Vanderbilt Commodores (49.9)
I swear, we've got nothing against the Commodores, we really don't. It's just that season after season, Kevin Stallings puts together big, sharpshooting teams designed to play well enough in the SEC that Vandy makes the NCAA tournament. Season after season, the strategy works -- but our model notices the Commodores' problems with turnovers and rebounding, and predicts early-round trouble. And season after season, Vanderbilt obliges -- with crushing losses to Siena in 2008, Murray State in 2010 and Richmond in 2011. All the key players are back this season, and the results are looking mighty similar.
Key stats: The Commodores turn the ball over on 20.4 percent of possessions (ranking 174th in the NCAA), partly because they allow steals on 11 percent of possessions (290th). They force turnovers on just 19.2 percent of opponent possessions (231st), allow opponents to grab offensive rebounds on 32.8 of missed shots (204th), and surrender blocks on 11.4 percent of shots (308th).