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For the most part, the national narrative around Tennessee is that they’re a low-talent team coming off a 4-8 season with a first-time head coach. Because of that, most national analysts aren’t predicting much success for the Vols in 2018. Florida, on the other hand, is viewed as a team returning a decently talented roster with a proven head coach (albeit a new head coach for them) who should challenge for at least the second spot behind Georgia in the SEC East despite coming off a 4-7 season last year.
But how accurate are those narratives? Does Florida actually have a lot more returning talent than the Vols?
Back in late July, I took a look at how much talent remained on Tennessee’s roster heading into fall camp and Jeremy Pruitt’s first year as head coach. Using that data as comparison, I scoured through Florida’s entire online roster to figure out how their talent compares to what Tennessee returns this year.
The results might surprise you.
Using the 247Sports Composite rankings, I discovered that of Florida’s 81 qualifying players, they have two five-stars, 31 four-stars, 44 three-stars, and four two-stars on their 2018 roster. Those numbers don’t include three-star safety Quincy Lenton who suffered a season-ending injury last week, three-star safety Randy Russell who had his career cut short in January after discovering a heart condition, and four-star defensive back Justin Watkins who left the team following two offseason arrests.
Florida’s 81-man roster averages a 3.38 star rating per player. And when you compare that number to Tennessee’s number, the Vols actually have a slightly more talented overall roster than the Gators heading into this season.
Even not including four-star linebacker J.J. Peterson into the equation for Tennessee, the Vols’ average star rating per player on their roster among their 83 qualifying players is 3.41 stars. Tennessee has two five-stars, 32 four-stars, 47 three-stars, and two two-stars currently on their roster. Of course, if Peterson makes it in and officially joins the Vols, Tennessee’s average will be bumped slightly and climb to 3.42 stars per player.
But the data doesn’t lie: According to the 247Sports Composite rankings, the Vols have slightly more talent than Florida heading into this season. So why are the narratives around the two teams so different despite both coming off four-win seasons and making coaching changes in the offseason?
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Florida’s schedule overall might be easier, but the data shows that when both the Gators and Vols face off in Knoxville this year, their talent will be nearly equal. The question will be which new head coach can get the most out of their squads come September 22nd.
Comparing the Talent Levels at Tennessee and Florida | Rocky Top Insider