2014 MLB Predictions
- Thread starter zjcvols
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005
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Duffy could struggle. Chen could be in a long relief role. Injuries. I think they'll hold back on Zimmer until he's slated to be in the rotation... doesn't take much to have room. May even have Chen in middle relief role to make room for Yordano, then any long-term injury points to Zimmer if he's having a solid year.
I've always, in the hypothetical, been in favor of "if you're in a playoff race, bring the awesome arms up and use them however you can," but I think they'll try to keep Zimmer on a path for the rotation.
I don't think you should be worried about the bullpen, either. jmo. :hi:
005
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Hosmer has to prove his final 81 games of 2013 were not a fluke. Butler has to drive in runs and stay out of double plays. And, Gordon, thus, must actually protect Butler.
If, on top of that, they can get decent production from Sal and Moose, then they will be in a position to really push in September. If not, they will be dealing Shields and Butler in July.
Vols410
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AL
East: Orioles
Central: Tigers
West: Rangers
Wild Card: Red Sox over A's
NL
East: Braves
Central: Cardinals
West: Dodgers
Wild Card: Nationals over Reds
ALCS
Tigers over Orioles
NLCS
Dodgers over Nationals
WS
Dodgers over Tigers
NL MVP: Joey Votto
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
NL Rookie of the Year: Archie Bradley
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish
AL Rookie of the Year: Masahiro Tanaka
East: Orioles
Central: Tigers
West: Rangers
Wild Card: Red Sox over A's
NL
East: Braves
Central: Cardinals
West: Dodgers
Wild Card: Nationals over Reds
ALCS
Tigers over Orioles
NLCS
Dodgers over Nationals
WS
Dodgers over Tigers
NL MVP: Joey Votto
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
NL Rookie of the Year: Archie Bradley
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish
AL Rookie of the Year: Masahiro Tanaka
005
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Position-by-position: Battles amongst division leaders
NL East:
Contender: Washington Nationals
Defending Champ: Atlanta Braves
C - Ramos (26) v Gattis (27)
Evan Gattis burst onto the scene as an immense power threat in 2013 before struggling in the second half. Are the struggles a sign of solving El Oso, or will his quick hands make the adjustment? He will need to bounce back from second-half struggles in a more demanding, full-time 2014 role.
Wilson Ramos, notoriously good at the plate and bad behind it throughout his career, will have to show two things in 2014: 1) the ability to stay on the field and 2) the ability to control the running game.
Neither walks much
Ramos strikes out less
Gattis has 30-homer potential
Verdict: Push
1B: LaRoche (34) v Freeman (24)
LaRoche, 10 years older than freeman, is coming off of a near-career-worst 2013 season. One must hold back
vomit while gazing at LaRoche's .198/.254/.318 line against LHPs. Still sharp with the glove, LaRoche has to hope for a bounce-back to stay within the same area code as Freddie Freeman.
Freeman, a fan favorite in the ATL, is coming off of a brilliant +5 win season. He held his own against lefties, absolutely crushed righties, and showed great improvement in the second half. The proud owner of a new contract, Braves fans should be glad Chipper Jones was able to rescue him from snowpocalypse.
Freeman was a top 10 bat in 2013.
Adam LaRoche is, by all accounts, and exceedingly nice guy.
Verdict: Braves, big.
2B: Rendon (23) v Uggla (34)
Rendon batted right around the league average in his 2013 rookie campaign. His walk rate did not match what he posted in his minor league career, but one hopes the former Rice standout brings a more polished approach in 2014. He should be acceptable to above average defensively.
Uggla, despite batting only .179 and looking frustratingly silly at times, had the best BB% amongst qualified second basemen. At times worrisome in the infield, Atlanta fans hope DanDan the Bicep Man has another 25+ homer season in the tank.
Rendon was very good against LHPs, needs to improve against righties.
Rendon, despite star pedigree, has a history of injuries, will need to stay on the field.
Verdict: Nationals, potentially big.
3B: Zimmerman (29) v Johnson (29)
Zimmerman's shoulder issues presented themselves in a big way in 2013, causing repeated throwing issues and eventually seeming to get into his head. Difficult, quick plays were as smooth as usual for the former gold-glover, but time to think, plant, and sling led to issues. He was steady at the plate, leaving Nationals fans yearning for a full, healthy season.
Johnson was a pleasant surprise in Atlanta. Aided by a friendly .394 BABIP, he posted his best offensive season. Given that he is not a speedster, the BABIP likely normalizes, placing his numbers closer to his career, still above-average, marks. Has a knack for butchering it at third base, but the contact bat is welcome in the Braves lineup.
Zimmerman claims that shoulder issues are behind him, though he has been held out of a couple spring training games (could be sickness, could be new baby, could be a problem).
Johnson, a popular regression candidate, should still hit well enough to have a positive impact.
These were actually very similar players in 2013.
Verdict: Nationals
SS: Desmond (28) v Simmons (24)
Desmond has been the best shortstop in baseball over recent years, as the standout athleticism has finally partnered with improved fundamentals. He has 45 home runs and 42 steals since the start of 2012 and has played well above average defense to compliment the offensive output. Swinging early and often, Desmond's offense is streaky and at the whim of moody BABIPs. However, his development into a true 5-tool player is awesome.
Simmons, the newly-crowned defensive champion of all the baseballs, is in the lineup to dazzle at shortstop. Any offensive production will be icing on the cake, and that production may come in 2014, as his .247 BABIP is bound to improve and he has already shown considerable pop. I don't think he will match the 2nd-half numbers, but league-average offensive production from that glove makes for an outstanding player.
It is impressive that young Simba is already challenging a breakout star like Desmond. If Desmond remains on top of this battle in 2014, it may be his last year.
Verdict: Push.
LF: Harper (21) v J. Upton (26)
Harper improved on his great rookie campaign in nearly all offensive categories. Walk rate, AVG, OBP, SLG up... K rate down. wRC+ went from 121 in 2012 to 137 in 2013. Exactly what you want to see from a young superstar. Harper did, however, get slightly worse against LHPs. In a spring training interview, he explained that this was partially due to knee troubles, as it caused backside collapse when he tried to square up LHPs. While this may be the case, he looks noticeably uncomfortable when facing strong lefties... and is likely to see plenty of them. Knee trouble behind him, Harper should get closer to league average against LHPs, continue to terrorize RHPs, and run more.
J. Upton got off to a scorching start in 2013 and, despite some months of struggle, hit nearly 30 home runs and utterly destroyed LHPs to the tune of a 174 wRC+ (2nd only to Giancarlo Stanton amongst OFs). Two causes for concern: 1) he stopped running, for whatever reason and 2) his K rate jumped from 19 to 25%.
Upton and Harper are both good baserunners and good athletes. Both have light-tower-power. Both young stars.
Verdict: Nationals, potentially big.
CF: Span (30) v B. Upton (29)
Denard Span plays a brilliant centerfield, posting one of the best UZR scores in 2013 (behind Carlos Gomez). He also provides league-average offense. A good second half brought his season wRC+ to an acceptable 97. Certainly not a star, Span was abused by LHPs a season ago, but did his job, and even ran more than I expected.
There are not many positives to take away from Upton's 2013 campaign. He didn't die. He didn't kill anyone, as far as we know. He eventually killed the spirits of some fans in Atlanta. Always strikeout-prone, his K% jumped from 27 to 34. Many do expect to see improvements, though. "He can't be that bad again, can he?" I do not think he can, and increased success with the bat will allow his rather attractive stolen base and base-running abilities to play up like in years past. Tools = hope.
Verdict: Nationals, but a push would not shock most.
RF: Werth (34) v Heyward (24)
Werth's bat was undeniably alive in 2013. He posted a 160 wRC+, besting the likes of Votto, Goldschmidt, and McCutchen. He typically looks completely average in the field, but, unsurprisingly, the advanced metrics show that the aging Werth struggles mightily in the outfield. He'll hit, he'll steal some bases, and he'll likely have a couple of stints on the DL. Is what it is.
Jason Heyward is right up near the top of the best defensive RFs in baseball. Good enough to play center, he gets to everything. Ks went down, walks went up from 2012 to 2013. Healthy, he could post another 20-20 campaign. He stole 2 bases and was caught 4 times in 2013, but those numbers could be a product of discomfort from injury.
Werth, despite a great 2013, saw his K% rise. Bad sign for an already older player. I worry the cliff may be coming.
Verdict: Braves, potentially big.
Bench:
McLouth, Hairston, Espinosa, Lobaton, Moore
v
Laird, Doumit, Pena, Constanza, Schafer
Verdict: Nationals
McLouth is one of the best extra OFs in baseball, and actually forms a nice platoon with Hairston when Werth is on the DL.
Espinosa can play the middle infield positions at an elite level and also can't hit a lick.
Moore has the potential to be a good bat against LHPs when LaRoche is sitting on his rear.
Rotations
Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Fister, 5th
v
Minor, Teheran, Santana, Beachy, Wood
Verdict: Nationals.
The Santana addition is an important move. The Fister addition is a better move.
Braves always do well with pitchers and have some great defenders, so it is no surprise that Santana was glad to become a Brave.
Strasburg has superstar potential. Minor and Teheran have the potential to be right there, maybe a tick below.
The gap isn't large, even with Medlen's injury, which calls for a tip of the cap to Atlanta.
Bullpen:
Soriano, Clippard, Storen, Blevins
v
Kimbrel, Carpenter, Avilan, Walden
Verdict: Braves
Craig Kimbrel makes Atlanta's bullpen special. He provides the difference.
Bounce-back from Storen is possible. So is regression from Clip.
Nationals addressed the LHRP need.
Braves will miss EOF and Venters.
Totals:
Push: C, SS (2)
Contender: 2B, 3B, LF, CF, Rotation, Bench (6)
Champion: 1B, RF, Bullpen (3)
Things to consider:
Zimmerman will take LaRoche's at-bats against LHPs, moving Rendon to 3rd and leaving the Nationals in need of Espinosa's bat. This will be a great lineup defensively.
Uggla could be replaced, as the Braves will not endure another season of such struggles.
NL East:
Contender: Washington Nationals
Defending Champ: Atlanta Braves
C - Ramos (26) v Gattis (27)
Evan Gattis burst onto the scene as an immense power threat in 2013 before struggling in the second half. Are the struggles a sign of solving El Oso, or will his quick hands make the adjustment? He will need to bounce back from second-half struggles in a more demanding, full-time 2014 role.
Wilson Ramos, notoriously good at the plate and bad behind it throughout his career, will have to show two things in 2014: 1) the ability to stay on the field and 2) the ability to control the running game.
Neither walks much
Ramos strikes out less
Gattis has 30-homer potential
Verdict: Push
1B: LaRoche (34) v Freeman (24)
LaRoche, 10 years older than freeman, is coming off of a near-career-worst 2013 season. One must hold back
vomit while gazing at LaRoche's .198/.254/.318 line against LHPs. Still sharp with the glove, LaRoche has to hope for a bounce-back to stay within the same area code as Freddie Freeman.
Freeman, a fan favorite in the ATL, is coming off of a brilliant +5 win season. He held his own against lefties, absolutely crushed righties, and showed great improvement in the second half. The proud owner of a new contract, Braves fans should be glad Chipper Jones was able to rescue him from snowpocalypse.
Freeman was a top 10 bat in 2013.
Adam LaRoche is, by all accounts, and exceedingly nice guy.
Verdict: Braves, big.
2B: Rendon (23) v Uggla (34)
Rendon batted right around the league average in his 2013 rookie campaign. His walk rate did not match what he posted in his minor league career, but one hopes the former Rice standout brings a more polished approach in 2014. He should be acceptable to above average defensively.
Uggla, despite batting only .179 and looking frustratingly silly at times, had the best BB% amongst qualified second basemen. At times worrisome in the infield, Atlanta fans hope DanDan the Bicep Man has another 25+ homer season in the tank.
Rendon was very good against LHPs, needs to improve against righties.
Rendon, despite star pedigree, has a history of injuries, will need to stay on the field.
Verdict: Nationals, potentially big.
3B: Zimmerman (29) v Johnson (29)
Zimmerman's shoulder issues presented themselves in a big way in 2013, causing repeated throwing issues and eventually seeming to get into his head. Difficult, quick plays were as smooth as usual for the former gold-glover, but time to think, plant, and sling led to issues. He was steady at the plate, leaving Nationals fans yearning for a full, healthy season.
Johnson was a pleasant surprise in Atlanta. Aided by a friendly .394 BABIP, he posted his best offensive season. Given that he is not a speedster, the BABIP likely normalizes, placing his numbers closer to his career, still above-average, marks. Has a knack for butchering it at third base, but the contact bat is welcome in the Braves lineup.
Zimmerman claims that shoulder issues are behind him, though he has been held out of a couple spring training games (could be sickness, could be new baby, could be a problem).
Johnson, a popular regression candidate, should still hit well enough to have a positive impact.
These were actually very similar players in 2013.
Verdict: Nationals
SS: Desmond (28) v Simmons (24)
Desmond has been the best shortstop in baseball over recent years, as the standout athleticism has finally partnered with improved fundamentals. He has 45 home runs and 42 steals since the start of 2012 and has played well above average defense to compliment the offensive output. Swinging early and often, Desmond's offense is streaky and at the whim of moody BABIPs. However, his development into a true 5-tool player is awesome.
Simmons, the newly-crowned defensive champion of all the baseballs, is in the lineup to dazzle at shortstop. Any offensive production will be icing on the cake, and that production may come in 2014, as his .247 BABIP is bound to improve and he has already shown considerable pop. I don't think he will match the 2nd-half numbers, but league-average offensive production from that glove makes for an outstanding player.
It is impressive that young Simba is already challenging a breakout star like Desmond. If Desmond remains on top of this battle in 2014, it may be his last year.
Verdict: Push.
LF: Harper (21) v J. Upton (26)
Harper improved on his great rookie campaign in nearly all offensive categories. Walk rate, AVG, OBP, SLG up... K rate down. wRC+ went from 121 in 2012 to 137 in 2013. Exactly what you want to see from a young superstar. Harper did, however, get slightly worse against LHPs. In a spring training interview, he explained that this was partially due to knee troubles, as it caused backside collapse when he tried to square up LHPs. While this may be the case, he looks noticeably uncomfortable when facing strong lefties... and is likely to see plenty of them. Knee trouble behind him, Harper should get closer to league average against LHPs, continue to terrorize RHPs, and run more.
J. Upton got off to a scorching start in 2013 and, despite some months of struggle, hit nearly 30 home runs and utterly destroyed LHPs to the tune of a 174 wRC+ (2nd only to Giancarlo Stanton amongst OFs). Two causes for concern: 1) he stopped running, for whatever reason and 2) his K rate jumped from 19 to 25%.
Upton and Harper are both good baserunners and good athletes. Both have light-tower-power. Both young stars.
Verdict: Nationals, potentially big.
CF: Span (30) v B. Upton (29)
Denard Span plays a brilliant centerfield, posting one of the best UZR scores in 2013 (behind Carlos Gomez). He also provides league-average offense. A good second half brought his season wRC+ to an acceptable 97. Certainly not a star, Span was abused by LHPs a season ago, but did his job, and even ran more than I expected.
There are not many positives to take away from Upton's 2013 campaign. He didn't die. He didn't kill anyone, as far as we know. He eventually killed the spirits of some fans in Atlanta. Always strikeout-prone, his K% jumped from 27 to 34. Many do expect to see improvements, though. "He can't be that bad again, can he?" I do not think he can, and increased success with the bat will allow his rather attractive stolen base and base-running abilities to play up like in years past. Tools = hope.
Verdict: Nationals, but a push would not shock most.
RF: Werth (34) v Heyward (24)
Werth's bat was undeniably alive in 2013. He posted a 160 wRC+, besting the likes of Votto, Goldschmidt, and McCutchen. He typically looks completely average in the field, but, unsurprisingly, the advanced metrics show that the aging Werth struggles mightily in the outfield. He'll hit, he'll steal some bases, and he'll likely have a couple of stints on the DL. Is what it is.
Jason Heyward is right up near the top of the best defensive RFs in baseball. Good enough to play center, he gets to everything. Ks went down, walks went up from 2012 to 2013. Healthy, he could post another 20-20 campaign. He stole 2 bases and was caught 4 times in 2013, but those numbers could be a product of discomfort from injury.
Werth, despite a great 2013, saw his K% rise. Bad sign for an already older player. I worry the cliff may be coming.
Verdict: Braves, potentially big.
Bench:
McLouth, Hairston, Espinosa, Lobaton, Moore
v
Laird, Doumit, Pena, Constanza, Schafer
Verdict: Nationals
McLouth is one of the best extra OFs in baseball, and actually forms a nice platoon with Hairston when Werth is on the DL.
Espinosa can play the middle infield positions at an elite level and also can't hit a lick.
Moore has the potential to be a good bat against LHPs when LaRoche is sitting on his rear.
Rotations
Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Fister, 5th
v
Minor, Teheran, Santana, Beachy, Wood
Verdict: Nationals.
The Santana addition is an important move. The Fister addition is a better move.
Braves always do well with pitchers and have some great defenders, so it is no surprise that Santana was glad to become a Brave.
Strasburg has superstar potential. Minor and Teheran have the potential to be right there, maybe a tick below.
The gap isn't large, even with Medlen's injury, which calls for a tip of the cap to Atlanta.
Bullpen:
Soriano, Clippard, Storen, Blevins
v
Kimbrel, Carpenter, Avilan, Walden
Verdict: Braves
Craig Kimbrel makes Atlanta's bullpen special. He provides the difference.
Bounce-back from Storen is possible. So is regression from Clip.
Nationals addressed the LHRP need.
Braves will miss EOF and Venters.
Totals:
Push: C, SS (2)
Contender: 2B, 3B, LF, CF, Rotation, Bench (6)
Champion: 1B, RF, Bullpen (3)
Things to consider:
Zimmerman will take LaRoche's at-bats against LHPs, moving Rendon to 3rd and leaving the Nationals in need of Espinosa's bat. This will be a great lineup defensively.
Uggla could be replaced, as the Braves will not endure another season of such struggles.
005
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Which roster would you rather have?
Roster X:
C - Posey
1B - Edwin Encarnacion
2B - Altuve
SS - Tulowitzki
3B - Wright
LF - Braun
CF - Trout
RF - CarGo
DH - Bautista
Bench: Mauer, Segura, Reyes, CarGo, Stanton
Pitching:
Felix, Sale, Lee, Harvey, Fernandez
Cashner, Reed, Adams, Bastardo, Santos, Perkins
Roster Y:
C - Molina
1B - Votto
2B - Pedroia
3B - Beltre
SS - Desmond
LF - Upton
CF - McCutchen
RF - Harper
DH: Cabrera
Bench: Longoria, Cano, Andrelton, Davis, McCann
Pitchers:
Kershaw, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Wainwright, Darvish
Uehara, Balfour, Kimbrel, Romo, Jansen, Chapman
Roster X:
C - Posey
1B - Edwin Encarnacion
2B - Altuve
SS - Tulowitzki
3B - Wright
LF - Braun
CF - Trout
RF - CarGo
DH - Bautista
Bench: Mauer, Segura, Reyes, CarGo, Stanton
Pitching:
Felix, Sale, Lee, Harvey, Fernandez
Cashner, Reed, Adams, Bastardo, Santos, Perkins
Roster Y:
C - Molina
1B - Votto
2B - Pedroia
3B - Beltre
SS - Desmond
LF - Upton
CF - McCutchen
RF - Harper
DH: Cabrera
Bench: Longoria, Cano, Andrelton, Davis, McCann
Pitchers:
Kershaw, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Wainwright, Darvish
Uehara, Balfour, Kimbrel, Romo, Jansen, Chapman
UTBasketball2
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005
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Your All AL-East Team for 2014:
C - Brian McCann (NYY, 30):
With a tip of the cap to offensive and defensive force Matt Wieters, I have a feeling McCann has a big year in Yankee Stadium. His lefty splits will be somewhat quelled by Cervelli in part-time duties, and he will get to DH occasionally. Even accounting for not playing a full season, McCann was a good pick up for the Yankees.
1B - Edwin Encarnacion (TOR, 31):
It hurts my soul to leave Crush Davis off of this spot. A few reasons... Firstly, he may make an appearance later. Secondly, it's perfectly fine if last year was a crazy outlier for Davis and he normalizes this season. Edwin's improved approach has led to such great offensive output. He walked (82) more than he struck out (62) in 2013. Davis' large strikeout numbers are traded for absolutely tremendous power, but I think Edwin has a better offensive season.
2B - Dustin Pedroia (BOS, 30):
I find Pedroia to be one of the more fun players to watch in baseball. First to show up, last to leave, and openly cares about leaving it on the field. This makes him a crowd favorite in Boston, as does his performance. Makes great contact and has one of the best gloves in the world at second base. Since his first full season in 2007, only Chase Utley has produced more WAR at the position.
3B - Evan Longoria (TBR, 28):
Even if Manny Machado were healthy, Longoria would be my pick. He, too, leads the position in Wins Above Replacement since his debut season (2008), which makes it scary to think that he may still be able to put it all together for a peak season. Brilliant at the hot corner, beauty to watch when he gets going at the plate. He played 160 games in 2013, and the Rays have to hope for that total again if they are going to win the division.
SS - Xander Bogaerts (BOS, 21):
Risky to pick the young gun over an ultra-talented Jose Reyes and a gold-glover in JJ Hardy, I am betting on Boston to have the division's, and perhaps the league's, most formidable pair up the middle. He will need to continue to show the "adult" approach he displayed in the playoffs, scrutinizing each pitch and showing patience, to have early success. I could be wrong here, and if so, it means that Jose Reyes stayed healthy and took advantage of the last season where he had a chance to be the AL East's best shortstop.
OF - Carlos Beltran (NYY, 36):
It seems Beltran has a reputation for being fragile, but he has only played in less than 140 games 3 times in his brilliant career. The three-year deal may be longer than the Yankees would like, but I think the offense sticks around in 2014, especially in Yankee stadium with DHing as an option. The entire Yankee lineup is 30 or older, so Beltran is one of many veterans fans are counting on. I expect another big year.
OF - Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY, 30):
Brilliant centerfield, terror on the basepaths, and power will only play up in Yankee Stadium. Things are looking good for Ellsbury after leaving Boston for a division rival. He led the majors in stolen bases in 2012 and, amongst those with 20+ steals, was second in SB% (52/56). (Rollins went 22/22). The good things about his skillset will decline in the coming years, but the Yankees will love a healthy Ellsbury.
OF - Jose Bautista (TOR, 33):
If nagging injuries are behind him, I think Bautista is in for a monster 2014. Even with those ailments, Bautista was top 10 amongst MLB outfielders with a 134 wRC+. I expect that production to be closer to the 150-155 wRC+ range. LCF in Toronto ought to prepare itself.
Apologies to:
Crush Davis
Wil Myers
Breakout impact players:
Tanaka
Stroman
Gausman
Hanigan
C - Brian McCann (NYY, 30):
With a tip of the cap to offensive and defensive force Matt Wieters, I have a feeling McCann has a big year in Yankee Stadium. His lefty splits will be somewhat quelled by Cervelli in part-time duties, and he will get to DH occasionally. Even accounting for not playing a full season, McCann was a good pick up for the Yankees.
1B - Edwin Encarnacion (TOR, 31):
It hurts my soul to leave Crush Davis off of this spot. A few reasons... Firstly, he may make an appearance later. Secondly, it's perfectly fine if last year was a crazy outlier for Davis and he normalizes this season. Edwin's improved approach has led to such great offensive output. He walked (82) more than he struck out (62) in 2013. Davis' large strikeout numbers are traded for absolutely tremendous power, but I think Edwin has a better offensive season.
2B - Dustin Pedroia (BOS, 30):
I find Pedroia to be one of the more fun players to watch in baseball. First to show up, last to leave, and openly cares about leaving it on the field. This makes him a crowd favorite in Boston, as does his performance. Makes great contact and has one of the best gloves in the world at second base. Since his first full season in 2007, only Chase Utley has produced more WAR at the position.
3B - Evan Longoria (TBR, 28):
Even if Manny Machado were healthy, Longoria would be my pick. He, too, leads the position in Wins Above Replacement since his debut season (2008), which makes it scary to think that he may still be able to put it all together for a peak season. Brilliant at the hot corner, beauty to watch when he gets going at the plate. He played 160 games in 2013, and the Rays have to hope for that total again if they are going to win the division.
SS - Xander Bogaerts (BOS, 21):
Risky to pick the young gun over an ultra-talented Jose Reyes and a gold-glover in JJ Hardy, I am betting on Boston to have the division's, and perhaps the league's, most formidable pair up the middle. He will need to continue to show the "adult" approach he displayed in the playoffs, scrutinizing each pitch and showing patience, to have early success. I could be wrong here, and if so, it means that Jose Reyes stayed healthy and took advantage of the last season where he had a chance to be the AL East's best shortstop.
OF - Carlos Beltran (NYY, 36):
It seems Beltran has a reputation for being fragile, but he has only played in less than 140 games 3 times in his brilliant career. The three-year deal may be longer than the Yankees would like, but I think the offense sticks around in 2014, especially in Yankee stadium with DHing as an option. The entire Yankee lineup is 30 or older, so Beltran is one of many veterans fans are counting on. I expect another big year.
OF - Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY, 30):
Brilliant centerfield, terror on the basepaths, and power will only play up in Yankee Stadium. Things are looking good for Ellsbury after leaving Boston for a division rival. He led the majors in stolen bases in 2012 and, amongst those with 20+ steals, was second in SB% (52/56). (Rollins went 22/22). The good things about his skillset will decline in the coming years, but the Yankees will love a healthy Ellsbury.
OF - Jose Bautista (TOR, 33):
If nagging injuries are behind him, I think Bautista is in for a monster 2014. Even with those ailments, Bautista was top 10 amongst MLB outfielders with a 134 wRC+. I expect that production to be closer to the 150-155 wRC+ range. LCF in Toronto ought to prepare itself.
Apologies to:
Crush Davis
Wil Myers
Breakout impact players:
Tanaka
Stroman
Gausman
Hanigan
RockyTop411
RIP SweetAsSoda, Captain of the Cheerleaders
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005
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005
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2014 AL East Pitching Rotation of Extreme Like
SP - David Price (TBR, 28):
Price failed to top 200 innings in 2013 for the first time since his rookie campaign, but he continued to perform as the Rays' ace. He posted a career-best and AL-best 1.3 BB/9 rate, and such precise command is important when one considers the 2 mph drop in his average fastball velocity. Another tendency shown by the lefty is increased change up usage. This could also offset some dip in velocity. Lowered velocity, lower strikeouts and lower GB% are causes for caution, but Price has earned the benefit of the doubt. Just ask him. He'll tell you.
SP - Jon Lester (BOS, 30):
Lester's control has improved every single year since 2010. His BB/9 has gone from 3.59/9 in that season to 2.83/9 in 2013. Strikeouts have decreased, but his velocity has remained reasonably constant in all of those seasons. He has always been a favorite of mine. I have a soft-spot for the cancer survivor aspect and still find his no-no after the comeback trail was complete to be one of the best moments in recent memory. He works slowly and if the command is off he can be a chore to watch, but I remain a fan.
SP - Alex Cobb (TBR, 26):
Cobb had an equally great and harrowing 2013 season. He was having the Shields-like outbreak many predicted before taking a liner off of the head. In 143 innings, he struck out 8.41 per 9 and posted 2.4 WAR. He posted a 2.76 ERA in those innings, and while he may not keep that up due to a fortunate strand rate, a full season will provide great value and an ERA in the low-three range.
SP - Kevin Gausman (BAL, 23):
Gausman took his licks as a rookie in 2013. He was bitten badly by the home-run bug which led to a 5.66 ERA. However, his xFIP was 3.04, he struck out 9.25 per 9, and only walked 2.45 per 9. Gausman throws absolute fuel, averaging 96 mph on his fastball in 2013. He is not slated to be in the Orioles' rotation to begin the season, but I believe he will be their most impressive starting pitcher.
SP - Masahiro Tanaka (NYY, 25):
ZiPS projections absolutely love Tanaka in 2014, projecting him to post 5.1 WAR, strike out 8.81/9 and walk 1.65/9. A couple of positives: Important in Yankee Stadium, he should produce impressive ground ball rates with a brilliant splitter. He also has a great defensive outfield. Granted, there is a negative: Derek Jeter's farewell tour will include farewells to many would-be ground ball outs. I don't know the Japanese language well enough to effectively curse a Yankee legend, but I have a feeling Tanaka does.
Two intriguing starters, two fun relievers:
Ivan Nova (27)
It is easy to moan and groan about Yankee hype, Yankee success, and Yankees, in general. However, I respect a young pitcher who took a beating in a major way on a major stage, worked on and trusted his stuff, and broke out. Maybe he regresses in 2014. But I am very glad he found success.
Felix Doubront (26)
I have a thing for lefties with bad command. I'm not in therapy, but I am not opposed to therapy.
Sergio Santos (30)
I think he closes. I think Stroman waits a bit longer than some expect.
Ryan Webb (28)
Reliever Tommy Hunter throws gas. Any-role Tommy Hunter cannot get lefties out. They knocked him around to the tune of a .294/.322/.535 line in 2013. They should absolutely utilize Hunter, but any regression against RHPs or bad luck in general will leave the closer role up for grabs.
Closer: Koji Uehara (BOS, 38):
Who has two thumbs and was the best reliever in baseball in 2013? Uehara went absolutely nutty last season, with an 11.22 K/BB ratio. According to MLB Play Index, Koji has posted three straight seasons of under 6 H/9 and under 1.5 BB/9. No other pitcher has three such seasons.
74.1 innings. 9 earned runs. 9 walks. Sometimes you just gotta :hi::hi:
SP - David Price (TBR, 28):
Price failed to top 200 innings in 2013 for the first time since his rookie campaign, but he continued to perform as the Rays' ace. He posted a career-best and AL-best 1.3 BB/9 rate, and such precise command is important when one considers the 2 mph drop in his average fastball velocity. Another tendency shown by the lefty is increased change up usage. This could also offset some dip in velocity. Lowered velocity, lower strikeouts and lower GB% are causes for caution, but Price has earned the benefit of the doubt. Just ask him. He'll tell you.
SP - Jon Lester (BOS, 30):
Lester's control has improved every single year since 2010. His BB/9 has gone from 3.59/9 in that season to 2.83/9 in 2013. Strikeouts have decreased, but his velocity has remained reasonably constant in all of those seasons. He has always been a favorite of mine. I have a soft-spot for the cancer survivor aspect and still find his no-no after the comeback trail was complete to be one of the best moments in recent memory. He works slowly and if the command is off he can be a chore to watch, but I remain a fan.
SP - Alex Cobb (TBR, 26):
Cobb had an equally great and harrowing 2013 season. He was having the Shields-like outbreak many predicted before taking a liner off of the head. In 143 innings, he struck out 8.41 per 9 and posted 2.4 WAR. He posted a 2.76 ERA in those innings, and while he may not keep that up due to a fortunate strand rate, a full season will provide great value and an ERA in the low-three range.
SP - Kevin Gausman (BAL, 23):
Gausman took his licks as a rookie in 2013. He was bitten badly by the home-run bug which led to a 5.66 ERA. However, his xFIP was 3.04, he struck out 9.25 per 9, and only walked 2.45 per 9. Gausman throws absolute fuel, averaging 96 mph on his fastball in 2013. He is not slated to be in the Orioles' rotation to begin the season, but I believe he will be their most impressive starting pitcher.
SP - Masahiro Tanaka (NYY, 25):
ZiPS projections absolutely love Tanaka in 2014, projecting him to post 5.1 WAR, strike out 8.81/9 and walk 1.65/9. A couple of positives: Important in Yankee Stadium, he should produce impressive ground ball rates with a brilliant splitter. He also has a great defensive outfield. Granted, there is a negative: Derek Jeter's farewell tour will include farewells to many would-be ground ball outs. I don't know the Japanese language well enough to effectively curse a Yankee legend, but I have a feeling Tanaka does.
Two intriguing starters, two fun relievers:
Ivan Nova (27)
It is easy to moan and groan about Yankee hype, Yankee success, and Yankees, in general. However, I respect a young pitcher who took a beating in a major way on a major stage, worked on and trusted his stuff, and broke out. Maybe he regresses in 2014. But I am very glad he found success.
Felix Doubront (26)
I have a thing for lefties with bad command. I'm not in therapy, but I am not opposed to therapy.
Sergio Santos (30)
I think he closes. I think Stroman waits a bit longer than some expect.
Ryan Webb (28)
Reliever Tommy Hunter throws gas. Any-role Tommy Hunter cannot get lefties out. They knocked him around to the tune of a .294/.322/.535 line in 2013. They should absolutely utilize Hunter, but any regression against RHPs or bad luck in general will leave the closer role up for grabs.
Closer: Koji Uehara (BOS, 38):
Who has two thumbs and was the best reliever in baseball in 2013? Uehara went absolutely nutty last season, with an 11.22 K/BB ratio. According to MLB Play Index, Koji has posted three straight seasons of under 6 H/9 and under 1.5 BB/9. No other pitcher has three such seasons.
74.1 innings. 9 earned runs. 9 walks. Sometimes you just gotta :hi::hi:
volfanbill
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firestorm
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The cubs win more than 80 games and make the playoffs as the 2nd wildcard.
The cardinals get eliminated in the first round preventing them for reaching the World Series.
Derek Jeter doesn't hit more than 48 home runs in his final season.
The Baltimore orioles win more than 90 games plus finally return to the playoffs as a wildcard.
The cardinals get eliminated in the first round preventing them for reaching the World Series.
Derek Jeter doesn't hit more than 48 home runs in his final season.
The Baltimore orioles win more than 90 games plus finally return to the playoffs as a wildcard.
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