DiderotsGhost
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Time for the 2nd edition of this list. This is a revised version of my original list. I've moved around a few candidates based on discussions on this board. Also added several more based on comments on VN and in the media. A few comments on the overall search first.
The Landscape
There are no home run hires. Everyone wants the home run hire, but the unfortunate truth of the matter is that there are no candidates that are sure-fire successes here. There are some great and very promising candidates, but no home runs.
Its a tricky business. Pete Carroll was the 5th choice at USC; many USC fans hated the hire; Carroll turned out to be one of the most successful college coaches of all-time. Dabo Swinney was picked at Clemson after what was basically a failed search. Fans were disappointed. Swinney is now considered to be one of the 5 most successful coaches in the game. Meanwhile, plenty of moves that were considered great hires ended up being giant duds. Jim Mora at UCLA was considered a home run and he had early success, but hasnt been able to sustain it. Rich Rod at Michigan was considered close to a home run and that experiment ended after 3 years. (Let's also not forget that Nick Saban was Bama's 2nd choice behind RichRod.) Charlie Strong was considered one of most promising coaches out there and failed at Texas. Finding a great coach is a trickier business than most realize.
Fierce competition. Unfortunately, we will have tough competition this go around, with several high-profile openings out there: Florida, Texas A&M (likely), UCLA, Nebraska (likely), and Arkansas (likely). Florida and A&M, in particular, could challenge for candidates that will be interested in the Tennessee job, as well.
Job is more attractive than in 2010 and 2012. We have talent. The recruiting landscape in Tennessee continues to get better every year. The next coach will have some issues to correct, but he will not inherit the absolute trainwreck Butch did or the dismal situation Dooley walked into. This is the most attractive the Tennessee job has been since 2008 when we inexplicably handed the keys to Kiffin.
Beating Saban is a major challenge. Contrary to popular perception, the SEC is filled with very good coaches. Its just that the good coaches (Malzahn, Sumlin, McElwain, Mullen) have mostly beat each other up and none of them have been able to compete with the Nick Saban juggernaut. To make matters worse, it appears that Kirby Smart is now creating Alabama Junior at Georgia. There are plenty of good coaches out there; its going to take a great coach to win against Saban and Smart. And there simply arent a lot of great coaches out there.
Tennessee has major resources. The value that football brings to UT is immense. The university could afford to shell out $10 million annually for the right coach. But its also not a wise idea to just go throwing around money willy-nilly as we have seen that locking up coaches for huge contracts tends not to work out well when those coaches underperform significantly.
Coaching matters. Good coaching is often the difference between a middling program and a great one. We saw it at Alabama from the late 90s into the mid 00's. Similar deal with USC prior to Pete Carroll and Miami has been down for over a decade before finally "being back" this season with Mark Richt. We have a lot of talent on the roster, tons of resources, excellent facilities, one of the best stadiums in the country, but what we've lacked for a decade is great coaching.
The Candidates
Here are some of the candidates, ranked by my preference. Im sure Im missing some.
Top Tier
I'm defining a "top tier" hire as one that is relatively low-risk and high reward. I'd be very excited about any of the coaches in this "Top Tier" getting the job.
1. Justin Fuente. Long shot IMO. Gary Patterson protégé. I'd consider Fuente's turnaround job at Memphis to be one of the 5 most impressive jobs of this century. He turned a historically terrible Memphis program into a legit top 25 team. Turned VT around in 1 year and has been impressive in Year #2. One of the best offensive minds in the country. Unfortunately, I dont think hes leaving VT. Fuente took the VT job because of his strong relationship with AD Whit Babcock. He has a top 5 Defensive Coordinator in Bud Foster, who is probably staying until retirement. Expectations are lower. Path to conference title and playoff much easier in ACC than in the SEC. Already makes $3.2 million; while we could outbid VT, I suspect its more likely that hed get a nice raise and stay at VT. Still, if Im John Currie, I make the call, even if Im likely to get rejected.
2. Scott Frost. Excellent coach. Crushing it at UCF this year. Helfrichs OC at Oregon the 3 good years. One of the few coaches who has been a coordinator on both sides of the ball, as he was a DC at Northern Iowa before going to Oregon to coach on the offensive side. A list of mentors that is nearly insane (Tom Osborne, Bill Walsh, Chip Kelly, Jon Gruden, Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick). Out of the up-and-comers, the closest thing to a home run hire IMO. In spite of relatively short track record as HC, he's been extremely impressive in everything he's done. Biggest issue is that it will be tough to get him with both Florida and Nebraska likely having openings this season.
3. Dan Mullen. Hes done more with less at Miss State. 8 consecutive bowl games if you count this year (including an Orange Bowl appearance) at the toughest job in the SEC. Won 2 national titles as OC at Florida and turned Tim Tebow into a Heisman Trophy winner. Also molded Alex Smith into a top NFL prospect at Utah. Hes routinely coached up QBs, including current NFL QB Dak Prescott and 2-star QB Nick Fitzgerald. Could do wonders with someone like Jarrett Guarantano. Hes significantly improved recruiting at Miss State; which used to be ranked in the 40s and 50s recruiting wise, but has been boosted to the 20s and 30s under Mullen. Oh, and hes only 45, which is how old Nick Saban was during his 2nd season at Michigan State back when he was a Google coach Biggest issue with getting Mullen is that he already makes $4.5 million, which is about the same as Butch. How much more do you have to pay him to come to Knoxville? Is it worth the risk? Its not easy to recruit to Starkville. Hed get better players in Knoxville and would get to compete on a more level playing field. The case against Mullen is mostly that hes struggled against the top 20. However, hes never been close in talent to programs like Alabama, Auburn, LSU, and Texas A&M. He routinely has a schedule where he faces 5-6 teams with vastly superior talent, but he routinely has 8 - 10 win seasons. With better resources, Mullen could attract top talent, and conceivably compete for a national title at Tennessee. If he can win as much as he has at Miss State playing w/ a severe disadvantage, he can achieve even better results in Knoxville with some of the best resources in the nation.
4. Gary Patterson. Also a long-shot. Wouldve been a great hire back in 2008. Hes 57 now. Would he really want to start over? Hes taken TCU to heights never anticipated, but he has had a few down years recently (2013 and 2016). Nevertheless, undoubtedly one of the best coaches in the game.
5. Willie Taggart. Ill state for the record that I do not think Taggart is a realistic candidate, but there are some rumblings that things arent working out in Oregon. Id waive those off as fake news for now, but if it were true, Taggart did an excellent job turning around USF. He took over a 3-9 team and had them at 11-2 within 4 years. The USF team that is 9-1 this season was built by Taggart. Taggart also took a 0-12 Western Kentucky program and turned it into a winning program in 2 seasons. Hes a Jim Harbaugh protégé, who knows how to recruit south Florida and the Southeast. Oregon is a top-tier job, particularly with Nikes resources, but it was sort of a questionable fit given Taggarts background. My guess is that he stays at Oregon and hes having success there in 2-3 years, but if hes available, we absolutely should consider him.
6. Brent Venables. One of the best DCs in the nation. A top-notch recruiter. Hes a major reason behind Clemsons recent success. His resume is basically a dream in terms of mentors: Bill Snyder, Bob Stoops, Dabo Swinney. He was DC for two different national championship teams. Even though hes a defensive guy, he has a lot of connections, so its reasonable to believe he could fix the offense as well. The downsides are that he has no head coaching experience and given that hes not an offensive guru, even if he made a great OC hire, its probably going to take a few years to get the offense fixed.
Second Tier
I define a "2nd tier hire" as one with high upside, but significant risks. Risk, in many cases, comes from limited track records as a college coach, or no experience as head coach, or experience that may not translate. Nevertheless, I'd be optimistic about any of the coaches in the 2nd tier.
1. Jon Gruden. I will receive a lot of hate for this, but even assuming Gruden wants to walk away from a $6.5 million year job where he only has to work one day a week, Gruden is 2nd tier hire IMHO. Not that it matters, because I dont think hed consider a college opening; hes an NFL guy. Gruden was an above-average NFL coach who is brilliant at Xs and Os, but the number of coaches who have made a successful NFL to college transition is pretty limited. Pete Carroll is one of the few success stories and the failures include Jim Mora, Mike Sherman, Bill Callahan, and Dave Wannstadt. In the college game, player development is vastly more important than Xs and Os and Grudens biggest weakness in the NFL was player development. On the plus side, Grudens name recognition would almost certainly result in top 5 recruiting classes. I also think Grudens personality works better in college than some of the other failures on the NFL-to-college list. Perhaps Gruden could also figure out staff hires that would accommodate for his own weaknesses. Im not against Gruden by any stretch of the imagination; just view him as a high-risk / high-reward hire. Sure he could be very successful, but unlike the guys in my 1st Tier, I could also see a scenario where Gruden has 8-5 type seasons regularly and fares about as well as Jim Mora did at UCLA. Also worth noting that Bill Callahan was Jon Grudens OC at Oakland and Callahan failed miserably as Head Coach at Nebraska primarily because his offense was too complex for college. That concerns me a bit.
2. Tee Martin. Very underrated IMO. Great recruiter. Very good OC. Hes never been a head coach before, and Tennessee isnt exactly the easiest job to start with, but he has been at USC for several seasons, so he knows what its like to be in the pressure cooker. I wouldnt quite put him on the level as Venables in terms of success, but hes been very good. Hed be a gamble, but a reasonable one IMO if no top-tier candidate pans out. Also, for those clamoring for Lane Kiffin, Martin basically brings a Lane Kiffin style offense without Lane Kiffin style baggage and immaturity. The other big benefit with Martin; hes a Wide Receiver and Quarterback coach and those are our two biggest problem areas right now.
3. P.J. Fleck. May or may not be realistic given that he's only been at Minnesota for less than a season. Fleck has an excellent track record in a very short period of time and hes very young at age 36. He's also a former NFL Wide Receiver, which is great, because Wide Receiver is the position that is in greatest need of "fixing" at UT. His buyout appears rather manageable. Biggest question mark: can he recruit the South? He's been a Midwestern guy for his entire coaching career. Not quite first tier to me because his track record just isnt long enough, but very promising thus far. Id mostly ignore his results at Minnesota, as its rare for coaches to immediately have a program running well in Year 1.
4. Joe Moorhead. Very underrated. Not a well-known name, but he's been the OC at Penn State the past two seasons. Penn States offense took off after he took over and hes put up high point totals against some very good defenses. Id consider him among the 5 best OCs in the nation. Also a former Head Coach at Fordham, who took over a 1-10 team and turned them into a playoff team within 2 seasons; made the FCS playoffs his last 3 seasons. Hes the anti-Butch; he took over a Fordham program with few resources and major disadvantages and had to innovate his way to success. Moorhead could be a Jim Tressel diamond in the rough type that people are ignoring largely because a good chunk of his career was spent in FCS. Right now, Id consider Moorhead to be one of the best out of the realistic candidates. Biggest question mark for me is recruiting. Moorhead has only been at a big time program (Penn State) for two years and I dont see a lot of evidence that hes a top-notch recruiter. If it werent for the question marks on recruiting, Id consider Moorhead 1st Tier.
5. Matt Campbell. Iowa State coach that is making some noise in only his 2nd season. Iowa State is arguably one of the toughest jobs in the Big 12 and Campbell is doing very well. Big upset win over a top 5 Oklahoma team on the road. Very good track record at Toledo before I State. Nevertheless, track record is pretty short. Huge buyout makes it unlikely that he will be considered seriously.
6. Mike Norvell. Great offensive mind. Limited track record. Hes been successful in his 2 years at Memphis, but Justin Fuente built the program up before he got there. Nevertheless, his offenses have been very impressive. Hed be an upgrade over Butch Jones on the offensive end, at the very least. While Id rather have one of the names above him on this list, I wouldnt be disappointed with Norvell. At a minimum, hed be an improvement over Butch Jones. Id consider Norvell a realistic worst case scenario except that weve had enough bad hires that I realize that ADs are completely capable in coming up with outside the box awful hires (see Derek Dooley).
7. Chad Morris. Very accomplished as the former OC at Clemson under Dabo Swinney. He's slowly been rebuilding at SMU where he took over a 1-11 program. He's yet to turn the corner at SMU, but he has them competitive again at 6-4 with close games versus UCF and Navy. Morris could be a very good hire, but tough to evaluate him based on the mess he took over at SMU.
8. Jeff Brohm. On one hand, Brohms record is really not that different from Butch Jones before he got here. On the other hand, Brohm is actually one of the most well-respected offensive minds in the game. Hes basically Bobby Petrino w/o the baggage of Bobby Petrino. Hes known as an excellent QB coach and we desperately need that. Though, we really have no idea how hed do with recruiting or anything like that. Some have concerns that hed bolt for Louisville (his alma mater) if the job came open, but if he took the Tennessee job, I suspect he has ambitions to win a national title and he realizes that Tennessee is a better place for that than Louisville.
9. Chip Kelly. Very impressive record at Oregon (46-7) with 4 BCS bowl appearances. On paper, he looks like a dream candidate. In reality, Im very skeptical that he can achieve those results again. Biggest problem is that NFL defenses figured him out within a few years to the point that the defenses were literally calling out the plays before they happened. His last year in Philly and San Fran were disasters. Kellys gimmick was the Hurry-Up No-Huddle offense, but this offense requires simplification, and defenses have increasingly adapted to it. Its easy to say guys like Saban and Spurrier went to the NFL, failed and then went back to college to major success, and assume that applies to Kelly as well. But Saban is a master recruiter and organization guy and Kelly hasnt shown the same ability to adapt his offense that Spurrier has. Kelly notoriously hates boosters and recruiting, a bad combination in Knoxville. I question whether hed fit in at Tennessee and could see him failing in the same way that RichRod did in Ann Arbor. Not saying he couldnt change his offense and have huge success; I just see him as a much bigger risk than most. If we could get him on the cheap for $3 million, Id elevate him to first tier and say we should consider the risk. However, were probably going to have to pay him $6 million plus to lure him here and then he could flop big-time and were stuck in a worse situation than we were before. I just see him as too big of a risk given his likely salary demands.
Third Tier
My "3rd tier" candidates are mostly "good coaches" who I don't think can become elite coaches at Tennessee, or who have other issues (the special case of Lane Kiffin). I admit I would be disappointed if we hired any of the coaches on this list, but I could see a few of them having potential to work out.
1. Charlie Strong. Tough to figure him out. Had great success at Louisville. Bombed at Texas. Doing very well with Willie Taggarts players at USF. Hes a good coach and DC; just tough to explain why he fared so poorly at Texas, but has done well literally everywhere else hes been.
2. Neal Brown. Impressive win against LSU. Doing pretty well at Troy. That said, very short track record and he gets a lot of wins every season beating up on some absolutely awful teams. Not clear to me if his success would translate to the SEC.
3. Kevin Sumlin. A very good and underrated coach, but not elite. Unfortunately, the SEC West got the best of him, but I could see him being very successful somewhere --- just not here. If he failed against Bama at Texas A&M, then hes likely to fail in Knoxville as well. I kind hope to see him get a second chance at somewhere like UCLA or maybe a Big 12 job in the future.
4. Dave Doeren. Like Charlie Strong, tough to figure out. He's a good coach, but not clear if he can be a "great coach." Very impressively led Northern Illinois to the Orange Bowl back in 2012. He's had flashes of brilliance at NC State, but has never truly broken through. 8-5, 7-6, and 7-6 his past three seasons, with a few near-wins against power programs. Doeren is 7-3 this season with a win over Louisville and Florida State. He came close, once again, versus Clemson. Has struggled at times with recruiting, but his recruiting seems to improve with wins. I don't know if he would succeed in Knoxville or not; my gut says he's the type of guy who gets you to bowl games and 8- and 9- win seasons regularly and every now and then, gives you a 10-3 season. Not a terrible hire, but also not clear if he's the guy that can beat Nick Saban and win the SEC.
5. Lane Kiffin. Every fiber of my being hates considering this, but there's a legitimate case for Lane Kiffin as "G5 Coach of the Year." He's taken a Florida Atlantic program that was last in Conference USA and has moved them up to first place in a single season. The 2017 Lane Kiffin is worlds better than the 2008 Lane Kiffin. Difficult to see how he could come back to UT, however, after the train wreck he left behind. Id probably put him in Tier 2 otherwise.
6. Bo Pelini. Underrated as a coach. 67-27 at Nebraska in spite of never being able to get top-tier talent. Had Youngstown State in the FCS Championship Game within 2 years, but seems to have taken a step back this year. Pelini would likely deliver solid results, but he's not a top-notch recruiter and I suspect he's a guy that can consistently get you to mid-tier bowl games and an occasionally top-tier bowl, but who doesn't really have us competing for the SEC.
7. D.J. Durkin. Add another one into the "difficult to evaluate" category. There is a good case for Durkin; successful DC under Will Muschamp; also a position coach under Harbaugh at Stanford; he was also DC at Michigan for Harbaugh's first season. Problem is that it's very difficult to evaluate his performance as Head Coach given that he's at Maryland and he's basically in a division with 4 monsters right now (Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State). There are some very good coaches who would look like crap in that situation. Did a reasonable job last year and he's won a few that he wasn't supposed to. Not clear to me that he'd be a great coach in Knoxville, though.
8. Scott Satterfield. If Im being honest, I really dont know much about Scott Satterfield other than that hes had a reasonable amount of success coaching Appalachian State. He was 11-2 in 2015 and 10-3 last season. So hes a good coach. Im not sure if his App State success would translate to Tennessee.
We Shouldnt Even Consider
1. Mike MacIntyre. Good coach, but I don't see him succeeding in Knoxville. Disciple of David Cutcliffe. MacIntyres inability to recruit concerns me a lot. The SEC is a tough conference and coaching em up only goes so far when you have to compete against the Nick Saban juggernaut. Also, has not exactly been scandal-free in Boulder.
2. Paul Chryst. Stop me if you've heard this one before: Wisconsin coach decides to leave program he's having major success at for "greener pastures" (i.e. places w/ less control by Barry Alvarez); coach flops at his new job. So far as I can tell, the common denominator with Wisconsin's success is Barry Alvarez, not the head coach. It's weird, but how else do you explain the fact that it keeps happening? Worth noting that Chryst didn't exactly light it up at Pitt before he went to Wisconsin.
3. Les Miles. Why are people so enamored with Les Miles? Hes a good recruiter who hasnt had a legit offense in years and who makes questionable in-game decisions. How does that differ from what we have right now with Butch Jones? LSU is the best job in the nation in terms of talent available. If Miles couldnt succeed with an absolutely loaded LSU roster over the past several years, why would he succeed at Tennessee? Miles would be an absolutely atrocious hire. Ole Miss (which isnt going to have a lot of good options) should go after him; theres absolutely no reason for us to go down that route.
4. Mike Bobo. Several commentators have suggested Bobo as a great candidate to replace Jones. Cant say Im crazy about the idea. Bobo is underrated as an offensive mind, but hes been decisively mediocre as a head coach. He was 7-6 each of the past two seasons at Colorado State. Remember, he took over CSU from Jim McElwain, who went 10-3 there during his final season, so its not like he took on a tough rebuilding job. Bobo basically has zero wins of note. Played Alabama closer than we did this year but thats about the only thing you can really say. And besides, do we really want another Georgia guy as head coach? That worked out so well the first time. The only thing hes really stood out for thus far is recruiting, but we already have a guy who can recruit, and our guy had much better results in the mid-majors before coming to Knoxville.
5. Bobby Petrino. Its not only Petrinos scandal-plague past that bothers me. Its the fact that hes left almost every place hes been in crap-shape when hes departed. Hes not a program builder. Hes a guy who knows Xs and Os and overachieves while hes there, but doesnt really care about the long-term success of the program. The other issue: what has he done in the past several years that warrants consideration? Hes had one of the best QBs in college football, but has had rather average results at Louisville.
6. Jeremy Pruitt. I'd rather hire Lane Kiffin again than Pruitt. Pruitt was a toxic locker room presence while at Georgia and I also don't think it's a coincidence that he left Tallahassee after one season (in which he won a national title, and yet still made a lateral move to another school.) He's a great DC, but needs to be reigned in by someone like Saban. As a head coach, I think his toxic personality flaws would come to the forefront.
7. Greg Schiano. Known for turning Rutgers around. Also known as one of the worst NFL coaches in history. Was toxic for two years after leaving Tampa Bay. Also may have known about Jerry Sandusky's crimes while at Penn State and did nothing. Hes a good coach, but not a great coach. While he made Rutgers relevant, he mostly did so by convincing top New Jersey recruits to stay home at Rutgers rather than leaving for Penn State, Ohio State, Florida, etc, etc, etc. That doesnt seem to translate well to our situation, which is almost the exact opposite; we have loads of talent on the roster and excellent recruiting, but have had poor coaching. Schiano never proved himself to be an elite coach; won the games he was supposed to, and never won the Big East in spite of having better access to talent than many competitors. Mixed results as DC at Ohio State. Im not sold on Schiano at all.
Unrealistic Candidates
1. Bob Stoops. Great coach. Not coming out of retirement. End of discussion.
2. Mike Leach. Great coach. Offensive genius. But hes 56 years old and I think hed much rather coach out of the media limelight in Pullman, rather than put himself under the microscope in Knoxville.
3. Peyton Manning. Hes never coached. His real desire is to be a GM. He can make millions per year from endorsements and basically doing whatever he wants. Hes not a real candidate and we shouldnt hire him even if he were.
4. David Cutcliffe. Great coach. We should have hired him in 08 instead of Kiffin, but its too late now. Hes 63 years old and hes likely perfectly content to retire at Duke, where hell leave a long-term legacy, rather than spend the last years of his career under the pressure cooker in Knoxville.
5. Chris Petersen. Already at a Tier 1 job. Makes $4.2 million. Pacific Northwest guy. No reason to think he'd be interested in leaving his home region, especially now that he's built things up at Washington.
6. Mark Dantonio. Great coach, but he's 61 years old and not starting over in Knoxville.
7. Jimbo Fisher. In spite of the rumors on VN, I don't think he's a realistic candidate here. Huge buyout. No reason Florida State would want to get rid of him. FSU is a Tier 1 job and I don't see why he'd leave; and if he did want to leave, I'd almost view that as a red flag. However, in the extremely unlikely event that he were interested, then he'd certainly fall into the "Dream Hire" or "Tier 1" category.
8. Mark Richt. Probably the most comical of suggestions I've seen. He's competing for a national title at his alma mater which is a Tier 1 job. Richt was underrated at Georgia and I'm happy to see him have great success at Miami, but there's no chance in Hades that he's coming to Knoxville.
9. Mike Gundy. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to land Mike Gundy, but he's at his alma mater and he's not leaving. The only time he talks about other job openings is when he wants more money from T. Boone Pickens.
10. Jim Bob Cooter. Probably not realistic. I get the sense that Cooter is more interested in an NFL opening than college. Also, while hes a great offensive mind, hed be a high-risk hire. He has little experience coaching the college game, no real experience recruiting, and might have personal baggage that make him reluctant to be under the microscope in Knoxville. That said, difficult to deny that hes a very promising coach.
Let the Discussion Began
Who Am I Missing? Any others out there? I'll try to add and edit the list as more names come out. I'm sure I'm missing a few right now, as well.
Debate Away. I'm interested in hearing perspectives on all of these. I want to know as much as possible.
GBO!
The Landscape
There are no home run hires. Everyone wants the home run hire, but the unfortunate truth of the matter is that there are no candidates that are sure-fire successes here. There are some great and very promising candidates, but no home runs.
Its a tricky business. Pete Carroll was the 5th choice at USC; many USC fans hated the hire; Carroll turned out to be one of the most successful college coaches of all-time. Dabo Swinney was picked at Clemson after what was basically a failed search. Fans were disappointed. Swinney is now considered to be one of the 5 most successful coaches in the game. Meanwhile, plenty of moves that were considered great hires ended up being giant duds. Jim Mora at UCLA was considered a home run and he had early success, but hasnt been able to sustain it. Rich Rod at Michigan was considered close to a home run and that experiment ended after 3 years. (Let's also not forget that Nick Saban was Bama's 2nd choice behind RichRod.) Charlie Strong was considered one of most promising coaches out there and failed at Texas. Finding a great coach is a trickier business than most realize.
Fierce competition. Unfortunately, we will have tough competition this go around, with several high-profile openings out there: Florida, Texas A&M (likely), UCLA, Nebraska (likely), and Arkansas (likely). Florida and A&M, in particular, could challenge for candidates that will be interested in the Tennessee job, as well.
Job is more attractive than in 2010 and 2012. We have talent. The recruiting landscape in Tennessee continues to get better every year. The next coach will have some issues to correct, but he will not inherit the absolute trainwreck Butch did or the dismal situation Dooley walked into. This is the most attractive the Tennessee job has been since 2008 when we inexplicably handed the keys to Kiffin.
Beating Saban is a major challenge. Contrary to popular perception, the SEC is filled with very good coaches. Its just that the good coaches (Malzahn, Sumlin, McElwain, Mullen) have mostly beat each other up and none of them have been able to compete with the Nick Saban juggernaut. To make matters worse, it appears that Kirby Smart is now creating Alabama Junior at Georgia. There are plenty of good coaches out there; its going to take a great coach to win against Saban and Smart. And there simply arent a lot of great coaches out there.
Tennessee has major resources. The value that football brings to UT is immense. The university could afford to shell out $10 million annually for the right coach. But its also not a wise idea to just go throwing around money willy-nilly as we have seen that locking up coaches for huge contracts tends not to work out well when those coaches underperform significantly.
Coaching matters. Good coaching is often the difference between a middling program and a great one. We saw it at Alabama from the late 90s into the mid 00's. Similar deal with USC prior to Pete Carroll and Miami has been down for over a decade before finally "being back" this season with Mark Richt. We have a lot of talent on the roster, tons of resources, excellent facilities, one of the best stadiums in the country, but what we've lacked for a decade is great coaching.
The Candidates
Here are some of the candidates, ranked by my preference. Im sure Im missing some.
Top Tier
I'm defining a "top tier" hire as one that is relatively low-risk and high reward. I'd be very excited about any of the coaches in this "Top Tier" getting the job.
1. Justin Fuente. Long shot IMO. Gary Patterson protégé. I'd consider Fuente's turnaround job at Memphis to be one of the 5 most impressive jobs of this century. He turned a historically terrible Memphis program into a legit top 25 team. Turned VT around in 1 year and has been impressive in Year #2. One of the best offensive minds in the country. Unfortunately, I dont think hes leaving VT. Fuente took the VT job because of his strong relationship with AD Whit Babcock. He has a top 5 Defensive Coordinator in Bud Foster, who is probably staying until retirement. Expectations are lower. Path to conference title and playoff much easier in ACC than in the SEC. Already makes $3.2 million; while we could outbid VT, I suspect its more likely that hed get a nice raise and stay at VT. Still, if Im John Currie, I make the call, even if Im likely to get rejected.
2. Scott Frost. Excellent coach. Crushing it at UCF this year. Helfrichs OC at Oregon the 3 good years. One of the few coaches who has been a coordinator on both sides of the ball, as he was a DC at Northern Iowa before going to Oregon to coach on the offensive side. A list of mentors that is nearly insane (Tom Osborne, Bill Walsh, Chip Kelly, Jon Gruden, Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick). Out of the up-and-comers, the closest thing to a home run hire IMO. In spite of relatively short track record as HC, he's been extremely impressive in everything he's done. Biggest issue is that it will be tough to get him with both Florida and Nebraska likely having openings this season.
3. Dan Mullen. Hes done more with less at Miss State. 8 consecutive bowl games if you count this year (including an Orange Bowl appearance) at the toughest job in the SEC. Won 2 national titles as OC at Florida and turned Tim Tebow into a Heisman Trophy winner. Also molded Alex Smith into a top NFL prospect at Utah. Hes routinely coached up QBs, including current NFL QB Dak Prescott and 2-star QB Nick Fitzgerald. Could do wonders with someone like Jarrett Guarantano. Hes significantly improved recruiting at Miss State; which used to be ranked in the 40s and 50s recruiting wise, but has been boosted to the 20s and 30s under Mullen. Oh, and hes only 45, which is how old Nick Saban was during his 2nd season at Michigan State back when he was a Google coach Biggest issue with getting Mullen is that he already makes $4.5 million, which is about the same as Butch. How much more do you have to pay him to come to Knoxville? Is it worth the risk? Its not easy to recruit to Starkville. Hed get better players in Knoxville and would get to compete on a more level playing field. The case against Mullen is mostly that hes struggled against the top 20. However, hes never been close in talent to programs like Alabama, Auburn, LSU, and Texas A&M. He routinely has a schedule where he faces 5-6 teams with vastly superior talent, but he routinely has 8 - 10 win seasons. With better resources, Mullen could attract top talent, and conceivably compete for a national title at Tennessee. If he can win as much as he has at Miss State playing w/ a severe disadvantage, he can achieve even better results in Knoxville with some of the best resources in the nation.
4. Gary Patterson. Also a long-shot. Wouldve been a great hire back in 2008. Hes 57 now. Would he really want to start over? Hes taken TCU to heights never anticipated, but he has had a few down years recently (2013 and 2016). Nevertheless, undoubtedly one of the best coaches in the game.
5. Willie Taggart. Ill state for the record that I do not think Taggart is a realistic candidate, but there are some rumblings that things arent working out in Oregon. Id waive those off as fake news for now, but if it were true, Taggart did an excellent job turning around USF. He took over a 3-9 team and had them at 11-2 within 4 years. The USF team that is 9-1 this season was built by Taggart. Taggart also took a 0-12 Western Kentucky program and turned it into a winning program in 2 seasons. Hes a Jim Harbaugh protégé, who knows how to recruit south Florida and the Southeast. Oregon is a top-tier job, particularly with Nikes resources, but it was sort of a questionable fit given Taggarts background. My guess is that he stays at Oregon and hes having success there in 2-3 years, but if hes available, we absolutely should consider him.
6. Brent Venables. One of the best DCs in the nation. A top-notch recruiter. Hes a major reason behind Clemsons recent success. His resume is basically a dream in terms of mentors: Bill Snyder, Bob Stoops, Dabo Swinney. He was DC for two different national championship teams. Even though hes a defensive guy, he has a lot of connections, so its reasonable to believe he could fix the offense as well. The downsides are that he has no head coaching experience and given that hes not an offensive guru, even if he made a great OC hire, its probably going to take a few years to get the offense fixed.
Second Tier
I define a "2nd tier hire" as one with high upside, but significant risks. Risk, in many cases, comes from limited track records as a college coach, or no experience as head coach, or experience that may not translate. Nevertheless, I'd be optimistic about any of the coaches in the 2nd tier.
1. Jon Gruden. I will receive a lot of hate for this, but even assuming Gruden wants to walk away from a $6.5 million year job where he only has to work one day a week, Gruden is 2nd tier hire IMHO. Not that it matters, because I dont think hed consider a college opening; hes an NFL guy. Gruden was an above-average NFL coach who is brilliant at Xs and Os, but the number of coaches who have made a successful NFL to college transition is pretty limited. Pete Carroll is one of the few success stories and the failures include Jim Mora, Mike Sherman, Bill Callahan, and Dave Wannstadt. In the college game, player development is vastly more important than Xs and Os and Grudens biggest weakness in the NFL was player development. On the plus side, Grudens name recognition would almost certainly result in top 5 recruiting classes. I also think Grudens personality works better in college than some of the other failures on the NFL-to-college list. Perhaps Gruden could also figure out staff hires that would accommodate for his own weaknesses. Im not against Gruden by any stretch of the imagination; just view him as a high-risk / high-reward hire. Sure he could be very successful, but unlike the guys in my 1st Tier, I could also see a scenario where Gruden has 8-5 type seasons regularly and fares about as well as Jim Mora did at UCLA. Also worth noting that Bill Callahan was Jon Grudens OC at Oakland and Callahan failed miserably as Head Coach at Nebraska primarily because his offense was too complex for college. That concerns me a bit.
2. Tee Martin. Very underrated IMO. Great recruiter. Very good OC. Hes never been a head coach before, and Tennessee isnt exactly the easiest job to start with, but he has been at USC for several seasons, so he knows what its like to be in the pressure cooker. I wouldnt quite put him on the level as Venables in terms of success, but hes been very good. Hed be a gamble, but a reasonable one IMO if no top-tier candidate pans out. Also, for those clamoring for Lane Kiffin, Martin basically brings a Lane Kiffin style offense without Lane Kiffin style baggage and immaturity. The other big benefit with Martin; hes a Wide Receiver and Quarterback coach and those are our two biggest problem areas right now.
3. P.J. Fleck. May or may not be realistic given that he's only been at Minnesota for less than a season. Fleck has an excellent track record in a very short period of time and hes very young at age 36. He's also a former NFL Wide Receiver, which is great, because Wide Receiver is the position that is in greatest need of "fixing" at UT. His buyout appears rather manageable. Biggest question mark: can he recruit the South? He's been a Midwestern guy for his entire coaching career. Not quite first tier to me because his track record just isnt long enough, but very promising thus far. Id mostly ignore his results at Minnesota, as its rare for coaches to immediately have a program running well in Year 1.
4. Joe Moorhead. Very underrated. Not a well-known name, but he's been the OC at Penn State the past two seasons. Penn States offense took off after he took over and hes put up high point totals against some very good defenses. Id consider him among the 5 best OCs in the nation. Also a former Head Coach at Fordham, who took over a 1-10 team and turned them into a playoff team within 2 seasons; made the FCS playoffs his last 3 seasons. Hes the anti-Butch; he took over a Fordham program with few resources and major disadvantages and had to innovate his way to success. Moorhead could be a Jim Tressel diamond in the rough type that people are ignoring largely because a good chunk of his career was spent in FCS. Right now, Id consider Moorhead to be one of the best out of the realistic candidates. Biggest question mark for me is recruiting. Moorhead has only been at a big time program (Penn State) for two years and I dont see a lot of evidence that hes a top-notch recruiter. If it werent for the question marks on recruiting, Id consider Moorhead 1st Tier.
5. Matt Campbell. Iowa State coach that is making some noise in only his 2nd season. Iowa State is arguably one of the toughest jobs in the Big 12 and Campbell is doing very well. Big upset win over a top 5 Oklahoma team on the road. Very good track record at Toledo before I State. Nevertheless, track record is pretty short. Huge buyout makes it unlikely that he will be considered seriously.
6. Mike Norvell. Great offensive mind. Limited track record. Hes been successful in his 2 years at Memphis, but Justin Fuente built the program up before he got there. Nevertheless, his offenses have been very impressive. Hed be an upgrade over Butch Jones on the offensive end, at the very least. While Id rather have one of the names above him on this list, I wouldnt be disappointed with Norvell. At a minimum, hed be an improvement over Butch Jones. Id consider Norvell a realistic worst case scenario except that weve had enough bad hires that I realize that ADs are completely capable in coming up with outside the box awful hires (see Derek Dooley).
7. Chad Morris. Very accomplished as the former OC at Clemson under Dabo Swinney. He's slowly been rebuilding at SMU where he took over a 1-11 program. He's yet to turn the corner at SMU, but he has them competitive again at 6-4 with close games versus UCF and Navy. Morris could be a very good hire, but tough to evaluate him based on the mess he took over at SMU.
8. Jeff Brohm. On one hand, Brohms record is really not that different from Butch Jones before he got here. On the other hand, Brohm is actually one of the most well-respected offensive minds in the game. Hes basically Bobby Petrino w/o the baggage of Bobby Petrino. Hes known as an excellent QB coach and we desperately need that. Though, we really have no idea how hed do with recruiting or anything like that. Some have concerns that hed bolt for Louisville (his alma mater) if the job came open, but if he took the Tennessee job, I suspect he has ambitions to win a national title and he realizes that Tennessee is a better place for that than Louisville.
9. Chip Kelly. Very impressive record at Oregon (46-7) with 4 BCS bowl appearances. On paper, he looks like a dream candidate. In reality, Im very skeptical that he can achieve those results again. Biggest problem is that NFL defenses figured him out within a few years to the point that the defenses were literally calling out the plays before they happened. His last year in Philly and San Fran were disasters. Kellys gimmick was the Hurry-Up No-Huddle offense, but this offense requires simplification, and defenses have increasingly adapted to it. Its easy to say guys like Saban and Spurrier went to the NFL, failed and then went back to college to major success, and assume that applies to Kelly as well. But Saban is a master recruiter and organization guy and Kelly hasnt shown the same ability to adapt his offense that Spurrier has. Kelly notoriously hates boosters and recruiting, a bad combination in Knoxville. I question whether hed fit in at Tennessee and could see him failing in the same way that RichRod did in Ann Arbor. Not saying he couldnt change his offense and have huge success; I just see him as a much bigger risk than most. If we could get him on the cheap for $3 million, Id elevate him to first tier and say we should consider the risk. However, were probably going to have to pay him $6 million plus to lure him here and then he could flop big-time and were stuck in a worse situation than we were before. I just see him as too big of a risk given his likely salary demands.
Third Tier
My "3rd tier" candidates are mostly "good coaches" who I don't think can become elite coaches at Tennessee, or who have other issues (the special case of Lane Kiffin). I admit I would be disappointed if we hired any of the coaches on this list, but I could see a few of them having potential to work out.
1. Charlie Strong. Tough to figure him out. Had great success at Louisville. Bombed at Texas. Doing very well with Willie Taggarts players at USF. Hes a good coach and DC; just tough to explain why he fared so poorly at Texas, but has done well literally everywhere else hes been.
2. Neal Brown. Impressive win against LSU. Doing pretty well at Troy. That said, very short track record and he gets a lot of wins every season beating up on some absolutely awful teams. Not clear to me if his success would translate to the SEC.
3. Kevin Sumlin. A very good and underrated coach, but not elite. Unfortunately, the SEC West got the best of him, but I could see him being very successful somewhere --- just not here. If he failed against Bama at Texas A&M, then hes likely to fail in Knoxville as well. I kind hope to see him get a second chance at somewhere like UCLA or maybe a Big 12 job in the future.
4. Dave Doeren. Like Charlie Strong, tough to figure out. He's a good coach, but not clear if he can be a "great coach." Very impressively led Northern Illinois to the Orange Bowl back in 2012. He's had flashes of brilliance at NC State, but has never truly broken through. 8-5, 7-6, and 7-6 his past three seasons, with a few near-wins against power programs. Doeren is 7-3 this season with a win over Louisville and Florida State. He came close, once again, versus Clemson. Has struggled at times with recruiting, but his recruiting seems to improve with wins. I don't know if he would succeed in Knoxville or not; my gut says he's the type of guy who gets you to bowl games and 8- and 9- win seasons regularly and every now and then, gives you a 10-3 season. Not a terrible hire, but also not clear if he's the guy that can beat Nick Saban and win the SEC.
5. Lane Kiffin. Every fiber of my being hates considering this, but there's a legitimate case for Lane Kiffin as "G5 Coach of the Year." He's taken a Florida Atlantic program that was last in Conference USA and has moved them up to first place in a single season. The 2017 Lane Kiffin is worlds better than the 2008 Lane Kiffin. Difficult to see how he could come back to UT, however, after the train wreck he left behind. Id probably put him in Tier 2 otherwise.
6. Bo Pelini. Underrated as a coach. 67-27 at Nebraska in spite of never being able to get top-tier talent. Had Youngstown State in the FCS Championship Game within 2 years, but seems to have taken a step back this year. Pelini would likely deliver solid results, but he's not a top-notch recruiter and I suspect he's a guy that can consistently get you to mid-tier bowl games and an occasionally top-tier bowl, but who doesn't really have us competing for the SEC.
7. D.J. Durkin. Add another one into the "difficult to evaluate" category. There is a good case for Durkin; successful DC under Will Muschamp; also a position coach under Harbaugh at Stanford; he was also DC at Michigan for Harbaugh's first season. Problem is that it's very difficult to evaluate his performance as Head Coach given that he's at Maryland and he's basically in a division with 4 monsters right now (Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State). There are some very good coaches who would look like crap in that situation. Did a reasonable job last year and he's won a few that he wasn't supposed to. Not clear to me that he'd be a great coach in Knoxville, though.
8. Scott Satterfield. If Im being honest, I really dont know much about Scott Satterfield other than that hes had a reasonable amount of success coaching Appalachian State. He was 11-2 in 2015 and 10-3 last season. So hes a good coach. Im not sure if his App State success would translate to Tennessee.
We Shouldnt Even Consider
1. Mike MacIntyre. Good coach, but I don't see him succeeding in Knoxville. Disciple of David Cutcliffe. MacIntyres inability to recruit concerns me a lot. The SEC is a tough conference and coaching em up only goes so far when you have to compete against the Nick Saban juggernaut. Also, has not exactly been scandal-free in Boulder.
2. Paul Chryst. Stop me if you've heard this one before: Wisconsin coach decides to leave program he's having major success at for "greener pastures" (i.e. places w/ less control by Barry Alvarez); coach flops at his new job. So far as I can tell, the common denominator with Wisconsin's success is Barry Alvarez, not the head coach. It's weird, but how else do you explain the fact that it keeps happening? Worth noting that Chryst didn't exactly light it up at Pitt before he went to Wisconsin.
3. Les Miles. Why are people so enamored with Les Miles? Hes a good recruiter who hasnt had a legit offense in years and who makes questionable in-game decisions. How does that differ from what we have right now with Butch Jones? LSU is the best job in the nation in terms of talent available. If Miles couldnt succeed with an absolutely loaded LSU roster over the past several years, why would he succeed at Tennessee? Miles would be an absolutely atrocious hire. Ole Miss (which isnt going to have a lot of good options) should go after him; theres absolutely no reason for us to go down that route.
4. Mike Bobo. Several commentators have suggested Bobo as a great candidate to replace Jones. Cant say Im crazy about the idea. Bobo is underrated as an offensive mind, but hes been decisively mediocre as a head coach. He was 7-6 each of the past two seasons at Colorado State. Remember, he took over CSU from Jim McElwain, who went 10-3 there during his final season, so its not like he took on a tough rebuilding job. Bobo basically has zero wins of note. Played Alabama closer than we did this year but thats about the only thing you can really say. And besides, do we really want another Georgia guy as head coach? That worked out so well the first time. The only thing hes really stood out for thus far is recruiting, but we already have a guy who can recruit, and our guy had much better results in the mid-majors before coming to Knoxville.
5. Bobby Petrino. Its not only Petrinos scandal-plague past that bothers me. Its the fact that hes left almost every place hes been in crap-shape when hes departed. Hes not a program builder. Hes a guy who knows Xs and Os and overachieves while hes there, but doesnt really care about the long-term success of the program. The other issue: what has he done in the past several years that warrants consideration? Hes had one of the best QBs in college football, but has had rather average results at Louisville.
6. Jeremy Pruitt. I'd rather hire Lane Kiffin again than Pruitt. Pruitt was a toxic locker room presence while at Georgia and I also don't think it's a coincidence that he left Tallahassee after one season (in which he won a national title, and yet still made a lateral move to another school.) He's a great DC, but needs to be reigned in by someone like Saban. As a head coach, I think his toxic personality flaws would come to the forefront.
7. Greg Schiano. Known for turning Rutgers around. Also known as one of the worst NFL coaches in history. Was toxic for two years after leaving Tampa Bay. Also may have known about Jerry Sandusky's crimes while at Penn State and did nothing. Hes a good coach, but not a great coach. While he made Rutgers relevant, he mostly did so by convincing top New Jersey recruits to stay home at Rutgers rather than leaving for Penn State, Ohio State, Florida, etc, etc, etc. That doesnt seem to translate well to our situation, which is almost the exact opposite; we have loads of talent on the roster and excellent recruiting, but have had poor coaching. Schiano never proved himself to be an elite coach; won the games he was supposed to, and never won the Big East in spite of having better access to talent than many competitors. Mixed results as DC at Ohio State. Im not sold on Schiano at all.
Unrealistic Candidates
1. Bob Stoops. Great coach. Not coming out of retirement. End of discussion.
2. Mike Leach. Great coach. Offensive genius. But hes 56 years old and I think hed much rather coach out of the media limelight in Pullman, rather than put himself under the microscope in Knoxville.
3. Peyton Manning. Hes never coached. His real desire is to be a GM. He can make millions per year from endorsements and basically doing whatever he wants. Hes not a real candidate and we shouldnt hire him even if he were.
4. David Cutcliffe. Great coach. We should have hired him in 08 instead of Kiffin, but its too late now. Hes 63 years old and hes likely perfectly content to retire at Duke, where hell leave a long-term legacy, rather than spend the last years of his career under the pressure cooker in Knoxville.
5. Chris Petersen. Already at a Tier 1 job. Makes $4.2 million. Pacific Northwest guy. No reason to think he'd be interested in leaving his home region, especially now that he's built things up at Washington.
6. Mark Dantonio. Great coach, but he's 61 years old and not starting over in Knoxville.
7. Jimbo Fisher. In spite of the rumors on VN, I don't think he's a realistic candidate here. Huge buyout. No reason Florida State would want to get rid of him. FSU is a Tier 1 job and I don't see why he'd leave; and if he did want to leave, I'd almost view that as a red flag. However, in the extremely unlikely event that he were interested, then he'd certainly fall into the "Dream Hire" or "Tier 1" category.
8. Mark Richt. Probably the most comical of suggestions I've seen. He's competing for a national title at his alma mater which is a Tier 1 job. Richt was underrated at Georgia and I'm happy to see him have great success at Miami, but there's no chance in Hades that he's coming to Knoxville.
9. Mike Gundy. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to land Mike Gundy, but he's at his alma mater and he's not leaving. The only time he talks about other job openings is when he wants more money from T. Boone Pickens.
10. Jim Bob Cooter. Probably not realistic. I get the sense that Cooter is more interested in an NFL opening than college. Also, while hes a great offensive mind, hed be a high-risk hire. He has little experience coaching the college game, no real experience recruiting, and might have personal baggage that make him reluctant to be under the microscope in Knoxville. That said, difficult to deny that hes a very promising coach.
Let the Discussion Began
Who Am I Missing? Any others out there? I'll try to add and edit the list as more names come out. I'm sure I'm missing a few right now, as well.
Debate Away. I'm interested in hearing perspectives on all of these. I want to know as much as possible.
GBO!
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