Very concerned over agricultural outlook. We all should be.

#26
#26
walkenvol said:
I was doing some work in Sweetwater a couple years back and learned from a local dairy farmer that all their milk went to Mayfield. I had always assumed Mayfield had some huge dairy farms but it appeared they sourced a large portion of their products from private family dairy farms?
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Mayfield Dairy is a co-op now owned by DFA.
 
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#28
#28
Has there ever been a time in the history of farming where farmers were confident and optimistic about the future?

I have yet to meet any who don't have their panties in a twist about what's to come.
 
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#29
#29
McDad said:
Has there ever been a time in the history of farming where farmers were confident and optimistic about the future?

I have yet to meet any who don't have their panties in a twist about what's to come.
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Good question. It's been doom and gloom my whole life.

As for dairy the big problem for small farms is help. It used to not be so hard to find HS kids to milk in the mornings and evenings but that's gone the way of the dodo bird. Even getting students from the Dairy Science department at VA tech is damn near impossible anymore. Hard to have a life without some reliable teat pullers.
 
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#30
#30
McDad said:
Has there ever been a time in the history of farming where farmers were confident and optimistic about the future?
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After the Black Death when serfs had increased leverage against their lords, probably.
 
#31
#31
McDad said:
Has there ever been a time in the history of farming where farmers were confident and optimistic about the future?

I have yet to meet any who don't have their panties in a twist about what's to come.
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They had it good before the Civil War
 
#32
#32
hog88 said:
Good question. It's been doom and gloom my whole life.

As for dairy the big problem for small farms is help. It used to not be so hard to find HS kids to milk in the mornings and evenings but that's gone the way of the dodo bird. Even getting students from the Dairy Science department at VA tech is damn near impossible anymore. Hard to have a life without some reliable teat pullers.
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That's exactly what I was hearing from some Dairy Science profs a few years back while working with them on some facility projects...machines and tech can stretch it out a bit in terms of labor needs, but at some point there's got to be a human involved. That, coupled with the fluctuations in pricing and demand, is affecting the industry big time from what I understood.
 
#33
#33
tbh said:
That's exactly what I was hearing from some Dairy Science profs a few years back while working with them on some facility projects...machines and tech can stretch it out a bit in terms of labor needs, but at some point there's got to be a human involved. That, coupled with the fluctuations in pricing and demand, is affecting the industry big time from what I understood.
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We built a new milk parlor 9-10 years ago and I fought with my dad trying to get him to put a robotic system in because help was so hard to find. Of course I lost that battle.

Robotic Milking - W.K. Kellogg Farm
 
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#34
#34
hog88 said:
Good question. It's been doom and gloom my whole life.

As for dairy the big problem for small farms is help. It used to not be so hard to find HS kids to milk in the mornings and evenings but that's gone the way of the dodo bird. Even getting students from the Dairy Science department at VA tech is damn near impossible anymore. Hard to have a life without some reliable teat pullers.
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I don’t do dairy but issue I hear about most is lack of bottlers and creameries. Lots of dairymen think there’s collusion among processors that depresses their price. You have to have a lot of capital and a big consumer market to pull off a boutique brand like Hatcher where people are willing to pay 20-30% upcharge for local. I hear the same thing from cattlemen about USDA inspected slaughterhouses. Not enough of them out there. It’s a tough trade off. These scaled up processors do tend to dominate markets but they’re a seemingly inevitable by product of our food safety regulations. We could throw open meat and dairy for farm to consumer like we do with most produce, but food safety would suffer and some people would die. As a society, we have to decide where to draw that line.
 
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#35
#35
hog88 said:
We built a new milk parlor 9-10 years ago and I fought with my dad trying to get him to put a robotic system in because help was so hard to find. Of course I lost that battle.

Robotic Milking - W.K. Kellogg Farm
Click to expand...

That would be quite a set-up! If you don't mind me asking out of curiosity, what would the rough cost work out to (either per head, or throughput)?

Then again, what happens when SkyNet takes over Teat-1000 and somehow weaponizes it?
 
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#36
#36
VolunteerHillbilly said:
I don’t do dairy but issue I hear about most is lack of bottlers and creameries. Lots of dairymen think there’s collusion among processors that depresses their price. You have to have a lot of capital and a big consumer market to pull off a boutique brand like Hatcher where people are willing to pay 20-30% upcharge for local. I hear the same thing from cattlemen about USDA inspected slaughterhouses. Not enough of them out there. It’s a tough trade off. These scaled up processors do tend to dominate markets but they’re a seemingly inevitable by product of our food safety regulations. We could throw open meat and dairy for farm to consumer like we do with most produce, but food safety would suffer and some people would die. As a society, we have to decide where to draw that line.
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Being that DFA is the largest processor in the US and it's a co-op I don't think lack of creameries is the problem. IME it's the simple lack of business acumen on the farmers part and .gov controls that have caused most of the problems. Milk prices go up they expand the herd to capitalize, milk prices go down they expand the herd to keep the cash coming in.
 
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#37
#37
tbh said:
That would be quite a set-up! If you don't mind me asking out of curiosity, what would the rough cost work out to (either per head, or throughput)?

Then again, what happens when SkyNet takes over Teat-1000 and somehow weaponizes it?
Click to expand...

I don't remember those numbers. I remember a 2 stall system was going to cost roughly 2.25x more than the double 8 herringbone we put in. We would have had to do a major redesign of the way the barns and feeding system were set up to accommodate the robotic system where the new parlor was just built right beside the old one.
 
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#38
#38
hog88 said:
I don't remember those numbers. I remember a 2 stall system was going to cost roughly 2.25x more than the double 8 herringbone we put in. We would have had to do a major redesign of the way the barns and feeding system were set up to accommodate the robotic system where the new parlor was just built right beside the old one.
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I'd imagine retrofitting one of those robotic systems could be intensive, from the physical space aspect to the utility changes they might need and everything in between. Renovations can always be "exciting".
 
#40
#40
hog88 said:
No longer milking? If not I can't blame you, if it were up to me we'd have been out of the dairy business years ago. You can make living albeit not a great one on 100-150 head but what's a living if you're working 7 days a week?
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My family farmed, peaking at around 5,000 acres of cotton and peanuts in the 80s, but dairy farming is hard work with no breaks. Much respect to those who do it. First job was in a tobacco field. I've always said if anyone says they worked in tobacco, at least one time in their life, they worked hard. Same thing for the dairy guys. The one thing I hated most was cows (except on the grill). We had a couple of hundred head of beef cows and treated them like a part-time job. When I was real young we raised hogs as well. Had a pretty good sized brood and feeder operation for a family outfit with over a thousand feeder pigs at times.
 
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#42
#42
GroverCleveland said:
My family farmed, peaking at around 5,000 acres of cotton and peanuts in the 80s, but dairy farming is hard work with no breaks. Much respect to those who do it. First job was in a tobacco field. I've always said if anyone says they worked in tobacco, at least one time in their life, they worked hard. Same thing for the dairy guys. The one thing I hated most was cows (except on the grill). We had a couple of hundred head of beef cows and treated them like a part-time job. When I was real young we raised hogs as well. Had a pretty good sized brood and feeder operation for a family outfit with over a thousand feeder pigs at times.
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I’d cut a MFer if he tried to offer me another job in a tobacco field.
 
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#44
#44
We grew about 20 acres of tobacco throughout my childhood and college years. Sometimes i miss looking out towards the fields and seeing that great looking crop.
 
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#46
#46
Agricultural input shortages will cause natiions across the globe to limit exports. The nations who rely on imports to fill their caloric needs will be facing a crisis. Nations like the US who import bacause of want and not necessity will face massive price increases. It will take several years to fix the commodity chains enough to fill in the shortage gaps.
 
#47
#47
agVOL90 said:
I have been involved in production agriculture, agri-business and commodity investing for most of my life. I have never experienced as much uncertainty regarding the short and long term prospects of the industry of agriculture in my life.

The costs projected for this coming year will have a devastating impact on almost every segment of agriculture. Fertilizer, seed, chemical and mechanical inputs are in some cases approaching a 300% increase in price and that is if you can even begin to source them. I know multiple farmers who have made the determination that planting corn or soybeans will be useless as there is no pathway to profitability.

There are producers who have equipment that has been idle for over a year while they are waiting on parts with no set delivery date. Small and medium sized farms especially are vulnerable because there often are no pieces of equipment on the bench that can be pressed into service as backups.

The average age of the American Farmer is increasing at a startling rate and the high cists and debtload is keeping the current generation from passing the farms onto the next in far too many instances.

This nation is facing what seems like a myriad of issues but I tell you now, the uncertainty around the future of our food production might be the most impactful.
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It's why I'm looking to get out of the city and get some land. I'm late in doing this, but I'm going to become more self sufficient.
 
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#48
#48
agVOL90 said:
We grew about 20 acres of tobacco throughout my childhood and college years. Sometimes i miss looking out towards the fields and seeing that great looking crop.
Click to expand...

I don’t miss the black tar that was all over you by the end of it.

Land is being changed in middle Tennessee so dramatically, there is no way of going back. People don’t care and don’t realize the long term issues they are creating.
 
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#49
#49
Fun coupon VOL said:
I don’t miss the black tar that was all over you by the end of it.

Land is being changed in middle Tennessee so dramatically, there is no way of going back. People don’t care and don’t realize the long term issues they are creating.
Click to expand...
The beat investment you can make is guns and ammo
 
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