What the crap (WTC) They are even?

#1

OrangeEmpire

The White Debonair
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#1
AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch

WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.
Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.
The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day.
"I trust McCain more, and I do feel that he has more experience in government than Obama. I don't think Obama has been around long enough," said Angela Decker, 44, of La Porte, Ind.
But Karen Judd, 58, of Middleton, Wis., said, "Obama certainly has sufficient qualifications." She said any positive feelings about McCain evaporated with "the outright lying" in TV ads and his choice of running mate Sarah Palin, who "doesn't have the correct skills." The new AP-GfK head-to-head result is a departure from some, but not all, recent national polls.

Thoughts?

Other than WTC............
 
#4
#4
many polls have the difference within the margin of error. Polls that show Obama with an 8-10 pt. lead usually contain oversamples of minorities and democrats OR of young voters who are notoriously unreliable on election day.
 
#6
#6
many polls have the difference within the margin of error. Polls that show Obama with an 8-10 pt. lead usually contain oversamples of minorities and democrats OR of young voters who are notoriously unreliable on election day.

I would hate to be a pollster right now, those "oversamples" are supposed to repreent the trends in voter registry. I would say that all signs point to record minority and youth turnout, but it will be impossible to tell until the 4th
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#7
#7
just remember that the polls that have it close have their own sampling issues, such as Zogby's use of 2004 party id numbers
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#8
#8
I would hate to be a pollster right now, those "oversamples" are supposed to repreent the trends in voter registry. I would say that all signs point to record minority and youth turnout, but it will be impossible to tell until the 4th
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if they are relying on record minority and youth turnout to win the election for obama then maybe my call that the election is over is premature. every election we hear the same thing from the dems and every election those people dont' vote.
 
#9
#9
Also most polls are done over landline phones in a time when over 14 percent of households only have a cell phone in the home. I read that off MSNBC earlier.

EDIT: The 2004 number was either 4 or 7 percent of households that had a cell only.
 
#10
#10
if they are relying on record minority and youth turnout to win the election for obama then maybe my call that the election is over is premature. every election we hear the same thing from the dems and every election those people dont' vote.

you dont't think Obama is a much more energizing candidate than Gore or Kerry
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#11
#11
you dont't think Obama is a much more energizing candidate than Gore or Kerry
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I think he is more energizing but has less substance and credentials than those two, in the end I think that kind of balances things as far as your comparison goes.


By the way emain, did you see my thread on the Murfreesboro incident?
 
#13
#13
you dont't think Obama is a much more energizing candidate than Gore or Kerry
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not more so than clinton and they didn't vote for him either. young people are lazy. t hey may register on a whim but the second they see those long lines for voting they wont bother.
 
#17
#17
is obama blows this election the amount of crow dems are going to have to eat is going to be monumental.
 
#19
#19
I saw some polling of likely voters the other day which suggests that McCain's support is softer than Obama's. About half of those saying they would vote for McCain described their support of him as "lesser of two evils." Obama's support was stronger with about 60 % saying they liked him a lot and about 15 % saying he was the lesser of two evils.

Might offset the Brady factor.
 
#20
#20
I saw some polling of likely voters the other day which suggests that McCain's support is softer than Obama's. About half of those saying they would vote for McCain described their support of him as "lesser of two evils." Obama's support was stronger with about 60 % saying they liked him a lot and about 15 % saying he was the lesser of two evils.

Might offset the Brady factor.
so the reason that they're voting for one over the other means they might change their minds?
 
#21
#21
the evil of obama is more than enough to get many of us to the polls. bugs bunny could be running against obama and i'd be sprinting to vote against obama.
 
#22
#22
I saw some polling of likely voters the other day which suggests that McCain's support is softer than Obama's. About half of those saying they would vote for McCain described their support of him as "lesser of two evils." Obama's support was stronger with about 60 % saying they liked him a lot and about 15 % saying he was the lesser of two evils.

Might offset the Brady factor.
I think you mean the Bradley effect I find it absolutely hilarious how some republicans such as Limbaugh are basically praying on a daily basis that this happens.Of course Bradley lost his election 1/4 of a century ago I like to mention something I guess I'll call The Ford effect you know cause it is a hell of alot more recent you know like 2 years ago one of the last polls that came out before the election had Corker winning by 12 points and not one poll had it as close as it ended up a 3.5 % difference.:)
 
#23
#23
Harold Ford still lost, even after Barack Obama came to TN and begged for another brother in the Senate. Which is interesting, since he told voters in Maryland to not vote on race when it came to Michael Steele vs. Ben Cardin (who, even more interestingly, won the nomination over Kwesi Mfume).
 
#24
#24
you dont't think Obama is a much more energizing candidate than Gore or Kerry
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But Kerry had the intense Bush hatred working in his favor. That was pretty energizing, especially on college campuses.
 
#25
#25
I think he is more energizing but has less substance and credentials than those two, in the end I think that kind of balances things as far as your comparison goes.


By the way emain, did you see my thread on the Murfreesboro incident?

Not yet, I'll look into it.
 

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