Rifleman
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This time of year, a lot of hype and manure is spread without much regard for fact, and there is a lot of media speculation around who will do what based on factors that are irrelevant to the final outcomes of the season.
Let's be real here. There are some in the media who are over-hyping the strength of this Tennessee football team. There are some who "hate us" and won't give us our due respect.
It is true that we are not at the level of our last championship team, which was one of the greatest college teams ever in my opinion. But does that mean that Tennessee at this point in our rebuild is not a contender to win it all? I say we are.
This seems contradictory, sure, but the playing field is college football is not level. Every NCAA team does not play the same strength of schedule, which is why certain colleges in other conferences are perennial contenders even when they field mediocre teams.
This year, the field tilts a little in our favor. Using the ESPN FPI predictors, I have calculated the probability that a given team will go undefeated throughout the regular season. To me, this is the best measure of who is, and isn't, a contender, because the first step in getting to the playoff is beating the opponents on your schedule.
Contender Rank by Chance of Undefeated Regular Season
1) Oklahoma 21.5%
2) FSU 12.06%
3) Clemson 9.7%
4) LSU 8.47%
5) Tennessee 8.05%
6) Michigan 8.04%
7) Washington 2.7%
8) Oklahoma State 2.01%
9) Alabama 1.63%
10) Georgia 1.46%
11) UCLA 1.4%
12) Nebraska 1.19%
13) USC 1.10%
14) Louisville 1.04%
15) Baylor 1.00%
By this metric, Tennessee and LSU would be the most likely match up in the SEC title game. As long as both were undefeated, then the winner would advance to the playoff. The same is very likely true if both teams were at 1 loss.
The best odds for the playoff:
Oklahoma
Conference Title Game Winners
Florida State/Clemson
LSU/Tennessee
Michigan/Nebraska
Washington/UCLA (probably on the outside looking in)
Sure this is not the best team we have ever seen at Tennessee, but it is by far the best we have seen in a long while. We catch Florida and Bama at home, and we have always played tough at UGA. Even a 1 loss Tennessee team would likely make the playoff if they won in Atlanta.
So, no, I do not think it is a stretch to say we are contenders to win it all. We have a very realistic shot to be one of the 4 teams left standing at the end.
Let's be real here. There are some in the media who are over-hyping the strength of this Tennessee football team. There are some who "hate us" and won't give us our due respect.
It is true that we are not at the level of our last championship team, which was one of the greatest college teams ever in my opinion. But does that mean that Tennessee at this point in our rebuild is not a contender to win it all? I say we are.
This seems contradictory, sure, but the playing field is college football is not level. Every NCAA team does not play the same strength of schedule, which is why certain colleges in other conferences are perennial contenders even when they field mediocre teams.
This year, the field tilts a little in our favor. Using the ESPN FPI predictors, I have calculated the probability that a given team will go undefeated throughout the regular season. To me, this is the best measure of who is, and isn't, a contender, because the first step in getting to the playoff is beating the opponents on your schedule.
Contender Rank by Chance of Undefeated Regular Season
1) Oklahoma 21.5%
2) FSU 12.06%
3) Clemson 9.7%
4) LSU 8.47%
5) Tennessee 8.05%
6) Michigan 8.04%
7) Washington 2.7%
8) Oklahoma State 2.01%
9) Alabama 1.63%
10) Georgia 1.46%
11) UCLA 1.4%
12) Nebraska 1.19%
13) USC 1.10%
14) Louisville 1.04%
15) Baylor 1.00%
By this metric, Tennessee and LSU would be the most likely match up in the SEC title game. As long as both were undefeated, then the winner would advance to the playoff. The same is very likely true if both teams were at 1 loss.
The best odds for the playoff:
Oklahoma
Conference Title Game Winners
Florida State/Clemson
LSU/Tennessee
Michigan/Nebraska
Washington/UCLA (probably on the outside looking in)
Sure this is not the best team we have ever seen at Tennessee, but it is by far the best we have seen in a long while. We catch Florida and Bama at home, and we have always played tough at UGA. Even a 1 loss Tennessee team would likely make the playoff if they won in Atlanta.
So, no, I do not think it is a stretch to say we are contenders to win it all. We have a very realistic shot to be one of the 4 teams left standing at the end.
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