Gators 49
Bailey 27
My semi-analytical doofus method, which worked last week, says...
Scoring D:
UF 30.0
UT 31.5
Difference = (1.5)
Scoring O:
UF 45.8
UT 20.7
Difference = (25.1)
Total = (26.6)
Add backs:
Bailey scoring factor +7
Home field adds nothing with minimal fans and UF performing well there historically
Coaching staff factor -7
Oddsmakers -17.5
Mine -26.6
Split the difference rounded = -22
There has never been a better illustration of how the game has changed over the past 5-10 years than the scoring stats above demonstrate. An elite P-5 SEC team is giving up 30 PPG, yet still winning by 15+ every game, only has one loss on the season, will be playing in the SECCG, and has a shot to make the NC playoff.