1 seeds are going to be Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, and Syracuse.
2 seeds are going to be Purdue, West Virginia, Ohio State, Kansas State.
Theres no way we pass any of those teams considering all of them but Syracuse are in either there confrence semifinals or finals.
Means we are a 3 seed and IF we win the next two the top 3 seed.
I agree with you for the most part. I think if Purdue wins the Big 10, however, they will pass the 'Cuse for the last 1 seed (assuming Duke beats Tech). The committee puts a lot of weight in how teams play in the conference tourney and how teams play at the end of the regular season. Remember, Purdue beat West Virginia in January. In addition, Syracuse has lost their last 2 games....
1: Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Purdue
2: Syracuse, West Virginia, Kansas State, Ohio St
3: Tennessee, Butler, New Mexico, Wisconsin
4: Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Temple, Georgetown
5: BYU, Maryland, Pitt, UTEP
6: Baylor, Zags, TxA&M, Nova
-New Mexico and BYU losing helps us but New Mexico still has a great record and beat some decent non-conference foes (TxA&M, Cal). I think we have to beat UK to surpass New Mexico still. We should surpass BYU regardless, as they've lost twice to UNM and UNLV, not to mention, their best non-conference victories are pretty weak (Arizona St, Arizona, Nebraska).
-Nova will take a Texas-sized fall since they were 2-6 their last 8 games.
-Michigan St and Wisconsin losing today to Big 10 bubble teams should put both behind us; State's only good non-conference win was against the Zags, which isn't that impressive, imo. Wisconsin was more of a legit threat, having beaten Duke, Maryland, Marquette and Zona in a tough non-conference schedule. But I think we'll still be ahead of them even if we lose to UK.
-The Zags lost to St. Mary's in the finals.
Scenario play:
Unless there's a blow-out in the semis/finals for the Big 12 (Kansas vs Kansas St), Big 10, Big East (WVU vs Gtown) or SEC I don't see my 1s and 2s changing...except:
if UT beats UK and wins the SEC, I could see us squeezing past Ohio St unless they win the Big 10. That final 2 seed is were I begin to see wiggle room.
Also, for Purdue and Duke to get 1 seeds, they have to win their tourneys. If not, welcome back Syracuse. WVU and KSU have an outside shot if they get a lot of help and look good in the finals but I suspect they'll be 2s unless both Purdue and Ohio St lose in the semis (unlikely).
In the end, I see us being a 3 seed unless we play horrible against Kentucky. I wouldn't be surprised if we beat them, however. I am less optomistic facing Vandy in the finals than beating Kentucky. Pearl really brings it when facing Cal. Unfortunately, with Kentucky's fan support at the tourney, it may make the difference.
That's why they play the game...I love March!