I'll be shocked if Cal is fired, to be honest. It simply isn't financially responsible to fire him because it was never financially responsible to give him a lifetime contract.
Let's assume they're willing to spend $10 million/yr on the coach they want. You'll most likely have to give a new coach a 6-yr deal, so that is $60 million. Then you owe Cal $34 million. Then, unless you're hiring Donovan or Jay Wright (unlikely), you're probably on the hook for that coach's buyout. Bruce Pearl's buyout, for example, is $17,450,000 until April 1st. After that, it presumably drops, not sure how much. Let's say it drops to a likely conservative round figure of $12 million.
It will cost UK $106 million dollars over 6 years to bring in someone else who they HOPE will be more successful.
Now, what coach is essentially worth $17.6 mil/yr to bring in and replace Cal?
Additionally, you'll be firing and hiring a new AD if Cal is fired. Barnhart and Cal are intrinsically tied to each other thanks to the details of the contract. If Cal takes the fall, Mitch goes with him soon after.
There is offset language in Cal's contract that stipulate he make reasonable effort to obtain employment, but who knows how that will be enforced. It could, in theory reduce UK's financial burden, but not entirely unless Cal lands another high profile job without taking a pay cut, which isn't likely.