TT, These International Panels are Killing Your Argument

#51
#51
BigPapaVol said:
I haven't seen any support that makes any sense for this assertion. If the supporters of making drastic change would quit trying to lump in every possible problem that could even remotely be plausible and just stick to the significant and provable issues, it would be a much easier debate.

I'm actually not against having the forum, figuring out the issues and addressing them if necessary. I just think the entire movement is damaged because of the very plain fanatical bias displayed by those carrying the message.

It's a little bit like having Orange Square as the only purveyor of info on the Vols.
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I agree a lot with this. Almost every other day (literally), I see Greenpeace reps at the T asking me, do you care about the planet, help us stop climate change. These guys are so off their rocker politically that I can't even stand to talk to them about climate change. I am generally knowledgeable on the subject (I would say more so than these volunteers trying to get money out of me) and love to have discussions about it - but I can't stand to talk to them. There are a lot of STUPID assertions thrown out about what could happen, and I agree sticking to discussing in real terms some of the more solid ones would be much more productive initially.

The problem with discussing droughts is that it is very, very complex. Warming will cause more water vapor to be in the atmosphere, increasing overall precipitation. However, there are two problems. 1) the heavier rains that will result will not lead to the same gains in soil moisture as less heavy rains (over more prolonged periods) and 2) not all areas will see these rains...some areas will dry, some areas will get wetter. It is extremely difficult to predict which areas will see drier weather and which will see wetter. The most recent models I have seen have the southwest getting wetter, the plains staying about the same, but with the upper plains into the mid-west getting drier. But, it is ridiculous to put any stock into those predictions at this point. I just wanted to offer a few points with regard to the more droughts argument....and why I think that it is shakier (than, say, rising sea levels).
 
#52
#52
TennTradition said:
I agree a lot with this. Almost every other day (literally), I see Greenpeace reps at the T asking me, do you care about the planet, help us stop climate change. These guys are so off their rocker politically that I can't even stand to talk to them about climate change. I am generally knowledgeable on the subject (I would say more so than these volunteers trying to get money out of me) and love to have discussions about it - but I can't stand to talk to them. There are a lot of STUPID assertions thrown out about what could happen, and I agree sticking to discussing in real terms some of the more solid ones would be much more productive initially.

The problem with discussing droughts is that it is very, very complex. Warming will cause more water vapor to be in the atmosphere, increasing overall precipitation. However, there are two problems. 1) the heavier rains that will result will not lead to the same gains in soil moisture as less heavy rains (over more prolonged periods) and 2) not all areas will see these rains...some areas will dry, some areas will get wetter. It is extremely difficult to predict which areas will see drier weather and which will see wetter. The most recent models I have seen have the southwest getting wetter, the plains staying about the same, but with the upper plains into the mid-west getting drier. But, it is ridiculous to put any stock into those predictions at this point. I just wanted to offer a few points with regard to the more droughts argument....and why I think that it is shakier (than, say, rising sea levels).
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What do the models predict about the southeast?
 
#53
#53
KB5252 said:
What do the models predict about the southeast?
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If I recall correctly (and for some reason I don't remember this area very well), I think that Tennessee was staying about the same...with East Tenn. getting a little wetter...and some drying elsewhere in the southeast...but not huge changes. But, as I said, the scientists who make these models assign a likelihood of these results (soil moisture change results - not temperature change results) that are comparable to a coin flip. They're trying to make them better - but right now, you might as well just grab a quarter.
 
#54
#54
This doesn't address the soil moisture issue (I'm at home today and don't have the folder I need in front of me to answer those questions as accurately as I would like), but this is a pretty good piece on where we currently stand on climate forecasting and understanding the risks. It isn't too detailed because it is from house testimony, but Ron Prinn is very level-headed in my opinion. And, the fact that he wasn't willing to accept attribution of warming to man for some time (until the models got more reliable) gives him even more credibility in my book...

Hearing Archives :Committee on Ways & Means :: U.S. House of Representatives :
 
#56
#56
westtnorangeman said:
You need to wake up and do a little reading and you will find out it is real
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You mean the climate changes? I am fully aware of this dynamic planet we live on. But I guess you mean it is real in the sense that man is responsible for it and if we continue we'll destroy our habitat? I am quite comfortable in regarding that as BS.
 
#58
#58
westtnorangeman said:
You need to wake up and do a little reading and you will find out it is real
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a similar amount of reading from a different set of equally qualified people will tell you that all of the stuff you asked him to read is simply a bunch of bunk.
 
#60
#60
allvol123 said:
You mean the climate changes? I am fully aware of this dynamic planet we live on. But I guess you mean it is real in the sense that man is responsible for it and if we continue we'll destroy our habitat? I am quite comfortable in regarding that as BS.
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BigPapaVol said:
a similar amount of reading from a different set of equally qualified people will tell you that all of the stuff you asked him to read is simply a bunch of bunk.
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With his/her post rate, you guys can expect a response next month. :)
 
#61
#61
BigPapaVol said:
a similar amount of reading from a different set of equally qualified people will tell you that all of the stuff you asked him to read is simply a bunch of bunk.
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Correction: A mixture of bunk and worthwhile stuff....however the nature of the bunk makes the worthwhile stuff impossible to sort out from the bunk with sufficient clarity at this time. At least, that's what I think those equally qualified but differing in opinion would say...roughly.
 
#62
#62
I am on the fence on global warming but to spend 45 trill on a concept that is unproven to many people is stupid.
 
#64
#64
TennTradition said:
Close your eyes...think of the sun...now think of turn around three times completely..now one half-turn....keep your eyes closed....do you see it?
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Yea its....its ........its a big picture of me cause its the coolest thing on earth:whistling:
 
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