Bama had some tough games late last year that could have gone either way. And I think Bama lost some key leaders this year to the draft (e.g., Barret Jones). My hope is that they were part of the glue that was holding the ship together.
If they are to take a step backwards, I think it will be because of intangibles (like a lack of leadership, etc.). Saban once blamed the 2010 season on a lack of leadership, afterall.
That said, I think LSU, A&M, or Georgia in the SECCG takes them down.