USC and UCLA to leave Pac 12 for Big Ten

[RDU VOL#14]

I see ND as a dinosaur that's just held on longer than Yale or Army. With NIL drastically changing how players look at recruiting, walking past ancient pictures of ND glory isn't as exciting as it used to be.

Do they still bring eyeballs? Yeah, lots of them currently, but they're consistently overrated and underperforming. Do they still recruit well? Very. Do they win the big ones with those recruits? Very rarely.

ND is like GA was for decades: great recruiting and subpar performance based on that recruiting. When's the last time they won it all??? Mid 80s?

They've worshipped their independence like it was a relic....... let them die on that hill.

Looking at their current recruiting ranking says that they are still very relevant.

 

[Velo Vol]

Texas, USC, Oklahoma, and UCLA were game changers. Texas and USC bring market and following. Oklahoma bring a devout following. UCLA is the other large brand in the 2nd biggest market in the country.

UCLA is a great addition by itself. It's not nearly as big a TV prize if you have already have the LA market with USC. It's a bit mysterious why the Big 10 went for both rather than someone else.

 

[Velo Vol]

Eventually some of these super conferences will get rid of the rubbish teams.

Are they? Do you want to be in a conference where your scheduled is Georgia, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, LSU, Alabama, etc.?

 

[MAD]

Are they? Do you want to be in a conference where your scheduled is Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, LSU, Alabama, etc.?

FYP

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

Looking at their current recruiting ranking says that they are still very relevant.

Relevant for eyeballs? Yes.

For success in football? Like GA or MI, once every decade or so.

In that, they're a steal for tOSU to have added to the B1G. Another legacy program to beat the brakes off almost every year.

 

[MAD]

 

[UTwild82]

UCLA is a great addition by itself. It's not nearly as big a TV prize if you have already have the LA market with USC. It's a bit mysterious why the Big 10 went for both rather than someone else.

My guess is it was a take a look at both of us type situation OR the B1G didn't want another conference in LA.

 

[UTwild82]

I see ND as a dinosaur that's just held on longer than Yale or Army. With NIL drastically changing how players look at recruiting, walking past ancient pictures of ND glory isn't as exciting as it used to be.

Do they still bring eyeballs? Yeah, lots of them currently, but they're consistently overrated and underperforming. Do they still recruit well? Very. Do they win the big ones with those recruits? Very rarely.

ND is like GA was for decades: great recruiting and subpar performance based on that recruiting. When's the last time they won it all??? Mid 80s?

They've worshipped their independence like it was a relic....... let them die on that hill.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but in the TV arms race that bolded part is all that matters. It's why the Cowboys, who haven't been relevant in decades, are still the most valuable franchise in sports.

 

[wmcovol]

I'm curious. Do you think aTm would allow Texas in the SEC?

Yeah, it's not really something FL can block.

Yeah Sankey $hit all over that “agreement” when aTm got the shaft.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but in the TV arms race that bolded part is all that matters. It's why the Cowboys, who haven't been relevant in decades, are still the most valuable franchise in sports.

Agreed, but I don't see ND remaining relevant in the eyeball category after they join the B1G or SEC. Their best bet has been to flirt with the ACC where they can win some games but the ACC, B12, and P12 are quickly becoming food for the coming "super conferences."

They're a good get for Fox but that's it.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

Yeah Sankey $hit all over that “agreement” when aTm got the shaft.

There' no "gentlemen's agreements" when no gentlemen are present.

And when it comes to high level sports the old adage used to be "Nice guys finish last." The reality is "Nice guys get shanked on the way to the starting line."

 

[SpookyAction]

Clemson and FSU have been in contact with the SEC for years. The issue is their footprint is already covered by current members. They just don't add enough to a TV contract. People forget this is a business and not a charity. They just can't get a spot in the SEC so they won't get left out. Some people will point out Texas was a duplicate market with Texas A&M and they were still admitted. Texas is the 2nd most powerful brand in college sports behind Notre Dame--normal rules don't apply. Clemson and FSU are no Texas--not even close. Its Big Ten or bust for Clemson/FSU.

The only schools that are worth it for SEC (and not in the Big Ten) are Notre Dame, UVA/Virginia Tech (one not both) and UNC.

Eventually some of these super conferences will get rid of the rubbish teams.

Watch for the SEC to cut teams that reduce value in a TV megadeal.

It is going to come down to who carries their weight. Watch out for the SEC to clean the dead weight out.
Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and MissSt, would be wise to keep their ears to the ground and be wary.
They do not carry their slots for viewer in a TV mega deal. None of those three command a viewing market advertiser are interested in reaching.
Arkansas and South Carolina are on the edge. USCe stays in because of its proximity to the North Carolina. Arkansas is pretty marginal, but has a metro area. Ole Miss, MissSt, and Vandy bring nothing.
Watch for the SEC to possibly reduce and replace these three Universities.

If this did happen, Vandy makes sense for the ACC, and the Mississippi schools make good sense for the Big 12. I doubt they have the academic standards to be acceptable to the ACC.

Clemson and FSU bring no revenue advantage to the SEC. Neither do Duke, GaTech, or Miami.
VaTech can bring the Richmond/DC metro. They are preferable to UVA, because UVA doesn't fit culturally.
UNC brings the the huge Asheville metro markets. NcSt is the higher viewersip in eastern NC. NC has a population of 10 million, so both school in the SEC makes sense financially. The challenge here is the B1G is going to want UNC as well. They have the high academic standards of the B1G, so there will be a turf war for UNC between the SEC, ACC, and B1G. If UNC goes to the B1G, then NcSt does make sense.

OkSt brings zero tv value, so No. Plus, screw Mike Gundy.
I don't think any Big 12 school brings enough viewing power to justify their addition. WVa wants in , but they bring little value, as shown when they were passed over in the last SEC expansion.

 

[zydane47]

Watch for the SEC to cut teams that reduce value in a TV megadeal.

It is going to come down to who carries their weight. Watch out for the SEC to clean the dead weight out.
Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and MissSt, would be wise to keep their ears to the ground and be wary.
They do not carry their slots for viewer in a TV mega deal. None of those three command a viewing market advertiser are interested in reaching.
Arkansas and South Carolina are on the edge. USCe stays in because of its proximity to the North Carolina. Arkansas is pretty marginal, but has a metro area. Ole Miss, MissSt, and Vandy bring nothing.
Watch for the SEC to possibly reduce and replace these three Universities.

If this did happen, Vandy makes sense for the ACC, and the Mississippi schools make good sense for the Big 12. I doubt they have the academic standards to be acceptable to the ACC.

Clemson and FSU bring no revenue advantage to the SEC. Neither do Duke, GaTech, or Miami.
VaTech can bring the Richmond/DC metro. They are preferable to UVA, because UVA doesn't fit culturally.
UNC brings the the huge Asheville metro markets. NcSt is the higher viewersip in eastern NC. NC has a population of 10 million, so both school in the SEC makes sense financially. The challenge here is the B1G is going to want UNC as well. They have the high academic standards of the B1G, so there will be a turf war for UNC between the SEC, ACC, and B1G. If UNC goes to the B1G, then NcSt does make sense.

OkSt brings zero tv value, so No. Plus, screw Mike Gundy.
I don't think any Big 12 school brings enough viewing power to justify their addition. WVa wants in , but they bring little value, as shown when they were passed over in the last SEC expansion.

Hahahahahaha the SEC will not kick any original members, especially the previous two CWS winners, and one who lost to one of the said previous winners in the CWS.

 

[TrueOrange]

Eventually some of these super conferences will get rid of the rubbish teams.

You’ve already been seeing the beginnings of it. And with the way the rest of the schools are advertising themselves, they’re all also aware and no one wants to be stuck left behind. The Big 10 and SEC aren’t going to take in the entirety of these 3 conferences. There are going to be lower market or lower revenue or smaller brand schools that are going to get left behind (and have mostly stayed relevant as members because they founded their conference).

There are more obvious ones - like the Oregon State, Wake Forest, Baylor, Washington State type schools - but right now there is fear and uncertainty among many of the schools on the outside about where exactly that line dividing the future haves and have nots will exactly fall. And that line will likely be the difference between hundreds of millions of dollars over the long run.

 

[VOLnMiami]

I'm curious. Do you think aTm would allow Texas in the SEC?

Yeah, it's not really something FL can block.

It's pretty obvious the SEC pressured A&M into letting Texas in...I mean they are TEXAS...Big big money there...FSU isn't even close....Not to mention the SEC offered them years ago and they turned us down so theres that.

 

[wmcovol]

No they don’t

Don’t stop him, he’s on a roll

 

[Delmar]

It's pretty obvious the SEC pressured A&M into letting Texas in...I mean they are TEXAS...Big big money there...FSU isn't even close....Not to mention the SEC offered them years ago and they turned us down so theres that.

Yep. Bobby Bowden wanted no part of the SEC.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

It's pretty obvious the SEC pressured A&M into letting Texas in...I mean they are TEXAS...Big big money there...FSU isn't even close....Not to mention the SEC offered them years ago and they turned us down so theres that.

Looking, neither Miami nor FSU are AAU, which apparently still matters to the B1G so I will agree there's no need to worry about the B1G coming into FL. Only the University of Florida is in the AAU in the state and they're not leaving the SEC.

So yeah, I'll concede we don't need them in SEC.

As long as the B1G holds to the AAU requirement, the only schools the SEC might contest against them are UVa and NC and I guess Duke (which is probably a package deal with NC.)

As I look at it again, I think Oregon and Washington somehow have to convince the B1G they're more valuable than Cal and Stanford overall. I've little knowledge of the TV market differences but my gut tells me more B1G alumni are probably in the Bay Area than in the Northwest.

I feel a little sorry for the OkSU, BYU, all the also ran Texas schools, Utah, Cincinnati, etc..... schools that have some football success but I just can't see them having markets that a super conference would want. Maybe huge NIL money can overcome "second tier" TV exposure, but I think recruiting is going to be uphill all the way if you're not in the SEC, B1G, and..... for a few years..... ACC.

 

[SpookyAction]

Hahahahahaha the SEC will not kick any original members, especially the previous two CWS winners, and one who lost to one of the said previous winners in the CWS.

We'll see. They actually cost the conference money. Loyalty only goes so far.
We'll know within a couple of years, I think.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

We'll see. They actually cost the conference money. Loyalty only goes so far.
We'll know within a couple of years, I think.

Vandy is a founding member of the SEC. Should they leave like GaTech, Tulane, and Sewanee did? Perhaps, but those schools left voluntarily.

I'm as cynical as anyone on VN but Vandy has earned the right over almost 90 years to ride for free.

Mizzou..... let the B1G carry them, if they wish, but they were never a good fit for the SEC. Ditch 'em.

 

[wmcovol]

I do think it’s in the SECs best interest to keep B10 from taking two Florida teams (fSU & Miami). I’d take those 2 & offer Clemson & Va Tech if they want to come. If Va Tech passes cause of Va, I’d take Clem & WVU. That would be 20 teams. Two 10 team divisions.

If the end game is 20 or more teams, why do away with divisions. You’ll never get to home & away vs every member in a 4 yr span unless you go to 10 conference games. Hell, much of the SEC only wants 8 now.

 

[LouderVol]

No one watches Pac 12 football.

Even without USC and UCLA more people watch the PAC than the ACC.

 

[LouderVol]

So if you were the Big 10 commissioner you would’ve chosen Oregon instead of USC and UCLA to expand the conference?

Yeah, probably.

It would be interesting to see their viewership over their more recent history. Oregon has also been thru a good number of coaches but has maintained some level of success that USC hasnt been able to.

 

[SpookyAction]

Vandy is a founding member of the SEC. Should they leave like GaTech, Tulane, and Sewanee did? Perhaps, but those schools left voluntarily.

I'm as cynical as anyone on VN but Vandy has earned the right over almost 90 years to ride for free.

Mizzou..... let the B1G carry them, if they wish, but they were never a good fit for the SEC. Ditch 'em.

We are talking about 9 figure annual payouts from the TV deals. If the other 11 or 12 (14 soon) members schools see plans to increase the payout further by cutting teams that provide zero tv ratings in exchange for high ratings schools, like UNC, NcSt, and VaTech, expect throats to be cut.
You may be right, but don't be shocked if I am.

 

[Sudden Impact]

I do think it’s in the SECs best interest to keep B10 from taking two Florida teams (fSU & Miami). I’d take those 2 & offer Clemson & Va Tech if they want to come. If Va Tech passes cause of Va, I’d take Clem & WVU. That would be 20 teams. Two 10 team divisions.

If the end game is 20 or more teams, why do away with divisions. You’ll never get to home & away vs every member in a 4 yr span unless you go to 10 conference games. Hell, much of the SEC only wants 8 now.

There are a ton of Changes that will evolve in the move to 2-24 Team Power 5 Conferences.

Questions Below

# Total number of Season Games Increase
# Total number of Conference Games
# Number of Playoff Teams
# Out of Conference games Restricted to the other Power 5 Conference teams.
# Division Set up Like NFL 4 - 6 Team Divisions or 6 - 4 Team Divisions
# Conference Championship Games

NIL Team Caps, Transfer Portal Management, The list goes on and on.

A lot of Questions to be Answered but I see the construction of the 2 Conferences following the Structure of the NFL or at least very Similar to it.

All completely Void of the NCAA who would not have the ability to manage it.