2014 UT Schedule Analysis....

[daj2576]

Shorten' it up and I'll bother to read. This is a sports forum, not a seminar where some dude looks down his nose at the audience and lectures about how smart he is.

Check this out, you can benefit:

The Art of Writing for Brevity | The Daily Anchor

Sorry that you haven't enjoyed the conversation. I love talking about this.

Please accept my fullest apologies If you felt left out, belittled, or just that my writing was intolerable.

 

[Volosaurus rex]

Shorten' it up and I'll bother to read. This is a sports forum, not a seminar where some dude looks down his nose at the audience and lectures about how smart he is.

Check this out, you can benefit:

The Art of Writing for Brevity | The Daily Anchor

I agree that brevity is a literary virtue, but excessive reliance upon it can undermine the true hallmarks of great writing: clarity and precision. As an oratorical masterpiece, the “Gettysburg Address” metaphorically compresses verbal power into the space occupied by a black hole. Its eloquence, however, transcends the technical mastery of these more fundamental skills and sets it apart as a true work of art, one that has endured the test of time.

For the record, I have read many of daj2576’s contributions to this forum. He may challenge the reader intellectually, but he is rarely, if ever, condescending, particularly not to fellow Vol fans. The latter trait would be the forte of bamawriter or several of our Lizard visitors.

 

[daj2576]

I agree that brevity is a literary virtue, but excessive reliance upon it can undermine the true hallmarks of great writing: clarity and precision. As an oratorical masterpiece, the “Gettysburg Address” metaphorically compresses verbal power into the space occupied by a black hole. Its eloquence, however, transcends the technical mastery of these more fundamental skills and sets it apart as a true work of art, one that has endured the test of time.

For the record, I have read many of daj2576’s contributions to this forum. He may challenge the reader intellectually, but he is rarely, if ever, condescending, particularly not to fellow Vol fans. The latter trait would be the forte of bamawriter or several of our Lizard visitors.

Thank you, and well put.

 

[Volosaurus rex]

Thank you, and well put.

You really should come over to the Recruiting Forum and offer your contributions to a thread that I just started, one entitled "Which is the greatest recruiting class in the history of Tennessee football?"

 

[KBVol]

That's a helluva lot of homework and mental gymnastics to understand 40 years of butt-whoopings. Do I have to enroll at Princeton to understand 9 straight to those ********?

Even the agreed upon underachieving Muschamp beat the crap out of us two years ago.

By the way, "underachieve" is a perfectly accpetable word, no need to hyphenate it. You can find that word and other accpetable words here: (see: Underachieve | Define Underachieve at Dictionary.com) page 148.)

eace2:

What about "accpetable "? Is that word acceptable? 😁

 

[KBVol]

If you had been paying attention, daj has explained why that is the case. UF has consistently out recruited us and the less talented team, according to his data, doesn't gain any advantage when playing at home.

It is kinda funny. It seems that when our players were bigger, stronger and faster that we won a lot of home games. Curiously, as we've had slower, weaker (eg, nobody on the team who could squat 600lbs the last few yrs), less athletic players, we suddenly lost our homefield advantage and indeed began losing the majority of our games no matter where we play. Wonder if those things are connected.

 

[ChattaTNVol]

Sorry that you haven't enjoyed the conversation. I love talking about this.

Please accept my fullest apologies If you felt left out, belittled, or just that my writing was intolerable.

FTR, I thought the work you did to develop your posts were value added to the discussion. Thanks.

I've done the recruiting analysis myself (it's posted in the RF forum) but one of the issues commonly discussed is attrition and the fact that some teams (ours) may have experienced more than most, particularly in the last 5-6 years. I realize your analysis is intended for simplicity and I know you've already done a lot of work but could you comment on class retention and how that might additionally impact projections for over-or-under performance relative to the norm of 70%. Of course everyone has attrition; I'm just curious as to the impact when a program's attrition is outside the mean for the conference. Intuitively, I would suspect less attrition more often leads to over performance and more attrition vs the mean likely leads to under performance in your model. Valid perception?

 

[tm3]

It isn't like there is some magic to this understanding. The team who recruits better wins significantly more often than not.

This is neither gymnastics, nor voodoo, nor Ivy League academics.

yet where are those from VN who like to argue that having an "elite coach" (X and O, not recruiting) trumps player talent? i want to see their charts and tables ......

congratulations on the baby!

 

[daj2576]

FTR, I thought the work you did to develop your posts were value added to the discussion. Thanks.

I've done the recruiting analysis myself (it's posted in the RF forum) but one of the issues commonly discussed is attrition and the fact that some teams (ours) may have experienced more than most, particularly in the last 5-6 years. I realize your analysis is intended for simplicity and I know you've already done a lot of work but could you comment on class retention and how that might additionally impact projections for over-or-under performance relative to the norm of 70%. Of course everyone has attrition; I'm just curious as to the impact when a program's attrition is outside the mean for the conference. Intuitively, I would suspect less attrition more often leads to over performance and more attrition vs the mean likely leads to under performance in your model. Valid perception?

I think your perception is valid that less attrition would yield better results. The question is really just a matter of scale (attrition likely matters, but how much?).

If without accounting for any attrition, coach effect, home field advantage, or any other factor than talent, one can approach a prediction rate of 70% generally and 90% in title games, then how important can any of those other factors be?

My findings tend to indicate that coaching is the next biggest factor. When you look at any team that performs well above or below talent expectations you begin to find that certain coaches are isolated. That was one of the most shocking things to me about these findings (generally most teams perform to their talent, and the few that don't tend to be touched by a small pool of coaches).

Finally, although I have not done a comprehensive study on attrition, my sample indicates that attrition is actually a very similar range across most major teams. Teams with good talent tend to have transfers (can't get playing time) or players leaving early for NFL, or academic casualties, or discipline casualties at rates within a range that negates attrition as a major factor in my eyes. Yes, Tennessee might be closer to the high attrition range of "normal", but I am not convinced it is freakishly abnormal.

I think that most UT fans believe attrition is much higher because they pay very close attention. Couple that observation with how we fans see historically solid recruiting at UT yields substandard results. It appears logical that attrition would be the culprit, right? Well it might have an impact but looming larger are the fact that Fulmer had a gradual but very real decline in his effect on talent, then Kiff (fired at USC for utter game day negligence) and Dooley (fired by UT for the same). The end result wasn't that UT bled talent at an unusual rate it was that the past decade has had piss poor coaching and more importantly declining recruiting in relation to our major competition. At least that is my take.

 

[daj2576]

yet where are those from VN who like to argue that having an "elite coach" (X and O, not recruiting) trumps player talent? i want to see their charts and tables ......

congratulations on the baby!

Thanks!

I do enjoy discussing this. You've been on board since the very beginning and have offered great input and discussion along the way. I appreciate that immensely.

What frustrates me are those who belittle, mock, ridicule, and name call when they don't like my conclusions. Like you said, where is their data and countless hours spent crunching the numbers and boiling it down to charts/graphs? I'm not suggesting that because I have those that this data or my conclusions are perfect (I am not a statistician or economist). This is the best information that I have available and I feel like fellow Vol fans deserve to have the hope that this all gives me.

Ultimately I would love for someone to take it further or to blow it up with overwhelming counter data. Steel sharpens steel, as they say.

 

[tm3]

What frustrates me are those who belittle, mock, ridicule, and name call when they don't like my conclusions.

that is certainly understandable, and imo is simply the consequence of putting something out for public consumption. some people get emotional when they can't mount a logical argument, and some just have another agenda altogether. ignore them. most here appreciate your work and the contribution that you make to VN.

 

[GBO97]

Thank you! I never thought I would be so excited to be a father, but I am. I've already picked out little UT cheerleader outfits, and the like, for the baby to wear as an infant. My wife is totally on board with that, by the way, which is a testimony to her grace and love of me as a Vol-grad.

I do have to give my wife a ton of credit for her beach body. She is a personal trainer and a yoga instructor, so that balances out her being a gator (somewhat :birgits_giggle. Plus she can do more pushups, pullups and situps than I can. lol

If she's due 1st week of October, how possible is it she's born on UT-UF gameday?

 

[daj2576]

If she's due 1st week of October, how possible is it she's born on UT-UF gameday?

My first prayer is for a healthy baby and mother. That being said, I admit I have fantasized about my baby being born to her Gator mother the day the streak ends.

 

[Volosaurus rex]

And precisely at the moment Tennessee scores the winning touchdown.

 

[ChattaTNVol]

I think your perception is valid that less attrition would yield better results. The question is really just a matter of scale (attrition likely matters, but how much?).

If without accounting for any attrition, coach effect, home field advantage, or any other factor than talent, one can approach a prediction rate of 70% generally and 90% in title games, then how important can any of those other factors be?

My findings tend to indicate that coaching is the next biggest factor. When you look at any team that performs well above or below talent expectations you begin to find that certain coaches are isolated. That was one of the most shocking things to me about these findings (generally most teams perform to their talent, and the few that don't tend to be touched by a small pool of coaches).

Finally, although I have not done a comprehensive study on attrition, my sample indicates that attrition is actually a very similar range across most major teams. Teams with good talent tend to have transfers (can't get playing time) or players leaving early for NFL, or academic casualties, or discipline casualties at rates within a range that negates attrition as a major factor in my eyes. Yes, Tennessee might be closer to the high attrition range of "normal", but I am not convinced it is freakishly abnormal.

I think that most UT fans believe attrition is much higher because they pay very close attention. Couple that observation with how we fans see historically solid recruiting at UT yields substandard results. It appears logical that attrition would be the culprit, right? Well it might have an impact but looming larger are the fact that Fulmer had a gradual but very real decline in his effect on talent, then Kiff (fired at USC for utter game day negligence) and Dooley (fired by UT for the same). The end result wasn't that UT bled talent at an unusual rate it was that the past decade has had piss poor coaching and more importantly declining recruiting in relation to our major competition. At least that is my take.

Thanks for the response.

I think in modeling it's called degrees of freedom. The more we try to add to the number of factors/variables influencing the model the more the model becomes curve fitted to the data and then fails in it's ability to forecast future performance. The fewer variables, generally the more robust the analysis, statistically speaking. Thanks again.

 

[rockytop114]

How do you all realistically feel we will do this year?

My best guess is:

Must-wins: Utah State, Arkansas State, Chattanooga, Kentucky and @ Vanderbilt (Projected 5-0)

Swing Games for Bowl Eligibility: Florida, @ Georgia, @ USCe, Mizzou and @ Ole Miss (Projected 3-1)

Most Likely Losses: @ Oklahoma and vs. Alabama (Projected1-1)

I say we go 10-2...

10-2 for the win ......!!!!!! Boooooooooooooooooom!!!!!!

 

[daj2576]

And precisely at the moment Tennessee scores the winning touchdown.

She goes into labor at precisely kickoff, and the baby arrives as the clock hits zero in the 4th quarter as the goal posts come down. Boom.

 

[daj2576]

Thanks for the response.

I think in modeling it's called degrees of freedom. The more we try to add to the number of factors/variables influencing the model the more the model becomes curve fitted to the data and then fails in it's ability to forecast future performance. The fewer variables, generally the more robust the analysis, statistically speaking. Thanks again.

This is certainly an imperfect system, but it tends to do the job in illustrating what to expect and why. I think the greatest value is in evaluating coaches. In essence, i think it really isolates Who is valuable versus who is perceived as valuable. I'd like to find a coach who is the combination of Petrino's over performance with Saban's ability to recruit. Jones has the markers that indicate he might be just that, and he will hopefully get the opportunity to prove himself.