kidbourbon
Disgusting!
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2005
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The tune-up tournaments are in the rearview mirror. The qualifying tournament starts tomorrow, and then the tournament kicks off next Monday (08/25). Needless to say, I'm pumped.
One thing we know for certain is that we won't have a repeat champion this year. Del Potro has been out with a wrist injury all year. He recently started practicing again, and there was some speculation that he might be ready in time for the Open. But he's not. This is unfortunate as I like Delpo, but even if he were to play, he'd be quite rusty and wouldn't realistically be considered a contender.
The Contenders:
1. Rafa Nadal: hard courts are Nadal's worst surface. This has never really made any sense to me. Nadal is the greatest player ever on clay, which is the slowest surface. And Nadal is great on grass, which is the fastest surface. So why wouldn't he be great on the hard courts, the speed of which fall somewhere in between clay and grass, but closer to grass than clay?
The answer, as best I can tell, is that Nadal's body just starts to break down on hard courts. If you've watched a lot of Nadal, it's easy to see how this would happen. Nadal has otherwordly speed and agility on a tennis court, and he has never been accused of changing directions in a delicate manner. Couple that with the fragility of his knees, and it isn't surprising that Nadal ends up looking like a shell of himself by the time he gets to the semifinals.
HOWEVER, Nadal is aware of this problem, and he's been a lot smarter in his preparations this year. He's going into this year's tournament healthy and well-rested because he's played a much lighter tune-up schedule. Now the flipside of that is that he's only played a handful of matches on the hard courts, and so he still has some adjusting to do. I don't think this is a huge concern. He'll be the #1 seed, and so his first three matches should be relatively easy. At that point, he'll be fully acclimated to the surface, and when he starts playing against the big boys in the 4th round, I think we're gonna see the same Nadal we saw at Wimbledon and the French.
2. Roger Federer: a lot of people would put Federer -- and not Nadal -- as the favorite after his win last week in Cincinnati. And Federer, now working with Paul Annacone, appears to be back to top or near-top form. But I can't call him the favorite over Nadal. Nadal is unquestionably the best tennis player in the world right now. And he's highly motivated to win the only major he hasn't yet won. Plus, if these guys meet in the final, Nadal wins. Why? Because that's what happens when Nadal plays Federer.
3. Andy Murray: Murray is finally playing with a little bit of moxie. He took out Nadal and Federer in consecutive matches to win the tune-up in Toronto. That's no easy task. He recently parted ways with his coach, and he's been playing in an eff you mode ever since. Which is what he needs to do. Over passivity is his downfall. When he plays like he has a sack of nuts in his pants, he's a legit contender.
4. Marcos Baghdatis: I saw this guy play in DC and was really really impressed. He has all the shots. I wasn't surprised when he took out Nadal in Cincinnati. The biggest thing with Baghdatis is fitness. He has a reputation for being a partier and not paying nearly enough attention to his fitness. But he's had a lot of success this summer, advancing deep into a couple of the hardcourt tune-up events. So, even if he isn't the most dedicated player when it comes to fitness, you gotta think he's played himself into pretty good shape. And he has serious game. He can beat anybody on the tour (he also beat Federer earlier this year), and he appears to be back to his 2006 form, when he made it to the finals of the Australian Open, only to lose in 4 sets to Federer.
Baghdatis is dangerous, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see him knock off one of the top guys in a 4th round or quarterfinal match, and then lose in the next round to a lesser player. That's kinda his M.O.
5. Mardy Fish: playing the best tennis of his career. His recent results speak for themselves. He is on fire right now. He is the only american who has any chance at all.
6. David Nalbandian: like Baghdatis, Nalbandian has a reputation as a partier who never realized his full potential. But he's been on a tear this summer. He's back healthy for the first time in two years and playing like a man possessed. However, he's played a lot this summer, and he's no longer a spring chicken. His most recent result in Cincy suggests he may be running out of steam as he gets closer to the finish line.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, completes the list of the players who can win the Open. Nobody else has a chance.
The Pretenders:
-Roddick? Zero chance.
-Djokovic? Hell, I could probably beat Djokovic right now.
-Berdych or Soderling? I lump these guys together because they play a similar type of game. I also lump them together because they've both looked exceedingly unimpressive throughout the hard court season. Two months ago I wouldn't have expected to be writing this about these two guys -- especially Soderling, whose game seems like it would translate well to the hard courts. But they've both looked like crap.
And Finally I'm done:
So that's my take. What do y'all think? Is it going to be another major with Federer or Nadal prevailing, or is this finally the time when a guy like Murray can break through and get his first major?
Also, is anybody going to this? I'm likely going to go for two days over labor day weekend. I really wanna see Federer and Nadal play before it's too late.
One thing we know for certain is that we won't have a repeat champion this year. Del Potro has been out with a wrist injury all year. He recently started practicing again, and there was some speculation that he might be ready in time for the Open. But he's not. This is unfortunate as I like Delpo, but even if he were to play, he'd be quite rusty and wouldn't realistically be considered a contender.
The Contenders:
1. Rafa Nadal: hard courts are Nadal's worst surface. This has never really made any sense to me. Nadal is the greatest player ever on clay, which is the slowest surface. And Nadal is great on grass, which is the fastest surface. So why wouldn't he be great on the hard courts, the speed of which fall somewhere in between clay and grass, but closer to grass than clay?
The answer, as best I can tell, is that Nadal's body just starts to break down on hard courts. If you've watched a lot of Nadal, it's easy to see how this would happen. Nadal has otherwordly speed and agility on a tennis court, and he has never been accused of changing directions in a delicate manner. Couple that with the fragility of his knees, and it isn't surprising that Nadal ends up looking like a shell of himself by the time he gets to the semifinals.
HOWEVER, Nadal is aware of this problem, and he's been a lot smarter in his preparations this year. He's going into this year's tournament healthy and well-rested because he's played a much lighter tune-up schedule. Now the flipside of that is that he's only played a handful of matches on the hard courts, and so he still has some adjusting to do. I don't think this is a huge concern. He'll be the #1 seed, and so his first three matches should be relatively easy. At that point, he'll be fully acclimated to the surface, and when he starts playing against the big boys in the 4th round, I think we're gonna see the same Nadal we saw at Wimbledon and the French.
2. Roger Federer: a lot of people would put Federer -- and not Nadal -- as the favorite after his win last week in Cincinnati. And Federer, now working with Paul Annacone, appears to be back to top or near-top form. But I can't call him the favorite over Nadal. Nadal is unquestionably the best tennis player in the world right now. And he's highly motivated to win the only major he hasn't yet won. Plus, if these guys meet in the final, Nadal wins. Why? Because that's what happens when Nadal plays Federer.
3. Andy Murray: Murray is finally playing with a little bit of moxie. He took out Nadal and Federer in consecutive matches to win the tune-up in Toronto. That's no easy task. He recently parted ways with his coach, and he's been playing in an eff you mode ever since. Which is what he needs to do. Over passivity is his downfall. When he plays like he has a sack of nuts in his pants, he's a legit contender.
4. Marcos Baghdatis: I saw this guy play in DC and was really really impressed. He has all the shots. I wasn't surprised when he took out Nadal in Cincinnati. The biggest thing with Baghdatis is fitness. He has a reputation for being a partier and not paying nearly enough attention to his fitness. But he's had a lot of success this summer, advancing deep into a couple of the hardcourt tune-up events. So, even if he isn't the most dedicated player when it comes to fitness, you gotta think he's played himself into pretty good shape. And he has serious game. He can beat anybody on the tour (he also beat Federer earlier this year), and he appears to be back to his 2006 form, when he made it to the finals of the Australian Open, only to lose in 4 sets to Federer.
Baghdatis is dangerous, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see him knock off one of the top guys in a 4th round or quarterfinal match, and then lose in the next round to a lesser player. That's kinda his M.O.
5. Mardy Fish: playing the best tennis of his career. His recent results speak for themselves. He is on fire right now. He is the only american who has any chance at all.
6. David Nalbandian: like Baghdatis, Nalbandian has a reputation as a partier who never realized his full potential. But he's been on a tear this summer. He's back healthy for the first time in two years and playing like a man possessed. However, he's played a lot this summer, and he's no longer a spring chicken. His most recent result in Cincy suggests he may be running out of steam as he gets closer to the finish line.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, completes the list of the players who can win the Open. Nobody else has a chance.
The Pretenders:
-Roddick? Zero chance.
-Djokovic? Hell, I could probably beat Djokovic right now.
-Berdych or Soderling? I lump these guys together because they play a similar type of game. I also lump them together because they've both looked exceedingly unimpressive throughout the hard court season. Two months ago I wouldn't have expected to be writing this about these two guys -- especially Soderling, whose game seems like it would translate well to the hard courts. But they've both looked like crap.
And Finally I'm done:
So that's my take. What do y'all think? Is it going to be another major with Federer or Nadal prevailing, or is this finally the time when a guy like Murray can break through and get his first major?
Also, is anybody going to this? I'm likely going to go for two days over labor day weekend. I really wanna see Federer and Nadal play before it's too late.