Trade Wars and Tariffs

[Ashevolle]

We're staring down the barrel of a Mexican standoff of Tariffs here. If you thought prices were high now, Buckle up buttercup because it's about to get absolutely nuts in 2025. Inflation's about to go sky high. Curious what possible upside this trade war with Canada, Mexico, and China could possibly have from the this board's perspective.

 

[gcbvol]

We're staring down the barrel of a Mexican standoff of Tariffs here. If you thought prices were high now, Buckle up buttercup because it's about to get absolutely nuts in 2025. Inflation's about to go sky high. Curious what possible upside this trade war with Canada, Mexico, and China could possibly have from the this board's perspective.

Posted this earlier in another thread, but think this is what we'll see.

Everyone knows how this will play out. Each leader will criticize the tariffs and respond with their own, as one would expect from the leader of a sovereign nation. Meanwhile, they'll negotiate behind the scenes and come up with a new agreement. All 3 need each other.

 

[Ashevolle]

Posted this earlier in another thread, but think this is what we'll see.

Everyone knows how this will play out. Each leader will criticize the tariffs and respond with their own, as one would expect from the leader of a sovereign nation. Meanwhile, they'll negotiate behind the scenes and come up with a new agreement. All 3 need each other.

Since he negotiated the last deal, I'm not sure:

A) why he wants to change it
B) why anyone on the other side would be believe he's negotiating in good faith and that deal reached would have any trustworthiness.

Seems like there is no reason to entertain new negotiations here for Canada or Mexico

 

[jmacvols1]

 

[walkenvol]

We're staring down the barrel of a Mexican standoff of Tariffs here. If you thought prices were high now, Buckle up buttercup because it's about to get absolutely nuts in 2025. Inflation's about to go sky high. Curious what possible upside this trade war with Canada, Mexico, and China could possibly have from the this board's perspective.

The Mexican standoff is like playing chicken between a transfer truck and a motorcycle. One will get nicked and the other will get crushed.

 

[Vol8188]

We're staring down the barrel of a Mexican standoff of Tariffs here. If you thought prices were high now, Buckle up buttercup because it's about to get absolutely nuts in 2025. Inflation's about to go sky high. Curious what possible upside this trade war with Canada, Mexico, and China could possibly have from the this board's perspective.

The upside is leverage. I don’t anticipate any of these being long term.

 

[gcbvol]

Since he negotiated the last deal, I'm not sure:

A) why he wants to change it
B) why anyone on the other side would be believe he's negotiating in good faith and that deal reached would have any trustworthiness.

Seems like there is no reason to entertain new negotiations here for Canada or Mexico

I'm not a fan of tariffs. I think this is mostly a political move. He talked a lot about illegal immigration and drugs coming across the border during his campaign. I think this is his way of taking (or appearing to take) action.

I could be wrong, but I don't see this getting to the point where the consumer costs for any country get worse. They're likely already deep in negotiations behind the scenes. Canada, in particular, doesn't make much sense.

 

[BeardedVol]

I'm not a fan of tariffs. I think this is mostly a political move. He talked a lot about illegal immigration and drugs coming across the border during his campaign. I think this is his way of taking (or appearing to take) action.

I could be wrong, but I don't see this getting to the point where the consumer costs for any country get worse. They're likely already deep in negotiations behind the scenes. Canada, in particular, doesn't make much sense.

Tariff On Canada Not Justified By U.S. Immigration And Drug Claims

Evidence suggests that the justification for a 25 percent import tariff on Canadian goods and services does not hold up to scrutiny. Here is why.

www.forbes.com

Yeah I don't think there's any reality where one can honestly argue that ~24,000 border crossings and 43 lbs of fentanyl warrants a 25% tariff on imports, and destroying a long-standing alliance with a neighbor country.

 

[jmacvols1]

Business leaders want Canada to fight U.S. tariffs with tariffs

Eight in 10 are bracing for a recession but are prepared to endure “short-term pain” to negotiate a fair deal that protects Canadian interests

kpmg.com

 

[Orangeburst]

delete..not sure if that makes sense,

 

[BeardedVol]

Fact Check: Trump Said U.S. Subsidizes Canada With More Than $100M a Year — But He's Wrong

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump made the claim in a Dec. 18, 2024, Truth Social post.

www.yahoo.com

 

[exotic_vols]

The upside is leverage. I don’t anticipate any of these being long term.

I hope they don't because Trump has already threatened EU and BRICS (China, India, Russia, Brazil etc.) with tariffs. The US may have some leverage against each individual block but none against them all simultaneously. Disaster will be waiting if that happens. Also, I strongly disagree with applying so called "leverage" on our allies and friends. You resolve your disagreement with your friends and with your adversaries differently. I thought that was common sense.

 

[Vol8188]

I hope they don't because Trump has already threatened EU and BRICS (China, India, Russia, Brazil etc.) with tariffs. The US may have some leverage against each individual block but none against them all simultaneously. Disaster will be waiting if that happens. Also, I strongly disagree with applying so called "leverage" on our allies and friends. You resolve your disagreement with your friends and with your adversaries differently. I thought that was common sense.

let’s see how it plays out. Worked really well against Columbia. Russia is in no position to do anything right now. China we probably need tariffs against.

And I fully support pressure on Mexico to help with the border issue

 

[CagleMtnVol]

 

[Orangeburst]

again I am thinking these tariffs are double whammy for them if we charge in USDs..that is a ton more pesos. but I could be wrong.

 

[BeardedVol]

Leopards eating your face.

 

[Matt2496]

Leopards eating your face.
View attachment 719101
View attachment 719102
View attachment 719100

Needless to say, the market is going to be crazy to watch tomorrow.

 

[Matt2496]

This heavy-handed tariff policy may backfire big time. We shall see.

 

[Vol8188]

again I am thinking these tariffs are double whammy for them if we charge in USDs..that is a ton more pesos. but I could be wrong.

Tariffs are % based so the unit of measure doesn’t matter

 

[BeardedVol]

Needless to say, the market is going to be crazy to watch tomorrow.

Goldman Sachs: Sharp rise in short positions on U.S. stocks, market crash in sight?

Copyright © BusinessAMBE 2023 Key takeaways Short positions on U.S. stocks have risen sharply due to concerns about a possible market crash. Short positions outpaced long positions tenfold in...

www.marketscreener.com

 

[volfanhill]

This heavy-handed tariff policy may backfire big time. We shall see.

He assigns so much of his job to the market that I think the following will happen:

1.) Market tanks for a good period of time
2.) He kills this
3.) Claims victory bc of some minor concession from Canada, major concession from Mexico, and nothing from China. And major concessions from Mexico will be mostly turning people back at their entry points and fake concessions on drugs. Fake bc they can't make any guarantees when it comes to the cartels

 

[BeardedVol]

He assigns so much of his job to the market that I think the following will happen:

1.) Market tanks for a good period of time
2.) He kills this
3.) Claims victory bc of some minor concession from Canada, major concession from Mexico, and nothing from China. And major concessions from Mexico will be mostly turning people back at their entry points and fake concessions on drugs. Fake bc they can't make any guarantees when it comes to the cartels

The trade war with Canada lasted for a year last time, and did little other than cost American households.

Did Trump’s tariffs benefit American workers and national security?

www.brookings.edu

 

[volfanhill]

The trade war with Canada lasted for a year last time, and did little other than cost American households.

Did Trump’s tariffs benefit American workers and national security?

www.brookings.edu

Its dumb. But he will need something, however so minor, to claim victory with. He's not going to say “I was wrong.”

 

[Sgt_Nick_Fury]

 

[Sgt_Nick_Fury]

let’s see how it plays out. Worked really well against Columbia. Russia is in no position to do anything right now. China we probably need tariffs against.

And I fully support pressure on Mexico to help with the border issue

Tarrifs are tip of the iceberg with Mexico, this hasn't even started to get heated yet. The Mexican govt is a puppet organization for cartels. We are going after the cartels. That feud hasn't even really gotten started, the tarriffs are the least of it. In many ways the tarriffs are a litmus test to figure out who is who in DC and around the nation. Canada is being asked to get in line for what comes next. We'll see. But Canada depends on our finished goods, and agricultural products much more then we do theirs. We import more of their unfinished resources which will take longer to truly effect the prices on shelves. But yes alot of items will be going up down the road especially on construction and electronics.