2014 UT Schedule Analysis....

[gardners_51609]

Schedule analysis: Tennessee Volunteers - ESPN

Final analysis: This schedule starts fast and doesn't let up. It kicks off with two nonconference foes that will test Tennessee's improving defense. The Vols get the spotlight of the SEC Network's first Sunday night game in Week 1 against Utah State, and many college football fans will tune in to see electric Aggies QB Chuckie Keeton return after blowing out his knee last season. It'll be critical for UT to avoid any missteps against Utah State or Arkansas State, because that Week 3 road trip to take on an Oklahoma team picked as the preseason No. 1 by the Sporting News will be a monumental task. The Vols have a bye to catch their breath before two huge rivalry games against Georgia and Florida. By midseason we should know if Tennessee is up for the challenge of a difficult second half. The "other" brutal three-game stretch will be a mini-gauntlet, as UT goes to Ole Miss on Oct. 18, plays Alabama on Oct. 25 in Neyland, and then travels to Columbia, S.C. to face the Gamecocks on Nov. 1. The final quarter of the season (home games against Kentucky and Missouri before a regular-season finale at Vanderbilt) should offer the Vols a better chance to gather momentum for the future. Tennessee fans want progress in 2014, but even if they get what they're looking for, will it translate into wins? More patience will likely be required, which is not what anyone on Rocky Top wants to hear.

 

[Biopsyman]

OK is overacted...Like every year

 

[KBVol]

The over/under win total predictions came out today, I think from a Vegas sports book, not sure the source.....they put UTs total at 4.5. For comparison, Florida's # was 7, Vandy's was 6.

 

[Rocky_Top_Vol13]

I agree with this...




edit* with the first post in this thread

 

[Boca Vol]

It's going to be similar to last season in that how does the team perform in November? Now, no one saw Auburn or Mizzou being as good as they were last season so there never was a let up in the schedule.

This year's November schedule should be a little easier. Will there be anything left in the tank?

 

[1982Alum]

So the key question then is:

Will UT lose 8 games this year for the first time ever?

 

[gardners_51609]

How do you all realistically feel we will do this year?

My best guess is:

Must-wins: Utah State, Arkansas State, Chattanooga, Kentucky and @ Vanderbilt (Projected 5-0)

Swing Games for Bowl Eligibility: Florida, @ Georgia, @ USCe, Mizzou and @ Ole Miss (Projected 1-4)

Most Likely Losses: @ Oklahoma and vs. Alabama (Projected 0-2)

I say we go 6-6 or 7-5...

 

[Crazy Ivan]

OK is overacted...Like every year

I feel much better about the game now. :no:

 

[rickyb712]

Mods please file this away in archives we will win atleast 7 games or i will allow BTO to shave my head bald and stick a Vanderbilt star on it

oh yeah got 2 words for the teams we play this year. Suck It.

 

[TrueOrange]

OK is overacted...Like every year

...huh

 

[daj2576]

Schedule analysis: Tennessee Volunteers - ESPN

People are hyperventilating over Utah State and Arkansas State, why?

Because bowl games, and the records to get there, are touted as meaningful, when in fact they are meaningless. The statistical likelihood is that UT could have done just as well against Utah State's schedule, if not better, than the Aggies did. Conversely, Utah State would have likely done far worse than 5-7 with UT's schedule.

If talent averages predict about 70% of all games played (and they do, actually that number is higher when one team recruits in the top 50 and the other recruits in the bottom 50), then one should only look at Utah State's 2013 schedule versus Tennessee 2013 schedule to see why UT went 5-7, and Utah State won 9.



Here is my explanation:

Using recruiting evaluations as a guide, the mighty Utah State Aggies should have only won 4 games, but they won 9 including a bowl game against Northern Illinois (91). It is a key point that teams that play each other that are both in the bottom 50 tend to have a less stable correlation between talent and wins. this is likely due to the fact that recruiting services are really good at distinguishing between 3 to 5 star players and really mediocre at distinguishing unranked through high two star players (the type of players that Utah State recruits). Similarly, the probability of victory is significantly higher than 70% when a team who recruits in the top 50 plays a team in the bottom 50. Back to last year's Utah State schedule: the best team that they beat, viewed through a talent lens, was no better than 80th (Hawaii). Their worst loss also came against a team ranked about 80th (Fresno State). Importantly, Utah State's average Division 1 caliber win came against an opponent who was roughly ranked 93rd. Their average loss came against a team ranked 48.6.

For comparison, Tennessee should have won 7 games, but won 5. The Vol's best win came against a South Carolina team ranked about 18th using recruiting evaluations, and the worst loss came against a Vandy team ranked about 48th. UT's average Division 1 caliber win was against a team ranked 51, and Tennessee's average loss came against a team ranked 16.6.

In other words, Utah State's best win came against a team ranked 32 rungs below Tennessee's worst loss. Imagine trying to climb a ladder that is missing 32 rungs between what you are capable of on your best day, to what your opponent is capable of on their worst. The challenge of making that leap isn't impossible, but it is highly unlikely.

Or for a little different sort of comparison, Tennessee average loss came against teams that are built like Oregon, Texas A&M, or UCLA (those teams fall around the 16 ranking in class averages) whereas Utah State averaged losing to teams built like Kentucky, Kansas, and North Carolina State.

Admittedly that is last year. Tennessee's roster in 2014 has an explosion of young talent, and Utah State's roster actually fell from 101 to 103. Yes, the Vol's will field a young team in the season opener (see below for change in talent by position group) but Utah State is filling some holes on their roster as well.



EDIT: If you want a look at how Tennessee's talent ranks in the 2014 schedule, here is a chart to illustrate that point.



All games indicated in red are a 70% chance for a loss, and green are a 70% chance of a win. My data shows that as a general rule roughly 80% of teams in the SEC will fall within 2 games of these predicted win/loss matrices.

 

[HuntlandVolinColo]

Chuckie Keeton completes 6 passes to TN secondary!

 

[YankeeVol]

It's Year 2 of the Butch Jones era and time for a restless fan base to see more progress on the field:

Nonconference opponents (with 2013 records)

Aug. 31: Utah State (9-5)
Sept. 6: Arkansas State (8-5)
Sept. 13: at Oklahoma (7-2)
Oct. 11: Chattanooga (8-4)

SEC home games

Oct. 4: Florida
Oct. 25: Alabama
Nov. 15: Kentucky
Nov. 22: Missouri

SEC road games

Sept. 27: at Georgia
Oct. 18: at Ole Miss
Nov. 1: at South Carolina
Nov. 29: at Vanderbilt

Gut-check time: Back in the heydays of both programs, Tennessee and Florida clashed in Week 3 of every season. It was one of those classic SEC rivalries that set the early tone for the East Division. Last season, the teams met in Week 4 for the first time in years. This year, it's Week 5. Things have changed, but more importantly, the tone of the series has shifted as Florida has won nine straight meetings. This has become a bitter pill for the Vols and their fans, so there will be no lack of motivation to end the skid.

Trap game: After their season opener on Sunday, Aug. 31, Jones and Co. will have just five days to prepare for Arkansas State the following Saturday. The Red Wolves, who have been to three straight bowl games, are not a team to take lightly despite their upheaval at head coach (from Hugh Freeze in 2011 to Gus Malzahn in 2012 to Bryan Harsin in 2013 to Blake Anderson in 2014). In 20 years of coaching, Anderson has proven to have a gifted offensive mind.

Telltale stretch: The Vols have two brutal three-game tests that will define their 2014 season. Since this is a program trying to reestablish itself, the first impression will be more important as Tennessee travels to Oklahoma on Sept. 13. UT takes a breather with a bye the next week but then follows with two crucial SEC East battles -- at Georgia on Sept. 27 and home vs. Florida on Oct. 4.

Snoozer: Once that stretch is in the rearview mirror, Tennessee can relax a bit in a home date with FCS foe Chattanooga on Oct. 11. The Mocs are no slouch, having won the Southern Conference in 2013, but this is a team that got trampled last season in its only game against a major-conference FBS foe -- a 49-0 loss to Alabama.

Final analysis: This schedule starts fast and doesn't let up. It kicks off with two nonconference foes that will test Tennessee's improving defense. The Vols get the spotlight of the SEC Network's first Sunday night game in Week 1 against Utah State, and many college football fans will tune in to see electric Aggies QB Chuckie Keeton return after blowing out his knee last season. It'll be critical for UT to avoid any missteps against Utah State or Arkansas State, because that Week 3 road trip to take on an Oklahoma team picked as the preseason No. 1 by the Sporting News will be a monumental task. The Vols have a bye to catch their breath before two huge rivalry games against Georgia and Florida. By midseason we should know if Tennessee is up for the challenge of a difficult second half. The "other" brutal three-game stretch will be a mini-gauntlet, as UT goes to Ole Miss on Oct. 18, plays Alabama on Oct. 25 in Neyland, and then travels to Columbia, S.C. to face the Gamecocks on Nov. 1. The final quarter of the season (home games against Kentucky and Missouri before a regular-season finale at Vanderbilt) should offer the Vols a better chance to gather momentum for the future. Tennessee fans want progress in 2014, but even if they get what they're looking for, will it translate into wins? More patience will likely be required, which is not what anyone on Rocky Top wants to hear.

Pretty fair assessment. Defintely not as easy of a schedule as many seem to think.

Schedule analysis: Tennessee Volunteers - ESPN

 

[GBO97]

The over/under win total predictions came out today, I think from a Vegas sports book, not sure the source.....they put UTs total at 4.5. For comparison, Florida's # was 7, Vandy's was 6.

Vandy's is 6 and ours is 4.5. Lol at Vegas

 

[Vol knight]

Mods please file this away in archives we will win atleast 7 games or i will allow BTO to shave my head bald and stick a Vanderbilt star on it

oh yeah got 2 words for the teams we play this year. Suck It.

 

[Catbone]

People are hyperventilating over Utah State and Arkansas State, why?

Because bowl games, and the records to get there, are touted as meaningful, when in fact they are meaningless. The statistical likelihood is that UT could have done just as well against Utah State's schedule, if not better, than the Aggies did. Conversely, Utah State would have likely done far worse than 5-7 with UT's schedule.

If talent averages predict about 70% of all games played (and they do, actually that number is higher when one team recruits in the top 50 and the other recruits in the bottom 50), then one should only look at Utah State's 2013 schedule versus Tennessee 2013 schedule to see why UT went 5-7, and Utah State won 9.

View attachment 77634

Here is my explanation:

Using recruiting evaluations as a guide, the mighty Utah State Aggies should have only won 4 games, but they won 9 including a bowl game against Northern Illinois (91). It is a key point that teams that play each other that are both in the bottom 50 tend to have a less stable correlation between talent and wins. this is likely due to the fact that recruiting services are really good at distinguishing between 3 to 5 star players and really mediocre at distinguishing unranked through high two star players (the type of players that Utah State recruits). Similarly, the probability of victory is significantly higher than 70% when a team who recruits in the top 50 plays a team in the bottom 50. Back to last year's Utah State schedule: the best team that they beat, viewed through a talent lens, was no better than 80th (Hawaii). Their worst loss also came against a team ranked about 80th (Fresno State). Importantly, Utah State's average Division 1 caliber win came against an opponent who was roughly ranked 93rd. Their average loss came against a team ranked 48.6.

For comparison, Tennessee should have won 7 games, but won 5. The Vol's best win came against a South Carolina team ranked about 18th using recruiting evaluations, and the worst loss came against a Vandy team ranked about 48th. UT's average Division 1 caliber win was against a team ranked 51, and Tennessee's average loss came against a team ranked 16.6.

In other words, Utah State's best win came against a team ranked 32 rungs below Tennessee's worst loss. Imagine trying to climb a ladder that is missing 32 rungs between what you are capable of on your best day, to what your opponent is capable of on their worst. The challenge of making that leap isn't impossible, but it is highly unlikely.

Or for a little different sort of comparison, Tennessee average loss came against teams that are built like Oregon, Texas A&M, or UCLA (those teams fall around the 16 ranking in class averages) whereas Utah State averaged losing to teams built like Kentucky, Kansas, and North Carolina State.

Admittedly that is last year. Tennessee's roster in 2014 has an explosion of young talent, and Utah State's roster actually fell from 101 to 103. Yes, the Vol's will field a young team in the season opener (see below for change in talent by position group) but Utah State is filling some holes on their roster as well.

View attachment 77635

EDIT: If you want a look at how Tennessee's talent ranks in the 2014 schedule, here is a chart to illustrate that point.

View attachment 77638

All games indicated in red are a 70% chance for a loss, and green are a 70% chance of a win. My data shows that as a general rule roughly 80% of teams in the SEC will fall within 2 games of these predicted win/loss matrices.

I find it hard to believe we can win USC, Ole Miss, and Mizzou...

 

[Rudy123]

Schedule analysis: Tennessee Volunteers - ESPN

We pull off a close on against Utah State. This game reminds me of the Air Force game in which we won on the last defensive play of the game. the q.b. ran for a two point play and Mitchell shed the block and tackled the q.b. on the 3 yard line to secure the win. That win was huge because it got us in a fairly good bowl game against Wisconsin.

We will easily beat Arkansas State.


We will easily beat Chattanooga.


We will beat vandy.

We will beat an improved kentucky.

We lose to UGA, USC, Misery, Ole Piss, " O Bama" Florida & Oklahoma

Miss a bowl game again but get the freshmen a year of valuable experience.....

 

[Vol knight]

We pull off a close on against Utah State. This game reminds me of the Air Force game in which we won on the last defensive play of the game. the q.b. ran for a two point play and Mitchell shed the block and tackled the q.b. on the 3 yard line to secure the win. That win was huge because it got us in a fairly good bowl game against Wisconsin.

We will easily beat Arkansas State.


We will easily beat Chattanooga.


We will beat vandy.

We will beat an improved kentucky.

We lose to UGA, USC, Misery, Ole Piss, " O Bama" Florida & Oklahoma

Miss a bowl game again but get the freshmen a year of valuable experience.....

I disagree. I think we will beat Mizzou and go to a bowl.

 

[daj2576]

I find it hard to believe we can win USC, Ole Miss, and Mizzou...

Me too.

And statistically there is only a 34% chance we win all three, similarly there is only a 2% chance that we lose all three.

I think USC is a likely loss as we play at their place and the teams are relatively close in talent. By that same logic Mizzou is likely a win in Neyland. As an extension of that logic, Ole Miss is tough to call as it is at their place but there is a sizable talent gap (regardless of what people think they see, they tend to perform within talent predictions).

I wouldn't be surprised to lose one or more of those games, nor would I be surprised if we offset that by winning a game or two we should lose (most probable upset is Florida as it is in Neyland and they have a coach who is now the head-and-shoulders under-achiever in the SEC). I would be very surprised if Jones under-performs by 2 again this year, especially with a history of over-performance that averages 3 extra wins a season.

 

[Rudy123]

OK is overacted...Like every year

I was talking to Nick Saban just a day or two prior to the bowl game and he told me that he thought that Oklahoma was over rated too.

Guess he was wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Rudy123]

I disagree. I think we will beat Mizzou and go to a bowl.

Man that would be GREAT if you were correct.


I do notice that Misery, USC, Florida & UGA lose quiet a few members of last years team. Too bad we aren't ready to take advantage of that and get us some wins.

I just think that we are starting too many freshmen at key positions. Well, maybe not freshmen but players with no starting experience.....

In 2015, we should be the most improved team in the country. In 2014, I see 5 - 7 but in 2015, I see 9 wins and a bowl win to give us a 10 win season....................

All of the uncertainty for this season will be settled when we begin the 2015 season. Starting 1 & 2 tailbacks, Starting q.b., stronger and more experienced O Line, D Line & D. B's.
Stronger and more confident wide receivers.......

All of this seasons question marks will be exclamation points when 2015 begins............

 

[Catbone]

We pull off a close on against Utah State. This game reminds me of the Air Force game in which we won on the last defensive play of the game. the q.b. ran for a two point play and Mitchell shed the block and tackled the q.b. on the 3 yard line to secure the win. That win was huge because it got us in a fairly good bowl game against Wisconsin.

We will easily beat Arkansas State.


We will easily beat Chattanooga.


We will beat vandy.

We will beat an improved kentucky.

We lose to UGA, USC, Misery, Ole Piss, " O Bama" Florida & Oklahoma

Miss a bowl game again but get the freshmen a year of valuable experience.....

Very possible

 

[titansvolsfaninga]

Man that would be GREAT if you were correct.


I do notice that Misery, USC, Florida & UGA lose quiet a few members of last years team. Too bad we aren't ready to take advantage of that and get us some wins.

I just think that we are starting too many freshmen at key positions. Well, maybe not freshmen but players with no starting experience.....

In 2015, we should be the most improved team in the country. In 2014, I see 5 - 7 but in 2015, I see 9 wins and a bowl win to give us a 10 win season....................

All of the uncertainty for this season will be settled when we begin the 2015 season. Starting 1 & 2 tailbacks, Starting q.b., stronger and more experienced O Line, D Line & D. B's.
Stronger and more confident wide receivers.......

All of this seasons question marks will be exclamation points when 2015 begins............

If Catbone is agreeing with you, you may want to rethink your point of view. IJS TIFWIW IMHO :hi:

 

[KBVol]

Vandy's is 6 and ours is 4.5. Lol at Vegas

I agree. The caveat however is that while Vandy, once again, has the SEC's easiest schedule, UT, once again, has the conference's most difficult.

 

[WilliamDuVOL]

People are hyperventilating over Utah State and Arkansas State, why?

Because bowl games, and the records to get there, are touted as meaningful, when in fact they are meaningless. The statistical likelihood is that UT could have done just as well against Utah State's schedule, if not better, than the Aggies did. Conversely, Utah State would have likely done far worse than 5-7 with UT's schedule.

If talent averages predict about 70% of all games played (and they do, actually that number is higher when one team recruits in the top 50 and the other recruits in the bottom 50), then one should only look at Utah State's 2013 schedule versus Tennessee 2013 schedule to see why UT went 5-7, and Utah State won 9.

View attachment 77634

Here is my explanation:

Using recruiting evaluations as a guide, the mighty Utah State Aggies should have only won 4 games, but they won 9 including a bowl game against Northern Illinois (91). It is a key point that teams that play each other that are both in the bottom 50 tend to have a less stable correlation between talent and wins. this is likely due to the fact that recruiting services are really good at distinguishing between 3 to 5 star players and really mediocre at distinguishing unranked through high two star players (the type of players that Utah State recruits). Similarly, the probability of victory is significantly higher than 70% when a team who recruits in the top 50 plays a team in the bottom 50. Back to last year's Utah State schedule: the best team that they beat, viewed through a talent lens, was no better than 80th (Hawaii). Their worst loss also came against a team ranked about 80th (Fresno State). Importantly, Utah State's average Division 1 caliber win came against an opponent who was roughly ranked 93rd. Their average loss came against a team ranked 48.6.

For comparison, Tennessee should have won 7 games, but won 5. The Vol's best win came against a South Carolina team ranked about 18th using recruiting evaluations, and the worst loss came against a Vandy team ranked about 48th. UT's average Division 1 caliber win was against a team ranked 51, and Tennessee's average loss came against a team ranked 16.6.

In other words, Utah State's best win came against a team ranked 32 rungs below Tennessee's worst loss. Imagine trying to climb a ladder that is missing 32 rungs between what you are capable of on your best day, to what your opponent is capable of on their worst. The challenge of making that leap isn't impossible, but it is highly unlikely.

Or for a little different sort of comparison, Tennessee average loss came against teams that are built like Oregon, Texas A&M, or UCLA (those teams fall around the 16 ranking in class averages) whereas Utah State averaged losing to teams built like Kentucky, Kansas, and North Carolina State.

Admittedly that is last year. Tennessee's roster in 2014 has an explosion of young talent, and Utah State's roster actually fell from 101 to 103. Yes, the Vol's will field a young team in the season opener (see below for change in talent by position group) but Utah State is filling some holes on their roster as well.

View attachment 77635

EDIT: If you want a look at how Tennessee's talent ranks in the 2014 schedule, here is a chart to illustrate that point.

View attachment 77638

All games indicated in red are a 70% chance for a loss, and green are a 70% chance of a win. My data shows that as a general rule roughly 80% of teams in the SEC will fall within 2 games of these predicted win/loss matrices.

Science mother f***er.