2014 Season Prediction

[Doyle Hargraves]

I have all my teeth.

.

Ha!
You can't afford store bought!

 

[sjt18]

No, he will still be here in 2016.

Now, lots of UT fans will be wailing and crying about the season. But people in the areas that have an impact on who is coaching totally understand how far this program needs to go to compete in this conference. Will take a couple more recruiting classes like this 2014 class..

40 of the 85 players on the roster this fall have NEVER set foot on a division one football field in a game. then add 19 sophomores to that number. 59 of the 85 are limited to zero experience.

very hard to compete in the SEC with those numbers

The problem with that is the assumption that he gets "a couple more recruiting classes like this 2014 class" without success on the field. A 5-7 season this fall will make it a very difficult proposition for the '15 class. It becomes pretty near impossible to repeat that kind of recruiting effort in '16 without a major turn. Some of the current commits and interested players will look to the "hot programs" and coaches. They won't get very much interest at all from '16 recruits early without winning.

That, not some bias against Jones, is why I don't believe he survives without getting wins very soon. It is why I thought he NEEDED 7 or at least 6 wins in '13. You don't win without players and you don't get players unless they think the coach is a winner.

It may not be "reasonable" but I believe it is "reality" and why Jones MUST be not just a very good coach but an elite coach to make it at UT.

 

[LWSVOL]

The problem with that is the assumption that he gets "a couple more recruiting classes like this 2014 class" without success on the field. A 5-7 season this fall will make it a very difficult proposition for the '15 class. It becomes pretty near impossible to repeat that kind of recruiting effort in '16 without a major turn. Some of the current commits and interested players will look to the "hot programs" and coaches. They won't get very much interest at all from '16 recruits early without winning.

That, not some bias against Jones, is why I don't believe he survives without getting wins very soon. It is why I thought he NEEDED 7 or at least 6 wins in '13. You don't win without players and you don't get players unless they think the coach is a winner.

It may not be "reasonable" but I believe it is "reality" and why Jones MUST be not just a very good coach but an elite coach to make it at UT.

we both are basing opinions on assumptions.

guess we will see what the outcome becomes

 

[sjt18]

we both are basing opinions on assumptions.

guess we will see what the outcome becomes

I am only assuming that history will repeat itself. Is there any coach out there that has began his tenure with two 5-7 seasons and continued to land top 10 recruiting classes?

I guess there is the possibility that those in power will tolerate years of losing and empty stands in the hopes that he'll become Pinkel/Beamer in 7-10 years. But I suspect they won't and doubt the program can afford it without cutting resources back.

 

[Rockytoptalker]

I really think we're due to beat UGA again one of these days. The past three years have all been close games, with them getting progressively closer each and every time. And plus, this year, they don't have Aaron Murray. We could just as easily win that game as lose it IMO.

 

[LWSVOL]

I am only assuming that history will repeat itself. Is there any coach out there that has began his tenure with two 5-7 seasons and continued to land top 10 recruiting classes?

I guess there is the possibility that those in power will tolerate years of losing and empty stands in the hopes that he'll become Pinkel/Beamer in 7-10 years. But I suspect they won't and doubt the program can afford it without cutting resources back.

I don't believe they would tolerate years of losing with CBJ. He should track to 7 or so wins in 15 and then to 9 or so in 16. If not My opinion is the heat would step up.

5 or 6 this year and 5 or 6 in 2015 could be terminal.. tracking toward competing for the east though should give him time

I just believe the expectations for this year when roster is at 70% freshman and sophomores should not be very great

 

[LotteryPick]

I am only assuming that history will repeat itself. Is there any coach out there that has began his tenure with two 5-7 seasons and continued to land top 10 recruiting classes?

I guess there is the possibility that those in power will tolerate years of losing and empty stands in the hopes that he'll become Pinkel/Beamer in 7-10 years. But I suspect they won't and doubt the program can afford it without cutting resources back.

After several seasons without a bowl, a massive crowd showed up in 20 degree weather for a Vandy game.

You're severely underestimating this fanbase's ability to fill the stands. "Empty stands" won't happen, regardless of season.

 

[GreyhoundMan]

Realistically, seven wins next year would be pretty good. But hey, if you can't be optimistic about the Vols this time of year, when are you going to be optimistic?

 

[UTodd01]

2 more recruiting classes like this one and it would be hard for Brad Scott to not have success.

I think we make the playoffs in '15 and win the whole shabang in '16.

Next year? 8 or 9 wins is the ceiling.

 

[sjt18]

I don't believe they would tolerate years of losing with CBJ. He should track to 7 or so wins in 15 and then to 9 or so in 16. If not My opinion is the heat would step up.

5 or 6 this year and 5 or 6 in 2015 could be terminal.. tracking toward competing for the east though should give him time

I just believe the expectations for this year when roster is at 70% freshman and sophomores should not be very great

I don't see 6 wins or even 7 as "great" if they are the right staff. At some point, the impact of their coaching should be reflected in results on the field. If they are elite, championship caliber coaches... should there not come a point where it shows in players playing better than you might expect them to?

If they only win 7 in '15 then IMO they are not the right staff. That will be a team made up of players chosen and developed and coached by this staff. If talent is an excuse... then it will be one of their own creation. Likewise with "experience" and development and depth.

But then again I didn't think 6 or 7 wins with a senior laden team was really that great of an expectation....

 

[sjt18]

After several seasons without a bowl, a massive crowd showed up in 20 degree weather for a Vandy game.

You're severely underestimating this fanbase's ability to fill the stands. "Empty stands" won't happen, regardless of season.

People stopped showing up when Dooley was there and losing. I have seen recent proof that I am not underestimating anything. All of us were excited by the new "era" of UT football. That Vandy game meant something too. It was a showdown against a loudmouth coach and his upstarts to make the first bowl game in a few years. More losing will bring that disappointment back to the front very quickly.

It is all hugs and kisses right now. People are excited by Jones and his recruiting. Most seem to be more than willing to forgive '13 including some pretty subpar coaching at times. That will fade very quickly if the losing continues... and ESPECIALLY as the "no talent/we're slow" excuses can no longer be made.

 

[sjt18]

Realistically, seven wins next year would be pretty good. But hey, if you can't be optimistic about the Vols this time of year, when are you going to be optimistic?

Agree that 7 would be a very good effort from the staff with this roster. Six would be encouraging. Five would be very disappointing.

At some point, they have to prove they can overachieve.

 

[LotteryPick]

People stopped showing up when Dooley was there and losing. I have seen recent proof that I am not underestimating anything. All of us were excited by the new "era" of UT football. That Vandy game meant something too. It was a showdown against a loudmouth coach and his upstarts to make the first bowl game in a few years. More losing will bring that disappointment back to the front very quickly.

It is all hugs and kisses right now. People are excited by Jones and his recruiting. Most seem to be more than willing to forgive '13 including some pretty subpar coaching at times. That will fade very quickly if the losing continues... and ESPECIALLY as the "no talent/we're slow" excuses can no longer be made.

Attendance didn't take that big of a drop off for Dooley's last season in the bigger games.

Not near the level of what UF was doing last season.

 

[sjt18]

Attendance didn't take that big of a drop off for Dooley's last season in the bigger games.

Not near the level of what UF was doing last season.

I can remember a time when Neyland was full regardless of the opponent. If you want your program to be relevant... that's what you do.

But to the point, how long exactly are you willing to wait if they continue to lose AND to coach as poorly as they did at times in '13. How many blowouts would be acceptable this year? How many losses to less talented teams?

At what point does the guy being paid to be the HC start being responsible for being the HC?

That's not a knock at Jones but rather the attitude that you seem to be conveying (and please forgive me if I am wrong). Jones seems to be completely aware of what I am arguing here and hurrying as fast as he can to bring success on the field.

 

[ficklez]

can somebody tell me if this guy posts here? Oregon=PAC 12 Rejects. - YouTube I'd love to read through his thoughts on the season.

 

[LotteryPick]

I can remember a time when Neyland was full regardless of the opponent. If you want your program to be relevant... that's what you do.

But to the point, how long exactly are you willing to wait if they continue to lose AND to coach as poorly as they did at times in '13. How many blowouts would be acceptable this year? How many losses to less talented teams?

At what point does the guy being paid to be the HC start being responsible for being the HC?

That's not a knock at Jones but rather the attitude that you seem to be conveying (and please forgive me if I am wrong). Jones seems to be completely aware of what I am arguing here and hurrying as fast as he can to bring success on the field.

I've said time. after. time. that there are more problems than talent, and coaching has been one of them.

There's no point in arguing. I (strongly) disagree with you and you disagree with me. That won't change.

 

[LWSVOL]

I don't see 6 wins or even 7 as "great" if they are the right staff. At some point, the impact of their coaching should be reflected in results on the field. If they are elite, championship caliber coaches... should there not come a point where it shows in players playing better than you might expect them to?

If they only win 7 in '15 then IMO they are not the right staff. That will be a team made up of players chosen and developed and coached by this staff. If talent is an excuse... then it will be one of their own creation. Likewise with "experience" and development and depth.

But then again I didn't think 6 or 7 wins with a senior laden team was really that great of an expectation....

its not great. it is rebuilding which is exactly where this program is. Butch said this morning we had 9 players squat 600 pounds. No one on the team could do that last year. Direct result of 6 S&C coaches in the last 5 years.

Yes there is a point where their development should kick in. with the majority of players coming into college, that happens in year 3 on a campus. There are some elite players that develop earlier but the majority of a signing class begins to produce some results in year 3. JMO.

As far as this staff being elite or championship caliber coaches the future will determine that. If you expect that determination to be made in year 2 then you are likely going to be going through a lot of coaches before that elite / championship staff hits in year 2. Don't point to Auburn because that was not a rebuilding of a program.