with credit to behindenemylines on RTN:

Zook, Florida 23-15
Holtz, USC, last three 16-19
Willingham, ND 21-16
Coker, Miami, last three 24-12
Bowden, Aub, last three 21-15
DiNardo, LSU, last three 16-18
Battle, UT, last three 20-13-2
Shula, Bama, last three 22-14
Donnan, UGA, last three 25-11
Majors, UT, last three complete 29-5-2
2 SEC championships (the 92 season was credited 4-0 for Fulmer, 5-3 for Majors)

Fulmer, UT, last three 24-12
 
#3
#3
VolunteerHillbilly said:
I was struck by these numbers posted on another board. I think this kind of puts things in a proper historical perspective when you are trying to figure out at what point a coach who is exepcted to compete for championships is not getting the job done.

with credit to behindenemylines on RTN:

Zook, Florida 23-15
Holtz, USC, last three 16-19
Willingham, ND 21-16
Coker, Miami, last three 24-12
Bowden, Aub, last three 21-15
DiNardo, LSU, last three 16-18
Battle, UT, last three 20-13-2
Shula, Bama, last three 22-14
Donnan, UGA, last three 25-11
Majors, UT, last three complete 29-5-2
2 SEC championships (the 92 season was credited 4-0 for Fulmer, 5-3 for Majors)

Fulmer, UT, last three 24-12
Click to expand...

Bear Bryant's record for 1968, 69 & 70: 20-13

Had back to back 6-5 seasons....then Bama had 5 back to back 10+ seasons.

Not comparing Fulmer to Bear by any means but the standards and expectations applied to Fulmer would have the gotten the Bear fired....
 
#4
#4
If you cut it off at 4 years and we win our bowl game, CPF will have 10 wins for 3 of the last 4 seasons. What does that say?
 
#5
#5
KSVOL said:
If you cut it off at 4 years and we win our bowl game, CPF will have 10 wins for 3 of the last 4 seasons. What does that say?
Click to expand...

It says he won 10 games in 3 of the last 4 seasons.:)

The larger context is that:

1. 2 SEC titles in 14 yrs
2. No titles in 8 years
3. 1 top ten finish since 1998
4. No BCS bowls since 1999
5. Unranked 3 times this decade
6. Seasons of 4, 5, and 6 losses since 2000

Tennessee is a fringe top 25 program right now. That's the reality of the situation.
 
#6
#6
Liper said:
Tennessee is a fringe top 25 program right now. That's the reality of the situation.
Click to expand...

I don't know that I'd go that far. I have no delusions about us being a super elite program right now . . . but at the same time we're not Georgia Tech either.
 
#7
#7
GAVol said:
I don't know that I'd go that far. I have no delusions about us being a super elite program right now . . . but at the same time we're not Georgia Tech either.
Click to expand...

a loss in the bowl game and we are very easily unranked. that tells me fringe top 25 like no other
 
#8
#8
UT won't drop out of the Top 25 with a Bowl loss. Way too much ground to lose for 1 loss in the BCS.
 
#9
#9
HawaiiVol said:
UT won't drop out of the Top 25 with a Bowl loss. Way too much ground to lose for 1 loss in the BCS.
Click to expand...

um dropping 6 or 8 spots depending on which poll you look at it is definitely possible w/ a bowl loss. Either way a loss still puts us in the 23-24-25 range at best. That is still fringe top 25
 
#10
#10
volfanbill said:
um dropping 6 or 8 spots depending on which poll you look at it is definitely possible w/ a bowl loss. Either way a loss still puts us in the 23-24-25 range at best. That is still fringe top 25
Click to expand...

....and with a win we'll likely finish in the low to mid teens. I understand what you're saying, but I still just don't put us in the same category as someone like a South Carolina, Georgia Tech etc.
 
#11
#11
I give phil credit for taking the program to another level, then the blame for promptly putting up his feet, taking a load off, and watching the program sink back to the middle of the pack. vol fans can expect 9 or 10 win seasons, beating bama, and the occaisional win over the gators; but no rings of any kind.
 
#12
#12
assuming everyone beneath us wins their bowl, yes, fringe 25. Unlikely tho. If we lose, I'd say low 20's in the BCS.
 
#13
#13
GAVol said:
I don't know that I'd go that far. I have no delusions about us being a super elite program right now . . . but at the same time we're not Georgia Tech either.
Click to expand...

I'm not trying to be the master of the overstatement -- ala Brent Musberger. But if you look at our results, it's sort of hit or miss whether we're really much better than top 20 in a good year.

AP:
2000 #25
2001 #4
2002 NR
2003 #15
2004 #13
2005 NR
2006 Top 25?
 
#14
#14
Liper said:
I'm not trying to be the master of the overstatement -- ala Brent Musberger. But if you look at our results, it's sort of hit or miss whether we're really much better than top 20 in a good year.

AP:
2000 #25
2001 #4
2002 NR
2003 #15
2004 #13
2005 NR
2006 Top 25?
Click to expand...


That looks like Oprah's weight fluctuations.
 
#15
#15
Liper said:
I'm not trying to be the master of the overstatement -- ala Brent Musberger. But if you look at our results, it's sort of hit or miss whether we're really much better than top 20 in a good year.
Click to expand...

I definitely think you can make a strong argument. I guess my hesitation is that "fringe top 25 teams" don't typically win 9+ games 3 out of 4 years.
 
#16
#16
actually, upon further reflection, it's a combo of vol slippage and the other guys just getting better. in the mid to late 90's:
aubun- decent at best
bamma- driven into the ground by dubose, boosters,etc.
lsu- pitiful until saban
geawga- ray goff/jim donnan, nuff said
ark- other than 95, awful
miss, miss st, s.c., ky, vu- well you know

most of these guys have simply gotten better and vols have not.
 
#17
#17
tarvol23 said:
actually, upon further reflection, it's a combo of vol slippage and the other guys just getting better. in the mid to late 90's:
aubun- decent at best
bamma- driven into the ground by dubose, boosters,etc.
lsu- pitiful until saban
geawga- ray goff/jim donnan, nuff said
ark- other than 95, awful
miss, miss st, s.c., ky, vu- well you know

most of these guys have simply gotten better and vols have not.
Click to expand...

That's all well and good until you look at the records and realize that Dubose won an SEC title in there. At UGA, Goff had a couple of 9+ win seasons in the early 90s and Donnan had some teams in the late 90s that were actually pretty good. Auburn was really good in the early to mid 90s with an undefeated season in '93 and we played them in the SECCG in '97. Mississippi State under Jackie Sherrill was also no pushover - we played them in the SECCG in '98.

It's not like the whole SEC was Florida, Tennessee and a bunch of weak sisters in the 90s. It's always been tough.
 
#18
#18
GAVol said:
I definitely think you can make a strong argument. I guess my hesitation is that "fringe top 25 teams" don't typically win 9+ games 3 out of 4 years.
Click to expand...

There's room for perception and semantics here.

I'm just looking at the fact that at best we'll have completed seven seasons with 4 top 20 finishes. This year being the tie breaker, it's 50-50 whether we finish in the top 20 this decade.

The 2001 season looks like the anomaly out of the group.
 
#19
#19
I was looking at the same ranking trends, but took them back a few years farther (these are AP rankings):

1995 3
1996 9
1997 7
1998 1
1999 9
2000 NR
2001 4
2002 NR
2003 15
2004 13
2005 NR

I would call that slippage. That pasting of Michigan in the 2001/2 Citrus Bowl was the last gasp of a great team; ever since then we've become Wisconsin.
 
#21
#21
HawaiiVol said:
assuming everyone beneath us wins their bowl, yes, fringe 25. Unlikely tho. If we lose, I'd say low 20's in the BCS.
Click to expand...

You've now mentioned "in the BCS" twice now. I assume that you are aware of the fact that there is no "BCS Poll". After the bowl games, there is not a final BCS ranking that is released. There is only the AP Poll and the Coaches Poll.
 
#22
#22
(And not to disparage our fine cheesemaking Badger brethren from the north; I do not want to play them in the Capital One Bowl this year because I think they would run it right down our throats.)
 
#23
#23
I realize there is no BCS "Poll". Thanks for reclarifying. I thought there was another one after bowls, I was wrong. My prediction still stands regarding AP and Coaches.
 
#25
#25
The real question is - Has VolunteerHillbilly licensed your use of the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man?
 
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