War in Ukraine

#61,254
#61,254
Upcoming Russian Collapse / Nation Building... again!?!?

Per Telegraph:

“There will be no money already next year,” Deripaska, the metals tycoon already subject to American, British and EU sanctions, told a conference in Siberia this week. “We will need foreign investors.”

That much is certainly true. The spending on the war has escalated dramatically. According to an analysis by Reuters, the military and security budget has risen to $155bn, or a third of all state spending. Putin and his generals may have planned a lightning campaign leading to a victory parade through the streets of Kyiv within a matter of weeks. But that is not the way it has worked out.

Instead, Russia is bogged down in a brutal war of attrition along a stretched front line that is consuming men and machinery on an epic scale. And if the fighting is tragically reminiscent of the First World War, then there will be similarities in the economic context, too. The Great War was effectively over once the economic might of the United States was thrown behind the Allies.

It is possible that China may step in to help Russia out. But it would be rash to count on it. The Chinese, and especially President Xi, are not sentimental, and they are certainly not interested in losers.

It is hard to see that they have anything to gain by bailing Putin out. And without help from China, it is impossible that Russia’s shrinking economy can match the spending power of the West (and the White House announced another $400m of help only yesterday). A total economic collapse is simply a matter of time.

The West needs to be ready for that. When the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991 the response was a total disaster. The country was allowed to sink into chaos, with GDP falling by a shocking 45pc between 1988 and 1998.

It was hardly surprising against that backdrop that industry fell into the hands of a corrupt group of oligarchs, and that an authoritarian state controlled by Putin quickly took charge. We ended up with a repressive, militarised regime, threatening its neighbours, and repressing its people. In other words, right back at square one.

The collapse of 2023 needs to be handled very differently. Like the post-war reconstruction of Japan and Germany, or indeed, the post-Soviet rebuilding of Poland, now on track to be richer than Britain, at least according to Sir Keir Starmer (who conveniently forgets to mention that it will also be richer than Spain and France), it needs to create small businesses, back entrepreneurs not robber barons, and encourage free and competitive markets operating under the rule of law instead of a gangster clique entirely dependent on favours from the Government.

None of that is going to be easy, but then it wasn’t easy in Japan and Germany, either. It will require massive financial assistance when the Putin regime falls apart to stop output going into freefall, and that will be expensive, especially at a time when we will need to help Ukraine rebuild as well.

Even more importantly it will take slow, patient institution building. If successful, however, there will be at least a chance of a modern, liberal democracy emerging from the ruins of this dreadful war. And that will be a neighbour the rest of us can finally live with.

In reality, Russia’s economic collapse is not far off – and this time around the West needs to have a plan ready for when it happens."
 
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#61,257
#61,257
MontyPython said:
Upcoming Russian Collapse / Nation Building... again!?!?

Per Telegraph:

“There will be no money already next year,” Deripaska, the metals tycoon already subject to American, British and EU sanctions, told a conference in Siberia this week. “We will need foreign investors.”

That much is certainly true. The spending on the war has escalated dramatically. According to an analysis by Reuters, the military and security budget has risen to $155bn, or a third of all state spending. Putin and his generals may have planned a lightning campaign leading to a victory parade through the streets of Kyiv within a matter of weeks. But that is not the way it has worked out.

Instead, Russia is bogged down in a brutal war of attrition along a stretched front line that is consuming men and machinery on an epic scale. And if the fighting is tragically reminiscent of the First World War, then there will be similarities in the economic context, too. The Great War was effectively over once the economic might of the United States was thrown behind the Allies.

It is possible that China may step in to help Russia out. But it would be rash to count on it. The Chinese, and especially President Xi, are not sentimental, and they are certainly not interested in losers.

It is hard to see that they have anything to gain by bailing Putin out. And without help from China, it is impossible that Russia’s shrinking economy can match the spending power of the West (and the White House announced another $400m of help only yesterday). A total economic collapse is simply a matter of time.

The West needs to be ready for that. When the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991 the response was a total disaster. The country was allowed to sink into chaos, with GDP falling by a shocking 45pc between 1988 and 1998.

It was hardly surprising against that backdrop that industry fell into the hands of a corrupt group of oligarchs, and that an authoritarian state controlled by Putin quickly took charge. We ended up with a repressive, militarised regime, threatening its neighbours, and repressing its people. In other words, right back at square one.

The collapse of 2023 needs to be handled very differently. Like the post-war reconstruction of Japan and Germany, or indeed, the post-Soviet rebuilding of Poland, now on track to be richer than Britain, at least according to Sir Keir Starmer (who conveniently forgets to mention that it will also be richer than Spain and France), it needs to create small businesses, back entrepreneurs not robber barons, and encourage free and competitive markets operating under the rule of law instead of a gangster clique entirely dependent on favours from the Government.

None of that is going to be easy, but then it wasn’t easy in Japan and Germany, either. It will require massive financial assistance when the Putin regime falls apart to stop output going into freefall, and that will be expensive, especially at a time when we will need to help Ukraine rebuild as well.

Even more importantly it will take slow, patient institution building. If successful, however, there will be at least a chance of a modern, liberal democracy emerging from the ruins of this dreadful war. And that will be a neighbour the rest of us can finally live with.

In reality, Russia’s economic collapse is not far off – and this time around the West needs to have a plan ready for when it happens."
Click to expand...

Would be a black hole sucking every dollar it can into oblivion. Just as bad or worse as sending Ukraine actual money.
 
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#61,258
#61,258
If you want to read very well-written evaluations of the war on a daily basis try the Institute for the Study of War webpage,

The Royal United Services Institute is a pretty good think tank in the UK and you can read most of their articles.

And if you want the Russian perspective on how the war is going (they're wiping out Ukraine, ignore the 200,000 casualties) go through Raz's posts.
 
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#61,267
#61,267
BeardedVol said:
Click to expand...

Here is Gerashchenko’s tweet with the translation. The context seems to be yet another plea for more ammo and if they don’t get more ammo they could be forced to fall back. Then he goes all drama queen on what happens if he does fall back. I read it as give Wagner more ammo or Russia loses the war

 
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#61,268
#61,268
So now this is the moment of truth with regards to The Institute for The Study of War... if Russia does encircle Bakhmut, will you guys finally dismiss anything that comes out of that Kagan family organization? What a ridiculous prediction with the situation on the ground showing far different.

Russian troops will not be able to encircle Bakhmut in near future ISW

The Russians may have intended to encircle Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut, but the Ukrainian command has signaled that it will likely withdraw rather than risk an encirclement.
Click to expand...

Snake/lawyer language. The end result is the same. Either they withdraw or they get encircled. Either way, the end result is the same.
 
#61,269
#61,269
Rasputin_Vol said:
So now this is the moment of truth with regards to The Institute for The Study of War... if Russia does encircle Bakhmut, will you guys finally dismiss anything that comes out of that Kagan family organization? What a ridiculous prediction with the situation on the ground showing far different.

Russian troops will not be able to encircle Bakhmut in near future ISW



Snake/lawyer language. The end result is the same. Either they withdraw or they get encircled. Either way, the end result is the same.
Click to expand...
LMAO hilarious. Within the same post you set up your arbitrary pretext which we must abide by to treat a source as trust worthy and then immediately get all pissy and acknowledge their language doesn’t fit your pretext. So you just Donjo’d yourself Moe! I used to think you were smarter than this clearly you aren’t. 😂
 
#61,270
#61,270
Rasputin_Vol said:
So now this is the moment of truth with regards to The Institute for The Study of War... if Russia does encircle Bakhmut, will you guys finally dismiss anything that comes out of that Kagan family organization? What a ridiculous prediction with the situation on the ground showing far different.
Click to expand...
"Near future" is not defined.
 
#61,273
#61,273
NorthDallas40 said:
Here is Gerashchenko’s tweet with the translation. The context seems to be yet another plea for more ammo and if they don’t get more ammo they could be forced to fall back. Then he goes all drama queen on what happens if he does fall back. I read it as give Wagner more ammo or Russia loses the war

Click to expand...

If a retreat from Bakhmut will lead to what Prigozhin is predicting their goose is cooked anyway.
 
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#61,274
#61,274
Hunerwadel said:
If a retreat from Bakhmut will lead to what Prigozhin is predicting their goose is cooked anyway.
Click to expand...
Hopefully their goose is cooked regardless but it just looks like more crying by Prigozhin for more ammo. Of course we’ve been reassured ammo isn’t a problem for the invading orc forces so I’m sure this is all just a ruse 😂
 
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