My thinking is that Butch is on the watchlist because if he has a really good season that proves he did a great coaching job. I don't think this is so much a prediction of coaches doing a great job but possibly a list of coaches that have to overcome a lot to have a great season.
Edit: Having looked at the list again my logic does not seem to hold for some coaches on this list. I don't know where they are coming from with this.
Edit: Having looked at the list again my logic does not seem to hold for some coaches on this list. I don't know where they are coming from with this.