NighthawkVol
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29 games and 3 SEC series into the season, I thought I discuss some thoughts about what this team looks like and where it's going.
OUTFIELD: During the offseason, I didn't think the outfield would be as unsettled as it is this deep into the season. Based on what we'd heard, I thought Backus would likely be a starter. I thought Stanwich would push for a starting job. I thought Booker was ready to break out. Between those guys, Chapman and Drieling, along with Merritt (who, as reigning AAC POY seemed certain to be a major contributor), I figured we were in great shape. But Dreiling apparently isn't ready defensively, Booker hasn't broken out, Merritt hasn't lived up to expectations, and Stanwich took the year off. Backus hasn't even played.
Now the good news: Hunter Ensley seems to have locked down CF and is hitting well. Booker, who has all the tools, busted out against LSU. Christian Scott has shown signs of starting to hit. Those 3 make for a fantastic defensive outfield. If the latter two have "seen the light" at the plate and can be solid there, that would do wonders for this lineup because it means Dickey can play Catcher.
CATCHER: I think the Catcher needs to be Dickey. He looked comfortable behind the plate against LSU. Taylor is best utilized as a late inning defensive replacement, but really creates a hole in the lineup. TV hasn't seemed to show much faith in Stark behind the plate. Starting Dickey at Catcher means we get another outfield bat in the lineup instead of Taylor.
PITCHING: Our bullpen has been much better than our starting rotation. I didn't expect that, but I see it as a good thing...because we know what Dollander, Burns, and Beam can do. Those three haven't come close to hitting their stride yet, but they will. When they do, our starting rotation, combined with our elite bullpen will be, well, elite. I think our pitching in May and June will give us a huge leg up.
INFIELD: Ahuna is better than he's shown so far. Denton has been as good as (or better than) expected. Burke has slumped a little lately, but there's no question how good he and Moore are. The concern has been defense with this group. I think all have ability. I suspect that chemistry plays a role, but I do think they can and will get better defensively.
SCHEDULE: We knew the schedule wouldn't do Tennessee any favors. aTm, LSU, Florida, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt in consecutive weekends is brutal. We didn't realize what a disadvantage it would be playing Missouri when we did. a) Temps in the 20s and 30s created a ridiculous environment, and b) Missouri losing their Friday and Saturday starters AFTER playing Tennessee means Tennessee had to play a much better Missouri team than others will. That sweep really put Tennessee behind the 8-ball.
Also, Kentucky doesn't look like the pushover we thought they'd be, although I think their schedule has made them look a little better than they are. The good news is, MSU and Georgia aren't as good as projected. The sweep of aTm was huge. Getting out of Baton Rouge with 1 win was big (even though it felt like we should have won at least one of the other 2). My hope is that Tennessee can go a game over .500 combined against Florida, Arkansas, or Vanderbilt. That may sound conservative to some, but that's just a brutal stretch. Go 5-4 in those games, then maybe go 6-3 (or better) against Kentucky, MSU, and Georgia, and I'm happy. Then we try to win the South Carolina series...a tall order, but doable, especially if our starting rotation has come around by then. So I'm looking at/hoping for a 13-8 finish in the SEC. That puts us at 17-13 in the SEC. Not what we've been the last 2 years, but plenty good enough going into the postseason, given the schedule.
I'm not worried about winning the SEC this year. I'm not worried about winning the SECT, either. If we do either, great. But I'm looking at Omaha. Tennessee is presently 5th in the SEC East (which is much better than the West) and ranked in the top 10. Finish the way I hope and we're hosting a Regional. We're likely hosting a Super Regional, given the difficulty of our schedule and where we would end up ranked (both by human and computer rankings).
WHAT NEEDS TO IMPROVE:
-Defense. See above. The infield has to get better defensively.
-Base-running. No comment needed. We've all seen it. To be fair, Dickey made a great base-running play yesterday, deeking the LSU catcher into throwing behind him so he could take 3rd.
WHAT PROBABLY WILL IMPROVE:
-I think Griffin Merritt will eventually come around.
-Ahuna will bust out at some point. He's too good not to.
-The starting pitching. Three future first rounders and Frank Anderson aren't going to be average all season.
-Kavaris Tears will eventually get healthy. Does he become the regular DH? If so, does Dreiling take an OF spot? Or does Tears take an OF spot instead? Good problem to have.
I feel good about where this team is headed. I think yesterday was a harbinger of what is to come.
OUTFIELD: During the offseason, I didn't think the outfield would be as unsettled as it is this deep into the season. Based on what we'd heard, I thought Backus would likely be a starter. I thought Stanwich would push for a starting job. I thought Booker was ready to break out. Between those guys, Chapman and Drieling, along with Merritt (who, as reigning AAC POY seemed certain to be a major contributor), I figured we were in great shape. But Dreiling apparently isn't ready defensively, Booker hasn't broken out, Merritt hasn't lived up to expectations, and Stanwich took the year off. Backus hasn't even played.
Now the good news: Hunter Ensley seems to have locked down CF and is hitting well. Booker, who has all the tools, busted out against LSU. Christian Scott has shown signs of starting to hit. Those 3 make for a fantastic defensive outfield. If the latter two have "seen the light" at the plate and can be solid there, that would do wonders for this lineup because it means Dickey can play Catcher.
CATCHER: I think the Catcher needs to be Dickey. He looked comfortable behind the plate against LSU. Taylor is best utilized as a late inning defensive replacement, but really creates a hole in the lineup. TV hasn't seemed to show much faith in Stark behind the plate. Starting Dickey at Catcher means we get another outfield bat in the lineup instead of Taylor.
PITCHING: Our bullpen has been much better than our starting rotation. I didn't expect that, but I see it as a good thing...because we know what Dollander, Burns, and Beam can do. Those three haven't come close to hitting their stride yet, but they will. When they do, our starting rotation, combined with our elite bullpen will be, well, elite. I think our pitching in May and June will give us a huge leg up.
INFIELD: Ahuna is better than he's shown so far. Denton has been as good as (or better than) expected. Burke has slumped a little lately, but there's no question how good he and Moore are. The concern has been defense with this group. I think all have ability. I suspect that chemistry plays a role, but I do think they can and will get better defensively.
SCHEDULE: We knew the schedule wouldn't do Tennessee any favors. aTm, LSU, Florida, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt in consecutive weekends is brutal. We didn't realize what a disadvantage it would be playing Missouri when we did. a) Temps in the 20s and 30s created a ridiculous environment, and b) Missouri losing their Friday and Saturday starters AFTER playing Tennessee means Tennessee had to play a much better Missouri team than others will. That sweep really put Tennessee behind the 8-ball.
Also, Kentucky doesn't look like the pushover we thought they'd be, although I think their schedule has made them look a little better than they are. The good news is, MSU and Georgia aren't as good as projected. The sweep of aTm was huge. Getting out of Baton Rouge with 1 win was big (even though it felt like we should have won at least one of the other 2). My hope is that Tennessee can go a game over .500 combined against Florida, Arkansas, or Vanderbilt. That may sound conservative to some, but that's just a brutal stretch. Go 5-4 in those games, then maybe go 6-3 (or better) against Kentucky, MSU, and Georgia, and I'm happy. Then we try to win the South Carolina series...a tall order, but doable, especially if our starting rotation has come around by then. So I'm looking at/hoping for a 13-8 finish in the SEC. That puts us at 17-13 in the SEC. Not what we've been the last 2 years, but plenty good enough going into the postseason, given the schedule.
I'm not worried about winning the SEC this year. I'm not worried about winning the SECT, either. If we do either, great. But I'm looking at Omaha. Tennessee is presently 5th in the SEC East (which is much better than the West) and ranked in the top 10. Finish the way I hope and we're hosting a Regional. We're likely hosting a Super Regional, given the difficulty of our schedule and where we would end up ranked (both by human and computer rankings).
WHAT NEEDS TO IMPROVE:
-Defense. See above. The infield has to get better defensively.
-Base-running. No comment needed. We've all seen it. To be fair, Dickey made a great base-running play yesterday, deeking the LSU catcher into throwing behind him so he could take 3rd.
WHAT PROBABLY WILL IMPROVE:
-I think Griffin Merritt will eventually come around.
-Ahuna will bust out at some point. He's too good not to.
-The starting pitching. Three future first rounders and Frank Anderson aren't going to be average all season.
-Kavaris Tears will eventually get healthy. Does he become the regular DH? If so, does Dreiling take an OF spot? Or does Tears take an OF spot instead? Good problem to have.
I feel good about where this team is headed. I think yesterday was a harbinger of what is to come.
