2012 liberty bowl

#27
#27
VolFan4Life87 said:
I wish the "negavol" term would've gone away with Dooley. We all just want to win, and some of us are legitimately cynical because UT has sucked for quite awhile now. Jones has done an excellent job uniting the fan base under the rise to the top banner, lets let the negavols term go by the wayside, I say. I don't think there's anyone that doesn't support Jones at this point.
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There is no such thing as legitimate cynicism.
 
#28
#28
Vol4life25 said:
It was Vandy......I don't see why people use this as a bragging tool for Butch.


That's like bragging about beating up the handicap kid.
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I dont like it, but vandy can play Franklin can coach and as long as he is there we will have our hands full.:eek:hmy:
 
#29
#29
Jones has never coached as much talent as he has on his first UT team. In fact, not even close. There are more players on this team that will be in the draft next year than the total he's coached to date. He beat Vandy with a team that had less talent with Vandy. I am hopeful about what he might do with a team that has more talent than Vandy.
 
#30
#30
99gator said:
my point was simple.

butch jones is not wile e. coyote, super genius. he'll win when he has better players. when he doesn't have better players, derek dooley can beat him.
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That's a pretty black and white statement. He didn't have better talent against Vandy, and the gap was enormous at that time between Dooley's Vols and Butch's Bearcats.
 
#31
#31
I watch the game on youtube. Focused mainly on the OL play.

A. Might be that UC didn't have the heft we have on the OL. But they did just a so so job blocking. They did manage to bunch up the opposition into gridlock often enough. However, it seemed easy to get around the edges of the OL. I hope we don't pay the huge price of letting Pittman go. I just wasn't too impressed with the UC front OL. But then again, they did play an SEC team in this bowl so maybe that was a factor.

The nice thing was the OL guys did often enough stay in front of their man. The bad thing was it seemed they got pushed back a lot. The good thing is it was rare to see a lineman just quit. Another good thing was they seem to fall down on their man if he falls, thereby taking him out of the play. Hopefully, our OL coaches don't abandon or grossly change the blocking technique to the point our OL is no longer effective as blockers. Oh, one more thing is the UC OL did seem to run block pretty well, especially on sweeps. Not so good straight ahead. I do think that if anyone of the following get past the line of scrimmage on a sweep, he's gone: Neal, Lane, Pig, or Young. Actually, I think Neal would be caught down field but not so easy to bring to the ground.

So once again, I hope what I saw with the UC line was merely the fact they faced a heftier DL than they usually saw. Rather than faulty blocking technique.
 
#34
#34
WoodsmanVol said:
I watch the game on youtube. Focused mainly on the OL play.

A. Might be that UC didn't have the heft we have on the OL. But they did just a so so job blocking. They did manage to bunch up the opposition into gridlock often enough. However, it seemed easy to get around the edges of the OL. I hope we don't pay the huge price of letting Pittman go. I just wasn't too impressed with the UC front OL. But then again, they did play an SEC team in this bowl so maybe that was a factor.

The nice thing was the OL guys did often enough stay in front of their man. The bad thing was it seemed they got pushed back a lot. The good thing is it was rare to see a lineman just quit. Another good thing was they seem to fall down on their man if he falls, thereby taking him out of the play. Hopefully, our OL coaches don't abandon or grossly change the blocking technique to the point our OL is no longer effective as blockers. Oh, one more thing is the UC OL did seem to run block pretty well, especially on sweeps. Not so good straight ahead. I do think that if anyone of the following get past the line of scrimmage on a sweep, he's gone: Neal, Lane, Pig, or Young. Actually, I think Neal would be caught down field but not so easy to bring to the ground.

So once again, I hope what I saw with the UC line was merely the fact they faced a heftier DL than they usually saw. Rather than faulty blocking technique.
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You do realize that Neal and CP were the fastest two guys on the roster last year don't you?

Collaros played poorly which made it even harder to run block but they still had about 100 yds more than Vandy allowed on avg that year. They held Bama to 153 and Lattimore to 77 yds and less than 4 ypc. The only other team to go over 200 yds on them was Army.
 
#36
#36
sjt18 said:
Jones has never coached as much talent as he has on his first UT team. In fact, not even close. There are more players on this team that will be in the draft next year than the total he's coached to date. He beat Vandy with a team that had less talent with Vandy. I am hopeful about what he might do with a team that has more talent than Vandy.
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Your first couple sentences are spot on.

Your second to last sentence is a common fallacy, one that I had given into previously.

Butch actually had a somewhat more talented roster at Cincy than Franklin had at Vandy (using rivals recruiting numbers).

The four year averages at the time of the game: Vandy 73, Cincy 58.75. As a further comparison, UT the same year had a four year average of 16.75. So, those numbers go a long way to explaining the blow out loss to Dooley and the win over Franklin.

That isn't to say that Jones doesn't consistently get more out of his team than he should.

At Cincy he beat the following more talented teams:

2012 (Cincy 54.5):
Pitt (46.25);
VaTech (25.25);
South Florirda (50.75);
lost to Toledo (74.25) whom talent indicated that he should have beaten (won 2 more games than he should have).

2011 (Cincy 58.75):
NCSU (50.75);
Louisville (52);
South Florida (52);
Pitt (41.5);
lost to no teams he should have beaten (won 4 more games than he should have).

2010 (Cincy 68.75):
Louisville (55);
Rutgers (37);
but lost to Syracuse (72.75) and UConn (73.7) whom he talent indicated he should have beaten (won as many games as he should have).

To sharpen this point: It should be noted that beyond simply beating the teams that Butch should have, given his latent talent all of his years at Cincy, Butch's actual impact on his talent is roughly 8 talent points. That means that his average is beating a team with 8 points better recruiting (that includes factoring in the disparity between the teams that his talent should have had him beating).

IF he can do that at UT, whose current talent ranking is about 15, then he averages an ability to over-perform at such a magnitude to beat any team with a talent ranking no higher than 7. That means that on our schedule the only games that are historically out of reach are Bama and Florida. It should be noted though that the ceiling for a Jone's based team is beating a team of 29 points higher and losing to a team almost 20 points below. Ultimately that means that Jones is capable of beating anybody on our schedule and losing to everybody in the SEC but Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
 
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#39
#39
As usual, excellent post "Daj." The statistician in me thinks that it would be better to work with means percentages than numbers - it's one thing to be ranked 55 and beat someone 8 points better (i.e., 47 --> ~15% difference) than to transfer that to being ranked 15 and saying you should be able to beat a 7th ranked team (> 50%!). I'm sure I'll get ripped for this post but numbers have always been a beautiful thing to me...
 
#40
#40
99gator said:
after that, you can watch the 2011 tennessee-cincinnati game.
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Not even worthy of comparison. Regardless of whether it was Dooley or Nick Saban, Cincy didn't have a chance against us. The talent gap between each team was ridiculous. And even though the results in the W/L column didn't reflect it, we actually had a pretty talented team when fully healthy. However, if you wanna talk about doing less with more, maybe we should bring up Will Muschamp. If I recall, Florida was the heavy favorite over Louisville, and the talent gap between each team wasn't even fair. Yet, Louisville gave your Gators a hefty beating even my memory serves me correct. The Dooley years are over. We have a coach that is relentless on and off the field, and the SEC will know who he is. Tennessee football is coming back.
 
#41
#41
CroKev said:
As usual, excellent post "Daj." The statistician in me thinks that it would be better to work with means percentages than numbers - it's one thing to be ranked 55 and beat someone 8 points better (i.e., 47 --> ~15% difference) than to transfer that to being ranked 15 and saying you should be able to beat a 7th ranked team (> 50%!). I'm sure I'll get ripped for this post but numbers have always been a beautiful thing to me...
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I am not saying my methodology for those specifics is correct, it is just a fun way to look at those numbers. I haven't tested them beyond Jones and his three years at Cincy.

You are probably on to something there. Either way there is a connection and a correlation. Sussing out the exact determination is the fun part.

Let me explain my view point though, so you can see where I am coming from. My rankings system is better viewed as a ladder. To view it the way you are saying, the teams would get exponentially tougher, instead of incrementally tougher, the higher up the ladder you go. In fact, I think the higher up the ladder you go, the modifier gets smaller than 1. In other words, the teams ranked in the top 5 are closer together in talent than simply ordering them would project, the teams ranked between 5 and 15 are in the same boat and on and on.

The reason for that is that a roster is 85 people +/- but all that really play is a two deep (basically 44). So the evaluation would then be about which team has the better top 44 players, give or take, whereas an overall team average includes the bottom half who might not ever see the field. The bottom half of the roster will over inflate a team's average like Bama, and under inflate a team's average like Cincy. I hope I am explaining that clearly.
 
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#42
#42
99gator said:
after that, you can watch the 2011 tennessee-cincinnati game.
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You're a douche, 99. I never see you do anything but take little digs at us. Why does that give you such a thrill? I don't even understand why posters on here like you. You're a tool.
 
#44
#44
sjt18 said:
You do realize that Neal and CP were the fastest two guys on the roster last year don't you?

Collaros played poorly which made it even harder to run block but they still had about 100 yds more than Vandy allowed on avg that year. They held Bama to 153 and Lattimore to 77 yds and less than 4 ypc. The only other team to go over 200 yds on them was Army.
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Trust me, I promise to tell you the truth and nothing but the truth. My post was regarding the UC's OL performance. Neal and CP are neither OL-men nor played for the UC. Collaros is a QB not an OL-man, but because that part of your post does relate to my comments however marginally, I'll let it pass. The performance of their defense against VU, Lattimore, and the UA has no relation to my comments which regard the performance of the UC OL. And that's the truth.
 
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#45
#45
AllVolForLife_16 said:
Not even worthy of comparison. Regardless of whether it was Dooley or Nick Saban, Cincy didn't have a chance against us. The talent gap between each team was ridiculous. And even though the results in the W/L column didn't reflect it, we actually had a pretty talented team when fully healthy. However, if you wanna talk about doing less with more, maybe we should bring up Will Muschamp. If I recall, Florida was the heavy favorite over Louisville, and the talent gap between each team wasn't even fair. Yet, Louisville gave your Gators a hefty beating even my memory serves me correct. The Dooley years are over. We have a coach that is relentless on and off the field, and the SEC will know who he is. Tennessee football is coming back.
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Then I guess we should beat Florida this year then, since gee, Louisville did it, and we have more talent than them.
 
#49
#49
2 things I noticed in the video. Solid tackling and some solid officiating by the bowl crew.

The D Line, for smaller players that were not 4-5 star talent, played like champions that day.
 
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