‘22 FL SF Dillon Mitchell

[allvolrecruiting]

Kessler Edwards is 2 inches taller, shot over 43% from 3 his sophomore season and then shot 87.6% from the FT line last season. NBA scouts use the FT% to judge shooting potential.

For Josiah to be on NBA radars based on his defense, he would need to be a Kawhi level lockdown defender to overcome his current lack of offensive firepower. He is not that. He will be a good 4 year college player who carves out a nice career overseas if he wants.

Take away the 5 stars next to his recruiting ranking and we wouldn't be discussing him as a an NBA prospect. Neither would a lot of the draft pundits in their articles this early.

Nobody uses FT% now as evidenced by Davion Mitchell (65% from FT line) being a lottery pick. JJJ is one of the top graded returning defenders in the nation. Top 5 I'm pretty sure. Kessler is an inch taller and shot better but played way easier competition. He got drafted because he was a lockdown defender.

 

[Chris4Vols22]

Nobody uses FT% now as evidenced by Davion Mitchell (65% from FT line) being a lottery pick. JJJ is one of the top graded returning defenders in the nation. Top 5 I'm pretty sure. Kessler is an inch taller and shot better but played way easier competition. He got drafted because he was a lockdown defender.

Lol scouts didn't need to look at Mitchell's FT% to determine if he's a good shooter. He was over 51% FG when 44% 3pt when he left Baylor.

 

[allvolrecruiting]

Lol scouts didn't need to look at Mitchell's FT% to determine if he's a good shooter. He was over 51% FG when 44% 3pt when he left Baylor.

That was the point. Scouts don't care about FT% anymore. He was a 31% career 3 point shooter before last season as well

 

[zjcvols]

Nobody uses FT% now as evidenced by Davion Mitchell (65% from FT line) being a lottery pick. JJJ is one of the top graded returning defenders in the nation. Top 5 I'm pretty sure. Kessler is an inch taller and shot better but played way easier competition. He got drafted because he was a lockdown defender.

That is a lie. Scouts use FT% all the time and there is a lot of evidence that a good FT% despite lower 3P% can become a good shooter.

 

[walkenvol]

I’m not saying he can’t find a place, just simply disagree that if he plays at the level he has been that he’s going to be getting drafted…he needs to up his level of play.

My post has him upping his production so what are you trying to say? He’s been hurt or recovering for the 2 years he’s been at UT and had wrist surgery this off season. I think the limited times he’s been healthy he’s shown very well.
Again, if he can stay healthy and prove he’s a solid 3 point shooter then I think he can play in the NBA. JMO of course

 

[Vols8086]

Nobody uses FT% now as evidenced by Davion Mitchell (65% from FT line) being a lottery pick. JJJ is one of the top graded returning defenders in the nation. Top 5 I'm pretty sure. Kessler is an inch taller and shot better but played way easier competition. He got drafted because he was a lockdown defender.

That's false. They use FT% when trying to project a player's jumpshot that hasn't yet translated in college. Like JJJ who hasn't shown to be a good shooter yet. So when you claim he has "catch and shoot potential", his FT% would be the first indicator scouts would look at. 78% isn't bad, but it also doesn't scream untapped potential either.

Kessler was drafted for his 3 and D potential. You need to do both, or be absolutely elite (like All NBA levels of elite) at one of those skills if you can't do both. JJJ has shown to be solid at one and underwhelming at the other. If his shot doesn't develop, then he will need to be the best perimeter defender in all of college basketball to get drafted.

As for your Davion Mitchell comparison, Mitchell can play the point and run your offense. JJJ can't do either of those things. There was a lot more to his game and how it translates at the next level.

 

[cncchris33]

Nobody uses FT% now as evidenced by Davion Mitchell (65% from FT line) being a lottery pick. JJJ is one of the top graded returning defenders in the nation. Top 5 I'm pretty sure. Kessler is an inch taller and shot better but played way easier competition. He got drafted because he was a lockdown defender.

Wrong

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I thought some of our better teams were from 3 stars that stayed and were developed. I think Barnes is much better at that than the one and done.

There’s no doubt that was our better team…whether that was a one time luck of the draw or it can be duplicated remains to be seen.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Nobody uses FT% now as evidenced by Davion Mitchell (65% from FT line) being a lottery pick. JJJ is one of the top graded returning defenders in the nation. Top 5 I'm pretty sure. Kessler is an inch taller and shot better but played way easier competition. He got drafted because he was a lockdown defender.

Edwards also has a 6’11” wingspan, your comparison isn’t a good one.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

My post has him upping his production so what are you trying to say? He’s been hurt or recovering for the 2 years he’s been at UT and had wrist surgery this off season. I think the limited times he’s been healthy he’s shown very well.
Again, if he can stay healthy and prove he’s a solid 3 point shooter then I think he can play in the NBA. JMO of course

I was agreeing with you, was just stating that he had to improve quite a bit, not just stay the same together drafted…which was the OP’s point.

 

[JelloPuddinPup]

He didn’t even bother to get evaluated this past year, didn’t see him on many mocks either…and yea, those projecting him to be drafted this upcoming year are projecting him to do better than another 27m 8p 6r type season…that won’t get him drafted, especially another year older. In fact the article you linked literally states he has to turn a corner offensively and produce better, in other words, take his game to another level.

I've read the whole thread and I agree with you on all points. But just throwing out there that there were some mocks last year that had JJJ in the 2nd round before the season began (similar to what's happening this year). I think those are based purely on the fact that he was a highly-ranked recruit and not off actual college performance...thus why he dropped out of mocks once performance was factored in.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I've read the whole thread and I agree with you on all points. But just throwing out there that there were some mocks last year that had JJJ in the 2nd round before the season began (similar to what's happening this year). I think those are based purely on the fact that he was a highly-ranked recruit and not off actual college performance...thus why he dropped out of mocks once performance was factored in.

Yup…like someone else said, take away his high school ranking and he’s not appearing in mocks.

 

[allvolrecruiting]

Edwards also has a 6’11” wingspan, your comparison isn’t a good one.

Wasn't comping JJJ to Edwards, was saying he could have a similar draft outlook as Edwards

 

[allvolrecruiting]

That's false. They use FT% when trying to project a player's jumpshot that hasn't yet translated in college. Like JJJ who hasn't shown to be a good shooter yet. So when you claim he has "catch and shoot potential", his FT% would be the first indicator scouts would look at. 78% isn't bad, but it also doesn't scream untapped potential either.

Kessler was drafted for his 3 and D potential. You need to do both, or be absolutely elite (like All NBA levels of elite) at one of those skills if you can't do both. JJJ has shown to be solid at one and underwhelming at the other. If his shot doesn't develop, then he will need to be the best perimeter defender in all of college basketball to get drafted.

As for your Davion Mitchell comparison, Mitchell can play the point and run your offense. JJJ can't do either of those things. There was a lot more to his game and how it translates at the next level.

If they used just FT% to project a jump shot why was Davion Mitchell a lottery pick? Teams are starting to trend away from FT% and look at 3pt%, C&S%, Movement Shooting %, if they have a quick, repeatable form, etc.

 

[JelloPuddinPup]

If they used just FT% to project a jump shot why was Davion Mitchell a lottery pick? Teams are starting to trend away from FT% and look at 3pt%, C&S%, Movement Shooting %, if they have a quick, repeatable form, etc.

It's obviously not the only metric they use, but saying they don't use it anymore is just misguided. They all factor in. If scouts went to their owners/executives and said they thought a player could become a good shooter -solely- based off his FT% they would not be a scout anymore.

 

[allvolrecruiting]

If they used just FT% to project a jump shot why was Davion Mitchell a lottery pick? Teams are starting to trend away from FT% and look at 3pt%, C&S%, Movement Shooting %, if they have a quick, repeatable form, etc.

Davion Mitchell college FT% - 64%/college 3pt% - 38%
OG Anunoby college FT% - 52%/NBA 3 pt% - 39%
Lonzo Ball college FT% - 67%/NBA 3pt% - 36%
Brandon Ingram college FT% - 68%/NBA 3pt% - 37%
Joe Harris college FT% - 72%/NBA 3pt% - 44%

I know JJJ isn't as great a scorer as some on there, but those are some examples that were all top 35 picks. He only shot 31% from 3 this past year, but shot 37% the year prior. Some much needed added shooting to this team should help him improve those numbers. And if you want to use FT%, 78% isn't bad at all

 

[walkenvol]

Davion Mitchell college FT% - 64%/college 3pt% - 38%
OG Anunoby college FT% - 52%/NBA 3 pt% - 39%
Lonzo Ball college FT% - 67%/NBA 3pt% - 36%
Brandon Ingram college FT% - 68%/NBA 3pt% - 37%
Joe Harris college FT% - 72%/NBA 3pt% - 44%

I know JJJ isn't as great a scorer as some on there, but those are some examples that were all top 35 picks. He only shot 31% from 3 this past year, but shot 37% the year prior. Some much needed added shooting to this team should help him improve those numbers. And if you want to use FT%, 78% isn't bad at all

I think JJJ’s 3 point percentage dropped following the wrist injury last year. Before wrist injury he was shooting 3’s really well IIRC.

 

[allvolrecruiting]

I think JJJ’s 3 point percentage dropped following the wrist injury last year. Before wrist injury he was shooting 3’s really well IIRC.

and it was a weird covid year with limited-to-none offseason and Barnes starting the season with covid extending the dead period for us. JJJ also shot 43% from 3 in conference play his freshman year

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Wasn't comping JJJ to Edwards, was saying he could have a similar draft outlook as Edwards

That’s comparing him…to compare draft outlook between players they would need to be similar. I’m not gonna sit here and say Vescovi could be viewed as Shaq.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

and it was a weird covid year with limited-to-none offseason and Barnes starting the season with covid extending the dead period for us. JJJ also shot 43% from 3 in conference play his freshman year

Right, but 43% isn’t his 2 year sample size. That was the whole point, you said if he keeps playing at the level he has he’d be getting drafted…his 2 year level of play is…

28.5mpg 7.7ppg 6rpg 2.5apg 1.1spg 38%fg 33.5%3pt 77.8%ft


There’s literally zero chance that if he puts up those numbers this year that he will be getting drafted

 

[Chris4Vols22]

That was the point. Scouts don't care about FT% anymore. He was a 31% career 3 point shooter before last season as well

If they used just FT% to project a jump shot why was Davion Mitchell a lottery pick? Teams are starting to trend away from FT% and look at 3pt%, C&S%, Movement Shooting %, if they have a quick, repeatable form, etc.

Bro, the whole idea of scouts looking at FT% to determine potential jump shot quality is typically only used when a prospect has weak FG% and 3pt%. Obviously they're not using that idea to evaluate Mitchell's shooting potential - that's a terrible example for your claim that's incorrect to begin with.

 

[allvolrecruiting]

Bro, the whole idea of scouts looking at FT% to determine potential jump shot quality is typically only used when a prospect has weak FG% and 3pt%. Obviously they're not using that idea to evaluate Mitchell's shooting potential - that's a terrible example for your claim that's incorrect to begin with.

Davion Mitchell had terrible 3 point shooting % before last year. Was just the most recent example I thought of

 

[CAVPUT]

If Mitchell ends up anywhere other than FSU, I'll be shocked. Momma loves the Noles. Keep swinging, but it's a long shot at best.

 

[ClasslessVol]

 

[golfballs]