Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning Lunardi Update

#1
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saintvol

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#1
Last 8 in are Colorado, Virginia, La Salle, Boise St. (this was before their loss last night), Iowa St., Temple, Villanova, and UT. First 4 out are Kentucky, Ole Miss, Maryland, Alabama. Next 4 out are Southern Miss, Baylor, Arizona St., Providence.

Loss last night pretty much eliminated Arkansas. Will be interesting to see how far Boise falls after their loss. It really seems to me that if we win the next 2 we have a good shot at getting in. Win one in the tourney and that should lock it up.
 
#2
#2
IMO, I don't see Maryland in the tournament. Strong start but really weak OOC schedule. Then they go into ACC play and are average at best. They have the win over Duke and NS State but hopefully UNC puts a beating on them. Iowa State and Temple are both dancing IMO.
 
#3
#3
Shaun1985 said:
IMO, I don't see Maryland in the tournament. Strong start but really weak OOC schedule. Then they go into ACC play and are average at best. They have the win over Duke and NS State but hopefully UNC puts a beating on them. Iowa State and Temple are both dancing IMO.
Click to expand...

If Iowa St. and Temple both win tonight, I agree. They lose and all bets are off. Iowa St. playing Oklahoma St. at home and Temple on the road at RPI 200+ Fordham. They lose that game they are in trouble.
 
#4
#4
Shaun1985 said:
Iowa Stateand Temple are both dancing IMO.
Click to expand...

What on these resumes makes you say Iowa state is in, but Vols have to win next 5?

TENNESSEE

RPI: 56
SOS: 36
OOC SOS: 36
Conf. SOS: 75
Good Wins: #6 Florida, #40 Wichita State
Bad Losses: #128 Georgia x 2
Last 10: 7-3
W/L 1-50: 2-3
W/L 51-100: 6-6
W/L 101-200: 3-2
W/L 201+: 6-0


IOWA STATE

RPI: 53
SOS: 62
OOC SOS: 173
Conf. SOS: 68
Good Wins: #18 Kansas State, #22 Oklahoma
Bad Losses: #126 Texas, #224 Texas Tech
Last 10: 5-5
W/L 1-50: 2-7
W/L 51-100: 3-1
W/L 101-200: 5-1
W/L 200+: 9-1
 
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#5
#5
bleedingTNorange said:
What on these resumes makes you say Iowa state is in, but Vols have to win next 5?

TENNESSEE

RPI: 56
SOS: 36
OOC SOS: 36
Conf. SOS: 75
Good Wins: #6 Florida, #40 Wichita State
Bad Losses: #128 Georgia x 2
Last 10: 7-3
W/L 1-50: 2-3
W/L 51-100: 6-6
W/L 101-200: 3-2
W/L 201+: 6-0


IOWA STATE

RPI: 53
SOS: 62
OOC SOS: 173
Conf. SOS: 68
Good Wins: #18 Kansas State, #22 Oklahoma
Bad Losses: #126 Texas, #224 Texas Tech
Last 10: 5-5
W/L 1-50: 2-7
W/L 51-100: 3-1
W/L 101-200: 5-1
W/L 200+: 9-1
Click to expand...


Wow, didn't know the resumes were that similar. Honestly, how can Lunardi look at that and put them in over us right now? They have us by 3 spots in the RPI, but we are equal to or better than them in every other category.
 
#6
#6
saintvol said:
Wow, didn't know the resumes were that similar. Honestly, how can Lunardi look at that and put them in over us right now? They have us by 3 spots in the RPI, but we are equal to or better than them in every other category.
Click to expand...

Total win, 19 for Iowa state, we are at 17, that's my guess. The wins is our biggest negative, hard to put a 17 win team in.
 
#7
#7
bleedingTNorange said:
Total win, 19 for Iowa state, we are at 17, that's my guess. The wins is our biggest negative, hard to put a 17 win team in.
Click to expand...

They will have played one more game than us when the regular season ends. Hopefully that is taken into consideration if they finish one game better.
 
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#9
#9
I can't remember a weaker bubble than this one. We could definitely do some damage if we got in, as could some of those other teams, but I still think this year's bubble is horrendous.
 
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#10
#10
B]GAMES OF INTEREST 3/6/13[/B]
team in bold is who you should be rooting FOR.

9pm TENNESSEE @ Auburn


7pm Oklahoma St. @ Iowa State
7pm North Carolina @ Maryland
7pm Georgetown @ Villanova
7pm Navy @ Bucknell
7pm Temple @ Fordham
7pm George Washinhton @ La Salle
9pm West Virginia @ Oklahoma
11pm Stanford @ Cal
 
#11
#11
bleedingTNorange said:
What on these resumes makes you say Iowa state is in, but Vols have to win next 5?

TENNESSEE

RPI: 56
SOS: 36
OOC SOS: 36
Conf. SOS: 75
Good Wins: #6 Florida, #40 Wichita State
Bad Losses: #128 Georgia x 2
Last 10: 7-3
W/L 1-50: 2-3
W/L 51-100: 6-6
W/L 101-200: 3-2
W/L 201+: 6-0


IOWA STATE

RPI: 53
SOS: 62
OOC SOS: 173
Conf. SOS: 68
Good Wins: #18 Kansas State, #22 Oklahoma
Bad Losses: #126 Texas, #224 Texas Tech
Last 10: 5-5
W/L 1-50: 2-7
W/L 51-100: 3-1
W/L 101-200: 5-1
W/L 200+: 9-1
Click to expand...

If today was Selection Sunday, and the committee had those 2 resumes to choose from, I honestly think they would take UT over ISU.
 
#12
#12
bleedingTNorange said:
What on these resumes makes you say Iowa state is in, but Vols have to win next 5?

TENNESSEE

RPI: 56
SOS: 36
OOC SOS: 36
Conf. SOS: 75
Good Wins: #6 Florida, #40 Wichita State
Bad Losses: #128 Georgia x 2
Last 10: 7-3
W/L 1-50: 2-3
W/L 51-100: 6-6
W/L 101-200: 3-2
W/L 201+: 6-0


IOWA STATE

RPI: 53
SOS: 62
OOC SOS: 173
Conf. SOS: 68
Good Wins: #18 Kansas State, #22 Oklahoma
Bad Losses: #126 Texas, #224 Texas Tech
Last 10: 5-5
W/L 1-50: 2-7
W/L 51-100: 3-1
W/L 101-200: 5-1
W/L 200+: 9-1
Click to expand...

They are 17-3 in those games

We are 15-8

They win 85% of their games vs the teams that they should beat. We only won 65% of those. That's a big deal when determining the last few teams of who's in and out.
 
#13
#13
utfan72408 said:
I can't remember a weaker bubble than this one. We could definitely do some damage if we got in, as could some of those other teams, but I still think this year's bubble is horrendous.
Click to expand...

On the flip side, we could get beat big time. This team is schizophrenic. Especially away from home.
 
#14
#14
JMSqb11 said:
They are 17-3 in those games

We are 15-8

They win 85% of their games vs the teams that they should beat. We only won 65% of those. That's a big deal when determining the last few teams of who's in and out.
Click to expand...

You also have to consider they have a padded win total with almost half of their wins coming against teams with a 200+ RPI. Plus, that 200+ RPI loss would have a huge negative effect, imo.
 
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#15
#15
JMSqb11 said:
On the flip side, we could get beat big time. This team is schizophrenic. Especially away from home.
Click to expand...

So is almost every team this year, though. Especially the bubble teams.

The thing people forget about the NCAA Tournament is that EVERY team is away from home. So in my opinion that won't come into play.

I'm more worried about getting into the Dance. Once we're there, we'll have nothing to lose.
 
#16
#16
JMSqb11 said:
They are 17-3 in those games

We are 15-8

They win 85% of their games vs the teams that they should beat. We only won 65% of those. That's a big deal when determining the last few teams of who's in and out.
Click to expand...

Very true, and good points. It's why Tennessee winning the next 2 is huge, it's unlikely Iowa State or many other bubble teams will win their next 2.
 
#17
#17
JMSqb11 said:
They are 17-3 in those games

We are 15-8

They win 85% of their games vs the teams that they should beat. We only won 65% of those. That's a big deal when determining the last few teams of who's in and out.
Click to expand...

The biggest difference is in games vs 51-100 teams. We have played 12 games in that range vs ISU's 4. It can be debated as to whether those teams in that range are "teams you should beat", especially games on the road in this category.

ISU's resume is padded with sub-100 teams which increase their total wins, and their winning % that you quoted. Tennessee is 9-2 vs sub-100 teams. ISU is 14-2. I would argue that those are the teams you are supposed to beat. Conversely, Tennessee is 8-9 vs top-100 teams, while ISU is 5-8.

SOS is going to play a big role, and ISU might pile up a bunch of wins vs inferior teams, but Tennessee has played a far stronger schedule and managed to beat the majority of teams they should have.
 
#18
#18
bleedingTNorange said:
B]GAMES OF INTEREST 3/6/13[/B]
team in bold is who you should be rooting FOR.

9pm TENNESSEE @ Auburn


7pm Oklahoma St. @ Iowa State
7pm North Carolina @ Maryland
7pm Georgetown @ Villanova
7pm Navy @ Bucknell
7pm Temple @ Fordham
7pm George Washinhton @ La Salle
9pm West Virginia @ Oklahoma
11pm Stanford @ Cal
Click to expand...

Thanks for this! Ark & Bummer losing last nt helped.
 
#19
#19
bleedingTNorange said:
B]GAMES OF INTEREST 3/6/13[/B]
team in bold is who you should be rooting FOR.

9pm TENNESSEE @ Auburn


7pm Oklahoma St. @ Iowa State
7pm North Carolina @ Maryland
7pm Georgetown @ Villanova
7pm Navy @ Bucknell
7pm Temple @ Fordham
7pm George Washinhton @ La Salle
9pm West Virginia @ Oklahoma
11pm Stanford @ Cal
Click to expand...

Add
Vandy vs. FL
Xavier vs. St. Louis
 
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