2010 U.S. Open Unoffical Thread

#1

kidbourbon

Disgusting!
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#1
The tune-up tournaments are in the rearview mirror. The qualifying tournament starts tomorrow, and then the tournament kicks off next Monday (08/25). Needless to say, I'm pumped.

One thing we know for certain is that we won't have a repeat champion this year. Del Potro has been out with a wrist injury all year. He recently started practicing again, and there was some speculation that he might be ready in time for the Open. But he's not. This is unfortunate as I like Delpo, but even if he were to play, he'd be quite rusty and wouldn't realistically be considered a contender.

The Contenders:
1. Rafa Nadal: hard courts are Nadal's worst surface. This has never really made any sense to me. Nadal is the greatest player ever on clay, which is the slowest surface. And Nadal is great on grass, which is the fastest surface. So why wouldn't he be great on the hard courts, the speed of which fall somewhere in between clay and grass, but closer to grass than clay?

The answer, as best I can tell, is that Nadal's body just starts to break down on hard courts. If you've watched a lot of Nadal, it's easy to see how this would happen. Nadal has otherwordly speed and agility on a tennis court, and he has never been accused of changing directions in a delicate manner. Couple that with the fragility of his knees, and it isn't surprising that Nadal ends up looking like a shell of himself by the time he gets to the semifinals.

HOWEVER, Nadal is aware of this problem, and he's been a lot smarter in his preparations this year. He's going into this year's tournament healthy and well-rested because he's played a much lighter tune-up schedule. Now the flipside of that is that he's only played a handful of matches on the hard courts, and so he still has some adjusting to do. I don't think this is a huge concern. He'll be the #1 seed, and so his first three matches should be relatively easy. At that point, he'll be fully acclimated to the surface, and when he starts playing against the big boys in the 4th round, I think we're gonna see the same Nadal we saw at Wimbledon and the French.

2. Roger Federer: a lot of people would put Federer -- and not Nadal -- as the favorite after his win last week in Cincinnati. And Federer, now working with Paul Annacone, appears to be back to top or near-top form. But I can't call him the favorite over Nadal. Nadal is unquestionably the best tennis player in the world right now. And he's highly motivated to win the only major he hasn't yet won. Plus, if these guys meet in the final, Nadal wins. Why? Because that's what happens when Nadal plays Federer.

3. Andy Murray: Murray is finally playing with a little bit of moxie. He took out Nadal and Federer in consecutive matches to win the tune-up in Toronto. That's no easy task. He recently parted ways with his coach, and he's been playing in an eff you mode ever since. Which is what he needs to do. Over passivity is his downfall. When he plays like he has a sack of nuts in his pants, he's a legit contender.

4. Marcos Baghdatis: I saw this guy play in DC and was really really impressed. He has all the shots. I wasn't surprised when he took out Nadal in Cincinnati. The biggest thing with Baghdatis is fitness. He has a reputation for being a partier and not paying nearly enough attention to his fitness. But he's had a lot of success this summer, advancing deep into a couple of the hardcourt tune-up events. So, even if he isn't the most dedicated player when it comes to fitness, you gotta think he's played himself into pretty good shape. And he has serious game. He can beat anybody on the tour (he also beat Federer earlier this year), and he appears to be back to his 2006 form, when he made it to the finals of the Australian Open, only to lose in 4 sets to Federer.

Baghdatis is dangerous, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see him knock off one of the top guys in a 4th round or quarterfinal match, and then lose in the next round to a lesser player. That's kinda his M.O.

5. Mardy Fish: playing the best tennis of his career. His recent results speak for themselves. He is on fire right now. He is the only american who has any chance at all.

6. David Nalbandian: like Baghdatis, Nalbandian has a reputation as a partier who never realized his full potential. But he's been on a tear this summer. He's back healthy for the first time in two years and playing like a man possessed. However, he's played a lot this summer, and he's no longer a spring chicken. His most recent result in Cincy suggests he may be running out of steam as he gets closer to the finish line.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, completes the list of the players who can win the Open. Nobody else has a chance.

The Pretenders:
-Roddick? Zero chance.
-Djokovic? Hell, I could probably beat Djokovic right now.
-Berdych or Soderling? I lump these guys together because they play a similar type of game. I also lump them together because they've both looked exceedingly unimpressive throughout the hard court season. Two months ago I wouldn't have expected to be writing this about these two guys -- especially Soderling, whose game seems like it would translate well to the hard courts. But they've both looked like crap.

And Finally I'm done:
So that's my take. What do y'all think? Is it going to be another major with Federer or Nadal prevailing, or is this finally the time when a guy like Murray can break through and get his first major?

Also, is anybody going to this? I'm likely going to go for two days over labor day weekend. I really wanna see Federer and Nadal play before it's too late.
 
#2
#2
Anything is possible but the smart money is on Roger Federer taking the US Open title. After essentially getting disgraced at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon, Federer is madder than hell and isn't gonna take it anymore. He is playing with greater confidence and his strokes are crisper off both wings. He wants this title bad. He wants Nadal in the final.

Sadly, that won't happen again this year. Nadal and hard courts don't mesh. Nadal is #1 right now but has been less than steller during the hc season. I think it all has to do with the ball skipping through the US hard courts (as opposed to Australia's version which sets the ball up). Nadal is well rested for a run at the title, but his game is not ready.

Murray could take it, but I will believe it when I see it. Despite his run in Toronto, he has done nothing that leads me to have faith he will win a major this year.

You are spot on about Berdych and Soderling. Totally agree. If Fed and Sod meet in the quarters, Fed will rip him apart (revenge the motivating factor).

Djok, Baggy, and Nalbandian will have decent runs but aren't threats to win it.

I hope Mardy Fish has a great US Open, but fear that he is probably running low in the tank. Same for Roddick. Just not quite where he should be this close to the Open.

I can see a Murray Federer final with Fed prevailing in 4 or 5.

Hope you get to make it up there to catch some matches. Never been to US Open but imagine it is something else.
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#3
#3
I think this is going to be the most interesting Open in the past few years. Fed, as much as I hate to say it, is sliding into the end of his career. Nadal is a little hobbled and not playing well. Murray might have a legit shot, as well as Soderling if he's playing well. Querrey is my dark horse. He hasnt had the the summer Fish has, but he is looking better and better.
 
#4
#4
just because Mardy beat Roddick the other day, he's not a contender. I commend you for wanting to put an American in the contender list, but let's quit kidding ourselves.
 
#5
#5
just because Mardy beat Roddick the other day, he's not a contender. I commend you for wanting to put an American in the contender list, but let's quit kidding ourselves.

I could see him making the semis. He had a really good summer.
 
#6
#6
I think this is going to be the most interesting Open in the past few years. Fed, as much as I hate to say it, is sliding into the end of his career. Nadal is a little hobbled and not playing well. Murray might have a legit shot, as well as Soderling if he's playing well. Querrey is my dark horse. He hasnt had the the summer Fish has, but he is looking better and better.

He hasn't played his best this summer, but his knee is fine. He's healthy.
 
#7
#7
Today's performance for Soderling doesn't bode well for him going far this tournament. 5 sets against a qualifier on the first day? I expected more of him, even given his hardcourt performance thus far. I think Simon and Davydenko are worth keeping an eye on, as well as Cilic(outside of the players mentioned above). I'd like to see Querrey do well but I don't like his draw. Mainly, I agree with all the OP's 'contenders.'
 
#9
#9
Bags just got dropped in the 1st round.

I just got home and saw that. Didn't see that one coming. Clement is sneaky but damn... Fish had problems today, too I suppose. Just saw where he went 5 but won the last 2 handily.
 
#10
#10
Nadal not looking great either... More importantly though Chris Fowler is boring for tennis and I'm pretty sure ESPN keeps a tight gag on John. I really feel the coverage was so much better on USA.
 
#11
#11
John and Pat McEnroe were talking about this surface yesterday and said Flushing is now the fastest surface in the major rota. Said Wimbledon has been severely slowed because they want a certain style of play. They were very matter of fact about the comments.
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#13
#13
Roddick wrogly makes a 'Super Brat' out of himself, reminiscent of a certain announcer that used to play, over a foot fault call then gets called for a foot fault that he didn't commit and he was ok w/ it. Then he aces the game out on a serve that he foot faulted on but didn't get called for. What a mess!
 
#14
#14
Tips deserved that match, i work with a serbian guy who's an avid tennis fan, he'll be a happy camper tomorrow.
 
#15
#15
Roddick's neutered game can't pressure anyone. Tipso was measuring those shots and just ripping rockets all over the place. He was as impressive as Roddick was effeminate. That said, Roddick is going home with Brooklyn Decker.
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#18
#18
Tips woman isn't bad at all, but I just want to put out that Ana is still beautiful...
 
#20
#20
Think they said that he just married her. She was beautiful and was rockin' some tiny shorts.
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Oh ok, i have never heard of him, i like the guy, seems very well rounded. He's also a good looking guy, with some killer legs.
 
#21
#21
I ran into Tipsarevic a couple years ago at a tournament and he couldn'tve been a bigger a-hole. This was the summer of the year he lost to Federer in the 5th set at the Australian Open.

He had lost the previous day at the tournament I was attending so I was surprised to see that he was still there. He was walking around in "street clothes" and some kid actually recognized him and asked for his autograph. He put his hand up and told the kid "no" because he was very busy.

Tipso goes into the locker room and comes back out 5 minutes later eating an ice cream cone. He looked way too busy to sign that kid's an autograph.

Have to say he gave a good interview after beating Roddick tonight. Seemed really laid back. He busts the ball, but will be sent packing when he plays someone with their head screwed on right.

Roddick may blame the mono, and rightly so to a degree, but he just wasn't there mentally tonight. Tough loss for sure.
 
#22
#22
Roddick's neutered game can't pressure anyone. Tipso was measuring those shots and just ripping rockets all over the place. He was as impressive as Roddick was effeminate. That said, Roddick is going home with Brooklyn Decker.
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Roddick is certainly a life winner.
 
#23
#23
John and Pat McEnroe were talking about this surface yesterday and said Flushing is now the fastest surface in the major rota. Said Wimbledon has been severely slowed because they want a certain style of play. They were very matter of fact about the comments.
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Various announcers/players seem to toss out matter-of-fact comments on this subject from both sides of the argument. I myself have a hard time believing that the Open hard courts are so fast that they're faster than grass. Just watching the wimbledon matches on TV, the ball never seems like it gets above waist high.
 
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#24
#24
I just got home and saw that. Didn't see that one coming. Clement is sneaky but damn... Fish had problems today, too I suppose. Just saw where he went 5 but won the last 2 handily.

I think Bags played too much this summer. He played the Pilot Pen after Cincy, which I think is just a bad idea. I think he was simply out of gas.
 
#25
#25
Roddick wrogly makes a 'Super Brat' out of himself, reminiscent of a certain announcer that used to play, over a foot fault call then gets called for a foot fault that he didn't commit and he was ok w/ it. Then he aces the game out on a serve that he foot faulted on but didn't get called for. What a mess!

That certain announcer that used to play was talented enough to get away with being a superbrat. Roddick...er...not so much.
 

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