Where does bama finish????

[GOT TWELVE?]

i would like a serious response for once, unbiased ( i know how hard it is) on where bama will finish in the west and the nation. cmon guys, muster up some of that football knowledge.

 

[IBleedOrange24/7]

IMO.
LSU and Bama have the heads up in the West. Im not sure if Auburn will have any muscle left? But its the same in the East.

UT and FLA, are the picks, But GA isnt really out of the fight.

GA and Auburn may not have the best odd's to win the East or West, but they both could spoil everyone elses chances.

 

[TigersTalons]

I say 3rd in the West your Defense will be loaded again but the lack of depth all around will be Bama's bane.IMHO .Not trying to get under your skin! :twocents:

 

[GoVolsDogg]

I have them coming in 2nd, behind only LSU, in the SEC West.

 

[utvolpj]

Wins: MTSU, So. Miss, Ark, Utah St. Miss, St., Ole Miss
Losses: Carolina, UF, UT, LSU, Auburn

So 6-5, maybe 7-4 if they can beat SC, but still 3rd in the west behind LSU and Auburn. Yet another New Years in Nashville for the Tide.

 

[volinbham]

Top 3 - LSU most likely to be at the top - clearly the talent leader.

Auburn is a question mark but likely 2nd or possibly 1st - should have plenty of talent but how will the new offense perform - after GaTech, schedule is favorable.

Alabama - could move up above either of the above due to the favorable schedule. Toughest conf. road games against Aub. (?) and So. Carolina (a team that has absolutely no one left talent wise).

Bama should easily finish above Ark., Ole Miss and Miss St. With a few good bounces and some problems due to new coaching (LSU) or new offense (Aub) could move up the ladder.

 

[milohimself]

I believe Alabama will win the SEC West. I truly do. I believe Bama has the defense to take out every single opponnent on their conference schedule, except Tennessee.

Against LSU, Bama's d-line should be able to suffocate JaMarcus Russell from doing what he needs to do and take away LSU's offense. Add in that Bama should have a competent offensive backfield this year, I say Bama wins a tight one at home.

Roughly the same principle at Auburn. Alabama's superior D stops Auburn enough and the O gets just enough points on the board to squeak out a win.

I say Alabama gets conference record of 7-1, beating LSU for the West tiebreaker and goes to Atlanta.

 

[NCGatorBait]

Originally posted by TigersTalons@Jul 5, 2005 7:03 PM
I say 3rd in the West your Defense will be loaded again but the lack of depth all around will be Bama's bane.IMHO .Not trying to get under your skin! :twocents:

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I concur...3rd in the West.

 

[volinbham]

While your predictions are clearly possible Milo, I personally think the D is being rated too highly.

I am by no means dogging out the Bama D. The will be very good - top tier in the SEC. However, I believe their number 1 ranking from most of last year is a bit misleading.

Two things contributed to the top ranking (in addition to the quality of the D) - 1) ball control offense. Especially after BC went down, Bama had a high TOP advantage due in part to the heavy reliance on the running game. As a result, the number of possessions opponents had was relatively low - fewer chances to score.

2) schedule. going into the Auburn game, Bama faced opponents with an average rank in offense of about 40+ (out of 117 or so D1 teams). Even UT was hovering around the 40 ranking in offense. Some teams (such as Utah St.) were in the 100s. In short, Bama didn't face offensive powerhouse teams. I believe Auburn was highest rated offense that Bama played and while the D performed well, Aub put up 300 yards.

Conclusion. The Bama D was very good without a doubt. However, the number 1 ranking was a bit misleading. If BC stays healthy, the irony is that opponents will likely get more offensive chances due to the TOP impact of moving more towards a passing game.

 

[milohimself]

Inflated stats due to time of possession is kind of a stretch. Bama had, in most games, only a couple, 2 or 3, more minutes than their opponnents.

Even if it was that big of a deal, Bama still allowed an average of less than 250 total yards per game last season. They will probably allow more than that this season, but I don't see their defensive statistics getting that much worse. It will be because of an increase in defensive play and a competent offense that can actually score. They will have a number of tight game, but I think they should have a certain edge over LSU and a probable edge over Auburn.

 

[volinbham]

First of all, I do believe that Bama's D was very good last year and will be again. My point is that I don't believe they were the BEST D in the country last year.

The average advantage was about 4 minutes. However, even the average can be misleading.

Utah St. (+5:28) Win
Ole Miss (+14:24) Win
Western Carolina (+10:22) Win
Ark (+2.32) Loss
USC (-8:00) Loss
UK (+22:10) Win
SoMiss (+9:02) Win
UT (+7:52) Loss
MSU (+2:14) Win
LSU (+2:52) Loss
Aub (-5:34) Loss
Minn (-15:48) Loss

Only 3 games where Bama was on the short end of the stick. The Minn game resulted in 351 yards given up and the Auburn game was 300 yards given up. The only anomaly is that USC with the large TOP advantage only achieved 250 yards.


In addition there are a couple of ways to look at TOP. Bama's offensive also had relatively long average TOP's or relatively time consuming drives. As a result, the total number of possessions for both teams is reduced. Fewer chances to score leads to lower scoring and offensive stats unless efficiency (% of drives resulting in yards/points) goes up.

So, I don't think it's a stretch. All I'm saying is that the number 1 ranking can be misleading. Just looking inside the numbers.

 

[duckman398686]

Bama has a good chance to win the west...if croyle stays healthy. I predict that you guys will go 8-3 and finish second with losses coming from lsu, tennessee, and florida.

 

[milohimself]

Yep. Not saying they're number one on D (They were 2nd last season, actually) but I believe they are good enough to go 7-1 in conference games.

 

[volinbham]

While I'm at it, here's the stats for part 2 of my argument:

Average Offensive Ranking of Bama opponents (Total Offensive - excluding Western Carolina)

65 out of 117

Listed from best to worst

Minnesota 15
Auburn 25
Tennessee 35
Arkansas 36
LSU 38
USC 63
Ole Miss 77
Southern Miss 95
Miss St. 107
Utah St. 111
UK 115

The best offensive team that Bama beat was ranked 77th out of 117. Granted, Bama had offensive problems (ranked 94th).

 

[milohimself]

Originally posted by duckman398686@Jul 5, 2005 6:58 PM
Bama has a good chance to win the west...if croyle stays healthy. I predict that you guys will go 8-3 and finish second with losses coming from lsu, tennessee, and florida.

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Florida? If Meyer runs the option, the one thing that will stop the gators dead in their tracks will be a good d-line. And Bama's d-line can be grouped in the same category as Tennessee's and Georgia's.

 

[milohimself]

Originally posted by volinbham@Jul 5, 2005 7:01 PM
While I'm at it, here's the stats for part 2 of my argument:

Average Offensive Ranking of Bama opponents (Total Offensive - excluding Western Carolina)

65 out of 117

Listed from best to worst

Minnesota 15
Auburn 25
Tennessee 35
Arkansas 36
LSU 38
USC 63
Ole Miss 77
Southern Miss 95
Miss St. 107
Utah St. 111
UK 115

The best offensive team that Bama beat was ranked 77th out of 117.  Granted, Bama had offensive problems (ranked 94th).

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Their schedule isn't drastically different.

 

[duckman398686]

don't forget though that meyer's whole offense doesn't revolve around the option like some teams have done in the past.......example:nebraska under osbourne and solich. meyer still has a passing attack.

 

[volinbham]

Originally posted by milohimself@Jul 5, 2005 9:04 PM
Their schedule isn't drastically different.

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Maybe not drastically different but trading UK for UF might seem drastic to some!

 

[milohimself]

Depends. I keep saying that Meyer's offense will probably crush lesser D's but suffer against good ones. I think you know where Bama falls there. I think Florida will go 7-4 next season.

 

[volinbham]

Originally posted by milohimself@Jul 5, 2005 9:13 PM
Depends. I keep saying that Meyer's offense will probably crush lesser D's but suffer against good ones. I think you know where Bama falls there. I think Florida will go 7-4 next season.

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I'm guessing they'll rank higher than 115 out of 117?

Plus, UT helped inflate UK's offensive numbers last year h34r:

 

[U-T]

4th next year

LSU has the most talent
Auburn owns them right now
Arkansas or Ole Miss will surprise
Alabama will be short on depth and continue to have injuries

 

[GOT TWELVE?]

Originally posted by U-T@Jul 5, 2005 11:27 PM
4th next year

LSU has the most talent
Auburn owns them right now
Arkansas or Ole Miss will surprise
Alabama will be short on depth and continue to have injuries

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:dlol:

 

[GOT TWELVE?]

:thumbsup: just wanted to say thanks for your insight, without turning it into a pissing contest. u-t never has anything nice to say, so he's ok with his pick. i have us in a footrace for the west, but i still think we will lose some very winnable games due to depth. defense will be awesome, o-line scares me, running game is there if darby is healthy and the o-line can stay together. we are starting 3 red shirts on the o-line. if brodie stays healthy i say we have 3 -4 losses. i do predict a big win though, either ut,florida,lsu. shula has to have one and brodie and company need a big one too. thanks again for your responses.

 

[volmanjr]

the ninja predicts that bama finishes 2nd behind LSU

 

[surrealvol]

Originally posted by utvolpj@Jul 5, 2005 7:11 PM
Wins: MTSU, So. Miss, Ark, Utah St. Miss, St., Ole Miss
Losses: Carolina, UF, UT, LSU, Auburn

So 6-5, maybe 7-4 if they can beat SC, but still 3rd in the west behind LSU and Auburn.  Yet another New Years in Nashville for the Tide.

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I think they'll beat SC, especially if they play them in Tuscaloosa or Birmingham.