Week Ahead in SEC 4/30/2024 - 5/5/2024 (Random thoughts)

#1

fryeguy93

Rufus X. Sarsaparilli
Joined
Dec 11, 2009
Messages
8,955
Likes
21,687
#1
Tuesday
RPI # 228 Lipscomb at Tennessee
Georgia at #79 Kennesaw State -this will be a good game to watch)
#224 Tennessee Tech at Vanderbilt
# 264 Lindenwood at Missouri
# 169 Tarleton State at Texas A&M
#269 Grambling at LSU
#128 Missouri State at Arkansas


Wednesday
#128 Missouri State @ Arkansas
#52 ETSU at South Carolina
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State (non conference- Pearl, Miss.) Ole Miss won prior series 2-1 in Oxford.

Thursday-Saturday
Tennessee at Florida

Friday- Sunday
Arkansas at Kentucky
Ole Miss at Auburn
Alabama at Miss. State
South Carolina at Missouri
Texas A&M at LSU
Vanderbilt at Georgia

Several teams remain in catbird seat for NCAA hosting:
Arkansas
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Kentucky


The first 3 are firmly in national seed position. Kentucky- although a high RPI, now appears to be a paper tiger with losers of 4 of last 6 SEC games with Arkansas coming to town.

Those close?

South Carolina strengthened their argument and would be a top-16 host if season ended now.
I think Miss. State has now taken Vanderbilt's spot. Miss State has better SEC record and is trending way up. VU has better overall record. Head-to-head matters as it was played at Vanderbilt.
Alabama is inching closer. They travel to Starkville and their schedule is very soft with LSU and Auburn at end.
Georgia is on the outside looking in and needs to close strong. That series against Vanderbilt will be huge. Avoiding sweep at aTm was a positive.

STANDINGS

West
Arkansas...........16-5............--
Texas A&M......15-6...........1.0
Miss State........12-9...........4.0
Alabama..........9-12............7.0
LSU....................7-14............9.0
Ole Miss..........7-14............9.0
Auburn...........3-18..............13.0

East
Kentucky...........16-5.............--
Tennessee.........15-6............1.0
So.Carolina.......11-10.....55.0 (SC hold tiebreaker over VU)
Vanderbilt.........11-10........5.0.
Georgia..............10-11.........6.0
Florida.................9-12........77.0
Missouri.............6-15...........10.0

Overall
Arkansas...........16-5...........--
Kentucky...........16-5............--
Tennessee.........15-6...........1.0
Texas A&M......15-6...........1.0
Miss State........12-9...........4.0
So.Carolina.......11-10.....55.0
Vanderbilt.........11-10........5.0.
Georgia..............10-11.......6.0
Florida.................9-12......77.0
Alabama............9-12..........7.0
LSU.....................7-14...........9.0
Ole Misss..........7-14..........9.0

Missouri..........6-15...........10.0
Auburn............3-18............13.0

Auburn is as close to eliminated from post season as you can get. They did steal their 3rd conference win in Baton Rouge on Sunday. Their RPI remains surprisingly high at 43. They are 4 games out of #12 spot but are hosting Ole Miss this week and go to Mizzou next. They could get 4-5 win the next 2 weeks and that series at home against Alabama may be for a spot.

LSU is in a bind. They needed to sweep last weekend against Auburn and didn't get it with a bad final game at home. They have 2 series at home (TAMU and close with Ole Miss with a trip to Alabama in between. LSU's RPI is 42. They need to win those 2 home series to have a shot at NCAA. Or lose the TAMU series (no sweep) and replace that with a series win at Bama.

Alabama- as we said, is hoping to host but they have only 1 more home series (LSU) but go first to Starkville and close at Auburn. Their RPI is 15 which looks go. If they win all three series, then they are a lock to host.

SEC RPI

1.....Texas A&M
2.....Arkansas
3.....Kentucky
5.....Tennessee
9.....Georgia
11...South Carolina
15...Alabama
22...Florida
23...Vanderbilt
27...Ole Miss
28. Mississippi State
42...LSU
43. Auburn
91. Missouri


I went into this weekend thinking that Missouri is the least talented team in the SEC. I think they are better than I thought after seeing them -even with the Beer League softball uniforms. I don't think they were incredibly well coached with some atrocious mental mistakes - especially on base paths. But maybe they had bad weekend.
It is interesting that Wes Rucker noted on X that UT's worst OPS in their lineup (Cal Stark) was higher than Mizzou's best OPS.

Auburn's schedule draw in 2024 was simply brutal as they played the top four teams (Ark, A&M, Tenn and KY) in weeks 2-5 after being swept decisively at Vanderbilt in week 1. In fact, their first subpar SEC opponent was LSU over the weekend - and even this was on road. Ole Miss this coming weekend, is their first "winnable" series with a road trip the next week to Mizzou being their second. I think LSU is worse than Auburn but had the benefit of playin in B-R. It is amazing how many close games Auburn has lost in SEC play. They lost to Arkansas twice by 1 run. Swept @ A&M by 7 total runs. Lost two 2-run games at Miss St. Lost a 1 run game at LSU.

The Arkansas / Kentucky series this week is big. As we've learned; great pitching beats great hitting. I'm not sure Kentucky qualifies as great hitters though but they are at home. The Sat/Sun games are both in afternoon, which I feels favors Arkansas as they avoid the light dimming at KPP for night games. Here's what we've learned since 2001- Great pitching (Arkansas 2001, Tennessee 2002, Wake Forest 2003) does not win the College World Series. Arkansas needs offense and they need it quick. They close at College Station and I think the Aggies kill them as it stands now as Arkansas has ZERO room for error offensively. Ironically, they did score better in their last 2 games in SC but still lost one of them after winning 2-1 on Friday.

Florida got off to a terrible start but kept their rankings for longer than they deserved. Their highwater mark was a 2-1 series win over Texas A&M on 3 close games. But their low water mark was an embarrassing sweep at Missouri. They've lost four straight series (@ Mizzou, SC, @ Vandy, @ Ark) after winning their first three. The Gators close with consecutive home series against TN and KY and close at UGA. All top-10 RPI teams. Their offense - despite Caglianone- ranks 11th in the league in SEC games only. To prove how they are offensively, the Gators have 30 HRs in SEC play. Cags has 13. They have 222 team SEC strikeouts. Only SC and MZ is worse. Tennessee is 3rd in team average.

Over the last three weeks. the Vols play Florida, Vanderbilt and South Carolina. FL is the 11th offensively (AVG); SC is 8th and VU is 6th. This is SEC stats only.
Pitching wise, (ERA) FL is 8th, SC is 7th and VU is 5th. (Tenn is 4th)

In SEC play.

Tennessee has 85 HRs
VU 21
SC 29
FL 38

Tenn BA is .302
VU .264
SC .260
FL 240

Tenn Runs 174
VU 696
SC 703
FL 114

Tenn BB 85
VU 62
SC 115
FL 87


TENN pitching ER
Tenn 97
VU 100
SC 118
FL 120

Fielding
Tenn .978
VU .975
FL .977
SC .980


In SEC Play, C-Mo leads the league in Avg (.424) Hits (39) HRs (14) total Bases (87) and 2nd in RBI (29)

As a team. In conference games.
Tennessee is:
3rd in Average (.302) KY (314)
1st in Slugging (.611)
4th in OBP .386 KY (408)
3rd in runs scored (174) TAMU (196)
3rd in Hits (214) TAMU (234)
3rd in RBIs (163) TAMU (186)
2nd in Doubles (46) TAMU (47)
1st in HR (57)
2nd in total bases (433) TAMU (452)

4th in team ERA (4.99) Arkansas (3.37)
2nd in saves (7) Arkansas (9) The last two weekend providing much these 7
1st in Walks (56) 10 ahead of TAMU
3rd in runs allowed (107) Ark (75)

It is clear in looking at the stats, that the strength of UT's pitching is not allowing freebies.

Tenn ranks 11th in Opp BA .283
10th in strike outs (178)
10th in Hits allowed (196)
9th in HR allowed (36)

Contrast this with the "freebie" stats
Walks : 1st
Hit Batters: 2nd
Wild Pitches: 1st
Runners Picked Off: 1st
Caught stealing: 4th
Stolen bases: 4th
Steal Attempts against: 4th

Tennessee may give up a good deal of HR's but it's clear this is a lot of solo shots. You're not going to beat Tennessee with solo HRs.
Plus, Tennessee has given up 10 unearned runs in SEC play in 21 games.
It's amazing that Tennessee has only walked 56 guys and Arkansas- the top pitching team has walked 90.
 
#2
#2
Tuesday
RPI # 228 Lipscomb at Tennessee
Georgia at #79 Kennesaw State -this will be a good game to watch)
#224 Tennessee Tech at Vanderbilt
# 264 Lindenwood at Missouri
# 169 Tarleton State at Texas A&M
#269 Grambling at LSU
#128 Missouri State at Arkansas


Wednesday
#128 Missouri State @ Arkansas
#52 ETSU at South Carolina
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State (non conference- Pearl, Miss.) Ole Miss won prior series 2-1 in Oxford.

Thursday-Saturday
Tennessee at Florida

Friday- Sunday
Arkansas at Kentucky
Ole Miss at Auburn
Alabama at Miss. State
South Carolina at Missouri
Texas A&M at LSU
Vanderbilt at Georgia

Several teams remain in catbird seat for NCAA hosting:
Arkansas
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Kentucky


The first 3 are firmly in national seed position. Kentucky- although a high RPI, now appears to be a paper tiger with losers of 4 of last 6 SEC games with Arkansas coming to town.

Those close?

South Carolina strengthened their argument and would be a top-16 host if season ended now.
I think Miss. State has now taken Vanderbilt's spot. Miss State has better SEC record and is trending way up. VU has better overall record. Head-to-head matters as it was played at Vanderbilt.
Alabama is inching closer. They travel to Starkville and their schedule is very soft with LSU and Auburn at end.
Georgia is on the outside looking in and needs to close strong. That series against Vanderbilt will be huge. Avoiding sweep at aTm was a positive.

STANDINGS

West
Arkansas...........16-5............--
Texas A&M......15-6...........1.0
Miss State........12-9...........4.0
Alabama..........9-12............7.0
LSU....................7-14............9.0
Ole Miss..........7-14............9.0
Auburn...........3-18..............13.0

East
Kentucky...........16-5.............--
Tennessee.........15-6............1.0
So.Carolina.......11-10.....55.0 (SC hold tiebreaker over VU)
Vanderbilt.........11-10........5.0.
Georgia..............10-11.........6.0
Florida.................9-12........77.0
Missouri.............6-15...........10.0

Overall
Arkansas...........16-5...........--
Kentucky...........16-5............--
Tennessee.........15-6...........1.0
Texas A&M......15-6...........1.0
Miss State........12-9...........4.0
So.Carolina.......11-10.....55.0
Vanderbilt.........11-10........5.0.
Georgia..............10-11.......6.0
Florida.................9-12......77.0
Alabama............9-12..........7.0
LSU.....................7-14...........9.0
Ole Misss..........7-14..........9.0

Missouri..........6-15...........10.0
Auburn............3-18............13.0

Auburn is as close to eliminated from post season as you can get. They did steal their 3rd conference win in Baton Rouge on Sunday. Their RPI remains surprisingly high at 43. They are 4 games out of #12 spot but are hosting Ole Miss this week and go to Mizzou next. They could get 4-5 win the next 2 weeks and that series at home against Alabama may be for a spot.

LSU is in a bind. They needed to sweep last weekend against Auburn and didn't get it with a bad final game at home. They have 2 series at home (TAMU and close with Ole Miss with a trip to Alabama in between. LSU's RPI is 42. They need to win those 2 home series to have a shot at NCAA. Or lose the TAMU series (no sweep) and replace that with a series win at Bama.

Alabama- as we said, is hoping to host but they have only 1 more home series (LSU) but go first to Starkville and close at Auburn. Their RPI is 15 which looks go. If they win all three series, then they are a lock to host.

SEC RPI

1.....Texas A&M
2.....Arkansas
3.....Kentucky
5.....Tennessee
9.....Georgia
11...South Carolina
15...Alabama
22...Florida
23...Vanderbilt
27...Ole Miss
28. Mississippi State
42...LSU
43. Auburn
91. Missouri


I went into this weekend thinking that Missouri is the least talented team in the SEC. I think they are better than I thought after seeing them -even with the Beer League softball uniforms. I don't think they were incredibly well coached with some atrocious mental mistakes - especially on base paths. But maybe they had bad weekend.
It is interesting that Wes Rucker noted on X that UT's worst OPS in their lineup (Cal Stark) was higher than Mizzou's best OPS.

Auburn's schedule draw in 2024 was simply brutal as they played the top four teams (Ark, A&M, Tenn and KY) in weeks 2-5 after being swept decisively at Vanderbilt in week 1. In fact, their first subpar SEC opponent was LSU over the weekend - and even this was on road. Ole Miss this coming weekend, is their first "winnable" series with a road trip the next week to Mizzou being their second. I think LSU is worse than Auburn but had the benefit of playin in B-R. It is amazing how many close games Auburn has lost in SEC play. They lost to Arkansas twice by 1 run. Swept @ A&M by 7 total runs. Lost two 2-run games at Miss St. Lost a 1 run game at LSU.

The Arkansas / Kentucky series this week is big. As we've learned; great pitching beats great hitting. I'm not sure Kentucky qualifies as great hitters though but they are at home. The Sat/Sun games are both in afternoon, which I feels favors Arkansas as they avoid the light dimming at KPP for night games. Here's what we've learned since 2001- Great pitching (Arkansas 2001, Tennessee 2002, Wake Forest 2003) does not win the College World Series. Arkansas needs offense and they need it quick. They close at College Station and I think the Aggies kill them as it stands now as Arkansas has ZERO room for error offensively. Ironically, they did score better in their last 2 games in SC but still lost one of them after winning 2-1 on Friday.

Florida got off to a terrible start but kept their rankings for longer than they deserved. Their highwater mark was a 2-1 series win over Texas A&M on 3 close games. But their low water mark was an embarrassing sweep at Missouri. They've lost four straight series (@ Mizzou, SC, @ Vandy, @ Ark) after winning their first three. The Gators close with consecutive home series against TN and KY and close at UGA. All top-10 RPI teams. Their offense - despite Caglianone- ranks 11th in the league in SEC games only. To prove how they are offensively, the Gators have 30 HRs in SEC play. Cags has 13. They have 222 team SEC strikeouts. Only SC and MZ is worse. Tennessee is 3rd in team average.

Over the last three weeks. the Vols play Florida, Vanderbilt and South Carolina. FL is the 11th offensively (AVG); SC is 8th and VU is 6th. This is SEC stats only.
Pitching wise, (ERA) FL is 8th, SC is 7th and VU is 5th. (Tenn is 4th)

In SEC play.

Tennessee has 85 HRs
VU 21
SC 29
FL 38

Tenn BA is .302
VU .264
SC .260
FL 240

Tenn Runs 174
VU 696
SC 703
FL 114

Tenn BB 85
VU 62
SC 115
FL 87


TENN pitching ER
Tenn 97
VU 100
SC 118
FL 120

Fielding
Tenn .978
VU .975
FL .977
SC .980


In SEC Play, C-Mo leads the league in Avg (.424) Hits (39) HRs (14) total Bases (87) and 2nd in RBI (29)

As a team. In conference games.
Tennessee is:
3rd in Average (.302) KY (314)
1st in Slugging (.611)
4th in OBP .386 KY (408)
3rd in runs scored (174) TAMU (196)
3rd in Hits (214) TAMU (234)
3rd in RBIs (163) TAMU (186)
2nd in Doubles (46) TAMU (47)
1st in HR (57)
2nd in total bases (433) TAMU (452)

4th in team ERA (4.99) Arkansas (3.37)
2nd in saves (7) Arkansas (9) The last two weekend providing much these 7
1st in Walks (56) 10 ahead of TAMU
3rd in runs allowed (107) Ark (75)

It is clear in looking at the stats, that the strength of UT's pitching is not allowing freebies.

Tenn ranks 11th in Opp BA .283
10th in strike outs (178)
10th in Hits allowed (196)
9th in HR allowed (36)

Contrast this with the "freebie" stats
Walks : 1st
Hit Batters: 2nd
Wild Pitches: 1st
Runners Picked Off: 1st
Caught stealing: 4th
Stolen bases: 4th
Steal Attempts against: 4th

Tennessee may give up a good deal of HR's but it's clear this is a lot of solo shots. You're not going to beat Tennessee with solo HRs.
Plus, Tennessee has given up 10 unearned runs in SEC play in 21 games.
It's amazing that Tennessee has only walked 56 guys and Arkansas- the top pitching team has walked 90.
Nice work and much appreciated Frye !
 
#3
#3
@fryeguy93 Great work see that Tennessee's In SEC play HRs is off should be 57.

VU & SC runs look off.

FYI!

If using the SEC site for your SEC stats be aware that the Texas A&M stats are off, somehow they rolled A&M vs Houston game stats into SEC game only data. That probably affects those standings.


Shows A&M having played 22 SEC games vs 21

1714394008217.png
 
Last edited:
#4
#4
@fryeguy93 Great work see that Tennessee's In SEC play HRs is off should be 57.

VU & SC runs look off.

FYI!

If using the SEC site for your SEC stats be aware that the Texas A&M stats are off, somehow they rolled A&M vs Houston game stats into SEC game only data. That probably affects those standings.


Shows A&M having played 22 SEC games vs 21

View attachment 637531
I noticed the TAMU games played error. But that appears to be a typo as they could not have played 22 games.

The other errors, were mine. (It was early)
 
#7
#7
@fryeguy93
What are the chances a 12-18 Sec team makes the postseason? Namely talking to you Lsu and Florida!
Depends more on how the other conference do than what the SEC does.

Right now, this does not appear to be a season where the one bid team leagues will produce a rare second or third team.

TheBig10 is not a premier conference by any means but they have a handful of teams. The Big10 had three teams make NCAA last season (Maryland, Indiana, Iowa) and two (Maryland, Michigan) in 2022.

Nebraska has the best RPI in Big10 but sit in 3rd place behind Purdue (62) and Illinois (66) both at 11-4. The next highest RPI is Maryland in 9th place (RPI 39). This looks like a one bid league to me. Should Nebraska loses to Creighton (again) tomorrow night and fail to win the B1G with their remaining schedule, then the tourney winner should get the only bid. Huskers get a boost this week with Creighton and K-state but will go down the rest of the season no matter how they perform. I don't see three bids which would leave an extra for everyone else.

Speaking of Creighton, the BigEast is having a strong year and are the 6th rated conference. That group got 1 teams (Xavier) in the field last season. 1st place Uconn sits at 40RPI. Xavier is 4th place at 35. SJU is 57 and 3rd place and Georgetown has been rolling lately and is in 2nd place with a 63. Creighton is 5th at 54. That looks like a possible 2 or 3 bid league. Creighton still plays Nebraska, @ ST Johns, @ Uconn in next 2 weeks. They could vault into the top 30. The Jays beat Coastal Carolina twice last week and have won important games against UTSA, UIC, Stanford (x2)

I think the BigEast will get a 2nd team.

CUSA is bleeding members and are the 9th highest rated conference. The are a consistent 2 bid league. However. Only DBU is top 20 and they are in third behinn #90 WKU and #44 LaTech. DBU is nto getting a bid if they don't win that conference.


Pac12 baseball is falling apart. Only 1 team (OSU) in RPI top 20. and Arizona at #32. Utah is tied for first place with AZ at 14-7 and OSU is 12-8 and third. The Pac for 5 team in last season. I don't see them getting that in 2024

The American gets 1-2 teams a year but sit in 10th place. ECU is top-10 but no one else is highter than 97. 1 Bid

Missouri Valley. ONe. Indiana State. However if another team win tourney the Sycamores would be an at -large.

The Sunbelt is th3 5th highest rated conference. I would place them and the Big East (#7) ahead of Big10. The Fun Belt has got 4 bids that last 2 seasons after only 1 in 2021. This conference has some mayhem going on.

Louisiana is ranked in many polls but is only #51 RPI but in first place.
Coastal is RPI #24 but sits in 6th place (11-10) after 5 straight losses. They have the best RPI

1. Louisiana 51
2. Troy 47
3. Southern Miss 46
3. Georgia Southern 78
5 Appalachian State 74
6 Coastal Carolina 24
6 James Madison 30
9 South Alabama 73
9 Georgia State 86
11 Texas State 120
12 ULM 147
13 Arkansas State 197
14 Marshall 193

Coastal's schedule (after a visit to Applebee-less Hattiesburg) gets significantly easier. I have to believe they can finish at least 3rd. But USM plays soft teams after this week as well. I can't see 4 teams making the tournament. But I can't imagine the committee would leave out a 4th place CCU team either. Louisiana and Troy play this weekend in AL. The winner's respective RPI's will improve. USM does not play CCU

I'm just spitballin' I think the ACC and SEC have an excellent chance to get bonus teams in. It will be hard for the committee to bypass both NCAA finalists. Caglianone and Tommy White. The SEC got 10 teams in '23. 9 teams in '22 an 9 teams in '21. That 9th team in '22 won the title.

There were no 12-18 teams in 2023. UGA was the first team left out at 11-19
In 2022- Kentucky finished 12-18 and Alabama finished 12-17 (1 less game) and were left out. KY was RPI 47 and AL was 45

FL is currently at .429 -(#22) ahead of that pace and LSU is .333 (#42) is behind that pace. LSU has a series against the best balanced team aTm this wekeend and go to AL next weekend. They're not getting to 12 wins as they would need to go 5-4 the rest o fthe way. Even if they could sweep Ole Miss in week 10.- and they've not swept Missouri or Auburn; they would need 2 wins against aTm and AL.

Florida needs 3 wins. to get to 12. (TN/KY/@UGA) 4 gets them in. If they don't win any of these last three series (2-1 each) that would mean they would have lost their last 7 series dating back to Miss. State in late March. This cancels out their 3 series wins at the start (aTm, LSU, MSU). UF needs to win at least 1 of these closing 3 series. Two will get them in. 1 is a maybe. 0 means their guys get to the cape early. I don't think the committee can let a 10th SEC team with 7 straight series losses no mater their RPI and SOS. Not with their out-of-conference losses. But they played Arkansas close. But Arkansas does not really blow any one out offensively. Gators face 3 of the top 4 offenses in league. In ever-warming weather.
 
Last edited:
#8
#8
Depends more on how the other conference do than what the SEC does.

Right now, this does not appear to be a season where the one bid team leagues will produce a rare second or third team.

TheBig10 is not a premier conference by any means but they have a handful of teams. The Big10 had three teams make NCAA last season (Maryland, Indiana, Iowa) and two (Maryland, Michigan) in 2022.

Nebraska has the best RPI in Big10 but sit in 3rd place behind Purdue (62) and Illinois (66) both at 11-4. The next highest RPI is Maryland in 9th place (RPI 39). This looks like a one bid league to me. Should Nebraska loses to Creighton (again) tomorrow night and fail to win the B1G with their remaining schedule, then the tourney winner should get the only bid. Huskers get a boost this week with Creighton and K-state but will go down the rest of the season no matter how they perform. I don't see three bids which would leave an extra for everyone else.

Speaking of Creighton, the BigEast is having a strong year and are the 6th rated conference. That group got 1 teams (Xavier) in the field last season. 1st place Uconn sits at 40RPI. Xavier is 4th place at 35. SJU is 57 and 3rd place and Georgetown has been rolling lately and is in 2nd place with a 63. Creighton is 5th at 54. That looks like a possible 2 or 3 bid league. Creighton still plays Nebraska, @ ST Johns, @ Uconn in next 2 weeks. They could vault into the top 30. The Jays beat Coastal Carolina twice last week and have won important games against UTSA, UIC, Stanford (x2)

I think the BigEast will get a 2nd team.

CUSA is bleeding members and are the 9th highest rated conference. The are a consistent 2 bid league. However. Only DBU is top 20 and they are in third behinn #90 WKU and #44 LaTech. DBU is nto getting a bid if they don't win that conference.


Pac12 baseball is falling apart. Only 1 team (OSU) in RPI top 20. and Arizona at #32. Utah is tied for first place with AZ at 14-7 and OSU is 12-8 and third. The Pac for 5 team in last season. I don't see them getting that in 2024

The American gets 1-2 teams a year but sit in 10th place. ECU is top-10 but no one else is highter than 97. 1 Bid

Missouri Valley. ONe. Indiana State. However if another team win tourney the Sycamores would be an at -large.

The Sunbelt is th3 5th highest rated conference. I would place them and the Big East (#7) ahead of Big10. The Fun Belt has got 4 bids that last 2 seasons after only 1 in 2021. This conference has some mayhem going on.

Louisiana is ranked in many polls but is only #51 RPI but in first place.
Coastal is RPI #24 but sits in 6th place (11-10) after 5 straight losses. They have the best RPI

1. Louisiana 51
2. Troy 47
3. Southern Miss 46
3. Georgia Southern 78
5 Appalachian State 74
6 Coastal Carolina 24
6 James Madison 30
9 South Alabama 73
9 Georgia State 86
11 Texas State 120
12 ULM 147
13 Arkansas State 197
14 Marshall 193

Coastal's schedule (after a visit to Applebee-less Hattiesburg) gets significantly easier. I have to believe they can finish at least 3rd. But USM plays soft teams after this week as well. I can't see 4 teams making the tournament. But I can't imagine the committee would leave out a 4th place CCU team either. Louisiana and Troy play this weekend in AL. The winner's respective RPI's will improve. USM does not play CCU

I'm just spitballin' I think the ACC and SEC have an excellent chance to get bonus teams in. It will be hard for the committee to bypass both NCAA finalists. Caglianone and Tommy White. The SEC got 10 teams in '23. 9 teams in '22 an 9 teams in '21. That 9th team in '22 won the title.

There were no 12-18 teams in 2023. UGA was the first team left out at 11-19
In 2022- Kentucky finished 12-18 and Alabama finished 12-17 (1 less game) and were left out. KY was RPI 47 and AL was 45

FL is currently at .429 -(#22) ahead of that pace and LSU is .333 (#42) is behind that pace. LSU has a series against the best balanced team aTm this wekeend and go to AL next weekend. They're not getting to 12 wins as they would need to go 5-4 the rest o fthe way. Even if they could sweep Ole Miss in week 10.- and they've not swept Missouri or Auburn; they would need 2 wins against aTm and AL.

Florida needs 3 wins. to get to 12. (TN/KY/@UGA) 4 gets them in. If they don't win any of these last three series (2-1 each) that would mean they would have lost their last 7 series dating back to Miss. State in late March. This cancels out their 3 series wins at the start (aTm, LSU, MSU). UF needs to win at least 1 of these closing 3 series. Two will get them in. 1 is a maybe. 0 means their guys get to the cape early. I don't think the committee can let a 10th SEC team with 7 straight series losses no mater their RPI and SOS. Not with their out-of-conference losses. But they played Arkansas close. But Arkansas does not really blow any one out offensively. Gators face 3 of the top 4 offenses in league. In ever-warming weather.
Thanks for the write up. Seems like 13 is going to need to be the magic number to get in then. LSU probably isn’t getting there but it’s possible. Florida may get there..but they just might not! I think Dallas Baptist will find a spot in even if they do not win their conference but time will tell on that of course. This is a great month ahead of us for sure!
 
#9
#9
Thanks for the write up. Seems like 13 is going to need to be the magic number to get in then. LSU probably isn’t getting there but it’s possible. Florida may get there..but they just might not! I think Dallas Baptist will find a spot in even if they do not win their conference but time will tell on that of course. This is a great month ahead of us for sure!

I think the committee has done a good job recently identifying the RPI "Outliers"

If you recall, Tennessee was #1 RPI for much of 2022; but DBU held the spot for the second most weeks despite having far more losses than Tennessee.

Kentucky is playing the number game as well that last few seasons and the committee has recognized that UK was not a top-tier team and overly seeded them.
 
#10
#10
I think the committee has done a good job recently identifying the RPI "Outliers"

If you recall, Tennessee was #1 RPI for much of 2022; but DBU held the spot for the second most weeks despite having far more losses than Tennessee.

Kentucky is playing the number game as well that last few seasons and the committee has recognized that UK was not a top-tier team and overly seeded them.
Yes it is going to cost UK hosting a super by looks of it. I may have selfish reasons with DBU..they are one of my secondary teams I like pulling for.
 
  • Like
Reactions: gnm53108
#11
#11
Yes it is going to cost UK hosting a super by looks of it. I may have selfish reasons with DBU..they are one of my secondary teams I like pulling for.

Best thing for the SEC would be Kentucky beating Arkansas this weekend. But the whole Baby Shark cheerleader **** and the housing of teams in dorms last season makes me want to see Arkansas shut them out for three straight games. AND I ABHOR ARKANSAS.

With a third straight series loss with a weak early conference schedule, I don't see how they could keep UK in top-16 no matter what their RPI is.
 
  • Like
Reactions: volplaya8
#12
#12
Best thing for the SEC would be Kentucky beating Arkansas this weekend. But the whole Baby Shark cheerleader **** and the housing of teams in dorms last season makes me want to see Arkansas shut them out for three straight games. AND I ABHOR ARKANSAS.

With a third straight series loss
The dorm stunt in a city the size of Lexington should never have been allowed to occur. Not sure who I want to win that series yet…but I don’t think I want a sweep either way. Leaning to 2-1 Arkansas at the moment.
 
#13
#13
The dorm stunt in a city the size of Lexington should never have been allowed to occur. Not sure who I want to win that series yet…but I don’t think I want a sweep either way. Leaning to 2-1 Arkansas at the moment.
I understand that UK did not want to give up the hosting spot; but why was the NCAA so adamant to give them one?

With the music festival, and other events, there were simply ZERO hotels in a city with a shortage of hotel space anyway for a city their size.

I have to believe the NCAA would not cut them a break this year as I understand there will be little space during the regionals again.

UK could have at least made the dorm rooms more like hotel space. Then consider the poor families and fans of other teams who had even fewer options. I guess the visiting teams were lucky they were not given pup tents and sent to the arboretum. Indiana State voluntarily did not bid on super regional because of annual Special Olympics events on campus. Not UK!.

There's a reason Kentucky is clearly the most "One-Sport School" in the conference. Any other sports they occasionally win at is completely accidental. I'm guessing nothing has been done to address the issue since 2023.; and Barnhart and the super happy dugout cheerleader brigade will submit the same packet this spring and just expect to get the bid.
 
  • Like
Reactions: volplaya8
#14
#14
@fryeguy93 Great work see that Tennessee's In SEC play HRs is off should be 57.

VU & SC runs look off.

FYI!

If using the SEC site for your SEC stats be aware that the Texas A&M stats are off, somehow they rolled A&M vs Houston game stats into SEC game only data. That probably affects those standings.


Shows A&M having played 22 SEC games vs 21

View attachment 637531

That's better. Thanks SEC....don't screw it up again!

1714412194358.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: fryeguy93
#15
#15
I understand that UK did not want to give up the hosting spot; but why was the NCAA so adamant to give them one?

With the music festival, and other events, there were simply ZERO hotels in a city with a shortage of hotel space anyway for a city their size.

I have to believe the NCAA would not cut them a break this year as I understand there will be little space during the regionals again.

UK could have at least made the dorm rooms more like hotel space. Then consider the poor families and fans of other teams who had even fewer options. I guess the visiting teams were lucky they were not given pup tents and sent to the arboretum. Indiana State voluntarily did not bid on super regional because of annual Special Olympics events on campus. Not UK!.

There's a reason Kentucky is clearly the most "One-Sport School" in the conference. Any other sports they occasionally win at is completely accidental. I'm guessing nothing has been done to address the issue since 2023.; and Barnhart and the super happy dugout cheerleader brigade will submit the same packet this spring and just expect to get the bid.
Kentucky should be required to guarantee hotel rooms going forward if they want to host events like that. I get that they are playing solid overall baseball and they have a decent ballpark but everything else associated with that program is a joke.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MagnoliaVol
#16
#16
You talk about 13 being the magic number, obviously reg season wins .. how does hoover results factor? Would a good run there let a 12 sneak in over a 13?
 
#17
#17
Tuesday
RPI # 228 Lipscomb at Tennessee
Georgia at #79 Kennesaw State -this will be a good game to watch)
#224 Tennessee Tech at Vanderbilt
# 264 Lindenwood at Missouri
# 169 Tarleton State at Texas A&M
#269 Grambling at LSU
#128 Missouri State at Arkansas


Wednesday
#128 Missouri State @ Arkansas
#52 ETSU at South Carolina
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State (non conference- Pearl, Miss.) Ole Miss won prior series 2-1 in Oxford.

Thursday-Saturday
Tennessee at Florida

Friday- Sunday
Arkansas at Kentucky
Ole Miss at Auburn
Alabama at Miss. State
South Carolina at Missouri
Texas A&M at LSU
Vanderbilt at Georgia

Several teams remain in catbird seat for NCAA hosting:
Arkansas
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Kentucky


The first 3 are firmly in national seed position. Kentucky- although a high RPI, now appears to be a paper tiger with losers of 4 of last 6 SEC games with Arkansas coming to town.

Those close?

South Carolina strengthened their argument and would be a top-16 host if season ended now.
I think Miss. State has now taken Vanderbilt's spot. Miss State has better SEC record and is trending way up. VU has better overall record. Head-to-head matters as it was played at Vanderbilt.
Alabama is inching closer. They travel to Starkville and their schedule is very soft with LSU and Auburn at end.
Georgia is on the outside looking in and needs to close strong. That series against Vanderbilt will be huge. Avoiding sweep at aTm was a positive.

STANDINGS

West
Arkansas...........16-5............--
Texas A&M......15-6...........1.0
Miss State........12-9...........4.0
Alabama..........9-12............7.0
LSU....................7-14............9.0
Ole Miss..........7-14............9.0
Auburn...........3-18..............13.0

East
Kentucky...........16-5.............--
Tennessee.........15-6............1.0
So.Carolina.......11-10.....55.0 (SC hold tiebreaker over VU)
Vanderbilt.........11-10........5.0.
Georgia..............10-11.........6.0
Florida.................9-12........77.0
Missouri.............6-15...........10.0

Overall
Arkansas...........16-5...........--
Kentucky...........16-5............--
Tennessee.........15-6...........1.0
Texas A&M......15-6...........1.0
Miss State........12-9...........4.0
So.Carolina.......11-10.....55.0
Vanderbilt.........11-10........5.0.
Georgia..............10-11.......6.0
Florida.................9-12......77.0
Alabama............9-12..........7.0
LSU.....................7-14...........9.0
Ole Misss..........7-14..........9.0

Missouri..........6-15...........10.0
Auburn............3-18............13.0

Auburn is as close to eliminated from post season as you can get. They did steal their 3rd conference win in Baton Rouge on Sunday. Their RPI remains surprisingly high at 43. They are 4 games out of #12 spot but are hosting Ole Miss this week and go to Mizzou next. They could get 4-5 win the next 2 weeks and that series at home against Alabama may be for a spot.

LSU is in a bind. They needed to sweep last weekend against Auburn and didn't get it with a bad final game at home. They have 2 series at home (TAMU and close with Ole Miss with a trip to Alabama in between. LSU's RPI is 42. They need to win those 2 home series to have a shot at NCAA. Or lose the TAMU series (no sweep) and replace that with a series win at Bama.

Alabama- as we said, is hoping to host but they have only 1 more home series (LSU) but go first to Starkville and close at Auburn. Their RPI is 15 which looks go. If they win all three series, then they are a lock to host.

SEC RPI

1.....Texas A&M
2.....Arkansas
3.....Kentucky
5.....Tennessee
9.....Georgia
11...South Carolina
15...Alabama
22...Florida
23...Vanderbilt
27...Ole Miss
28. Mississippi State
42...LSU
43. Auburn
91. Missouri


I went into this weekend thinking that Missouri is the least talented team in the SEC. I think they are better than I thought after seeing them -even with the Beer League softball uniforms. I don't think they were incredibly well coached with some atrocious mental mistakes - especially on base paths. But maybe they had bad weekend.
It is interesting that Wes Rucker noted on X that UT's worst OPS in their lineup (Cal Stark) was higher than Mizzou's best OPS.

Auburn's schedule draw in 2024 was simply brutal as they played the top four teams (Ark, A&M, Tenn and KY) in weeks 2-5 after being swept decisively at Vanderbilt in week 1. In fact, their first subpar SEC opponent was LSU over the weekend - and even this was on road. Ole Miss this coming weekend, is their first "winnable" series with a road trip the next week to Mizzou being their second. I think LSU is worse than Auburn but had the benefit of playin in B-R. It is amazing how many close games Auburn has lost in SEC play. They lost to Arkansas twice by 1 run. Swept @ A&M by 7 total runs. Lost two 2-run games at Miss St. Lost a 1 run game at LSU.

The Arkansas / Kentucky series this week is big. As we've learned; great pitching beats great hitting. I'm not sure Kentucky qualifies as great hitters though but they are at home. The Sat/Sun games are both in afternoon, which I feels favors Arkansas as they avoid the light dimming at KPP for night games. Here's what we've learned since 2001- Great pitching (Arkansas 2001, Tennessee 2002, Wake Forest 2003) does not win the College World Series. Arkansas needs offense and they need it quick. They close at College Station and I think the Aggies kill them as it stands now as Arkansas has ZERO room for error offensively. Ironically, they did score better in their last 2 games in SC but still lost one of them after winning 2-1 on Friday.

Florida got off to a terrible start but kept their rankings for longer than they deserved. Their highwater mark was a 2-1 series win over Texas A&M on 3 close games. But their low water mark was an embarrassing sweep at Missouri. They've lost four straight series (@ Mizzou, SC, @ Vandy, @ Ark) after winning their first three. The Gators close with consecutive home series against TN and KY and close at UGA. All top-10 RPI teams. Their offense - despite Caglianone- ranks 11th in the league in SEC games only. To prove how they are offensively, the Gators have 30 HRs in SEC play. Cags has 13. They have 222 team SEC strikeouts. Only SC and MZ is worse. Tennessee is 3rd in team average.

Over the last three weeks. the Vols play Florida, Vanderbilt and South Carolina. FL is the 11th offensively (AVG); SC is 8th and VU is 6th. This is SEC stats only.
Pitching wise, (ERA) FL is 8th, SC is 7th and VU is 5th. (Tenn is 4th)

In SEC play.

Tennessee has 85 HRs
VU 21
SC 29
FL 38

Tenn BA is .302
VU .264
SC .260
FL 240

Tenn Runs 174
VU 696
SC 703
FL 114

Tenn BB 85
VU 62
SC 115
FL 87


TENN pitching ER
Tenn 97
VU 100
SC 118
FL 120

Fielding
Tenn .978
VU .975
FL .977
SC .980


In SEC Play, C-Mo leads the league in Avg (.424) Hits (39) HRs (14) total Bases (87) and 2nd in RBI (29)

As a team. In conference games.
Tennessee is:
3rd in Average (.302) KY (314)
1st in Slugging (.611)
4th in OBP .386 KY (408)
3rd in runs scored (174) TAMU (196)
3rd in Hits (214) TAMU (234)
3rd in RBIs (163) TAMU (186)
2nd in Doubles (46) TAMU (47)
1st in HR (57)
2nd in total bases (433) TAMU (452)

4th in team ERA (4.99) Arkansas (3.37)
2nd in saves (7) Arkansas (9) The last two weekend providing much these 7
1st in Walks (56) 10 ahead of TAMU
3rd in runs allowed (107) Ark (75)

It is clear in looking at the stats, that the strength of UT's pitching is not allowing freebies.

Tenn ranks 11th in Opp BA .283
10th in strike outs (178)
10th in Hits allowed (196)
9th in HR allowed (36)

Contrast this with the "freebie" stats
Walks : 1st
Hit Batters: 2nd
Wild Pitches: 1st
Runners Picked Off: 1st
Caught stealing: 4th
Stolen bases: 4th
Steal Attempts against: 4th

Tennessee may give up a good deal of HR's but it's clear this is a lot of solo shots. You're not going to beat Tennessee with solo HRs.
Plus, Tennessee has given up 10 unearned runs in SEC play in 21 games.
It's amazing that Tennessee has only walked 56 guys and Arkansas- the top pitching team has walked 90.

Gainesville and Nashville have historically been tough spots for the Base Vols to put up long winning streaks at the opposing venues.
 
  • Like
Reactions: chuckiepoo
#18
#18
You talk about 13 being the magic number, obviously reg season wins .. how does hoover results factor? Would a good run there let a 12 sneak in over a 13?
They do take into account Hoover wins. So if you went to Hoover with 12 wins and won 3 games, they would consider that 15 SEC wins. That team would propably get a regional spot.
 
  • Like
Reactions: chuckiepoo
#19
#19
You talk about 13 being the magic number, obviously reg season wins .. how does hoover results factor? Would a good run there let a 12 sneak in over a 13?
They do take into account Hoover wins. So if you went to Hoover with 12 wins and won 3 games, they would consider that 15 SEC wins. That team would propably get a regional spot.
This is not the case…take for instance 2022. Ole Miss was 14-16 and went 0-1 in Hoover and got in while Kentucky was 12-18 and won 3 games in Hoover…also remember that means they had to take two losses as well…Now a team theoretically could make it in but easily could be held out as well…probably lean more to the held out under that scenario as it has played out before. Some of that depends on how other conferences fair. @fryeguy93 may know…but I know very little if any 12 win teams have made it in.
 
  • Like
Reactions: chuckiepoo

VN Store



Back
Top