TN/UK betting line. Somebody need to explain this

#26
#26
BigOrangeTrain said:
SIAP but somebody is gonn have to explain this to me. So we have 3 top 25 wins and 1 top 5 win over Bama. We have either the second most or the most explosive offense in college football. We have the current front runner for the Heisman and a WR on the Bilitnekoff list. We have scored at least 30 points in every team and hung 52 on Bama. This game is in Neyland and we are favored by less than a TD?????

View attachment 503587
Click to expand...


This is going to be the year for the Vols to "prove it". Season is not over and we haven't won anything yet. I understand why Vegas and others may doubt us. We are pretty much in same spot as we were when 5-0 in 2016.

I want doubters to keep doubting
 
#27
#27
BigOrangeTrain said:
SIAP but somebody is gonn have to explain this to me. So we have 3 top 25 wins and 1 top 5 win over Bama. We have either the second most or the most explosive offense in college football. We have the current front runner for the Heisman and a WR on the Bilitnekoff list. We have scored at least 30 points in every team and hung 52 on Bama. This game is in Neyland and we are favored by less than a TD?????

View attachment 503587
Click to expand...

I thought this was a good write-up/point in the Tennessean today.

A week before Tennessee plays Georgia, possibly for the SEC East title, it will host Kentucky (5-2, 2-2). That’s only a trap game if the Vols allow it to be.

Kentucky isn’t a great team. But it’s good.

Quarterback Will Levis lost two fumbles in the final three minutes in a 22-19 loss to Ole Miss. And he didn’t play due to injury in a 24-14 loss to South Carolina. Otherwise, Kentucky would roll into Neyland Stadium with a 7-0 record and its own path to the SEC East title.

I don't think Kentucky is nearly as good a team as we are, but I do worry it's a team that's built and with a style of play that matches up well against us. Keep the ball, grind it out, run clock, don't rack up penalties, and limit our offensive possessions. We're a much better team this year than last against the run, but it did go down to the wire last year. If I had to point to a team we've played that most closely resembles Kentucky (not a mirror image, just most closely) I'd probably say that's Pitt. I don't think Pitt is nearly as good as we are either and that we've gotten better since we played them, but that was another game that went down to the wire.

I think we win this one. I think we could win this one big. But I also think Kentucky has a shot at it too and I don't think they're going to come in intimidated after the last two years. In fact, I think the Alabama win and an extra week to think just about us (just like we had for Florida) gets them extra amped and focused and that can help counter our fast-starts. When we don't have those early scores, it's more of a slog (also like the Pitt game).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Coach_Z
#28
#28
WilcoVolsFan said:
I thought this was a good write-up/point in the Tennessean today.

A week before Tennessee plays Georgia, possibly for the SEC East title, it will host Kentucky (5-2, 2-2). That’s only a trap game if the Vols allow it to be.

Kentucky isn’t a great team. But it’s good.

Quarterback Will Levis lost two fumbles in the final three minutes in a 22-19 loss to Ole Miss. And he didn’t play due to injury in a 24-14 loss to South Carolina. Otherwise, Kentucky would roll into Neyland Stadium with a 7-0 record and its own path to the SEC East title.

I don't think Kentucky is nearly as good a team as we are, but I do worry it's a team that's built and with a style of play that matches up well against us. Keep the ball, grind it out, run clock, don't rack up penalties, and limit our offensive possessions. We're a much better team this year than last against the run, but it did go down to the wire last year. If I had to point to a team we've played that most closely resembles Kentucky (not a mirror image, just most closely) I'd probably say that's Pitt. I don't think Pitt is nearly as good as we are either and that we've gotten better since we played them, but that was another game that went down to the wire.

I think we win this one. I think we could win this one big. But I also think Kentucky has a shot at it too and I don't think they're going to come in intimidated after the last two years. In fact, I think the Alabama win and an extra week to think just about us (just like we had for Florida) gets them extra amped and focused and that can help counter our fast-starts. When we don't have those early scores, it's more of a slog (also like the Pitt game).
Click to expand...
Kentucky wont slow the Tennessee offense down whatsoever with slow as molasses defense.
 
  • Like
Reactions: FLVOL_79, norrislakevol, VolFreakJosh and 1 other person
#29
#29
BigOrangeTrain said:
SIAP but somebody is gonn have to explain this to me. So we have 3 top 25 wins and 1 top 5 win over Bama. We have either the second most or the most explosive offense in college football. We have the current front runner for the Heisman and a WR on the Bilitnekoff list. We have scored at least 30 points in every team and hung 52 on Bama. This game is in Neyland and we are favored by less than a TD?????

View attachment 503587
Click to expand...
It will change as soon as bets are accepted. Likely around -14 Vols.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HalfullVol and Jeff Clark
#32
#32
allvol123 said:
I believe they set it to try to get equal money on each side. Then lines can move to alleviate that situation if it isn’t happening.
Click to expand...

While the current line is in fact much more reasonable than the original, I think this point is worth reiterating. Vegas doesn’t try to predict outcomes. They try to even out the betting so they can safely collect the juice.

They can do this by moving the line to encourage people to move more money toward the other opponent who isn’t being bet on or by changing the juice so their cut is bigger to offset some of their risk.
 
  • Like
Reactions: youcancallmeAl and allvol123
#34
#34
VolZen said:
Their OL is also weak, they are near the bottom of the SEC in rushing and Levis has taken a lot of hits.

I believe this plays right into our hands as they will not be able to eat the clock like they did last year by running consistently.

More possessions for us, even if they score some is bad for them. They won’t be able to keep up!
Click to expand...
Despite their eating the clock we still scored 45. Imagine how much we score if we get more possessions.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jeff Clark, vegasvolfan and Stephen Gray
#35
#35
RockyTop140 said:
This is kentuckys super bowl. Expect to get their best. I’m interested in this one because last year Kentucky ran on us a whole lot and was able to chew up a bunch of clock. This year our run D has improved a whole lot, so I wonder what their game plan will be if they realize the run isn’t panning out
Click to expand...
They are going to try and be the first team to run and throw
 
#38
#38
Weird line.

Sagarin suggests it should be between Tenn -12.5 to -14 depending on which metric you use.
 
#39
#39
We are going to get KY best shot, they are primed for this. I do think this will be a shootout until late in the 4th where we start to pull away. I'm guessing 38 to 28.
 
#40
#40
RockyTop140 said:
This is kentuckys super bowl. Expect to get their best. I’m interested in this one because last year Kentucky ran on us a whole lot and was able to chew up a bunch of clock. This year our run D has improved a whole lot, so I wonder what their game plan will be if they realize the run isn’t panning out
Click to expand...
Last year’s defense gave up 47 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs to Will Levis. True dual threats haven’t been doing that to us this season. Vital improvement and credit to the DL and linebackers…especially Beasley.
 
#41
#41
I don't care. I just want the Vols to run on field, commit cat abuse, and just let our play speak for itself. Then console Kentucky with a WoodsmanVol get well card. A what!!??: A card that tells the battered Wildcats. Thank you for bending over for your prostrate probe. We regret we had to use a velociraptor claw for that. Heal up quickly, so we do it again in Lexington next year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: norrislakevol and HalfullVol
#42
#42
AllVols said:
We are going to get KY best shot, they are primed for this. I do think this will be a shootout until late in the 4th where we start to pull away. I'm guessing 38 to 28.
Click to expand...
Not following why you see a shootout as the kitties only chance is to grind the game out and hope we make mistakes. If they’re successful it’s probably a 28-24 type score. If not it’s probably a 45-24 type game
 
#43
#43
walkenvol said:
Not following why you see a shootout as the kitties only chance is to grind the game out and hope we make mistakes. If they’re successful it’s probably a 28-24 type score. If not it’s probably a 45-24 type game
Click to expand...
Just a feeling killer... They play is tough year in and year out. Always closer then I like.
 
#44
#44
You must have forgotten this is the year Kentucky is the official media preseason darkhorse and wins the SEC East.





k1pge.jpg
 
  • Like
Reactions: foolonthehill and norrislakevol
#45
#45
its dreaded trap look ahead game.. I believe in CJH and his ability to keep it one game at a time but HARD not to look to uga the next week. Ky has a decent qb who could give us fits also.. I don't think it will be huge blowout and could see backdoor
 
#47
#47
WilcoVolsFan said:
I thought this was a good write-up/point in the Tennessean today.

A week before Tennessee plays Georgia, possibly for the SEC East title, it will host Kentucky (5-2, 2-2). That’s only a trap game if the Vols allow it to be.

Kentucky isn’t a great team. But it’s good.

Quarterback Will Levis lost two fumbles in the final three minutes in a 22-19 loss to Ole Miss. And he didn’t play due to injury in a 24-14 loss to South Carolina. Otherwise, Kentucky would roll into Neyland Stadium with a 7-0 record and its own path to the SEC East title.

I don't think Kentucky is nearly as good a team as we are, but I do worry it's a team that's built and with a style of play that matches up well against us. Keep the ball, grind it out, run clock, don't rack up penalties, and limit our offensive possessions. We're a much better team this year than last against the run, but it did go down to the wire last year. If I had to point to a team we've played that most closely resembles Kentucky (not a mirror image, just most closely) I'd probably say that's Pitt. I don't think Pitt is nearly as good as we are either and that we've gotten better since we played them, but that was another game that went down to the wire.

I think we win this one. I think we could win this one big. But I also think Kentucky has a shot at it too and I don't think they're going to come in intimidated after the last two years. In fact, I think the Alabama win and an extra week to think just about us (just like we had for Florida) gets them extra amped and focused and that can help counter our fast-starts. When we don't have those early scores, it's more of a slog (also like the Pitt game).
Click to expand...
Kentucky is definitely worse than last year, and we're definitely better. Plus it's at home.

The UK OL is worse than LSU's. A better comparison would probably be the Tigers rather than Pitt- and look what happened there.

I don't think Kentucky will have the firepower to keep this close at all.
 
  • Like
Reactions: foolonthehill and norrislakevol
#50
#50
Jeff Clark said:
Kentucky wont slow the Tennessee offense down whatsoever with slow as molasses defense.
Click to expand...

I don’t think so either and didn’t say they would. I said I think they’ll try to keep our offensive possessions limited by trying to eat up clock as much as they can.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top