Vols Are SEC’s Winningest Program Since 2017

[Sudden Impact]

This sounds pretty Mediocre to me and the several who post so in this Forum are out of touch!

 

[Vol49er]

My point is that if you want to use statistics to make the point that Barnes has outperformed other programs during his tenure at TN, you need to use his entire tenure and not eliminate his first two seasons. The more data you include the more accurate your data will be. The more data you eliminate, the weaker your data will be.

I agree with that, but that's not the point OP was trying to make. He was making the point that Barnes has outperformed other programs (many of which have longer tenured coaches) after an initial rebuilding era. I dont think that is a strained point

 

[OffTackleVol]

Wonder if someone can take what he's built to the next level?

Perhaps, but the wrong hire and we're right back to being $hit...........

 

[jaguinn5]

I agree with that, but that's not the point OP was trying to make. He was making the point that Barnes has outperformed other programs (many of which have longer tenured coaches) after an initial rebuilding era. I dont think that is a strained point

My only contention would be that he is including other programs' down years, regardless of the reasons for having a down year. If another program was also rebuilding during the last 6 years should that not also be taken into consideration?

I only say that because all programs go through ups and downs, rebuilds and down years. The only accurate way to compare Barnes' tenure to other programs and coaches is to include ALL of their rebuilds and down years during the same time frame as what Barnes has had.

 

[Vol49er]

My only contention would be that he is including other programs' down years, regardless of the reasons for having a down year. If another program was also rebuilding during the last 6 years should that not also be taken into consideration?

I only say that because all programs go through ups and downs, rebuilds and down years. The only accurate way to compare Barnes' tenure to other programs and coaches is to include ALL of their rebuilds and down years during the same time frame as what Barnes has had.

That's always going to be an issue though. If you include the last eight years, a coach who has been at a school for ten years and had two rebuilding years at the start is advantaged. Its a completely fair point to say Barnes has successfully built this program into one of the nation's best, and there's nothing inherently misleading about using the last six years (one of which was a transition type year anyway) to evidence that

 

[SN-A-C Orange]

My point is that if you want to use statistics to make the point that Barnes has outperformed other programs during his tenure at TN, you need to use his entire tenure and not eliminate his first two seasons. The more data you include the more accurate your data will be. The more data you eliminate, the weaker your data will be.

False!!!
Coaches lose relevancy.
Tom Landry. 250-162 winning percentage .602
Last 5 years 36-43
Last 3 years 17-30
Let's throw away the last year which was really bad
4 out of the last 5, 33-30 ... barely above .500
Sometimes a more recent sample size is a better predictor of future expectations.

For the record, I want to go deeper in the tournament, too!!!!!
But look at the data from a different angle ... the team that knocked us out ... how deep do they go?!?
2023, we were beaten by a team that reached the Final 4, FAU ... what does the rest of the recent data indicate????
2022, we were beaten by a team that reached the Sweet 16, Michigan State
2021, we were beaten by a team that reached the Elite 8, Oregon State

Furthermore, I will also grant that we were not a great performing team against "quick, four guard teams." In fact, quick PGs gave us trouble ... even when Zakai was on the floor.

Data - can be manipulated to 'show' the message you already believe is true.
That is the difficulty we all face is learning to look at the data set ... it is extremely challenging to look at the data from various angles to make sure we are not "making the data say what we want it to say."

We all have bias! I bring my bias to the data, I cannot help myself.
My bias is that Rick Barnes is a very good coach. He is much like Tom Landry, he is stubborn in his viewpoint and has trouble shifting from his current viewpoint.
He has made some changes to his philosophy, in the last three seasons. They are small increments.
I am concerned that over the course of a season his players become leg-weary due to his philosophy.
I personally am not a fan of the small lineups (four guards) - but there is no denying the data that says they "tend" to go deeper in the tournament, if they are hot.
To his credit and I can see player development over time (if they can 'take his coaching').

The last time I coached a team we had a strategy to beat the best team in the league. It worked. We were far from the best team in the league.
The best team does not always win in tournament play!!!
The more talent you have the better your odds are of winning on ANY given day.
But if Chris Lofton is having an off day shooting, you might lose to a team that you should beat... or if Jodie Meeks goes off against your team for 54 points ... you are going to lose ... even if you play a decent game.
That is why so many people call it a "crap shoot." The outcome of a basketball game is 'unpredictable'!!!!!!!

 

[Jax_Vol]

We are also the prettiest fan base.

I don't blame all these Floriduh fans for hanging out on VN.

We are simply awesome

 

[TNVOLFN]

And no one is arguing he is a bad coach. No one is even arguing he isn’t a good coach. Or even a great regular season coach.

But time and time again he fails in March at a rate that is likely the worst or close to it of any coach with 10 or more appearances with a P5 school.

And if the above is true, the question is what is acceptable in the long run?

That should be the focus of any debate.

And it’s a legitimate question to ask if we could find better, but I think at some point we have to acknowledge Barnes can’t do much more (while thanking him for what he has done)

Serious question, do you think he should be fired?

Great chance Vols will have a solid regular season next year, then get bounced in the tourney. I believe in high standards, but am also aware of the dynamics of the NCAA tournament, paired with UT's abysmal history in the tournament.

I'm terribly disappointed every March, but I'm biased in that I'm a huge fan of Coach Barnes and how he operates, so I hope he coaches here as long as his heart desires, regardless of his NCAA Tournament results.

 

[zaqhhh]

Serious question, do you think he should be fired?

Great chance Vols will have a solid regular season next year, then get bounced in the tourney. I believe in high standards, but am also aware of the dynamics of the NCAA tournament, paired with UT's abysmal history in the tournament.

I'm terribly disappointed every March, but I'm biased in that I'm a huge fan of Coach Barnes and how he operates, so I hope he coaches here as long as his heart desires, regardless of his NCAA Tournament results.

I think we need to start moving towards a successor quickly.

I agree that there are valid points to be made about UTs history prior to Barnes and think he has done us a favor by elevating the program.

I do however think he has likely reached his apex and when a quality candidate is identified as wanting to come, we should move on that candidate.

The logistics of firing, some sort of exit deal, is less important than the fact we should be looking to move on whether that takes a season or two or three.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I think we need to start moving towards a successor quickly.

I agree that there are valid points to be made about UTs history prior to Barnes and think he has done us a favor by elevating the program.

I do however think he has likely reached his apex and when a quality candidate is identified as wanting to come, we should move on that candidate.

The logistics of firing, some sort of exit deal, is less important than the fact we should be looking to move on whether that takes a season or two or three.

Clueless.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I think we need to start moving towards a successor quickly.

I agree that there are valid points to be made about UTs history prior to Barnes and think he has done us a favor by elevating the program.

I do however think he has likely reached his apex and when a quality candidate is identified as wanting to come, we should move on that candidate.

The logistics of firing, some sort of exit deal, is less important than the fact we should be looking to move on whether that takes a season or two or three.

So if his replacement was to make 2 S16’s in his first 2 years should we fire him as well?

 

[zaqhhh]

So if his replacement was to make 2 S16’s in his first 2 years should we fire him as well?

If he underperformed the regular season each time then yes.

Also I would maybe suggest choosing someone younger who doesn’t have one of the worst NCAT for a coach of his stature (and again I acknowledge to get there is an achievement in itself but his March results are not defensible)

 

[zaqhhh]

Clueless.

You used an anecdote, I gave you 27 years of detailed tourney data.

Tell me facts bother you without telling me

He is a great coach but is incapable of doing it in March. How big of a sample size you need?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

If he underperformed the regular season each time then yes.

Also I would maybe suggest choosing someone younger who doesn’t have one of the worst NCAT for a coach of his stature (and again I acknowledge to get there is an achievement in itself but his March results are not defensible)

We haven’t underperformed the regular season though?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

You used an anecdote, I gave you 27 years of detailed tourney data.

Tell me facts bother you without telling me

He is a great coach but is incapable of doing it in March. How big of a sample size you need?

It took 5 NCAAT before Barnes made it to a F4 at Texas, the 2 out of next 5 he made E8…so 10 years and he had a F4 and 2 E8’s, who’s to say he can’t/won’t follow a similar path here?

 

[zaqhhh]

We haven’t underperformed the regular season though?

He has consistently underperformed the regular season results in the postseason.

He does well in the regular season. A+ coach.

Falls apart in March. D coach.

He is a good coach that simply cannot get over the hump. I’m sorry but 3 decades of evidence is not something I’m willing to ignore.

Great guy, good coach, but at some point we have to be willing to move on when the opportunity comes along.

 

[zaqhhh]

It took 5 NCAAT before Barnes made it to a F4 at Texas, the 2 out of next 5 he made E8…so 10 years and he had a F4 and 2 E8’s, who’s to say he can’t/won’t follow a similar path here?

So let’s flip the script here. What results would constitute moving on short of not making the tourney at all?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

He has consistently underperformed the regular season results in the postseason.

He does well in the regular season. A+ coach.

Falls apart in March. D coach.

He is a good coach that simply cannot get over the hump. I’m sorry but 3 decades of evidence is not something I’m willing to ignore.

Great guy, good coach, but at some point we have to be willing to move on when the opportunity comes along.

If you’re counting 30 years of evidence what hump then are you referencing? He has S16’s, E8’s and a F4…so if you’re solely talking winning it all that would eliminate just about everyone.

 

[zaqhhh]

If you’re counting 30 years of evidence what hump then are you referencing? He has S16’s, E8’s and a F4…so if you’re solely talking winning it all that would eliminate just about everyone.

My hump is the aggregate result.

He has 24 tourney appearances at P5 schools (this excludes providence who arguably should be considered).

The fact that within that, he has been upset many more times than he has overperformed is an issue for me.

The fact he has lost clutch games at double the rate he has won them.

Please reference the stats on the previous page and provide a defense to those.

If the defense is “well he is making the tourney and made a couple E8/F4 even if he is dramatically underperforming expectations in the postseason” then we simply have different standards of what is acceptable. Which is fine but you should admit that.

 

[SN-A-C Orange]

If he underperformed the regular season each time then yes.

Also I would maybe suggest choosing someone younger who doesn’t have one of the worst NCAT for a coach of his stature (and again I acknowledge to get there is an achievement in itself but his March results are not defensible)

The regular season ... was a success. Granted it was not the same level of success as 2022.
His March results are defensible ... Do you agree that Tennessee got as far or farther in the 2023 NCAA tournament than 12/16 top seeds???
It is not what I was hoping for ... but that is absolutely defensible ... especially when you factor in injuries to starting players.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

So let’s flip the script here. What results would constitute moving on short of not making the tourney at all?

I would say not making it out of the first weekend the next 3-4 years, whether that’s missing or making the tournament.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

My hump is the aggregate result.

He has 24 tourney appearances at P5 schools (this excludes providence who arguably should be considered).

The fact that within that, he has been upset many more times than he has overperformed is an issue for me.

The fact he has lost clutch games at double the rate he has won them.

Please reference the stats on the previous page and provide a defense to those.

If the defense is “well he is making the tourney and made a couple E8/F4 even if he is dramatically underperforming expectations in the postseason” then we simply have different standards of what is acceptable. Which is fine but you should admit that.

So you’d be happier if we were so/so in the regular season each year, a 9 seed or worse, and just won 1 game each NCAAT? Because by the definition that’s over performing the seed, right?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

My simple take is this…is 4 years 4 NCAAT, all as Top 5 seeds and 3/4 winning 25+ games, and 2 S16’s good enough? Absolutely imo, and I think there’s about a 1% chance that whoever we hire next can top that.

 

[sonofUT62]

I don’t know. Given the history of the program, it is much more likely that it would go more than one level in the other direction.

With a father that’s an AD at a basketball school and a brother that’s sort of a basketball coach I hope that White stays serious about basketball. I know he hired Oats. No idea if he’s ever had to make another Bball hire.

 

[SN-A-C Orange]

My hump is the aggregate result.

He has 24 tourney appearances at P5 schools (this excludes providence who arguably should be considered).

The fact that within that, he has been upset many more times than he has overperformed is an issue for me.

The fact he has lost clutch games at double the rate he has won them.

Please reference the stats on the previous page and provide a defense to those.

If the defense is “well he is making the tourney and made a couple E8/F4 even if he is dramatically underperforming expectations in the postseason” then we simply have different standards of what is acceptable. Which is fine but you should admit that.

How much basketball have you coached and at what level is your expertise?
I am trying to understand your frame of reference, so bear with me .... You appear to be completely ignoring any fact that does not fit your vision.
You should not use data that is older than 10 years ... because what a person has done LATELY is MORE relevant ... Ask the Kentucky basketball fans. In fact, the average stay at a college institutions as a basketball coach is @6 years ... reduce your argument to the last 6 years!
In fact you should not use data that is older than @4 years because that is the average life of a contract ... meaning that is the relevant information according to ADs who make the contract. They could care less about 30 years ... they are interested in two things ONLY. What have you done for me lately. And what does it look like going forward!!!
So, here are facts:
2021-22 Tennessee won the SEC Conference tournament ... something they have not done during the ENTIRE length of Rick Barnes career!!!
You completely ignored when I indicated that we were beaten by HOT teams in the NCAA tournament Vols Are SEC’s Winningest Program Since 2017
Here are facts... feel free to tell me why they are invalid ....
2023, we were beaten by a team that reached the Final 4, FAU ... what does the rest of the recent data indicate????
2022, we were beaten by a team that reached the Sweet 16, Michigan State
2021, we were beaten by a team that reached the Elite 8, Oregon State