ESPN rates each TN game by chance to win:

#51
#51
nlovu said:
USC - 46.8%
Missouri - 66.2
Georgia - 9.7
KY - 48.1
ALA - 7.0
Ark - 61.1
Tex A&M - 31.2
AUB - 12.1
Vandy - 80.6
FL - 20.0

ESPN FPI predicts Tennessee's 2020 schedule
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I'm surprised that we are favored on the road by 3 against USCe with a 46.8% chance of winning. Home field is usually worth about 3 points, too, so Vegas thinks we are probably around a 6 point favorite on a neutral field. I'll side with Vegas on this one. They're right more than they're wrong.

Surprised that UK is given the slight odds over us at home in that matchup, as well. I figured we'd have the slight odds in that one.
 
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#52
#52
So ESPN thinks we'll go 3-7?

I'm not making any grand predictions for this season, but these odds seem pretty crazy. They are basically giving us no shot against Auburn and think we should be underdogs at home versus a Kentucky team that lost its 2 best players, one of which accounted for nearly half of Kentucky's offensive production last season.
 
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#53
#53
USC - 55%
Missouri - 75%
Georgia - 35%
KY - 65%
ALA - 15%
Ark - 70%
Tex A&M - 50%
AUB - 35%
Vandy - 90%
FL - 50%

Personally, assuming everyone is on equal footing with regard to CV impact I think we finish 7-3; but this says either 5-5 or 6-4. I think 6-4 or better continues the programs momentum.
 
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#54
#54
We shouldn't let any results of this season define anything, good or bad. This is not a normal season, we didn't have a normal off-season, a bunch of players have and will continue to miss time due to covid quarantine protocols. Just be happy we have football to watch.
 
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#55
#55
These Football Power Index rankings always leaving me scratching my head. As others have said, how is it we have a 48% chance to beat USCe when the betting lines are 3 to 6 pts in our favor?
Shouldn't it be flipped on the other side of 50 and be like 52% to win?

Other than the FPI is a completely statistical, computer generated number and the betting lines are based on how many people are betting one team to win over another, I'm lost on the logic...
 
#56
#56
I think having a senior starting QB is going to be huge this year with so many QB replacements happening at other programs.
 
#57
#57
knox-townVOL said:
It’s funny I used to tune into ESPN like crazy to hear talk about Tennessee and what their predictions are for how good we will be and what our strengths/weaknesses will look like.

Those days are long past now. I realized on any given year I typically know more about the Vols than any show host working for ESPN lol.
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Years ago I remember hearing them say something that completely contradicted everything I had read in local media. This is back when we were still relevant in national picture. That’s when I realized ESPN doesn’t know much about any team really. They rely on their interns to dig up a few quick talking points to fill the air. Much beginning of the end for me.
 
#60
#60
No love for the Vols from ESPN. KY is a laugh at 48%. That is the safest bet in college football. We own them. KY moves to 100% when you factor in the historical record.
 
#63
#63
burntorangeVOLffle said:
Years ago I remember hearing them say something that completely contradicted everything I had read in local media. This is back when we were still relevant in national picture. That’s when I realized ESPN doesn’t know much about any team really. They rely on their interns to dig up a few quick talking points to fill the air. Much beginning of the end for me.
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I specifically remember going into the 2014 season, we were looking really good in skill positions with Hurd/Malone coming in, Marquez North at WR, Ethan Wolf at TE, etc. The problem was we were essentially replacing both lines.

On an SEC preview on ESPN, one of the analysts (black guy, can’t remember his name, Kevin something I think) said “I like how Tennessee is looking this year. Not much in the skill positions, but those offensive and defensive lines are FOR REAL”

I think that was when I realized they don’t actually know what they are talking about lol. ESPN is like the casual fan, they know everything about the star players and nothing about anyone else.
 
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#64
#64
PEPPERJAX said:
Curious as to why ESPN favors SC in this game. I know last year is last year, but UT absolutely destroyed SCAR in 2019. UT’s defense did not allow a single point in the second half. Where are the significant upgrades to SCAR’s roster giving them the edge? They have home field, but crowd noise will not be a factor at all.
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Probably because Pruitt has yet to field an SEC-ready team in the first game of the season, and they are hedging their bets that Covid will have exacerbated that issue; this is his chance to change that narrative.
 
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#65
#65
BeardedVol said:
Probably because Pruitt has yet to field an SEC-ready team in the first game of the season, and they are hedging their bets that Covid will have exacerbated that issue; this is his chance to change that narrative.
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That is a fair point. It is beyond time to come out ready and punch someone in the mouth.
 
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#67
#67
Volfan574 said:
Here's what I think. Tex A&M game decides if we are 5-5 or 6-4.

USC 55% (momentum from last year)
Mizz 70% (beat Mizz last year at Mizz)
GA 30% (I think we scare the bulldogs but lose)
Ky 65% (why is KY always suppose to be good going into the season? )
ALA 15% ( Butch smokes another cigar)
ARK 75% (should be comfortable game)
Tex AM 50% (close game)
AUB 40% (Bo is a little better than our QB's)
Van 85% (Eric Gray has more fun)
FL 30% (no comment)
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This is based almost solely on a QB calculation. Because of the Spring camp cancellation and the chaos of a COVID Fall camp, we have not had the opportunity to get a new QB ready to supplant JG. So until he proves himself capable of being a consistently capable SEC QB - or even a game a manger - they are rightly saying you are what you are until proven otherwise.
 
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#68
#68
tnutater said:
I expect a close low scoring very sloppy game.
Our offense sucks.
Their offense sucks.
They almost have a defense.
We almost have a defense.
Their coach is playing for his job.(not this year, but the fire under his seat will be lit.)
Our coach is trying to prove he can get a team ready to start a season.
Their QB grad transferred in with Bobo.
Our QB signed with the hornblower.
As the General used to say "The team that makes the fewest mistakes wins"
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Yes neither team is very good.
 
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#69
#69
IndianaVol said:
These Football Power Index rankings always leaving me scratching my head. As others have said, how is it we have a 48% chance to beat USCe when the betting lines are 3 to 6 pts in our favor?
Shouldn't it be flipped on the other side of 50 and be like 52% to win?

Other than the FPI is a completely statistical, computer generated number and the betting lines are based on how many people are betting one team to win over another, I'm lost on the logic...
Click to expand...

A 48% chance to win is basically a 50/50 toss up. Being a 3 point favorite is basically saying the teams are even and the game will be decided by a missed FG, a busted coverage, a bad punt, or a WR’s toe that just barely touches down inbounds. Both metrics are saying the same thing.
 
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#70
#70
Those win chances predict a season total of about 4 wins.
(closer to 3.8 but margin of error doesn't really justify including a decimal)

I'm not agreeing or anything, just running the numbers.
 
#73
#73
Neyland Law Vol said:
3 wins according to ESPN. Look i am hoping for 6-4. Let's keep this in mind if TN ends up at 5-5. Don't want to hear that the coaches have to go, when we have a 5 win season given these ESPN predictions. When you play 5 teams ranked in the top 15, and then have 2 more toss up games (UK and USC jr) 5-5 is a good season.
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For first time under Pruitt we have chance of being like Barnes team 3 years ago and come out of blue to upset the apple cart. Could be same old story but we could just as likely make things very interesting in the east.
 
#75
#75
PEPPERJAX said:
Curious as to why ESPN favors SC in this game. I know last year is last year, but UT absolutely destroyed SCAR in 2019. UT’s defense did not allow a single point in the second half. Where are the significant upgrades to SCAR’s roster giving them the edge? They have home field, but crowd noise will not be a factor at all.
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Are the colleges piping crowd noise like the NFL is doing. Laughable IMO.
 
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