Vols -115 odds to make playoffs via draftkings

[VolCalls]

Y’all are naive about Indiana. The only way a one-loss IU team gets in is if they take OSU to overtime or something. The committee will drop them like a hot tamale at the slightest excuse because 1. They’re not a big brand and 2. They won’t want to risk another TCU-like debacle.

I don’t think it will matter because they will give OSU a game for four quarters and lock up their spot.

 

[Power_Sweep_Vol]

There are multiple ways for us to make it, if you assume that ACC, Big12, and Group of 5 get 1 each, and that is a fair assumption. Any one of these could put us in. I am forgetting about true longshot possibilities like Penn St losing at home to Maryland

1) The committee values Tennessee's resume over Ole Miss's right now, so that if we win out we'd be in almost no matter what. This is a real possibility because our best win (Bama vs Georgia) is equal to their best win, and our losses (Ga vs LSU, Ark vs Ky) are better also. (can't quantify what human opinions are)
2) Penn State loses to Minnesota Saturday (~20%)
3) Notre Dame loses to either Army or USC (~35%)
4) Ole Miss loses to Florida Saturday (20%)
5) Indiana gets a mudhole stomped in them Saturday by 25+, which is what I think it would take to drop them below us (15%)
6) Ohio State loses to Indiana and the committee values our resume over theirs...hard to quantify the likelihood of that but Oh St losing is 20%
7) Alabama loses at Oklahoma (10%)
8) Georgia loses to GaTech (5-10%)
9) Texas loses to TxA&M and the committee values our resume over theirs

All of those things above not happening is way less likely than any one of them happening...and of course we'd need to win out

 

[Vol423]

Current projectionView attachment 698652

That would be dream seeding for us - playing insanely overrated Penn State and then insanely overrated Miami.

 

[Vol423]

There are multiple ways for us to make it, if you assume that ACC, Big12, and Group of 5 get 1 each, and that is a fair assumption. Any one of these could put us in. I am forgetting about true longshot possibilities like Penn St losing at home to Maryland

1) The committee values Tennessee's resume over Ole Miss's right now, so that if we win out we'd be in almost no matter what. This is a real possibility because our best win (Bama vs Georgia) is equal to their best win, and our losses (Ga vs LSU, Ark vs Ky) are better also. (can't quantify what human opinions are)
2) Penn State loses to Minnesota Saturday (~20%)
3) Notre Dame loses to either Army or USC (~35%)
4) Ole Miss loses to Florida Saturday (20%)
5) Indiana gets a mudhole stomped in them Saturday by 25+, which is what I think it would take to drop them below us (15%)
6) Ohio State loses to Indiana and the committee values our resume over theirs...hard to quantify the likelihood of that but Oh St losing is 20%
7) Alabama loses at Oklahoma (10%)
8) Georgia loses to GaTech (5-10%)
9) Texas loses to TxA&M and the committee values our resume over theirs

All of those things above not happening is way less likely than any one of them happening...and of course we'd need to win out

I doubt any of those things happen.

 

[stolitonic]

Current projectionView attachment 698652

I want a first round playoff game against Ole Miss lol.

Talk about absolute insanity.

 

[Power_Sweep_Vol]

I doubt any of those things happen.

ok...there is at best a 15-20% chance of all those things not happening, and that is being generous. You're saying you'd be willing to be even money that not a single one happens?

 

[Vol423]

ok...there is at best a 15-20% chance of all those things not happening, and that is being generous. You're saying you'd be willing to be even money that not a single one happens?

I don't gamble.

 

[Power_Sweep_Vol]

I don't gamble.

But you're able to understand how probabilities are calculated, right?

 

[Vol423]

But you're able to understand how probabilities are calculated, right?

As I said before, I doubt any of those things will happen. Remember, a couple of the items on your list involve a favored team (like Texas) losing AND the committee favoring our schedule over the Texas schedule.

 

[Power_Sweep_Vol]

As I said before, I doubt any of those things will happen. Remember, a couple of the items on your list involve a favored team (like Texas) losing AND the committee favoring our schedule over the Texas schedule.

OK...that's not very smart if you ask me since the odds of Notre Dame losing a game are 30-40%, and that is just one item. But I won't go through the math for you.

 

[Vol423]

OK...that's not very smart if you ask me since the odds of Notre Dame losing a game are 30-40%, and that is just one item. But I won't go through the math for you.

That means the chance of Notre Dame winning out is 60%-70%. I understand the math. I already told you, I don't gamble. Vegas didn't build all those multi-billion casinos off of losses.

 

[Power_Sweep_Vol]

That means the chance of Notre Dame winning out is 60%-70%. I understand the math. I already told you, I don't gamble. Vegas didn't build all those multi-billion casinos off of losses.

Yes, the chance of Notre Dame beating both Army this weekend and USC next weekend is about 65%.

 

[jcvol87]

Current projectionView attachment 698652

Hypothetically, if this ended up being the actual case, how fun it would be to find a way to beat Penn State, Miami, and then possible rematch of either Bama or UGA.. if all of that did happen who would you play again in that scenario? Bama or UGA?

 

[Volbrando]

Hypothetically, if this ended up being the actual case, how fun it would be to find a way to beat Penn State, Miami, and then possible rematch of either Bama or UGA.. if all of that did happen who would you play again in that scenario? Bama or UGA?

Bama