kidbourbon
Disgusting!
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{NOTE: mods if you could merge Mphs_Blues' "Djokovic or the field" thread in with this one, that would be lovely.}
I made it up to last year's open and had a great time seeing guys like Nadal, Fed, Djoker, and Murray. You know, guys who are pretty decent at tennis. (Actually, Murray was completely horrendous at last year's Open, but the others were quite good.)
A huge missing ingredient from last year's Open was the absence of Juan Martin Del Potro (delpo), who was the defending champ. Delpo is back in the mix this year, and even though he hasn't had the most impressive hard court season, all it takes is a couple good matches under your belt to get back in top form. And, when in top form, Delpo is arguably the best hardcourt player in tennis. And if it wasn't for the Djoker's obscene current level, I would have removed the "arguably" from the prior sentence. But can he win this tournament? These and other questions will be addressed Right. About. Now.
Contenders:
1. Novak Djokovic: Djokovic is the heavy favorite because he is simply playing better tennis than anybody else right now. And he is the only player in the draw who is immune to the random upset by a player not named Fed, Rafa, Delpo, or Murray. Outside of those players, nobody can beat Djokovic. You may notice that the best players in Djoke's quadrant are Gasquet, Berdych, Tipsy, and Monfils. You may also notice that none of those players are named Fed, Rafa, Delpo, or Murray. It logically follows that Djokovic has been appropriately penciled into the semifinals by yours truly.
To the extent you have convinced yourself that any of Gasquet, Berdych, Tipsy, or Monfils can beat Djoker, allow me to introduce you to my good friend Mr. Reality.
Djoker will meet Mardy Fish in the semi's. More on that in a second.
2. Rafa Nadal:
Many of you may note that something has been off with Rafa since Wimbledon, and that he hasn't looked like himself. I would agree, but I also don't read much into it. I mean, has Rafa ever won a U.S. Open tune-up tournament? Which is to, more specifically, ask: has Rafa ever won Montreal or Cincy? Let me know if I'm wrong, but I don't think he has.
What we also know about Rafa is that he is very much a player that needs to get his reps in. With continued reps muscle memory starts to produce better shots, better shots produce wins, which in turn results in increased confidence and increased opportunities for continued reps. You can rinse, lather, and repeat this cycle with Rafa, and eventually he'll find himself in top form, where is basically unbeatable. His unbeatableness will end when either with an injury or just fatigue from the grind. And he'll have to start the cycle from the beginning. This is just how Rafa is.
The reason the above paragraph is important in assessing his chances at winning this tournament, is that Rafa has a pretty pedestrian draw. Check out his quadrant and find somebody who has a chance of beating him? Youzhny? No. Roddick? No. Ferrer? No.
So what will happen is that Rafa will keep getting better with each match, and then after he beats Ferrer in a 4-set match to get to the semifinals, "emo Rafa" will have been completely replaced by "confident Rafa".
3. Mardy Fish:
Fish and Federer are in the same quadrant. If they end up meeting in the quarters, who do you think wins? If you answered Federer, you are operating on the assumption that his form will have improved by the time that match takes place. Because if Fish had played Federer at any point this summer, the evidence points to the conclusion that he would have won.
I really like the way Fish is playing right now, and so I predict he will make it to the semi's. But once there, he will likely be matched up against a not-so-shabby opponent by the name of Novak. Fish and Novak recently played in the Montreal final, and Fish showed that he can play with the Djoker. By no means was he outclassed, and indeed right up until the very end, Fish was in a position to win the match. If they end up playing again in the Semis, I definitely give Fish a decent chance of winning. To be clear, I give Djokovic much better chances of winning, but a Fish victory would not be shocking to me. To put it another way, at present form, Fish would beat Djokovic twice for every 9 matches they played. Djokovic prevails 7-2 in a best of 9 series.
4. Andy Murray:
I know. I know. But he's in good form, and the most dangerous guy in his quadrant is Delpo. I mentioned before how good Delpo is on hard courts when he is in top form, but he is just SO FAR away from top form right now that I think it would be unreasonable to conclude that he is going to be able to get there in 4 matches.
Good form though Murray may be in, think about this for a second. Or, rather, just do a little exercise with me. Close your eyes and then picture in your imagination Andy Murray beating Rafa Nadal in a grand slam semifinal. ::waiting 5 seconds::
You couldn't do it could you? I couldn't. I mean, I could for a second, but the scene looked so not believable that I started giggling. Poor Andy Murray.
5. Delpo:
See the Andy Murray section above, but assume Delpo was able to pull out a win. He would likely have Rafa in the semifinals, and at that point would be bursting with confidence. He would have a decent -- or maybe even good -- chance of winning that match. From there, we would be able to say that he is indeed at top form, and we would likely be seeing a lot of that punishing punishing Delpo forehand where it appears that the ball has been shot out of a damn cannon.
I'm not picking Delpo, but I can't rule him out because he's got that punchers chance.
6. Roger Federer:
I'm putting him this low, not because I think he is the 6th best player in the world, but because he already upset Djokovic this year by playing his best tennis of the year and it isn't happening again. Nobody's beating Djokovic twice this year. Mark that down.
That covers it. Don't talk yourself into anybody else, and I wouldn't even talk myself into Federer if I were you.
In response to the question posted in Mphs_blues thread, here goes: if it were even money, I would take the field over Djokovic. But Djokovic is definitely the heavy favorite.
My pick: Djokovic
I made it up to last year's open and had a great time seeing guys like Nadal, Fed, Djoker, and Murray. You know, guys who are pretty decent at tennis. (Actually, Murray was completely horrendous at last year's Open, but the others were quite good.)
A huge missing ingredient from last year's Open was the absence of Juan Martin Del Potro (delpo), who was the defending champ. Delpo is back in the mix this year, and even though he hasn't had the most impressive hard court season, all it takes is a couple good matches under your belt to get back in top form. And, when in top form, Delpo is arguably the best hardcourt player in tennis. And if it wasn't for the Djoker's obscene current level, I would have removed the "arguably" from the prior sentence. But can he win this tournament? These and other questions will be addressed Right. About. Now.
Contenders:
1. Novak Djokovic: Djokovic is the heavy favorite because he is simply playing better tennis than anybody else right now. And he is the only player in the draw who is immune to the random upset by a player not named Fed, Rafa, Delpo, or Murray. Outside of those players, nobody can beat Djokovic. You may notice that the best players in Djoke's quadrant are Gasquet, Berdych, Tipsy, and Monfils. You may also notice that none of those players are named Fed, Rafa, Delpo, or Murray. It logically follows that Djokovic has been appropriately penciled into the semifinals by yours truly.
To the extent you have convinced yourself that any of Gasquet, Berdych, Tipsy, or Monfils can beat Djoker, allow me to introduce you to my good friend Mr. Reality.
Djoker will meet Mardy Fish in the semi's. More on that in a second.
2. Rafa Nadal:
Many of you may note that something has been off with Rafa since Wimbledon, and that he hasn't looked like himself. I would agree, but I also don't read much into it. I mean, has Rafa ever won a U.S. Open tune-up tournament? Which is to, more specifically, ask: has Rafa ever won Montreal or Cincy? Let me know if I'm wrong, but I don't think he has.
What we also know about Rafa is that he is very much a player that needs to get his reps in. With continued reps muscle memory starts to produce better shots, better shots produce wins, which in turn results in increased confidence and increased opportunities for continued reps. You can rinse, lather, and repeat this cycle with Rafa, and eventually he'll find himself in top form, where is basically unbeatable. His unbeatableness will end when either with an injury or just fatigue from the grind. And he'll have to start the cycle from the beginning. This is just how Rafa is.
The reason the above paragraph is important in assessing his chances at winning this tournament, is that Rafa has a pretty pedestrian draw. Check out his quadrant and find somebody who has a chance of beating him? Youzhny? No. Roddick? No. Ferrer? No.
So what will happen is that Rafa will keep getting better with each match, and then after he beats Ferrer in a 4-set match to get to the semifinals, "emo Rafa" will have been completely replaced by "confident Rafa".
3. Mardy Fish:
Fish and Federer are in the same quadrant. If they end up meeting in the quarters, who do you think wins? If you answered Federer, you are operating on the assumption that his form will have improved by the time that match takes place. Because if Fish had played Federer at any point this summer, the evidence points to the conclusion that he would have won.
I really like the way Fish is playing right now, and so I predict he will make it to the semi's. But once there, he will likely be matched up against a not-so-shabby opponent by the name of Novak. Fish and Novak recently played in the Montreal final, and Fish showed that he can play with the Djoker. By no means was he outclassed, and indeed right up until the very end, Fish was in a position to win the match. If they end up playing again in the Semis, I definitely give Fish a decent chance of winning. To be clear, I give Djokovic much better chances of winning, but a Fish victory would not be shocking to me. To put it another way, at present form, Fish would beat Djokovic twice for every 9 matches they played. Djokovic prevails 7-2 in a best of 9 series.
4. Andy Murray:
I know. I know. But he's in good form, and the most dangerous guy in his quadrant is Delpo. I mentioned before how good Delpo is on hard courts when he is in top form, but he is just SO FAR away from top form right now that I think it would be unreasonable to conclude that he is going to be able to get there in 4 matches.
Good form though Murray may be in, think about this for a second. Or, rather, just do a little exercise with me. Close your eyes and then picture in your imagination Andy Murray beating Rafa Nadal in a grand slam semifinal. ::waiting 5 seconds::
You couldn't do it could you? I couldn't. I mean, I could for a second, but the scene looked so not believable that I started giggling. Poor Andy Murray.
5. Delpo:
See the Andy Murray section above, but assume Delpo was able to pull out a win. He would likely have Rafa in the semifinals, and at that point would be bursting with confidence. He would have a decent -- or maybe even good -- chance of winning that match. From there, we would be able to say that he is indeed at top form, and we would likely be seeing a lot of that punishing punishing Delpo forehand where it appears that the ball has been shot out of a damn cannon.
I'm not picking Delpo, but I can't rule him out because he's got that punchers chance.
6. Roger Federer:
I'm putting him this low, not because I think he is the 6th best player in the world, but because he already upset Djokovic this year by playing his best tennis of the year and it isn't happening again. Nobody's beating Djokovic twice this year. Mark that down.
That covers it. Don't talk yourself into anybody else, and I wouldn't even talk myself into Federer if I were you.
In response to the question posted in Mphs_blues thread, here goes: if it were even money, I would take the field over Djokovic. But Djokovic is definitely the heavy favorite.
My pick: Djokovic
