What’s the floor and what’s the ceiling?

[bofa25]

I’m not sure who all can remember the coaching search that landed us CJH, but the candidates considered were meant to raise the floor of the program. Assessing where the program is, the floor has objectively been raised. It looks like the Tennessee of the early 2000s, but not the one of the 90s, yet. Looking at recruiting since CJH has shown up, the numbers are similar to Clemson from 2012-2019. However, I cannot find where a program has amassed quarterback talent like Tennessee, assuming they sign Merklinger and Mctyner. The closest comparison would be the first few years of Texas A&M under Sumlin, but even their talent wouldn’t match Tennessee’s. So, the question is, what is Tennessee’s ceiling under Heup? I would guess it is the Clemson of the last decade. What’s your projection for the next 5 to 10 years? Can he make it that long?

 

[tellicoflash]

9-3 Ceiling 7-5 Floor

 

[Rocky Top T]

7-10 wins. Average about 8

 

[bpalmer28]

We are good enough to beat anyone in the country, but inconsistent enough to get beat by most of the teams left on our schedule.

Ceiling is 10 wins. Floor is 7 wins.

 

[Woodlawn VOL]

Ceiling is win out, weak floor is 7 but would be disappointing and don’t see it happening. 8-4 floor or 10-2 Ceiling is most likely. I personally think we go 10-2 or 9-3 in regular season. And yes 10-2 could still get us to Atlanta but all we need to worry about is the next game right now. There are still 5 games left and lots of important games to be played. We have to keep working and keep battling and not listen to the noise. I have no doubt Heupel will have us ready to respond Saturday night! GBO!

 

[VolArmy74]

I assume you're talking long term. The ceiling is CFB playoff contender on an annual basis moving forward. The floor is probably 7-5/8-4 once every few years once we get back to the full boat for scholarships. I could see a long run of 9-11+ win type seasons coming. Especially if they do go to 7-1 scheduling and we aren't having to play every team in the league with more talent on the roster, seemingly every season.

 

[njvols]

9-3 Ceiling 7-5 Floor

Agree. The next game is always the most important one but the KY game will be the game that determines a difference between a pretty good season and a late season slide. KY no slouch and we've not proven we can go anywhere outside the lines of TN to play winning football. We win KY and the UGA game becomes alot more interesting...Neyland will be rocking. Personally, I don't see a W vs KY, but is certainly winnable if everyone can get out of their heads (coaches and players) and play a clean/aggressive game.

 

[VOLfrombama]

I assume you mean long term and not this season.

The ceiling is 15-0. If the D can keep getting better and build quality depth and Heup finds a Qb he can trust, look the f out SEC. We saw what a difference a good Qb makes last season without a D.

The floor is this season. 8-4 or if they can play a whole 60 minutes against Kensucky and Misery, 9-3.

IF Joe has a breakout game AND they play 60 minutes with intensity AND execute the Offense, maybe 10-2. But EVERYTHING will have to go in our favor for that to happen, so 9-3 is probably the best scenario imo.

 

[Volbrando]

if we lose to kentucky... things are going to get ugly

 

[BARknox bouncer]

I assume you mean long term and not this season.

The ceiling is 15-0. If the D can keep getting better and build quality depth and Heup finds a Qb he can trust, look the f out SEC. We saw what a difference a good Qb makes last season without a D.

The floor is this season. 8-4 or if they can play a whole 60 minutes against Kensucky and Misery, 9-3.

IF Joe has a breakout game AND they play 60 minutes with intensity AND execute the Offense, maybe 10-2. But EVERYTHING will have to go in our favor for that to happen, so 9-3 is probably the best scenario imo.

Little early to be dri mong isn't it .said what the ceiling not the fantasy

 

[VOLfrombama]

Little early to be dri mong isn't it .said what the ceiling not the fantasy

You can’t drink all day if you dont start early.

A ceiling is the highest you can go. Just close your eyes and imagine Heup has a good offense with this defense and tell me what you think.

This is year 3 of a 5+ year rebuild. Im looking forward to seeing what happens next year and especially Nicos Junior year.

 

[cherokeeeVOL]

With the way the staff recruits so far, the ceiling is probably 10 regular season wins. 7 for the floor.

 

[Brave Volunteer]

I do believe CJH is the right guy, but we are going to have to be willing to play the long game here. Last year notwithstanding, Tennessee has never been an overnight sensation program. People quickly forget, it took Fulmer 5 seasons to finally win the SEC and that was built on a foundation that took Majors several years to establish. It was also during a time when the SEC as a whole was down. We very well may have to endure several seasons of 8-4, 9-3, etc. before our program is finally in a position to seriously contend for Championships.

Now of course, that was all before NIL and the transfer portal era, so we'll have to see how that plays out but remember, every other program can use those things too. Plus, factor in that Texas and Oklahoma are about to move into the league and things are going to get even tougher.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

10-2 ceiling, 7-5 floor.

 

[cgbtn]

You can’t drink all day if you dont start early.

A ceiling is the highest you can go. Just close your eyes and imagine Heup has a good offense with this defense and tell me what you think.

This is year 3 of a 5+ year rebuild. Im looking forward to seeing what happens next year and especially Nicos Junior year.

I think you mean Nico's red-shirt sophomore year. I think CJH has realized that Joe needs every single rep he can get. CJH is not/cannot run his offense with Joe at QB.

 

[VOLfrombama]

Very possible but Im not counting any scenario out yet. Joe needs to win these next couple games imo. Then we can talk about redshirting. Jmo

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I’m not sure who all can remember the coaching search that landed us CJH, but the candidates considered were meant to raise the floor of the program. Assessing where the program is, the floor has objectively been raised. It looks like the Tennessee of the early 2000s, but not the one of the 90s, yet. Looking at recruiting since CJH has shown up, the numbers are similar to Clemson from 2012-2019. However, I cannot find where a program has amassed quarterback talent like Tennessee, assuming they sign Merklinger and Mctyner. The closest comparison would be the first few years of Texas A&M under Sumlin, but even their talent wouldn’t match Tennessee’s. So, the question is, what is Tennessee’s ceiling under Heup? I would guess it is the Clemson of the last decade. What’s your projection for the next 5 to 10 years? Can he make it that long?

From this point forward, every year (including this year) as long as Heupel is our head coach:

Floor: 8-4
Ceiling: 12-0

SEC play is always challenging enough that a few losses are eternally possible. The better our talent, the more often we'll have seasons at the upper end of that range. But 12-0 is never guaranteed. And 7-5 should never be expected (or accepted).

That's how it is with a powerhouse program led by an excellent head coach. Everything else--great assistant coaches, top end recruiting, effective development, smart scheming, playing to the players' strengths, everthing--follows when you have (a) the resources of Tennessee and (b) a coach like Heupel.

As for your note about Clemson, no. At his very best, Heupel can be as legendary as Neyland, or Saban, with multiple SEC and national titles. Too early to tell if he will reach that plateau, but he has the potential.

Go Vols!

 

[hatingbamaisawayoflife]

Ceiling is win out, weak floor is 7 but would be disappointing and don’t see it happening. 8-4 floor or 10-2 Ceiling is most likely. I personally think we go 10-2 or 9-3 in regular season. And yes 10-2 could still get us to Atlanta but all we need to worry about is the next game right now. There are still 5 games left and lots of important games to be played. We have to keep working and keep battling and not listen to the noise. I have no doubt Heupel will have us ready to respond Saturday night! GBO!

The optimism is wonderful and I wish I had it..
I think the weak floor is realistic as heck.. Kentucky has 2 weeks to prepare.. even though I don't think they are great and generally fall off second half of season we are not great on the road coming off tough loss
uconn we should beat.. we wont beat Georgia and honestly watching mizzou they look better than us.. then beat vandy...
today this is my expectation for the season.

 

[Volador]

My Florida house Ceiling & Floor

 

[bofa25]

I think we’re seeing the floor right now. This is an 8-4 / 9-3 team. Probably what we will have next year as well. I think Heup is a national championship coach. It’s just a matter of time. He reminds me of stoops from the early days at Oklahoma.

 

[Clad in Big Orange]

if we lose to kentucky... things are going to get ugly

Very ugly. If it were possible to have an approval rating for a coach based on the whole fan base, the drop would be significant - like 20 pts hypothetically. As unfair as it is, losses are weighted more than wins and some losses weighted more than others. So many people expect a win over Kentucky each year “just because”. Nevermind that this Vols team hasn’t given a good road game all season.

 

[Clad in Big Orange]

My Florida house Ceiling & Floor
View attachment 590068

Stunning! When are you hosting a VN watch party?

 

[Vol_in_NC_1999]

9-3 ceiling, 7-5 floor. No way are we going to beat GA. Possible we lose to KY and MO, but unlikely. I agree with above poster. This is a 9-3/8-4 team.

 

[tbones0711]

if we lose to kentucky... things are going to get ugly

7-5 will likely be our record if that happens.

 

[Rocky Top T]

Ceiling is win out, weak floor is 7 but would be disappointing and don’t see it happening. 8-4 floor or 10-2 Ceiling is most likely. I personally think we go 10-2 or 9-3 in regular season. And yes 10-2 could still get us to Atlanta but all we need to worry about is the next game right now. There are still 5 games left and lots of important games to be played. We have to keep working and keep battling and not listen to the noise. I have no doubt Heupel will have us ready to respond Saturday night! GBO!

The post was not about this season