What if We Lose

[mrmax86]

Spoiler: Here's my original post with bad logic. I fixed it in the post linked below.

Looking at the CFP Rankings, I am going to attempt to run through the worst-case scenario of events if Tennessee loses to Georgia (close loss) and other teams take care of their business. Remember, this is college football and top 25 teams will lose.

Rk

11/5 CFP

11/9

11/12 CFP

+/-

11/16

11/19 CFP

+/-

11/23

11/26 CFP

+/-

11/30

Final Rank

1

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

1

2

Ohio State

W

Ohio State

W

Ohio State

W

Ohio State

W

5

3

Georgia

L

Texas

+2

W

Texas

W

Texas

W

2

4

Miami

L

Penn St

+2

---

Penn St

W

Penn St

W

6

5

Texas

W

Indiana

+3

L

Indiana

L

BYU

+1

W

3

6

Penn State

W

Tennessee

+2

W

BYU

+1

W

ND

+1

W

7

7

Tennessee

W

BYU

+2

W

ND

+1

W

Georgia

+1

W

8

8

Indiana

W

ND

+2

W

Georgia

+3

W

Ole Miss

+1

W

9

9

BYU

W

Alabama

+2

---

Ole Miss

+1

W

Tennessee

+1

W

10

10

ND

W

Ole Miss

+6

W

Tennessee

-4

W

Alabama

+1

W

11

11

Alabama

W

Georgia

-8

W

Alabama

-2

W

Indiana

-6

W

12

12

Boise

W

Boise

W

Boise

W

Boise

W

13

SMU

---

Miami

-9

---

Miami

W

Miami

W

4

14

A&M

---

SMU

-1

W

SMU

W

SMU

W

15

LSU

L

A&M

-1

W

A&M

W

A&M

L

16

Ole Miss

W

Colorado

+4

W

Colorado

W

Colorado

W

17

Iowa State

L

K State

+2

W

K State

W

K State

W

18

Pittsburgh

L

Wazzu

+3

W

Wazzu

W

Wazzu

W

19

K State

---

Louisville

+3

W

Louisville

W

Louisville

W

20

Colorado

W

Clemson

+3

W

Clemson

W

Clemson

W

21

Wazzu

W

Missouri

+3

---

Missouri

W

Missouri

W

22

Louisville

---

Army

+3

W

Army

L

LSU

W

23

Clemson

W

LSU

-8

W

LSU

W

S Carolina

L

24

Missouri

W

S. Carolina

W

S. Carolina

W

Tulane

W

25

Army

W

Tulane

W

Tulane

---

Iowa State

L

Thoughts?

Again, this is the worst regular season-case scenario and I still have us in the playoff. Even if the committee ranks us below Bama and Indiana, I think we're in.

Not considered here are bid-stealers. Here are a few opinions I have regarding that:
-I think whoever wins the ACCCG will already be from outside the top 12 and is included in this.
-If Texas loses the SECCG, the winner will be one of the at-large teams already in the top 12.
-Indiana has the biggest opportunity to mess our season up, by either beating Ohio State or winning the BIGCG. Either way if they're above us, we're the 11 or 12 seed, I think.
-Colorado could steal a bid also. Sad, but true.

Tonight's rankings matter a lot. If they keep us above Indiana, then that will matter when it gets down to the last week.

Corrected Post

 

[mrmax86]

And I already know what the first reply will be, so I'll make it myself:

Just win this weekend.

 

[WillisWG]

They remember what you do in November....

 

[UTodd01]

Need Notre Dame to take a bit fat L at some point if we lose.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Need Notre Dame to take a bit fat L at some point if we lose.

The one they already took should count as 2

 

[Arrested Devolopment]

I could see it, but I could also see a worst case of TN dropping to 15 on a loss to GA and close game with Vandy depending on committee bias. Remember: they hate cause they anus.

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

They remember what you do in November....

Dumbest part of college football. No other professional or semi professional sport has a glorified beauty and popularity contest. I can't take this sport seriously at all as long as things are decided by a committee that is also influenced by ESPN for ratings.

The Big 12 is a bush league conference and has no metric to support being in the conversation (talent, money, etc. are WAY lower). BYU gets to skirt by Truck Stop State each week and rewarded with a playoff spot.

The ACC, also known as the All Cupcake Conference, is just as bad. They would be nothing without Clempson winning a few natties in recent history.

Hell, even the B1G is suspect. Do you really think Indiana and Penn State are powerhouses? How many ranked wins do they have? Hint: the answer is the same as the number of victories Bama has over P4 schools in the state of Tennessee this season.

 

[Carp]

Winning vs UGA nearly assures we are in.

However, I keep telling people that making it to the SECCG with 2 losses is actually a disadvantage. Because there is a good chance if you lose, the other 2 loss teams that are idle during the SECCG are gonna leap frog you in the final rankings.

But as long as we take care of business this Saturday, it won't matter.

 

[superdave1984]

Dumbest part of college football. No other professional or semi professional sport has a glorified beauty and popularity contest. I can't take this sport seriously at all as long as things are decided by a committee that is also influenced by ESPN for ratings.

The Big 12 is a bush league conference and has no metric to support being in the conversation (talent, money, etc. are WAY lower). BYU gets to skirt by Truck Stop State each week and rewarded with a playoff spot.

The ACC, also known as the All Cupcake Conference, is just as bad. They would be nothing without Clempson winning a few natties in recent history.

Hell, even the B1G is suspect. Do you really think Indiana and Penn State are powerhouses? How many ranked wins do they have? Hint: the answer is the same as the number of victories Bama has over P4 schools in the state of Tennessee this season.

I would not want to play Indiana in the playoffs.

 

[UTodd01]

I would not want to play Indiana in the playoffs.

We would crush Indiana lol

 

[VolPack22]

Looks like based on your spreadsheet that BYU and Boise State would be the 3 and 4 seed as conference champs and ranked ahead of Miami and Miami would be the 12 seed with an automatic bid. Indiana would be the odd man out.

 

[deatojl]

Looking at the CFP Rankings, I am going to attempt to run through the worst-case scenario of events if Tennessee loses to Georgia (close loss) and other teams take care of their business. Remember, this is college football and top 25 teams will lose.

Rk

11/5 CFP

11/9

11/12 CFP

+/-

11/16

11/19 CFP

+/-

11/23

11/26 CFP

+/-

11/30

Final Rank

1

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

1

2

Ohio State

W

Ohio State

W

Ohio State

W

Ohio State

W

5

3

Georgia

L

Texas

+2

W

Texas

W

Texas

W

2

4

Miami

L

Penn St

+2

---

Penn St

W

Penn St

W

6

5

Texas

W

Indiana

+3

L

Indiana

L

BYU

+1

W

3

6

Penn State

W

Tennessee

+2

W

BYU

+1

W

ND

+1

W

7

7

Tennessee

W

BYU

+2

W

ND

+1

W

Georgia

+1

W

8

8

Indiana

W

ND

+2

W

Georgia

+3

W

Ole Miss

+1

W

9

9

BYU

W

Alabama

+2

---

Ole Miss

+1

W

Tennessee

+1

W

10

10

ND

W

Ole Miss

+6

W

Tennessee

-4

W

Alabama

+1

W

11

11

Alabama

W

Georgia

-8

W

Alabama

-2

W

Indiana

-6

W

12

12

Boise

W

Boise

W

Boise

W

Boise

W

13

SMU

---

Miami

-9

---

Miami

W

Miami

W

4

14

A&M

---

SMU

-1

W

SMU

W

SMU

W

15

LSU

L

A&M

-1

W

A&M

W

A&M

L

16

Ole Miss

W

Colorado

+4

W

Colorado

W

Colorado

W

17

Iowa State

L

K State

+2

W

K State

W

K State

W

18

Pittsburgh

L

Wazzu

+3

W

Wazzu

W

Wazzu

W

19

K State

---

Louisville

+3

W

Louisville

W

Louisville

W

20

Colorado

W

Clemson

+3

W

Clemson

W

Clemson

W

21

Wazzu

W

Missouri

+3

---

Missouri

W

Missouri

W

22

Louisville

---

Army

+3

W

Army

L

LSU

W

23

Clemson

W

LSU

-8

W

LSU

W

S Carolina

L

24

Missouri

W

S. Carolina

W

S. Carolina

W

Tulane

W

25

Army

W

Tulane

W

Tulane

---

Iowa State

L

Thoughts?

Again, this is the worst regular season-case scenario and I still have us in the playoff. Even if the committee ranks us below Bama and Indiana, I think we're in.

Not considered here are bid-stealers. Here are a few opinions I have regarding that:
-I think whoever wins the ACCCG will already be from outside the top 12 and is included in this.
-If Texas loses the SECCG, the winner will be one of the at-large teams already in the top 12.
-Indiana has the biggest opportunity to mess our season up, by either beating Ohio State or winning the BIGCG. Either way if they're above us, we're the 11 or 12 seed, I think.
-Colorado could steal a bid also. Sad, but true.

Tonight's rankings matter a lot. If they keep us above Indiana, then that will matter when it gets down to the last week.

I will be very surprised and disappointed if Indiana jumps us in the playoff rankings tonight. I actually think there is a decent shot of us jumping ahead of Penn St...at least if the committee does what they claim to do and start with a clean slate every week. You have to think Alabama will move up at least a couple spots into the top 10 this week, which means Tennessee now has a top 10 win on its resume.

 

[IndianaVol]

I would not want to play Indiana in the playoffs.

We would crush Indiana lol

This where I have an issue with the OPs prognostication.
He has IU losing to tOSU, which is the most likely scenario, but then they drop 6 SPOTS...I just don't see that unless it is a big time blow out by OhSt.

IF we had to play IU in the 1st round, I would definitely want to host.
Cignetti has this fan base up here in Bloomington fired up for sure and playing them at their house especially in December would not be good.

 

[UT97Vol]

As I mentioned in my version, worst case scenario is us losing and Texas losing to A&M creating a five or six place tie in the SEC.

Also, why do you think we would only lose four places losing to UGA? Won’t know until tonight but UGA dropped nine places losing to Ole Miss.l in the AP. And CFP pretty closely mirrored the AP last week.

Also, why does Alabama drop the following week? Alabama is going to be ahead of us if we lose to Georgia. It’s just the way it is

 

[Tigervol]

We lose by 17 or more likely end up in the Citrus Bowl. Play close and get help from Arkansas ( improve their record) and a few others and we could get in with big Vandy win. Beat Vandy bigger than Texas did on the same field. Just beat Georgia and we get a home game playoff.

 

[mrmax86]

Looks like based on your spreadsheet that BYU and Boise State would be the 3 and 4 seed as conference champs and ranked ahead of Miami and Miami would be the 12 seed with an automatic bid. Indiana would be the odd man out.

Boise is not in a P4 conference. Those would be BIG/SEC/ACC/Big 12

 

[mrmax86]

I will be very surprised and disappointed if Indiana jumps us in the playoff rankings tonight. I actually think there is a decent shot of us jumping ahead of Penn St...at least if the committee does what they claim to do and start with a clean slate every week. You have to think Alabama will move up at least a couple spots into the top 10 this week, which means Tennessee now has a top 10 win on its resume.

For some reason, I thought the committee would reward them for beating Michigan (as bad as they are) and punish us for only beating Mississippi State by 19. Stupid logic, but they've proven in the past their logic is stupid.

 

[VolPack22]

Boise is not in a P4 conference. Those would be BIG/SEC/ACC/Big 12

The format is “top 4 ranked conference champions” get the bye and the 5th highest ranked conference champion gets an automatic bid, just not a first round bye. If Miami finishes behind BYU and Boise State then BYU and Boise will be the 3 and 4.

 

[ATCVolinmn]

I may be wrong, and usually am, but where is the highest ranked group of five in your final 12? Don't they get included with the 4 conference champs?

 

[mrmax86]

As I mentioned in my version, worst case scenario is us losing and Texas losing to A&M creating a five or six place tie in the SEC.

Also, why do you think we would only lose four places losing to UGA? Won’t know until tonight but UGA dropped nine places losing to Ole Miss.l in the AP. And CFP pretty closely mirrored the AP last week.

Also, why does Alabama drop the following week? Alabama is going to be ahead of us if we lose to Georgia. It’s just the way it is

We'd be losing from further down in the rankings. Georgia was 3 when they lost. And, I think there's (currently) a crevasse between the top teams and Boise State.

 

[mrmax86]

The format is “top 4 ranked conference champions” get the bye and the 5th highest ranked conference champion gets an automatic bid, just not a first round bye. If Miami finishes behind BYU and Boise State then BYU and Boise will be the 3 and 4.

Well I'll be danged, I am not sure why I got that wrong...I'll fix it

 

[mrmax86]

I may be wrong, and usually am, but where is the highest ranked group of five in your final 12? Don't they get included with the 4 conference champs?

I looked that one up and there's nothing about best G5 team that I could find...I also had that in my brain but didn't find it

 

[mrmax86]

The format is “top 4 ranked conference champions” get the bye and the 5th highest ranked conference champion gets an automatic bid, just not a first round bye. If Miami finishes behind BYU and Boise State then BYU and Boise will be the 3 and 4.

I may be wrong, and usually am, but where is the highest ranked group of five in your final 12? Don't they get included with the 4 conference champs?

Okay, sorry guys. It's top 5 conference champions and then the next 7 teams.

We assume that the top 4 conference champions will be the P4 teams, thus G5 would be the fifth, but it doesn't say that. The rules allow for 3 P4 and 2 G5 schools if that's where they're ranked. Chances of that happening? Slim.

Here I thought I knew how this worked and made a whole thread about it.

 

[VolCalls]

Looking at the CFP Rankings, I am going to attempt to run through the worst-case scenario of events if Tennessee loses to Georgia (close loss) and other teams take care of their business. Remember, this is college football and top 25 teams will lose.

Rk

11/5 CFP

11/9

11/12 CFP

+/-

11/16

11/19 CFP

+/-

11/23

11/26 CFP

+/-

11/30

Final Rank

1

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

1

2

Ohio State

W

Ohio State

W

Ohio State

W

Ohio State

W

5

3

Georgia

L

Texas

+2

W

Texas

W

Texas

W

2

4

Miami

L

Penn St

+2

---

Penn St

W

Penn St

W

6

5

Texas

W

Indiana

+3

L

Indiana

L

BYU

+1

W

3

6

Penn State

W

Tennessee

+2

W

BYU

+1

W

ND

+1

W

7

7

Tennessee

W

BYU

+2

W

ND

+1

W

Georgia

+1

W

8

8

Indiana

W

ND

+2

W

Georgia

+3

W

Ole Miss

+1

W

9

9

BYU

W

Alabama

+2

---

Ole Miss

+1

W

Tennessee

+1

W

10

10

ND

W

Ole Miss

+6

W

Tennessee

-4

W

Alabama

+1

W

11

11

Alabama

W

Georgia

-8

W

Alabama

-2

W

Indiana

-6

W

12

12

Boise

W

Boise

W

Boise

W

Boise

W

13

SMU

---

Miami

-9

---

Miami

W

Miami

W

4

14

A&M

---

SMU

-1

W

SMU

W

SMU

W

15

LSU

L

A&M

-1

W

A&M

W

A&M

L

16

Ole Miss

W

Colorado

+4

W

Colorado

W

Colorado

W

17

Iowa State

L

K State

+2

W

K State

W

K State

W

18

Pittsburgh

L

Wazzu

+3

W

Wazzu

W

Wazzu

W

19

K State

---

Louisville

+3

W

Louisville

W

Louisville

W

20

Colorado

W

Clemson

+3

W

Clemson

W

Clemson

W

21

Wazzu

W

Missouri

+3

---

Missouri

W

Missouri

W

22

Louisville

---

Army

+3

W

Army

L

LSU

W

23

Clemson

W

LSU

-8

W

LSU

W

S Carolina

L

24

Missouri

W

S. Carolina

W

S. Carolina

W

Tulane

W

25

Army

W

Tulane

W

Tulane

---

Iowa State

L

Thoughts?

Again, this is the worst regular season-case scenario and I still have us in the playoff. Even if the committee ranks us below Bama and Indiana, I think we're in.

Not considered here are bid-stealers. Here are a few opinions I have regarding that:
-I think whoever wins the ACCCG will already be from outside the top 12 and is included in this.
-If Texas loses the SECCG, the winner will be one of the at-large teams already in the top 12.
-Indiana has the biggest opportunity to mess our season up, by either beating Ohio State or winning the BIGCG. Either way if they're above us, we're the 11 or 12 seed, I think.
-Colorado could steal a bid also. Sad, but true.

Tonight's rankings matter a lot. If they keep us above Indiana, then that will matter when it gets down to the last week.

I see it's already been pointed out that Indiana as the #12 gets bumped and Miami gets that seed, with Boise moving to #4.

 

[mrmax86]

Rk

11/5 CFP

11/9

11/12 CFP

+/-

11/16

11/19 CFP

+/-

11/23

11/26 CFP

+/-

11/30

Final Rank

1

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

Oregon

W

1*

2

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

W

Ohio St

W

5

3

Georgia

L

Texas

+2

W

Texas

W

Texas

W

2*

4

Miami

L

Penn St

+2

---

Penn St

W

Penn St

W

6

5

Texas

W

Indiana

+3

L

Indiana

L

BYU

+1

W

3*

6

Penn St

W

Tennessee

+2

W

BYU

+1

W

ND

+1

W

7

7

Tennessee

W

BYU

+2

W

ND

+1

W

Georgia

+1

W

8

8

Indiana

W

ND

+2

W

Georgia

+3

W

Ole Miss

+1

W

9

9

BYU

W

Alabama

+2

---

Ole Miss

+1

W

Tennessee

+1

W

10

10

ND

W

Ole Miss

+6

W

Tennessee

-4

W

Alabama

+1

W

11

11

Alabama

W

Georgia

-8

W

Alabama

-2

W

Indiana

-6

W

12

Boise

W

Boise

W

Boise

W

Boise

W

4*

13

SMU

---

Miami

-9

---

Miami

W

Miami

W

12*

14

A&M

---

SMU

-1

W

SMU

W

SMU

W

15

LSU

L

A&M

-1

W

A&M

W

A&M

L

16

Ole Miss

W

Colorado

+4

W

Colorado

W

Colorado

W

17

Iowa St

L

K State

+2

W

K State

W

K State

W

18

Pittsburgh

L

Wazzu

+3

W

Wazzu

W

Wazzu

W

19

K State

---

Louisville

+3

W

Louisville

W

Louisville

W

20

Colorado

W

Clemson

+3

W

Clemson

W

Clemson

W

21

Wazzu

W

Missouri

+3

---

Missouri

W

Missouri

W

22

Louisville

---

Army

+3

W

Army

L

LSU

W

23

Clemson

W

LSU

-8

W

LSU

W

S Car

L

24

Missouri

W

S. Car

W

S. Car

W

Tulane

W

25

Army

W

Tulane

W

Tulane

---

Iowa St

L

*Conference champs

Reconfiguring my table to fix my conference champion error.

-Assuming Indiana loses to Ohio State, whoever is last in line out of Georgia/Ole Miss/Alabama/Tennessee/Indiana will be left out.
-Colorado could steal a bid and screw over the next one. It remains to be seen if they'd kick out BYU in that situation. They might.

Tonight's rankings matter a lot. If they keep us above Indiana, then that will matter when it gets down to the last week. Though, I projected them to be above us in tonight's rankings due to last week's results.