What if We Lose to Georgia (Updated 12/4/2024)

[508mikey]

I would not want to play Indiana in the playoffs.

its showing ND anyway

 

[VolCalls]

Irrelevant. We are a better team than Indiana.

Not according to the rankings.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Not according to the rankings.

You think they are infallible? Have you watched them play? Have you watched Penn State play? I have. And I highly doubt either one of those could score 20 on us. If you don’t think we are better than Indiana right now then you need help.

 

[Other_Guy]

Tenn is actually better off losing a close game with Gaston in to where the committee thinks it could've been different if nico played... this would help get Tenn the benefit of the doubt for the playoffs. If Tenn loses with nico? I have a bad feeling they get left out.

 

[mrmax86]

Rk	11/5 CFP	11/9	11/12 CFP My Projection	+/-	11/12 CFP Actual	+/-	Actual vs Projection	Conference	Current Seeding
1	Oregon	W	Oregon		Oregon			Big Ten	1*
2	Ohio St	W	Ohio St		Ohio St			Big Ten	5
3	Georgia	L	Texas	+2	Texas	+2		SEC	2*
4	Miami	L	Penn St	+2	Penn St	+2		Big Ten	6
5	Texas	W	Indiana	+2	Indiana	+3		Big Ten	7
6	Penn St	W	Tennessee	+1	BYU	+3	+1	Big 12	3*
7	Tennessee	W	BYU	+2	Tennessee		-1	SEC	8
8	Indiana	W	ND	+2	ND	+2		Independent	9
9	BYU	W	Alabama	+2	Miami	-5	+4	ACC	4*
10	ND	W	Ole Miss	+6	Alabama	+1	-1	SEC	10
11	Alabama	W	Georgia	-8	Ole Miss	+5	-1	SEC	11
12	Boise	W	Boise		Georgia	-9	-1	SEC
13	SMU	---	Miami	-9	Boise	-1	-1	Mount West	12
14	A&M	---	SMU	-1	SMU	-1		ACC
15	LSU	L	A&M	-1	A&M	-1		SEC
16	Ole Miss	W	Colorado	+4	K State	+3	+1	Big 12
17	Iowa St	L	K State	+2	Colorado	+3	-1	Big 12
18	Pittsburgh	L	Wazzu	+3	Wazzu	+3		PAC 12
19	K State	---	Louisville	+3	Louisville	+3		ACC
20	Colorado	W	Clemson	+3	Clemson	+3		ACC
21	Wazzu	W	Missouri	+3	S. Car	NR	+3	SEC
22	Louisville	---	Army	+3	LSU	-7	+1	SEC
23	Clemson	W	LSU	-8	Missouri	+1	-2	SEC
24	Missouri	W	S. Car	NR	Army	+1	-2	American
25	Army	W	Tulane	NR	Tulane	NR		American

-Really missed on Miami and Georgia
-I had projected they'd put Indiana over us, but didn't expect BYU (WTF)

I will re-post my future "what if we lose" rankings now that we have actuals from last night

 

[Cartervol]

They're looking for a excuse to punt Tennessee..this would be as good as any..

 

[bigorangecrush89]

I dont care if UT makes the playoffs or not. If they do great, if not, fine. Im enjoying the ride and wins over our rivals again. Im not turning my nose up at a 10-win season no matter how it comes.

 

[mrmax86]

Rk	11/5 CFP	11/9	11/12 CFP My Projection	+/-	11/12 CFP Actual	+/-	Actual vs Projection	Conference	Current Seeding
1	Oregon	W	Oregon		Oregon			Big Ten	1*
2	Ohio St	W	Ohio St		Ohio St			Big Ten	5
3	Georgia	L	Texas	+2	Texas	+2		SEC	2*
4	Miami	L	Penn St	+2	Penn St	+2		Big Ten	6
5	Texas	W	Indiana	+2	Indiana	+3		Big Ten	7
6	Penn St	W	Tennessee	+1	BYU	+3	+1	Big 12	3*
7	Tennessee	W	BYU	+2	Tennessee		-1	SEC	8
8	Indiana	W	ND	+2	ND	+2		Independent	9
9	BYU	W	Alabama	+2	Miami	-5	+4	ACC	4*
10	ND	W	Ole Miss	+6	Alabama	+1	-1	SEC	10
11	Alabama	W	Georgia	-8	Ole Miss	+5	-1	SEC	11
12	Boise	W	Boise		Georgia	-9	-1	SEC
13	SMU	---	Miami	-9	Boise	-1	-1	Mount West	12
14	A&M	---	SMU	-1	SMU	-1		ACC
15	LSU	L	A&M	-1	A&M	-1		SEC
16	Ole Miss	W	Colorado	+4	K State	+3	+1	Big 12
17	Iowa St	L	K State	+2	Colorado	+3	-1	Big 12
18	Pittsburgh	L	Wazzu	+3	Wazzu	+3		PAC 12
19	K State	---	Louisville	+3	Louisville	+3		ACC
20	Colorado	W	Clemson	+3	Clemson	+3		ACC
21	Wazzu	W	Missouri	+3	S. Car	NR	+3	SEC
22	Louisville	---	Army	+3	LSU	-7	+1	SEC
23	Clemson	W	LSU	-8	Missouri	+1	-2	SEC
24	Missouri	W	S. Car	NR	Army	+1	-2	American
25	Army	W	Tulane	NR	Tulane	NR		American

-Really missed on Miami and Georgia
-I had projected they'd put Indiana over us, but didn't expect BYU (WTF)

I will re-post my future "what if we lose" rankings now that we have actuals from last night

Rk

11/5 CFP

11/9

11/12 CFP

+/-

11/16

11/19 CFP

+/-

11/23

11/26 CFP

+/-

11/30

Final Rank

1

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

1*

2

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

W

5

3

Georgia

L

Texas

+2

W

Texas

W

Texas

W

2*

4

Miami

L

Penn St

+2

W

Penn St

W

Penn St

W

6

5

Texas

W

Indiana

+3

---

Indiana

L

BYU

+1

W

3*

6

Penn St

W

BYU

+3

W

BYU

W

ND

+1

W

7

7

Tennessee

W

Tennessee

L

ND

+1

W

Georgia

+1

W

8

8

Indiana

W

ND

+2

W

Georgia

+4

W

Miami

+1

W

4*

9

BYU

W

Miami

-5

---

Miami

W

Alabama

+1

W

9

10

ND

W

Alabama

+1

W

Alabama

W

Ole Miss

+1

W

10

11

Alabama

W

Ole Miss

+5

---

Ole Miss

W

Indiana

-6

W

11

12

Boise

W

Georgia

-9

W

Tennessee

-5

W

Tennessee

W

13

SMU

---

Boise

-1

W

Boise

W

Boise

W

12*

14

A&M

---

SMU

-1

W

SMU

W

SMU

W

15

LSU

L

A&M

-1

W

A&M

W

A&M

L

16

Ole Miss

W

K State

+3

W

K State

W

K State

W

17

Iowa St

L

Colorado

+3

W

Colorado

W

Colorado

W

18

Pittsburgh

L

Wazzu

+3

W

Louisville

+1

W

Louisville

W

19

K State

---

Louisville

+3

W

Wazzu

-1

W

Wazzu

W

20

Colorado

W

Clemson

+3

W

S. Car

+1

W

S. Car

W

21

Wazzu

W

S. Car

NR

W

Clemson

-1

W

Clemson

L

22

Louisville

---

LSU

-7

W

LSU

W

LSU

W

23

Clemson

W

Missouri

+1

L

Army

+1

L

Tulane

+1

W

24

Missouri

W

Army

+1

---

Tulane

+1

---

Iowa St.

+1

L

25

Army

W

Tulane

NR

W

Iowa St

NR

W

UNLV

NR

W

*Conference champs

Reconfiguring my table to include last night's rankings

-Assuming Indiana loses to Ohio State, I now expect Indiana to slot in above Tennessee.
-Colorado could steal a bid and screw over the next one.
-I see a few games that could save us, and have medium likelihood of happening:
---Penn State @ 6-4 Minnesota Week 13
---10-0 Army @ Notre Dame Week 13
---7-4 Georgia Tech @ Georgia Week 14
---Texas @ 9-2 Texas A&M Week 14? Would A&M hop us? Would Texas drop below us?

 

[Titan&Volfan4life]

We're NOT going to lose!!!

UGa is going to wonder what HIT them.

Vols by 14.

VFL...GBO!!!

 

[Johnnyreb#VFL]

I think we can play our way back in if we lose with a “little” help

 

[mrmax86]

Rk

11/12 CFP

11/16

11/19 CFP

+/-

11/23

11/26 CFP

+/-

11/30

12/3 CFP

+/-

Final Rank

Conf

1

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

1*

Big Ten

2

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

5

Big Ten

3

Texas

W

Texas

W

Texas

W

Texas

2*

SEC

4

Penn St

W

Penn St

W

Penn St

W

Penn St

6

Big Ten

5

Indiana

---

Indiana

L

ND

+1

W

ND

7

Indep

6

BYU

L

ND

+2

W

Miami

+1

W

Miami

3*

ACC

7

Tennessee

L

Miami

+2

W

Alabama

+1

W

Alabama

8

SEC

8

ND

W

Alabama

+2

W

Georgia

+1

W

Georgia

9

SEC

9

Miami

---

Georgia

+3

W

Indiana

-4

W

Indiana

10

Big Ten

10

Alabama

W

Tennessee

-3

W

Tennessee

W

Tennessee

11

SEC

11

Ole Miss

---

Ole Miss

W

Ole Miss

W

Ole Miss

SEC

12

Georgia

W

Boise

+1

W

Boise

W

Boise

4*

MW

13

Boise

W

BYU

-7

W

BYU

W

BYU

12*

Big 12

14

SMU

W

SMU

W

SMU

W

SMU

ACC

15

A&M

W

A&M

W

A&M

L

Colorado

+1

Big 12

16

K State

L

Colorado

+1

W

Colorado

W

Clemson

+1

ACC

17

Colorado

W

Clemson

+3

W

Clemson

W

Tulane

+2

American

18

Wazzu

L

S. Car

+3

W

S. Car

L

Iowa St

+2

Big 12

19

Louisville

L

Army

+5

L

Tulane

+1

W

Wazzu

+2

PAC 12

20

Clemson

W

Tulane

+5

W

Iowa St

+2

W

Illinois

+2

Big Ten

21

S. Car

W

AZ State

NR

L

Wazzu

+2

W

A&M

-6

SEC

22

LSU

L

Iowa St

NR

W

Illinois

+2

W

S. Car

-4

SEC

23

Missouri

L

Wazzu

-5

W

Missouri

+2

W

Missouri

SEC

24

Army

---

Illinois

NR

W

UNLV

NR

W

UNLV

MW

25

Tulane

W

Missouri

-2

W

Memphis

NR

L

K State

Big 12

*Conference champs

Our biggest competition is Ole Miss and Indiana, the last 2 weeks. Need them to lose, or for the committee to favor us over them in the coming weeks. Will be interesting to see.

 

[Estalcup]

.

 

[mrmax86]

.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

 

[mrmax86]

Rk

11/12 CFP

11/16

11/19 CFP

+/-

11/23

11/26 CFP

+/-

11/30

12/3 CFP

+/-

Final Rank

Conf

1

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

1*

Big Ten

2

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

5

Big Ten

3

Texas

W

Texas

W

Texas

W

Texas

2*

SEC

4

Penn St

W

Penn St

W

Penn St

W

Penn St

6

Big Ten

5

Indiana

---

Indiana

L

ND

+1

W

ND

7

Indep

6

BYU

L

ND

+2

W

Miami

+2

W

Miami

3*

ACC

7

Tennessee

L

Alabama

+3

L

Georgia

+3

W

Georgia

8

SEC

8

ND

W

Miami

+1

W

Indiana

-3

W

Indiana

9

Big Ten

9

Miami

---

Ole Miss

+2

L

Tennessee

+2

W

Tennessee

10

SEC

10

Alabama

W

Georgia

+2

W

Boise

+2

W

Boise

4*

MW

11

Ole Miss

---

Tennessee

-4

W

SMU

+2

W

SMU

11

ACC

12

Georgia

W

Boise

+1

W

Clemson

+5

W

Clemson

ACC

13

Boise

W

SMU

+1

W

Alabama

-6

W

Alabama

SEC

14

SMU

W

BYU

-8

L

AZ State

+7

W

AZ State

12*

Big 12

15

A&M

W

A&M

L

Ole Miss

-6

W

Ole Miss

SEC

16

K State

L

Colorado

+1

L

S. Car

+2

L

Tulane

+1

American

17

Colorado

W

Clemson

+3

W

Tulane

+3

W

Iowa St

+1

Big 12

18

Wazzu

L

S. Car

+3

W

Iowa St

+3

W

BYU

+1

Big 12

19

Louisville

L

Army

+5

L

BYU

-5

W

Missouri

+1

PAC 12

20

Clemson

W

Tulane

+5

W

Missouri

+3

W

UNLV

+1

MW

21

S. Car

W

AZ State

NR

W

UNLV

+3

W

Illinois

+2

Big Ten

22

LSU

L

Iowa St

NR

W

A&M

-7

L

Colorado

+2

Big 12

23

Missouri

L

Missouri

W

Illinois

+2

W

S. Car

-7

SEC

24

Army

---

UNLV

NR

W

Colorado

-8

W

Army

+1

American

25

Tulane

W

Illinois

NR

W

Army

-6

W

K State

NR

Big 12

*Conference champs

I would very much like it if Indiana were below Tennessee, however I am pessimistic.
The last spot is now going to one of Bama, Clemson, and SMU.

 

[mrmax86]

Rk

11/12 CFP

11/16

11/19 CFP

+/-

11/23

11/26 CFP

+/-

11/30

12/3 CFP

+/-

Texas UGA

Texas Texas

A&M UGA

A&M A&M

Conf

1

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

1*

1*

1*

1*

Big Ten

2

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

5

5

5

5

Big Ten

3

Texas

W

Texas

W

Texas

W

Texas

6

2*

9

10

SEC

4

Penn St

W

Penn St

W

Penn St

W

Penn St

7

6

6

6

Big Ten

5

Indiana

---

Indiana

L

ND

+1

W

ND

8

7

7

7

Indep

6

BYU

L

ND

+2

W

Miami

+2

W

Miami

2*

3*

2*

2*

ACC

7

Tennessee

L

Alabama

+3

L

Georgia

+3

W

Georgia

3*

8

3*

8

SEC

8

ND

W

Miami

+1

W

Tennessee

+3

W

Tennessee

9

9

8

9

SEC

9

Miami

---

Ole Miss

+2

L

SMU

+4

W

SMU

10

10

10

11

ACC

10

Alabama

W

Georgia

+2

W

Indiana

-5

W

Indiana

11

11

11

Big Ten

11

Ole Miss

---

Tennessee

-4

W

Boise

+1

W

Boise

4*

4*

3*

MW

12

Georgia

W

Boise

+1

W

Clemson

+5

W

Clemson

ACC

13

Boise

W

SMU

+1

W

Alabama

-6

W

Alabama

SEC

14

SMU

W

BYU

-8

L

Ole Miss

-5

W

Ole Miss

SEC

15

A&M

W

A&M

L

S. Car

+3

L

AZ State

12*

12*

12*

4*

Big 12

16

K State

L

Colorado

+1

L

AZ State

+5

W

Tulane

+1

American

17

Colorado

W

Clemson

+3

W

Tulane

+3

W

Iowa St

+1

Big 12

18

Wazzu

L

S. Car

+3

W

Iowa St

+4

W

BYU

+1

Big 12

19

Louisville

L

Army

+5

L

BYU

-5

W

Missouri

+2

SEC

20

Clemson

W

Tulane

+5

W

A&M

-5

L

UNLV

+2

MW

21

S. Car

W

AZ State

NR

W

Missouri

+2

W

Illinois

+2

Big Ten

22

LSU

L

Iowa St

NR

W

UNLV

+2

W

Colorado

+2

Big 12

23

Missouri

L

Missouri

W

Illinois

+2

W

S. Car

-8

SEC

24

Army

---

UNLV

NR

W

K State

NR

L

A&M

-4

12*

SEC

25

Tulane

W

Illinois

NR

W

Colorado

-9

W

Army

NR

American

*Conference champs

If you assume the committee will not drop teams for losing their conference championships, then these should be the main scenarios that we will see. It appears A&M beating Texas and UGA beating A&M in the SECCG gives us the best chance to host a round 1 game.

 

[mrmax86]

Rk

11/12 CFP

11/16

11/19 CFP

+/-

11/23

11/26 CFP

+/-

11/30

12/3 CFP

+/-

CCG?

Texas Oreg

Texas PSU

UGA Oreg

UGA PSU

Conf

1

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

Big Ten

1*

5

1*

5

Big Ten

2

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

L

Texas

+1

SEC

2*

1*

6

7

SEC

3

Texas

W

Texas

W

Texas

W

Penn St

+1

Big Ten

7

2*

7

1*

Big Ten

4

Penn St

W

Penn St

W

Penn St

W

ND

+1

5

6

5

6

Indep

5

Indiana

---

Indiana

L

ND

+1

W

Georgia

+2

SEC

8

8

2*

2*

SEC

6

BYU

L

ND

+2

W

Miami

+2

L

Ohio St

-4

6

7

8

8

Big Ten

7

Tennessee

L

Alabama

+3

L

Georgia

+3

W

Tennessee

+1

9

9

9

9

SEC

8

ND

W

Miami

+1

W

Tennessee

+3

W

SMU

+1

ACC

ACC

9

Miami

---

Ole Miss

+2

L

SMU

+4

W

Indiana

+1

Big Ten

10

Alabama

W

Georgia

+2

W

Indiana

-5

W

Boise

+1

MW

MW

11

Ole Miss

---

Tennessee

-4

W

Boise

+1

W

Alabama

+2

SEC

12

Georgia

W

Boise

+1

W

Clemson

+5

L

Miami

-6

ACC

13

Boise

W

SMU

+1

W

Alabama

-6

W

Ole Miss

+1

SEC

14

SMU

W

BYU

-8

L

Ole Miss

-5

W

S. Car

+1

SEC

15

A&M

W

A&M

L

S. Car

+3

W

AZ State

+1

Big 12

Big 12

16

K State

L

Colorado

+1

L

AZ State

+5

W

Iowa St

+2

Big 12

Big 12

17

Colorado

W

Clemson

+3

W

Tulane

+3

L

Clemson

-5

ACC

ACC

18

Wazzu

L

S. Car

+3

W

Iowa St

+4

W

BYU

+1

Big 12

19

Louisville

L

Army

+5

L

BYU

-5

W

Missouri

+2

SEC

20

Clemson

W

Tulane

+5

W

A&M

-5

L

UNLV

+2

MW

MW

21

S. Car

W

AZ State

NR

W

Missouri

+2

W

Illinois

+2

Big Ten

22

LSU

L

Iowa St

NR

W

UNLV

+2

W

Syracuse

NR

ACC

23

Missouri

L

Missouri

W

Illinois

+2

W

Colorado

+2

Big 12

24

Army

---

UNLV

NR

W

K State

NR

L

Army

NR

American

12*

American

25

Tulane

W

Illinois

NR

W

Colorado

-9

W

Memphis

NR

American

*Conference champs

I put this together to try to see if I could come up with a scenario where we'd jump either Texas or PSU. I highly doubt there will be a blowout for either Georgia or Penn State, but that's the only place where I think they'd drop either of them below us. I do have us traveling to Athens instead of Columbus if Texas wins. Thoughts?

 

[mrmax86]

Rk	12/3 CFP	+/-	CCG?	SMU Win Boise Win	SMU Win UNLV Win	Clem Win Boise Win	Clem Win UNLV Win	Conf
1	Oregon		Big Ten					Big Ten
2	Texas	+1	SEC					SEC
3	Penn St	+1	Big Ten					Big Ten
4	ND	+1						Indep
5	Georgia	+2	SEC					SEC
6	Ohio St	-4						Big Ten
7	Tennessee	+1		9	9	9	9	SEC
8	SMU	+1	ACC	3*	3*	10/11/OUT	10/11/OUT	ACC
9	Indiana	+1		10	10	10/11	10/11	Big Ten
10	Boise	+1	MW	4*	11/OUT	3*	11/OUT	MW
11	Alabama	+2		11	11/OUT	11/OUT	11/OUT	SEC
12	Miami	-6						ACC
13	Ole Miss	+1						SEC
14	S. Car	+1						SEC
15	AZ State	+1	Big 12	12*/OUT	4*/OUT	4*/OUT	3*/OUT	Big 12
16	Iowa St	+2	Big 12	12*/OUT	4*/OUT	4*/OUT	3*/OUT	Big 12
17	Clemson	-5	ACC			12*	4*	ACC
18	BYU	+1						Big 12
19	Missouri	+2						SEC
20	UNLV	+2	MW		12*		12*	MW
21	Illinois	+2						Big Ten
22	Syracuse	NR						ACC
23	Colorado	+2						Big 12
24	Army	NR	American					American
25	Memphis	NR						American

*Conference champs

Just for fun, I wanted to see what the playoff rankings would be like for all 5 relevant conference championship games. I did Big Ten and SEC in the previous post. Both the 1 and 2 seeds are taken by that. Tennessee, I'm projecting as the 9 seed regardless of those 2 games. So, we're looking for 10/11 seeds and 3/4/12 here.