Momma said that Alligators are ornery because they got all 'dem teeth but no toothbrush.
At least that is what "The Waterboy's" momma always says.
Going on ten long years, the Volunteers have struggled and fallen short against those scaley swamp lizards from the state that, anatomically speaking, slightly resembles a flaccid penis. That is diabolical. How can any team lose for ten years to any other team? It has to be magic, or hate from the gods, or how the Gators have gotten in the Vols heads, right? Wes Rucker thinks so.[1]
"Jones this week will be faced with perhaps the biggest challenge of his career--how to combat Florida's psychological warfare against the Tennessee football program, something that's reduced the Vols to mental midgetry for years and years and years..."
Momma's wrong again.
The real reason is talent. Or to be more precise, the real reason is the difference in talent between the two teams. Let's take a look at how recruiting averages compare, going back to 2005.
Look closely. Do you see a time where the four years of recruiting classes at UT have a better average than those at Florida? Is it even really all that close? The answers to those questions are no with one lone exception. The 2005 year pitted a UT team that averaged 11th playing a UF team that averaged 11.75 in the swamp. As I have often stated, home field advantage is real (see the 2004 game) and appears to favor an upset when teams are relatively close in rankings. Since then, the tale of recruiting has been very different between the two teams with the disparity climaxing about 2009.
If talent predicts 70% of games (it does), how can a team go ten years without beating a more talented team about three times? That answer is about the effect of randomness in any event. First, every UT vs. UF game played is independent of the one played before it. That means that each game that is played favors the more talented team by a ratio of 70/30. Think of a coin toss where each outcome is 50% likely. Every new toss, regardless of how many heads or tails you have before, remains only a 50% likelihood of either heads or tails. That means that every game since 2005 has favored the Gators by 70/30. Is this year any different? The chart says no, history says no, probability says no.
But...
My momma has a saying that applies here "two tears in a bucket, mother**** it."[2] Or, to apply a similar lesson with toned down language, Butch Jones would say "snap and clear." This is a new year, with new teams. To answer the initial question, the real reason that alligators are onry is because of this guy.
Rarely has one person done so little with so much. It wasn't long ago that UT had a coach with a similar effect on his talent.
Snap and clear...
Two tears in a bucket...
Is this Tennessee's year to end the streak? While talent says no, there is hope. Tennessee is playing at home in Neyland. Tennessee leads the country in 3rd down defense. Tennessee has been battle tested on the road against two teams that, at least in many aspects, are better than anything Tennessee will face on Saturday. Will Muschamp is 4-5 against the spread when having more than a week to prepare, and right now the Vegas line is narrowly trending towards favoring UT. It will be interesting to see how the line shifts as game time approaches.
Florida still has the talent to make a liar out of anyone who thinks they are dead, but they have a coach that makes them unpredictable. Tennessee, conversely, is a young but scrappy team with tons of heart and with coaches who are putting them in a position to win games. In a rare departure from the numbers, I pick UT to win this game in a close fought contest.
Go Vols! Pandemonium reigns.
[1] I really like most of what I read from Mr. Rucker, but sometimes even the truly talented can miss the forest for the trees.
[2] My mother is the paradigm of virtue and respect. The words quoted, to my knowledge, have never left my mother's mouth. I simply find that quote from the movie Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil to be fantastic and fitting in this context.
From: MyBloodIsOrange.com: Today's Q&A: Alligators are Abnormally Aggressive Because?
Last edited:
