2012 GOP Nomination

#503
#503
The head to head polls are more interesting, and in the key states. Ohio, for example, was Gingrich 43, Obama 42, which is within MOE.

I'm not sure what to make of something like that. Is it good news for Newt in that he is one point ahead of the sitting POTUS? Or is it good news for Obama that the guy that has surged to the lead of the GOP after weeks of free advertising is only one point ahead when Obama hasn't spent any of his billion yet?

Both, I suppose.
 
#505
#505
lawgator1 said:
The head to head polls are more interesting, and in the key states. Ohio, for example, was Gingrich 43, Obama 42, which is within MOE.

I'm not sure what to make of something like that. Is it good news for Newt in that he is one point ahead of the sitting POTUS? Or is it good news for Obama that the guy that has surged to the lead of the GOP after weeks of free advertising is only one point ahead when Obama hasn't spent any of his billion yet?

Both, I suppose.
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Probably good for Newt, because he doesn't have the backing of the entire GOP yet. However, I am convinced Newt is no improvement over Obama. And John Bolton as the SoS? **** that.

edit: Actually yes, I'm sure, I would vote for Obama rather than see John Bolton as a Secretary of War.
 
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#506
#506
lawgator1 said:
The head to head polls are more interesting, and in the key states. Ohio, for example, was Gingrich 43, Obama 42, which is within MOE.

I'm not sure what to make of something like that. Is it good news for Newt in that he is one point ahead of the sitting POTUS? Or is it good news for Obama that the guy that has surged to the lead of the GOP after weeks of free advertising is only one point ahead when Obama hasn't spent any of his billion yet?

Both, I suppose.
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As I've said before - the most important number is that sub-50% for Obama. He is at historic lows for an incumbent seeking reelection.

The Rasmussen generic R number of 49 - 41 is very bad news for Obama but until this number is repeated for a while I don't think the spread is real.

Both sets of numbers indicate a populace that is overall dissatisfied with Obama and looking for an alternative.
 
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#507
#507
I'd still vote for Cain. Things seem to work better when the Pres is looking chicks to screw....as opposed to trying to screw us all.
 
#510
#510
You guys put way to much emphasis on political polls in general. Especially hypothetical match-up polls this far out from the election.
 
#511
#511
lawgator1 said:
The head to head polls are more interesting, and in the key states. Ohio, for example, was Gingrich 43, Obama 42, which is within MOE.

I'm not sure what to make of something like that. Is it good news for Newt in that he is one point ahead of the sitting POTUS? Or is it good news for Obama that the guy that has surged to the lead of the GOP after weeks of free advertising is only one point ahead when Obama hasn't spent any of his billion yet?

Both, I suppose.
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I don't think an incumbent President of all people can chalk up an opponent polling well to free advertising.
 
#512
#512
PKT_VOL said:
You guys put way to much emphasis on political polls in general. Especially hypothetical match-up polls this far out from the election.
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That's why the number of interest is the Obama support number - it is consistently in the mid-forties regardless of opponent (specific or general).

If you listen to poll watchers, they point to this as the most relevant number.

Of course things can change but it will take:

1) major improvement in the economy and/or
2) major scandal with eventual opponent

to change the support deficit for Obama.
 
#513
#513
volinbham said:
That's why the number of interest is the Obama support number - it is consistently in the mid-forties regardless of opponent (specific or general).

If you listen to poll watchers, they point to this as the most relevant number.

Of course things can change but it will take:

1) major improvement in the economy and/or
2) major scandal with eventual opponent

to change the support deficit for Obama.
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Solid post. I agree that the support or disapproval number is the most important statistic. Depends on which presidential election expert or statistician you talk to. The biggest factor in any presidential election is the economy. As the Ragin' Cajun so eloquently stated "It's the economy stupid!"

I disagree about a major scandal. This administration has been straight teflon on scandalous behavior thus far. It would have to be a fairly egregious, undeniable scandal to cause him any sort of trouble. Judging from the Fast and the Furious scandal, he has nothing to worry about. The only thing he hasn't been able to shake is the economic woes of the country.
 
#514
#514
I'm waiting for the Occupy movement to call Obama out on the billion dollars he's raising for his campaign rather than actually being the president of this country. Aren't the Occupiers entitled to some of that coin?
 
#515
#515
dreVol said:
I'm waiting for the Occupy movement to call Obama out on the billion dollars he's raising for his campaign rather than actually being the president of this country. Aren't the Occupiers entitled to some of that coin?
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I thought they were the ones who were giving him the coin?
 
#520
#520
dreVol said:
I'm waiting for the Occupy movement to call Obama out on the billion dollars he's raising for his campaign rather than actually being the president of this country. Aren't the Occupiers entitled to some of that coin?
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not sure I've ever seen a group more manipulated since Jim Jones poured Kool-aid.
 
#522
#522
KiffinKiller said:
I'm the devil. she must have excellent pain tolerance.
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Haha. I will say, the reason I asked is because the love the white meat over here. They would kill to have a white husband and live in America. Thus far, I have seen quite a few fugly white guys come over here to pick up beautiful women. You would have no problem picking yourself up a mail order bride. I turn down advances everyday.
 
#523
#523
PKT_VOL said:
Haha. I will say, the reason I asked is because the love the white meat over here. They would kill to have a white husband and live in America. Thus far, I have seen quite a few fugly white guys come over here to pick up beautiful women. You would have no problem picking yourself up a mail order bride. I turn down advances everyday.
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i've heard its the same in China. Might have to visit.
 
#524
#524
Somewhat relevant, and I lol'd

CtUrR.jpg
 
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