For one thing, the numbers are actually closer to 47% Palin, 47% Obama, a tie. The Marist poll actually oversample Democrats compared to Republicans by 8 points, and oversamples both of them with Independents. (There has been a rise in Indy voters, but not to the tune of almost 40% of the population. Using historical trends, the anticipated 2012 Voter Turnout rate is 36% D, 36% R, 28% I. If your prefer the Rasmussen Partisan Preference it’s essentially a 3-way tie at 33.5% R, 33% D, and 33.5% I. In either scenario, you end up with a 47-47 tie.
The good news here for Palin again is that among the 6% Undecided, 67% are Independents, 20% are Republicans, and just 13% are Democrats. Undecideds usually tilt towards the challenger and in this case those undecideds are mostly Obama-Disapproving Independents followed by Republicans.
So, beyond reworking the numbers, how do we know that the poll is not a fluke? The easiest way to see it is not a fluke is because this surge only happened in Obama vs Palin, but not in Romney vs Obama. If it were merely growing discontent with Obama and a desire to elect a Republican, we would assume that all candidates would have surged equally or, at worst, half as much.
For one thing, the numbers are actually closer to 47% Palin, 47% Obama, a tie. The Marist poll actually oversample Democrats compared to Republicans by 8 points, and oversamples both of them with Independents. (There has been a rise in Indy voters, but not to the tune of almost 40% of the population. Using historical trends, the anticipated 2012 Voter Turnout rate is 36% D, 36% R, 28% I. If your prefer the Rasmussen Partisan Preference its essentially a 3-way tie at 33.5% R, 33% D, and 33.5% I. In either scenario, you end up with a 47-47 tie.
The good news here for Palin again is that among the 6% Undecided, 67% are Independents, 20% are Republicans, and just 13% are Democrats. Undecideds usually tilt towards the challenger and in this case those undecideds are mostly Obama-Disapproving Independents followed by Republicans.
So, beyond reworking the numbers, how do we know that the poll is not a fluke? The easiest way to see it is not a fluke is because this surge only happened in Obama vs Palin, but not in Romney vs Obama. If it were merely growing discontent with Obama and a desire to elect a Republican, we would assume that all candidates would have surged equally or, at worst, half as much.
Michael Palin I might vote for.![]()
plus one
Posted via VolNation Mobile
Hating Sarah Palin is a cottage industry built around
those intolerant intellectuals who never bothered to
find out just who she is and instead bitterly cling
to their stereotype of her as a Church Lady who shoots
Bambi from helicopters. Those who hate her are shelling
out $13.99 to buy charlatan Joe McGinnisss book,
The Rogue: Searching for the Real Sarah Palin, which
apparently is more fiction than fact.
Thats because Joe McGinniss spent a summer in Alaska
on his publisher, Random Houses dime and could not
come up with anything new.
His words, not mine.
In an e-mail intercepted by Andrew Breitbart, Joe
McGinniss wrote to a gossip blogger: Jesse, if you
can put me in touch with people who are willing and
able to substantiate any of the above, now is the
time to do so. Otherwise, I hope you wont complain
that there are no startling new revelations in my
book.
Here is "the poll from hell" that Scott Rasmussen
wishes he could have back:
Whose VIEWS are closer to yours?
Palin or Obama
------------------PALIN-------OBAMA
OVERALL------------52----------40
MALE---------------55----------37
FEMALE-------------48----------43
WHITES-------------58----------35
BLACKS-------------5-----------87
OTHER--------------49----------32
DEMOCRATS----------14----------81
GOP----------------84----------9
INDEPENDENTS-------59----------27
CONSERVATIVES------80----------12
MODERATES----------28----------61
LIBERALS-----------14----------85
<20K/YR------------40----------42
20K-40K------------55----------39
40K-60K------------52----------42
60K-75K------------41----------49
75K-100K-----------56----------31
100K+--------------55----------42
MAINSTREAM---------63----------28
POLITICAL CLASS----30----------68
18-29--------------52----------34
30-39--------------51----------42
40-49--------------51----------40
50-64--------------52----------40
65+----------------51----------42
Notice the 40% overall number for Obama in this
poll now matches what the Gallup weekly summary
has been finding in the past month in terms of
pegging where Obama's overall approval now sits.
Have we reached the point where there are
perhaps only a very low percentage of the
electorate who now approve of Obama's job performance and also don't share his VIEWS?
When this poll was done a year ago Rasmussen
and Gallup were both showing Obama polling in
the 45%-48% range in job approval.
And finally note that 5 out of 8 mainstream voters
feel their VIEWS are simpatico with Governor Palin
and only 3 in 8 voters feel aligned with Obama.
Obviously the Left does NOT want this poll result
resurrected and neither does the GOP establishment
but once again it proves that Palin is indeed electable
against President Obama next year if voters vote their
conscience and out of self-interest rather than voting
for who the media wants them to vote for.
Bottom line: Obama has done nothing in the past
year to convince the greater majority of voters to
change their VIEW of him. If anything he has only
confirmed or reinforced these VIEWS that they had
of him a year ago.
still doesn't mean she would beat Obama in a general election
I don't want Palin in because I want someone who will be able to come in and not be a focus of the media. She will not get a fair shake with the press even is she is a good president and the next president is going to need to make major changes and a neutral press will help. If she comes in, everything she tries to do will be magnified 1 trillion times.
I also like a few other candidates better like Huntsman, Cain, and even Romney.
Not sure of Perry just sucks as debating but he seems like Bush 2.0 up there.
Now do the Hillary numbers against :salute:them both.....
The McGinniss book is filled with one lie after another.
The final straw for me was when I learned that he used
me as a source for his lies about my sister and brother-
in-laws marriage. He included in his book comments
falsely attributed to me by one of his unnamed sources.
(I notice some here like to repeat these unfounded
rumors as being factual, a pox on you.)gs
Neither McGinniss nor Crown/Random House reached
out to me to verify, or even comment on, this alleged
hearsay from an unnamed source. They just ran with it,
and as a consequence, the tabloids picked it up and
used it to fuel false rumors about my sister getting a
divorce.
All of this is a total lie, and Im sick of seeing
my sister, her family, and our extended family being
trashed by smear-merchants like Joe McGinniss and
his publisher.