Your paycheck is now worth 3.1 percent less than last year

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I think you're mistaken on the debt/deficits as a pandemic anomaly.

I understand the rest. I disagree with the premise. Well, that's not entirely accurate. I can agree with the theoretical premise but disagree with how America applies that premise. Our debt grows faster than our economy. If we could simply cap our debt and allow the economy 50 years to catch up, I think that would be the same as paying down debt today.

The debt has been on a huge run since Reagan. The current deficit levels are an anomaly but well managed stimulus is necessary. Bailing out Democrat cities and forgiving student debt is managing it poorly. Building real infrastructure is doing it correctly.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

Be sure to wear a mask and avoid coughing on the free weights SHEEP!

Just got back. Not a mask in sight. I do spray down the machines and the free weights, because people are disgusting pigs and they hit the bathroom.. take a dump and walk right out to the floor and start lifting.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The near zero interest rates are another anomaly. The dot gov should be selling as much of the long term obligations as the bond markets can handle… IF there could be some restraint on the spending. Which is a concept that those in office are rarely able to grasp.

 

[McDad]

The debt has been on a huge run since Reagan. The current deficit levels are an anomaly but well managed stimulus is necessary. Bailing out Democrat cities and forgiving student debt is managing it poorly. Building real infrastructure is doing it correctly.

It has been on a huge run. That run became a sprint during Bush2's war and QE. Obama added trillions. So did Trump.

That's why I disagreed the debt/deficit is a pandemic anomaly.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

It doesn't seem like a foregone conclusion to me, and the bond market reflects that.

So you believe we can continue to add the kinds of spending increases ad infinitum with no consequence?

 

[Velo Vol]

Previous inflation storm.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

Anything under 2% is basically free money so it makes sense sometimes.

This is true. I can throw darts at the stock market and make 5%, so getting a low interest home loan and investing more cash pays it off a lot faster. But of course Xiden wants to increase the cap gains tax so there's that.....

 

[McDad]

Previous inflation storm.

How dare she serve herself before she serves her husband! I hope she learned how to be a good housewife.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

I've always heard that said, but never could wrap my head around it then or now.

I can't rationalize the debt itself as being a good thing either unless it is debt that gives you deductions and someone else is paying the freight as in rental properties. The mortgage deduction is a bill of goods in that you don't get what it appears you are getting in terms of tax reduction.

Kind of like the term 'diversity'. I still don't know why that is such a 'good' thing.

 

[Velo Vol]

So you believe we can continue to add the kinds of spending increases ad infinitum with no consequence?

I think the inflation bump we're seeing right now will be short lived, not long-term.

Runaway inflation doesn't happen these days unless there's a breakdown in production.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

IMO inflation is a far different animal now than it was when Carter was POTUS and it was almost out of control. Cheap Chinese manufacturing has created 2 sets of data. Housing inflation is soaring. Clothes and computers and crap on the shelves at Walmart are still cheap. There is inflation once again on energy so EVERYTHING will trickle up but it could be gradual… the pandemic throttled spending.

Purchases that consumers typically borrow for before buying, like vehicles, have inflated because of consumer demand created by the cheap money. Food is a good barometer as people typically don’t take out loans to buy groceries (except for credit card debt) but food is heavily dependent on oil.

Sure seems like the high dollar items are being hit hard. Housing, vehicles, (you forgot lumber and plywood) and college education due to the cheap money and competition from consumers.

IMO, O’Biden really screwed up with his pipeline EO. But it made oil equities once again investable.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

I think the inflation bump we're seeing right now will be short lived, not long-term.

Runaway inflation doesn't happen these days unless there's a breakdown in production.

So you do think we can keep adding these spending numbers.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

It has been on a huge run. That run became a sprint during Bush2's war and QE. Obama added trillions. So did Trump.

That's why I disagreed the debt/deficit is a pandemic anomaly.

I think that annual deficits can get back below a trillion. This multi-trillion dollar spike is an anomaly. It’s also just a (proposed) budget right now. Maybe they can do something crazy like not spend it all.

I believe that Trump was heading toward a balanced budget before the Rona upset the trends.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Lumber and plywood are embedded in housing. My mother doesn’t have to buy two by fours.

 

[McDad]

I think that annual deficits can get back below a trillion. This multi-trillion dollar spike is an anomaly. It’s also just a (proposed) budget right now. Maybe they can do something crazy like not spend it all.

I believe that Trump was heading toward a balanced budget before the Rona upset the trends.

As much as I wish your opinions were reality, I see absolutely no evidence which lends credence that your thoughts have a chance in becoming reality.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

As much as I wish your opinions were reality, I see absolutely no evidence which lends credence your thoughts have a chance in becoming reality.

The cost of borrowing to service the ND has helped. Since Trump already took the big hit on military spending that the previous administration let slide the discretionary side shouldn’t get hammered.

Socialist health care initiatives could blow up it all up.

 

[McDad]

The cost of borrowing to service the ND has helped. Since Trump already took the big hit on military spending that the previous administration let slide the discretionary side shouldn’t get hammered.

Socialist health care initiatives could blow up it all up.

The interest on the ND is the only reasonable argument I can understand which suggests low interest rates are almost guaranteed.

I used to think like you. I really did. One party adjusts spending from one sacred cow to the another. The other party must adjust spending back to nourish the famished sacred cow to the detriment of the other sacred cow. And so on and so on.

I don't think like that anymore. I don't see spending changing that much with any sacred cow. All I see is that more spending and borrowing is passed to keep all the bovine bloated.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

The interest on the ND is the only reasonable argument I can understand which suggests low interest rates are almost guaranteed.

I used to think like you. I really did. One party adjusts spending from one sacred cow to the another. The other party must adjust spending back to nourish the famished sacred cow to the detriment of the other sacred cow. And so on and so on.

I don't think like that anymore. I don't see spending changing that much with any sacred cow. All I see is that more spending and borrowing is passed to keep all the bovine bloated.

So how do we protect ourselves? That's the question I have been asking for over 10 years now.

 

[McDad]

So how do we protect ourselves? That's the question I have been asking for over 10 years now.

How do we protect ourselves from who (or what)?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

So how do we protect ourselves? That's the question I have been asking for over 10 years now.

Diversify and stay balanced (not too much real estate relative to other investments). Precious metals to hedge inflation. International funds… although every country is facing much the same (or worse) than the US. A few percent in crypto. Ammunition and canned food. Can’t really buy debt yet as the rates will be rising and near term interest rates are garbage.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Vote out the socialists.

I can not believe how it has only taken a couple of generations to go from communism is the devil’s work to now a sizable, naive proportion of yutes to embrace it.

 

[Velo Vol]

So you do think we can keep adding these spending numbers.

The COVID year spending? No.

I believe that Trump was heading toward a balanced budget before the Rona upset the trends.

The federal deficit increased every year of his presidency.

 

[Velo Vol]

So how do we protect ourselves? That's the question I have been asking for over 10 years now.

Own a broad index of stocks.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The COVID year spending? No.

The federal deficit increased every year of his presidency.

View attachment 371359

Yes. He lowered taxes. That creates bigger short term deficits but government revenues would go up in the longer view.

We’ll never know as the pandemic blew up the end of his first term and the Left managed to push him out before a second. But IMO the budget would have been balanced before the end of a second term even with the COVID.

 

[Velo Vol]

We’ll never know as the pandemic blew up the end of his first term and the Left managed to push him out before a second. But IMO the budget would have been balanced before the end of a second term even with the COVID.

I guess you forgot how, at the end of his term, Trump was urging the Republicans to outspend the Democrats.

Trump undercuts GOP, calls for bigger COVID-19 relief package

Democrats are “heartless”. They don’t want to give STIMULUS PAYMENTS to people who desperately need the money, and whose fault it was NOT that the plague came in from China. Go for the much higher numbers, Republicans, it all comes back to the USA anyway (one way or another!).​

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 16, 2020​