Latest Marvin West column

[JPL]

Agree with your basic argument but why do you think a win over UF should be considered an upset this fall? Maybe even a win over UGA at home?

All three teams have roster questions that are answered by "potentially good players".

the odds makers have TN favored (and by just 1pt) in only 1 of the 4 I listed. We are starting a new QB. With GA starting an experienced QB & proven RBs they will be tough to stop.

..."According to the Golden Nugget sportsbook, Tennessee football is a 24.5 underdog to the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Although that could make sense after the Vols lost to them 49-10 at home last year and look to be worse this year, according to many analysts, it’s still a major level of disrespect to expect such a blowout every year in a rivalry game like this one.

But funny enough, that’s not even the craziest line.

The craziest one is the Florida Gators being a nine and a half point favorite over the Vols. How to the oddsmakers figure that?

Last year, Tennessee football dominated Florida, and the Gators squeaked out one point victories each of the two years before that.

In no way should those instances translate to the Vols losing to the Gators by nearly 10 points this year, even if it is in The Swamp.

The book does favor the Vols over Georgia Bulldogs by one point at home, which is indeed a toss-up game.

And the other game they picked regarding Tennessee football is their game against the LSU Tigers, where they are a seven and a half point underdog at home.

That may be a little high as well, but it’s still not as bad as the Vols being a nine and a half point underdog to Florida..."

What’s clear in all of this, though, is that this year it’s Tennessee football against the world. And hey, maybe that’ll be a motivational factor.

GO VOLS!!!

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Big part of the problem in this whole discussion of what's an "upset" is the nature of being a fan.

We tend to think very highly of our team. Which means we naturally tend to think our guys are as good as, or better than, just about everyone else (at least, everyone else not named Bama).

So a coach under fire, as Butch is in Marvin's article, gets little to no credit for beating teams that Vegas says we're the underdog to (LSU and Florida, for instance), but get all kinds of hell for not beating any team at our level or below (this year, that apparently includes LSU, Florida, and Georgia, as well as everyone else not named Bama).

Don't get me wrong, I fall for this same trap. I think of LSU, Florida, and Georgia all as peer competitors right now.

But I'm reasonable enough to recognize this: with peer competition, you're not always going to win. If you win more than half the time, you're doing better than your peers.

So yeah, we gotta kinda get past being fans and seeing our guys as quasi-invincible (except against Bama).

A win against Florida in the Swamp this year will be an 'upset'. A win against LSU in November will, at least for now and according to Vegas, be an 'upset.'. When we can't trust our fandom to be objective, we can always fall back on Vegas. They're not predicting games, as many will point out, but they're the closest thing to 'objective' that exists in the world today.

 

[VolunteerHillbilly]

8-4 isn't a successful coach imho, but I was simply referring to Butch's previous stops where he had won conference titles. Winning a conference title defines a successful coach imho.

That's fair. Looking back at some 2008 threads I was reminded that many of us saw Brian Kelley as preferable to Kiffin for that very reason.

 

[jakez4ut]

Big part of the problem in this whole discussion of what's an "upset" is the nature of being a fan.

We tend to think very highly of our team. Which means we naturally tend to think our guys are as good as, or better than, just about everyone else (at least, everyone else not named Bama).

So a coach under fire, as Butch is in Marvin's article, gets little to no credit for beating teams that Vegas says we're the underdog to (LSU and Florida, for instance), but get all kinds of hell for not beating any team at our level or below (this year, that apparently includes LSU, Florida, and Georgia, as well as everyone else not named Bama).

Don't get me wrong, I fall for this same trap. I think of LSU, Florida, and Georgia all as peer competitors right now.

But I'm reasonable enough to recognize this: with peer competition, you're not always going to win. If you win more than half the time, you're doing better than your peers.

So yeah, we gotta kinda get past being fans and seeing our guys as quasi-invincible (except against Bama).

A win against Florida in the Swamp this year will be an 'upset'. A win against LSU in November will, at least for now and according to Vegas, be an 'upset.'. When we can't trust our fandom to be objective, we can always fall back on Vegas. They're not predicting games, as many will point out, but they're the closest thing to 'objective' that exists in the world today.

i agree with all of this except the vegas angle. their job is simply to try spread the money around so they don't lose. otherwise, there's no reason to open a big line in June on the TN/FL game, except to get money on TN side. that line will shrink, money will move to the FL side.

 

[Behr]

Im pretty sure you re late with that idea.

I'm 99.9999999% you are right.

 

[butchna]

the odds makers have TN favored (and by just 1pt) in only 1 of the 4 I listed. We are starting a new QB. With GA starting an experienced QB & proven RBs they will be tough to stop.

..."According to the Golden Nugget sportsbook, Tennessee football is a 24.5 underdog to the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Although that could make sense after the Vols lost to them 49-10 at home last year and look to be worse this year, according to many analysts, it’s still a major level of disrespect to expect such a blowout every year in a rivalry game like this one.

But funny enough, that’s not even the craziest line.

The craziest one is the Florida Gators being a nine and a half point favorite over the Vols. How to the oddsmakers figure that?

Last year, Tennessee football dominated Florida, and the Gators squeaked out one point victories each of the two years before that.

In no way should those instances translate to the Vols losing to the Gators by nearly 10 points this year, even if it is in The Swamp.

The book does favor the Vols over Georgia Bulldogs by one point at home, which is indeed a toss-up game.

And the other game they picked regarding Tennessee football is their game against the LSU Tigers, where they are a seven and a half point underdog at home.

That may be a little high as well, but it’s still not as bad as the Vols being a nine and a half point underdog to Florida..."

What’s clear in all of this, though, is that this year it’s Tennessee football against the world. And hey, maybe that’ll be a motivational factor.

GO VOLS!!!

Florida line would change if Michigan runs them and we're undefeated. Prolly still be an underdog...just not the 9 point version.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

i agree with all of this except the vegas angle. their job is simply to try spread the money around so they don't lose. otherwise, there's no reason to open a big line in June on the TN/FL game, except to get money on TN side. that line will shrink, money will move to the FL side.

Vegas isn't perfect as an objective lens, agreed. But can you name any source that is MORE useful for its objectivity?

I can't.

So, Vegas it is, when you really need to take off the orange sunglasses and know what should be called an 'upset' and what not.

 

[jakez4ut]

Florida line would change if Michigan runs them and we're undefeated. Prolly still be an underdog...just not the 9 point version.

agreed, it's fluid, and other games prior to that will affect where that lines ends up ultimately, but if we're talking about betting, and we are, then i'd bet that line shrinks a bit, and money flows over to the FL side.

if we lose to GT, and FL beats Michigan, it grows, and money flows to the FL side....

the only scenario i see where vegas has a chance at losing is if we come out and kinda dominate GT, and Florida gets shellacked by Michigan and they have to move it so tight, or TN as a favorite, to get the money back on FL's side.

 

[jakez4ut]

Vegas isn't perfect as an objective lens, agreed. But can you name any source that is MORE useful for its objectivity?

I can't.

So, Vegas it is, when you really need to take off the orange sunglasses and know what should be called an 'upset' and what not.

objective? not with fans, no. i think as we get closer to the game, and analysts start breaking the game down and looking at match-ups, you get a mostly fair representation of who should win, and why....depending on what you listen to or watch....we're a ways off from that though.

i get what you're saying, and if that's the definition you're going to go with, then yeah, it's an "upset". but vegas isn't trying to predict the actual winner. nor do they care. if FL wins by 7, and the line stays 9.5, they lose, that's all they care about.

they're just trying to predict where, and at what margin, Joe American will put down his $100.

 

[BeecherVol]

i agree with all of this except the vegas angle. their job is simply to try spread the money around so they don't lose. otherwise, there's no reason to open a big line in June on the TN/FL game, except to get money on TN side. that line will shrink, money will move to the FL side.

Im guessing 3 or less by game week.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I'm simply saying there's no BETTER objective source. We're certainly not objective, as fans. We need some place we can turn.

Even with all the caveats we always toss out about what Vegas are really doing, rather than predicting outcomes, I can't name a BETTER objective alternative. Can you?

So, Vegas it is.

 

[jakez4ut]

Im guessing 3 or less by game week.

that's my guess as well. there's a few things that could change that, but i think, as does vegas probably, those are unlikely scenarios.

 

[jakez4ut]

I'm simply saying there's no BETTER objective source. We're certainly not objective, as fans. We need some place we can turn.

Even with all the caveats we always toss out about what Vegas are really doing, rather than predicting outcomes, I can't name a BETTER objective alternative. Can you?

So, Vegas it is.

for you, yes. i just don't put a lot of stock in to it, understanding what the real purpose of it is.

if the line shrinks to a 1-3 point spread in FL's favor, and we win, is it really an upset? if the current TN 1 pt line with TN the favorite against GA holds and GA wins, is that an upset?

on strict definition by your point of view, yes. in the true sense of what those lines actually represent...no, they aren't.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

for you, yes. i just don't put a lot of stock in to it, understanding what the real purpose of it is.

if the line shrinks to a 1-3 point spread in FL's favor, and we win, is it really an upset? if the current TN 1 pt line with TN the favorite against GA holds and GA wins, is that an upset?

on strict definition by your point of view, yes. in the true sense of what those lines actually represent...no, they aren't.

Jake, until you name another neutral source that is objective and gets more to the point, Vegas is all we got.

You got anything else? Anything better?

If not, you're just saying that your admittedly-skewed point of view as a fan is more valid than Vegas. Which simply is never gonna sell, to anyone outside your own fan base.

 

[Behr]

Do I need to go back and read the whole thread to figure out what the two of you are actually arguing?

 

[BeecherVol]

objective? not with fans, no. i think as we get closer to the game, and analysts start breaking the game down and looking at match-ups, you get a mostly fair representation of who should win, and why....depending on what you listen to or watch....we're a ways off from that though.

i get what you're saying, and if that's the definition you're going to go with, then yeah, it's an "upset". but vegas isn't trying to predict the actual winner. nor do they care. if FL wins by 7, and the line stays 9.5, they lose, that's all they care about.

they're just trying to predict where, and at what margin, Joe American will put down his $100.

Is that considered a moral "upset"?

Im still trying to understand why that term is that important in regards to Vegas defining it, unless you back the wrong horse.

 

[BeecherVol]

Do I need to go back and read the whole thread to figure out what the two of you are actually arguing?

I got 10$ it takes you less than 2 mins.

1...2...3.... Go!

 

[jakez4ut]

Jake, until you name another neutral source that is objective and gets more to the point, Vegas is all we got.

You got anything else? Anything better?

If not, you're just saying that your admittedly-skewed point of view as a fan is more valid than Vegas. Which simply is never gonna sell, to anyone outside your own fan base.

pot, kettle i guess....i'm just stating it for what it is. what i've said about the intent of the line setting isn't wrong, so i'm not skewing my view at all really. i've already agreed with you, in merit.... in June/July, no, no one is talking about that game and the match ups in regards to how they will affect who should win that game.

if you want me to say "you're right"...then, ok, you're right. it still doesn't change what these lines' purpose really is.

 

[jakez4ut]

Is that considered a moral "upset"?

Im still trying to understand why that term is that important in regards to Vegas defining it, unless you back the wrong horse.

:thumbsup: lol: it is called "upset" for a reason i guess.

i guess i am wrong.

 

[jakez4ut]

Do I need to go back and read the whole thread to figure out what the two of you are actually arguing?

nah. we're good. he's right.

 

[Behr]

nah. we're good. he's right.

Cool. I was trying to figure out if it needed to be 4 on one or 2 on 3.

 

[Behr]

I got 10$ it takes you less than 2 mins.

1...2...3.... Go!

Got PayPal?

 

[jakez4ut]

Cool. I was trying to figure out if it needed to be 4 on one or 2 on 3.

nah, really wasn't trying for a repeat of yesterday....though it's probably hard to tell that at this point.

but that's the back and forth i like with JP....don't have to always agree, and hell, apparently we can't "kinda" agree either...lol:

 

[VFL-82-JP]

pot, kettle i guess....i'm just stating it for what it is. what i've said about the intent of the line setting isn't wrong, so i'm not skewing my view at all really.

Jake, sometimes I think you like to argue just to argue, and you take offense when no offense is intended.

When I said your perspective as a fan is skewed, I didn't mean JUST YOU JAKE. I meant all fans. My perspective is skewed. Every other Tennessee fan, too. None of us can be objective, we're all invested in one team or another.

But Vegas isn't. Even if they're not trying to predict outcomes (and we all know they're not, no need to say it again), they remain the ONLY objective source around to define what would or would not be an upset.

*shrug* it's just the world we live in. No personal attack on you.

 

[BeecherVol]

Got PayPal?

Straight cash homey!

Bubba will be by tomorrow.