Tennessee is an early underdog at home against Kentucky

#27
#27
McDad said:
Thanks, JP. You've made this degenerate gambler's day.
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p.s. Another way they make money off the way-early bets is this: from the day you make your bet until the day of the game, they're holding your money and can make interest off it. While you have given up that opportunity with that money.

So you send them $1,000, they keep it six months at 3% annual interest rate, and earn 1.5% off it. Then, say 3-5% of early bettors forget they made a bet, and never cash in, that's another 3-5% profit. Finally, the house gets their take, another 5%-10%.

Yep, you will almost certainly make money on this bet, McDad, if you don't forget to cash in. But Vegas is going to make money on the line, too. Plenty. They ain't dumb. :)
 
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#28
#28
sonofUT62 said:
Justify was the favorite dummy. And by a good margin. 😂😂😂😂😂
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My bad I guess I misread the article about the guy placing a $500 bet on justify back in February at the Wynn and it paying off at $150,000 😉
 
#30
#30
0nelilreb said:
My bad I guess I misread the article about the guy placing a $500 bet on justify back in February at the Wynn and it paying off at $150,000 😉
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Sure he didn't win $15,000 on a $500 bet? Or $150,000 on a $5,000 bet?

The odds did start at about 28:1 or 30:1 back in February, before dropping to 3:1 or 3.5:1 just before the race. Depending on which betting house you look at, of course.

But don't think they were ever 300:1.

here's an example of the evolution of the odds with one of the houses:

Justify: 2018 Kentucky Derby Betting Odds Analysis | Odds Shark
 
#32
#32
VFL-82-JP said:
Sure he didn't win $15,000 on a $500 bet? Or $150,000 on a $5,000 bet?

The odds did start at about 28:1 or 30:1 back in February, before dropping to 3:1 or 3.5:1 just before the race. Depending on which betting house you look at, of course.

But don't think they were ever 300:1.

here's an example of the evolution of the odds with one of the houses:

Justify: 2018 Kentucky Derby Betting Odds Analysis | Odds Shark
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Sorry I can’t post a link but it’s a sports illustrated article that I read this morning . Said the ticket was verified and showed a picture of the bet .
 
#34
#34
#36
#36
davethevol said:
I know we’ve got better coaches across the board this year, but after watching the spring game I just don’t see this team being that much better this year. It reminds me of the squad Dooley started with. No real identity.
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I’m afraid Pruitt will have to cycle out most of the soft, untalented players before a real identity forms. Even if you “coach up” slaw it’s still slaw.
 
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#41
#41
Freak said:
We gotta have something to discuss in May. Lol.

I found it a little surprising, honestly.
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This is the time of year when college football writers are looking for anything to justify their next paycheck. That's why there's always a crowd of them following Spurrier, Leach, and Saban around.

Tennessee Football is one great big unknown heading into this season. We have no idea if Pruitt can really run a program; consistently recruit at the highest level; whether his staff can develop, scheme, and coach; in-game strategy changes and adjustments; how good the roster really is; what sort of depth we might or might not have; ad nauseam.

The early returns on Pruitt and his staff are promising, but that's all. The schedule is tough, bordering on brutal from September 22nd to October 27th. There is literally nothing to build upon from last season; Pruitt & Company are having to start from scratch. New offense, new defense, new attitude, new everything.

Talent? Yes, but how good is it really? We just simply have no idea what to expect from the 2018 Tennessee Volunteers football team. And neither do the writers. They're just slinging it out there to fill a column.

Right now, I'd say we're favorites against ETSU, UTEP, and Charlotte. 'dogs against WVU, UGA, Auburn, Bama, and probably USCe. The rest are toss-ups at this point, with UF and Mizzou only being so because the games are in Neyland.
I can see anything from 4-8 to 8-4. And...I'm guessing. Just like the writers.

I'm fine with the thread, I just couldn't resist the urge to yank your chain over starting a thread that I've seen you shake your head at countless times. Then again, it's been a few years since you put me in Time Out, so.....

:thud:
 
#42
#42
VolFreakJosh said:
A better coached Tennessee team would have destroyed UK last year.
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Nearly beat em anyway.....with Lyle Jones as head coach, Larry Scott as OC and Bob “no one will run on UT” Shoop as DC....with a 75 yard TD run by Chandler called back due to penalty

So yes Josh, I tend to agree. Decent coaching staff insures we’d have beaten them last year. We’ll handle them by two touchdowns this year imho.
 
#44
#44
Brave Volunteer said:
According to some he did. Graduated class of 97.
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Not a Manning fan, eh? He certainly wasn’t perfect, but he was pretty good. Was QB when Tennessee rattled off 39 wins in 45 games. Most of us would love to have a QB and young man of his caliber leading the team to that type of success again, that’s all.
 
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#45
#45
Following last season's disaster these negative predictions come as no surprise. Hope the Vols play with that chip on their shoulders, they have a tough row to hoe this season.
 
#46
#46
Jack Burton said:
I’m afraid Pruitt will have to cycle out most of the soft, untalented players before a real identity forms. Even if you “coach up” slaw it’s still slaw.
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Definitely. There’s going to have to be a huge culture change.
 
#47
#47
I don't have a problem with this prediction by itself, but assuming a loss here conflicts with the over/under win predictions advertised by other sources. No way will TN win five games total if they lose to Kentucky.
 
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#48
#48
GreyWolf1129 said:
This is the time of year when college football writers are looking for anything to justify their next paycheck. That's why there's always a crowd of them following Spurrier, Leach, and Saban around.

Tennessee Football is one great big unknown heading into this season. We have no idea if Pruitt can really run a program; consistently recruit at the highest level; whether his staff can develop, scheme, and coach; in-game strategy changes and adjustments; how good the roster really is; what sort of depth we might or might not have; ad nauseam.

The early returns on Pruitt and his staff are promising, but that's all. The schedule is tough, bordering on brutal from September 22nd to October 27th. There is literally nothing to build upon from last season; Pruitt & Company are having to start from scratch. New offense, new defense, new attitude, new everything.

Talent? Yes, but how good is it really? We just simply have no idea what to expect from the 2018 Tennessee Volunteers football team. And neither do the writers. They're just slinging it out there to fill a column.

Right now, I'd say we're favorites against ETSU, UTEP, and Charlotte. 'dogs against WVU, UGA, Auburn, Bama, and probably USCe. The rest are toss-ups at this point, with UF and Mizzou only being so because the games are in Neyland.
I can see anything from 4-8 to 8-4. And...I'm guessing. Just like the writers.

I'm fine with the thread, I just couldn't resist the urge to yank your chain over starting a thread that I've seen you shake your head at countless times. Then again, it's been a few years since you put me in Time Out, so.....

:thud:
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There are lots of unknowns for sure. Unfortunately, it seems like it's been that way around Tennessee football for a while now.

It's going to be a bumpy year, with the consensus over/under probably in the middle of your range: around the 6-6 mark, from what I've seen.

Still, I'll be shocked in November if we aren't favored against Kentucky.

Like I said, I found the line interesting, but I'll be the first to admit this one isn't one of my highest quality threads. lol.
 
#50
#50
Freak said:
I've read from a couple of different sources that Kentucky has never been favored in Knoxville.


[twitter]1000042067530149889[/twitter]
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Kentucky could have been favored going into the 1950 game. Under the leadership of Bear Bryant, the blue-bellied boys were undefeated (10-0) and ranked 3rd in the country prior to their matchup with the 9th ranked Volunteers, who were then 8-1 and would go on to defeat Texas in the Cotton Bowl, 20-14.

“When the Kentucky team flew into Knoxville the Friday before the game, it found a chilly situation – and not just from the Tennessee fans. An unusual-for-November six-inch snowfall took place, and temperatures would fall to 18 degrees by game time. . . . When the game took place, only 45,000 actually attended. But those who did come enjoyed a game for the ages. Knoxville Journal sports writer Ben Byrd called it perhaps the greatest football game ever played at Shields-Watkins Field (later Neyland Stadium).

The weather helped dictate the game, as Kentucky lost 8 of 9 fumbles, while Tennessee lost 4 of 7. It was one Kentucky fumble that would prove to be the costliest one of the game, however. In the second quarter, Bob Davis recovered a Kentucky fumble on the Wildcat 36. Then, on the drive, Herky Payne fumbled for Tennessee. But Dan Bordinger, a reserve guard, made perhaps the play of his career in getting back on it.

On the very next play, Tennessee tailback Hank Lauricella – who would finish second in the Heisman Trophy voting in 1951 -- hit Bert Rechichar on a 27-yard pass for a touchdown. Pat Shires muffed the extra point, but Kentucky was penalized. He then made the second extra point attempt to put the Vols up 7-0” for what would prove to be the only score of the game (John Shearer: The Tennessee/Kentucky Rivalry Dates Back To 1950 - Chattanoogan.com).
 
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