Very concerned over agricultural outlook. We all should be.

[agVOL90]

I have been involved in production agriculture, agri-business and commodity investing for most of my life. I have never experienced as much uncertainty regarding the short and long term prospects of the industry of agriculture in my life.

The costs projected for this coming year will have a devastating impact on almost every segment of agriculture. Fertilizer, seed, chemical and mechanical inputs are in some cases approaching a 300% increase in price and that is if you can even begin to source them. I know multiple farmers who have made the determination that planting corn or soybeans will be useless as there is no pathway to profitability.

There are producers who have equipment that has been idle for over a year while they are waiting on parts with no set delivery date. Small and medium sized farms especially are vulnerable because there often are no pieces of equipment on the bench that can be pressed into service as backups.

The average age of the American Farmer is increasing at a startling rate and the high costs and debtload are keeping the current generation from passing the farms onto the next in far too many instances.

This nation is facing what seems like a myriad of issues but I tell you now, the uncertainty around the future of our food production might be the most impactful.

 

[golfballs]

Wonder why costs are so high

 

[BenGrimm]

Just read an article yesterday that demand for corn and soybean exports is way up.

I don’t doubt what you are saying. I’m not close to it in anyway. Equipment part shortages makes sense as that is happening in pretty much every sector.

 

[agVOL90]

Wonder why costs are so high

A lot of it is geo political. There is a worldwide shortage of fertilizer due to China and Russia cutting off export and the ripples have reached here. Parts for most agricultural equipment are produced almost exclusively overseas now and there are shipping containers full of them setting on cargo ships off the west coast waiting on our distribution systems to get over constipation. Agri-chemicals have been made so taboo and over regulated that the cost of production has skyrocketed. Spring 2022 China will have either stored or under contract nearly 75% of all of the corn, soybeans and rice in the world.

Why would they be hoarding so much of the world's food supply? What do they know?

 

[walkenvol]

Personally, I like to see us get away from huge corporate farming returning to smaller family agriculture. If food prices continue to rise maybe more small guys can be profitable with smaller operations. There’s a huge interest in organic and local grown produce which is better for communities IMO.

There’s a local family farm to me that grows strawberries that are organic and 100x tastier than the offerings in our grocery stores. Check their website each morning to verify they’re stocked that day and if so the cars are lined up 50 deep waiting for them to open. Seems like that model could work for all local type produce

 

[agVOL90]

Personally, I like to see us get away from huge corporate farming returning to smaller family agriculture. If food prices continue to rise maybe more small guys can be profitable with smaller operations. There’s a huge interest in organic and local grown produce which is better for communities IMO.

There’s a local family farm to me that grows strawberries that are organic and 100x tastier than the offerings in our grocery stores. Check their website each morning to verify they’re stocked that day and if so the cars are lined up 50 deep waiting for them to open. Seems like that model could work for all local type produce

As nice as that sounds, it is not possible to feed the population of this nation much less the nearly 8 billion people worldwide via small scale agriculture. I am a family farmer, i could feed my family and lots of others but that system is not capable of providing even a small percentage of what is necessary.

 

[YankeeVol]

Personally, I like to see us get away from huge corporate farming returning to smaller family agriculture. If food prices continue to rise maybe more small guys can be profitable with smaller operations. There’s a huge interest in organic and local grown produce which is better for communities IMO.

There’s a local family farm to me that grows strawberries that are organic and 100x tastier than the offerings in our grocery stores. Check their website each morning to verify they’re stocked that day and if so the cars are lined up 50 deep waiting for them to open. Seems like that model could work for all local type produce

Will never happen

 

[walkenvol]

As nice as that sounds, it is not possible to feed the population of this nation much less the nearly 8 billion people worldwide via small scale agriculture. I am a family farmer, i could feed my family and lots of others but that system is not capable of providing even a small percentage of what is necessary.

If you don’t care, what do you grow and on how much acreage?

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

The average age of the American Farmer is increasing at a startling rate and the high cists and debtload is keeping the current generation from passing the farms onto the next in far too many instances.

And if those things weren't working against you, this surely will...

America's Family Owned Farms Now Face the Greatest Threat to Their Existence — Lonesome Lands

The “unfortunate” part of Biden’s proposed tax plan is the elimination of the, stepped-up basis. The stepped-up basis has been used for all inheritance for generations. How it works, is when property is inherited, it doesn’t matter what the dead person paid for it, the value is stepped-up to what it is worth at the time of the death. This allows the person who is inheriting the property to show no gain in income from the inheritance.

Biden’s tax plan would remove the stepped-up basis. According to the Forbes article, Biden’s Tax Increase On Death That No One Is Talking About, “Biden's tax plan calls for carrying over an asset’s tax basis from the the decedent to the next generation. No amount of estate tax exemption would help you, because this is a big income tax increase.” That income tax increase would destroy practically all small family run farms, because it would simply be too much to pay without selling out.

 

[walkenvol]

Will never happen

Maybe not, but the produce I grow in my back yard is way better tasting than anything available at Publix and I suspect much better for me as I don’t use any chemicals or petroleum based fertilizer. Would love to see more young people with a heart for agriculture farm similarly on a larger scale to feed locally as much as possible. JMO and as you said maybe it’s not possible at today’s food prices.

 

[agVOL90]

If you don’t care, what do you grow and on how much acreage?

We are a beef operation primarily. Produce alfalfa hay that is primarily sold to out of state dairy operations. We are a shadow of what we used to be as far as being a productive farm,. We were one of the first grade A dairy farms in East Tennessee a few generations back. We own about 300 acres but we used to lease and farm considerably more than that.

 

[sunnyvol79]

Younger people just aren’t getting into farming

 

[walkenvol]

I was doing some work in Sweetwater a couple years back and learned from a local dairy farmer that all their milk went to Mayfield. I had always assumed Mayfield had some huge dairy farms but it appeared they sourced a large portion of their products from private family dairy farms?

 

[walkenvol]

Younger people just aren’t getting into farming

Appears there are plenty of younger illegals in farming work. Somehow the pricing structure needs to be such that smaller farmers and farm workers can make a livable wage.

What profession is really more important than farming?

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I was doing some work in Sweetwater a couple years back and learned from a local dairy farmer that all their milk went to Mayfield. I had always assumed Mayfield had some huge dairy farms but it appeared they sourced a large portion of their products from private family dairy farms?

I guess this surprised you more than me. I just assumed that they generally got their milk from local farms, but I wasn't certain.

 

[Firebirdparts]

I was doing some work in Sweetwater a couple years back and learned from a local dairy farmer that all their milk went to Mayfield. I had always assumed Mayfield had some huge dairy farms but it appeared they sourced a large portion of their products from private family dairy farms?

I’ve never heard of a corporation like mayfield operating a dairy. FWIW

To the subject at hand, there is a major energy crisis in progress that primarily affects natural gas in Europe. Fertilizer starts with ammonia which is made from natural gas. There is going to be a big price spike here and in fact it already occurred .

We’ve kinda been lured into a false sense of security, and honestly I’m surprised it cruised along as smoothly as it did. It takes work to meet human needs. You won’t meet too many people that expect that to be the case.

 

[Go aeiou]

Maybe not, but the produce I grow in my back yard is way better tasting than anything available at Publix and I suspect much better for me as I don’t use any chemicals or petroleum based fertilizer. Would love to see more young people with a heart for agriculture farm similarly on a larger scale to feed locally as much as possible. JMO and as you said maybe it’s not possible at today’s food prices.

I suspect the fruit and vegetables in the produce section of a grocery are produced with a 3 D Printer. They look like vegetables, but the taste just isn't there.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

And if those things weren't working against you, this surely will...

America's Family Owned Farms Now Face the Greatest Threat to Their Existence — Lonesome Lands

The “unfortunate” part of Biden’s proposed tax plan is the elimination of the, stepped-up basis. The stepped-up basis has been used for all inheritance for generations. How it works, is when property is inherited, it doesn’t matter what the dead person paid for it, the value is stepped-up to what it is worth at the time of the death. This allows the person who is inheriting the property to show no gain in income from the inheritance.

Biden’s tax plan would remove the stepped-up basis. According to the Forbes article, Biden’s Tax Increase On Death That No One Is Talking About, “Biden's tax plan calls for carrying over an asset’s tax basis from the the decedent to the next generation. No amount of estate tax exemption would help you, because this is a big income tax increase.” That income tax increase would destroy practically all small family run farms, because it would simply be too much to pay without selling out.

If I’m understanding this correctly, eliminating the stepped up basis only affects those heirs that want to sell off their farms. If they want to continue farming their land the gains remain untaxed as the property is passed on to each subsequent generation.

The disastrous part of Biden’s plan would be reducing the exemption on gift/inheritance taxes. It has been $11.7 million per spouse, so a husband and wife can pass a $23.4 million farm or business on to their heirs free of the death tax liability. But if he is able to reduce the exclusion to $1,000,000 then a lot of $4,000,000 farms and businesses will be affected as tax bills approaching $1,000,000 (at 40%) will come due.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I wish that gardening would take over suburban lawns. Also, putting solar panels on roofs everywhere. Maybe the upcoming generations can embrace those simple concepts and importing so many useless, landfill bound Chinese chotskies from Walmart and the dollar store will go out of favor. And more farmer’s markets and less Krogering.

 

[feathersax]

I suspect the fruit and vegetables in the produce section of a grocery are produced with a 3 D Printer. They look like vegetables, but the taste just isn't there.

Excellent examle: strawberries. Growing up we grew strawberries in our backyard garden. Small, sweet, juicy & Mother made the best preserves ever. The "giant" strawberries found in the supermarkets don't compare in taste.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Excellent examle: strawberries. Growing up we grew strawberries in our backyard garden. Small, sweet, juicy & Mother made the best preserves ever. The "giant" strawberries found in the supermarkets don't compare in taste.

The country would be a better place if there were more housewives and fewer day care centers.

 

[walkenvol]

Excellent examle: strawberries. Growing up we grew strawberries in our backyard garden. Small, sweet, juicy & Mother made the best preserves ever. The "giant" strawberries found in the supermarkets don't compare in taste.

There are fairly large varieties of strawberries that are very tasty these days. I suspect the problem with what’s on the shelf at Publix is those berries are grown all over the country and possibly world then shipped. The berries can’t fully ripen on the plant or they will spoil before reaching market. Locally grown addresses that but produce won’t be as readily available out of season

 

[Go aeiou]

There are fairly large varieties of strawberries that are very tasty these days. I suspect the problem with what’s on the shelf at Publix is those berries are grown all over the country and possibly world then shipped. The berries can’t fully ripen on the plant or they will spoil before reaching market. Locally grown addresses that but produce won’t be as readily available out of season

Unfortunately new varieties of fruits and veggies are modified to ship well and look good. Has nothing to do health, and almost nothing to do with taste.

 

[hog88]

We are a beef operation primarily. Produce alfalfa hay that is primarily sold to out of state dairy operations. We are a shadow of what we used to be as far as being a productive farm,. We were one of the first grade A dairy farms in East Tennessee a few generations back. We own about 300 acres but we used to lease and farm considerably more than that.

No longer milking? If not I can't blame you, if it were up to me we'd have been out of the dairy business years ago. You can make living albeit not a great one on 100-150 head but what's a living if you're working 7 days a week?

 

[hog88]

Younger people just aren’t getting into farming

Can't blame them.