Utah State Recruiting Rankings 2011-2014

#26
#26
VolnJC said:
Utah State Recruiting Rankings
2014 114
2013 93
2012 123
2011 97

Keeton was a three star from 2011
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Come on. You know that recruiting rankings only really matter when they can be used as a reason (excuse) for UT not beating someone. So... UT is always overrated due to attrition or busts or whatever while every opponent below them is underrated because they found all those diamonds in the rough...

Make sure to remember this RULE of the BOARD any time you're discussing recruiting rankings.
 
#29
#29
sjt18 said:
Thanks again daj2576

Your work is much appreciated.:hi:
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Most welcome.

Here is a graphic I intended to include in my last post.

USU 13.jpg

It strikes me that it is possible that all of the love that USU gets is really because they play teams that are the least talented in all of the FBS.

The scary thing is that this USU team is the second least talented team we will face all season. First games are always odd beasts, but our season will get very long should UT not ultimately be able to overcome this team.
 
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#32
#32
thebjd said:
Better than the last two. Murray was pretty darn good.
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Better than Shaw? Not even remotely close. Shaw was a great QB who had ice in his veins. Keaton cannot even be mentioned in the same universe as Murray. He may be a better passer than Marshall but as a runner they are even.
 
#33
#33
VolnJC said:
no doubt..just see what Boise did all those years with system vs star recruits..USU also outplayed Auburn who without a doubt had better athletes.
I think the best thing you can do to this type of team is to line up and keep it simple like Miami did in the 80s..frustrate them and get them tired
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yes they did outplay a horrendous Auburn team led by Chizik that was Malzahnless,
 
#35
#35
USU is replacing almost all of their secondary. Their QB is coming off of a torn ACL. We have had MUCH better recruiting classes and we have MUCH more talent.
 
#36
#36
TBtheGBwiththeTD said:
Someone on twitter said Keeton is a better QB than: Aaron Murray, Nick Marshall, and Connor Shaw.

Thoughts?
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I'll take Connor Shaw over any of them he has guts and determination to will his team to victory. I'll take a healthy Murray over Keeton too but not by as much.
 
#40
#40
thebjd said:
Better than the last two. Murray was pretty darn good.
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Your a great guy but there's no way to reasonably argue that Keeton is better than any of the 3. His results vs major opponents have not been all that great... but that is mitigated by the fact that he isn't surrounded by enough good players. His stats are gaudy against lower competition... but that's to be expected of a good QB against weak competition.
 
#41
#41
daj2576 said:
from my blog, comparing USU to UT last year:

"Using recruiting evaluations as a guide, the mighty Utah State Aggies should have only won 4 games, but they won 9 including a bowl game against Northern Illinois (91). However, the best team that they beat, viewed through a talent lens, was no better than 80th (Hawaii). Their worst loss also came against a team ranked about 80th (Fresno State). Importantly, Utah State's average Division 1 caliber win came against an opponent who was roughly ranked 93rd. Their average loss came against a team ranked 48.6.

For comparison, Tennessee should have won 7 games, but won 5. The Vol's best win came against a South Carolina team ranked about 18th using recruiting evaluations, and the worst loss came against a Vandy team ranked about 48th. UT's average Division 1 caliber win was against a team ranked 51, and Tennessee's average loss came against a team ranked 16.6.

In other words, Utah State's best win came against a team ranked 32 rungs below Tennessee's worst loss. Imagine trying to climb a ladder that is missing 32 rungs between what you are capable of on your best day, to what your opponent is capable of on their worst.

Or for a little different sort of comparison, Tennessee average loss came against teams that are built like Oregon, Texas A&M, or UCLA (those teams fall around the 16 ranking in class averages) whereas Utah State averaged losing to teams built like Kentucky, Kansas, and North Carolina State."

excerpt from If I Bleed Orange, I'm Bled Out: Don't Sweat Utah State.
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Just curious, do you just look at class rankings or do you adjust for attrition?
 
#42
#42
BigOrangeTrain said:
USU is replacing almost all of their secondary. Their QB is coming off of a torn ACL. We have had MUCH better recruiting classes and we have MUCH more talent.
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Replace 2 of 3 starting DL's from this time last year, 2 of 4 LB's, 3 of 4 DB's, 4 of 5 OL's, top 2 WR's, and top rusher though the guy they have has been a starter.
 
#43
#43
ptclaus98 said:
Just curious, do you just look at class rankings or do you adjust for attrition?
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Very common question.

No I don't adjust for attrition for two reasons. First, the prediction rate is around 70% without adjusting. Second, when I ran a sample adjusting for attrition, the changes were extremely slight and rarely accounted for a change in predictions.

Bottom line: most teams suffer from a similar rate of attrition, you just pay more attention to one team than others
 
#47
#47
daj2576 said:
Very common question.

No I don't adjust for attrition for two reasons. First, the prediction rate is around 70% without adjusting. Second, when I ran a sample adjusting for attrition, the changes were extremely slight and rarely accounted for a change in predictions.

Bottom line: most teams suffer from a similar rate of attrition, you just pay more attention to one team than others
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Yeah but did you measure teams like Utah St when you did that sample? The good mid majors all seem to have great retention among their classes. Also, did you measure just the quantity of players leaving or did you measure the quality as well?
 
#49
#49
No doubt statistics can rationalize any position. If the statistical comparisons regarding recruiting lists are correct, the then the Vols should win. However, we all know that star ratings are overrated. We all know the stories of the 3* who actually is a 5* when it is all said and done. Is Chuckie Keeton one of those? The only true star ratings would be to re-rank all classes after four years and then compare them to each other. Then the comparison would be a better representation. But still only a representation. There are the intangibles such as coaching and the human factor which changes from game to game and sometimes painfully. Can the Vols contain the relatively few (if statistics are right) high caliber players that USU has? Will the Vols come out physical and not emotional like Coach Jones warns? Will USU stay calm in a crowd of 102,455? Will Vol seniors lead? Will the game get down to a matter of inches? This is the beginning of my 47th season to attend Vol games and I'm not sure I can remember a season with as many unknowns at the start of the season as this one. While I'm very hyped about the prospects, Team 118 is a true unknown.
 
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