2014 UT Schedule Analysis....

#52
#52
sjt18 said:
How do you figure those probabilities? That doesn't seem to be the correct methodology.
Click to expand...


From where I sit, this is a series of independent events, with only two possible outcomes. It is like a coin toss, where instead of the likelihood for either outcome being 50% heads and 50% tails, the likelihood is 70% for a win, and 30% for a loss. Given that, how do you think you calculate the likelihood that you either win or loose a series of games, with only two possible outcomes, and a known probability of each outcome?
 
Last edited:
#54
#54
daj2576 said:
From where I sit, this is a series of independent events, with only two possible outcomes. It is like a coin toss, where instead of the likelihood for either outcome being 50% heads and 50% tails, the likelihood is 70% for a win, and 30% for a loss. Given that, how do you think you calculate the likelihood that you either win or loose a series of games, with only two possible outcomes, and a known probability of each outcome?
Click to expand...

I don't think you can use the coin flip formula when there are virtually infinite numbers of outcomes. It seems you would have to relate it back to the probabilities for points scored and allowed for each of the teams or something a good bit deeper.
 
#55
#55
daj2576 said:
(most probable upset is Florida as it is in Neyland and they have a coach who is now the head-and-shoulders under-achiever in the SEC). .
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, I can't agree with this. It would take a total disregard for the last 40 years of history to think playing UF at Neyland poses any sort of advantage to UT as we're 4-10 against them at home since 1975.

I do agree though that Muschamp is a massive underachiever to this point.
 
#56
#56
daj2576 said:
From where I sit, this is a series of independent events, with only two possible outcomes. It is like a coin toss, where instead of the likelihood for either outcome being 50% heads and 50% tails, the likelihood is 70% for a win, and 30% for a loss. Given that, how do you think you calculate the likelihood that you either win or loose a series of games, with only two possible outcomes, and a known probability of each outcome?
Click to expand...

Not claiming to be a math guru by any means but based upon this data, assuming the OK game is 50/50, I plotted the best case probability of each win total from 12 to 0. It's interesting that we have the same probability of achieving a 12-0 record as we do a 5-7 record. Not sure I buy that but here's what it looks like to me.
 

Attachments

  • winProbability.PNG
    winProbability.PNG
    7.1 KB · Views: 4
Last edited:
#57
#57
ntxVOL said:
Not claiming to be a math guru by any means but based upon this data assuming the OK game is 50/50. I plotted the best case probability of each win total from 12 to 0. It's interesting that we have the same probability of achieving a 12-0 record as we do a 5-7 record. Not sure I buy that but here's what it looks like to me.
Click to expand...

We don't have a 50/50 chance to beat Oklahoma. There have been some pretty conclusive studies done that show that the home team, if all other variables are equal, has an advantage approaching 60%. That is why I call that game a loss, even if the talent evaluation is close.
 
#58
#58
daj2576 said:
We don't have a 50/50 chance to beat Oklahoma. There have been some pretty conclusive studies done that show that the home team, if all other variables are equal, has an advantage approaching 60%. That is why I call that game a loss, even if the talent evaluation is close.
Click to expand...

So, weighting for home and away then OK would be 40/60 and bama would also be 40/60 and so on?
 
#59
#59
NotoriousB-I-G said:
Unfortunately, I can't agree with this. It would take a total disregard for the last 40 years of history to think playing UF at Neyland poses any sort of advantage to UT as we're 4-10 against them at home since 1975.

I do agree though that Muschamp is a massive underachiever to this point.
Click to expand...

I said that UF is the most probable upset, not that it was a sure thing, definite, or even likely. And yes, being at home is an advantage, especially against under-achieving coaches.

Also, I can find no consistent time during modern history where UT actually had a four year trailing recruiting average that was better than UF's. That in itself can explain why the series is so lopsided.

You would probably be interested in reading the book "Mathletics" or "Scorecasting", especially the discussion about how bad people are at understanding runs in a series. Many people believe that the preceding event effects the next. I don't, I think they are independent events. Studies have been done that tend to side with me, but I wouldn't say those studies are definitive.

Even in a coin toss, where both outcomes are as likely as the other, there is a much higher chance of a long run of similar outcomes than most people would ever believe. As I mentioned above, I cannot find a time in this series where the outcome should be a coin toss. It is typically 70/30 in favor of UF.

I suggest looking up the so-called "Wald Wolfowitz Runs Test" which illustrates this very thing. Put in a baseball perspective, many people believe a team gets hot during a season. But, math shows that in a 162 game season, that there is a "20% chance that a team with a .60 probability of winning each game will have a winning steak longer than ten games during the season." (see: Mathletics, pg. 91).
 
Last edited:
#60
#60
ntxVOL said:
So, weighting for home and away then OK would be 40/60 and bama would also be 40/60 and so on?
Click to expand...

Not necessarily. I would weigh the home team advantage as approaching 60/40 only when talent is very similar, like the Oklahoma game, or the SCAR game. But those aren't my numbers, so I can only use them in the context that they were used when I read the explanation of the study that provided them. I am still trying to understand how to reconcile that data with my own.

In any other situation, I would pick the team with more talent to win 70%, regardless of venue. Interesting to note that in BCS title games, that number rises to above 90% in favor of the team who recruited better over the preceding 4 years.
 
#62
#62
daj2576 said:
I said that UF is the most probable upset, not that it was a sure thing, definite, or even likely. And yes, being at home is an advantage, especially against under-achieving coaches.

Also, I can find no consistent time during modern history where UT actually had a four year trailing recruiting average that was better than UF's. That in itself can explain why the series is so lopsided.

You would probably be interested in reading the book "Mathletics" or "Scorecasting", especially the discussion about how bad people are at understanding runs in a series. Many people believe that the preceding event effects the next. I don't, I think they are independent events. Studies have been done that tend to side with me, but I wouldn't say those studies are definitive.

Even in a coin toss, where both outcomes are as likely as the other, there is a much higher chance of a long run of similar outcomes than most people would ever believe. As I mentioned above, I cannot find a time in this series where the outcome should be a coin toss. It is typically 70/30 in favor of UF.

I suggest looking up the so-called "Wald Wolfowitz Runs Test" which illustrates this very thing. Put in a baseball perspective, many people believe a team gets hot during a season. But, math shows that in a 162 game season, that there is a "20% chance that a team with a .60 probability of winning each game will have a winning steak longer than ten games during the season." (see: Mathletics, pg. 91).
Click to expand...

If only UT could find a way to win 3 out of every 10 games vs Florida.... that'd be great!!!!

Edit: you sure the probability of a Florida beating UT every year isn't closer to 99/1 Daj? 😊😁
 
#63
#63
sjt18 said:
I don't think you can use the coin flip formula when there are virtually infinite numbers of outcomes. It seems you would have to relate it back to the probabilities for points scored and allowed for each of the teams or something a good bit deeper.
Click to expand...

There aren't an infinite number of outcomes, but I understand why you feel that way.

There are really only two outcomes, a win or a loss. There are a large number of variables that can change score differentials, and that can appear to approach infinity. The reason that Vegas doesn't typically allow betting on a simple winner or loser of a game, and instead uses points spreads, is because of this very fact.

Picking a winner or loser is relatively easy stuff and can be done with consistency, picking a score is a bit harder. I have just shown you how to pick the winner or loser at a rate approaching 70%, if not exceeding it.

I admit, there are very advanced models that exceed this and include an ability to beat the spread with consistency. Talent is a huge factor, regardless of how complex the system is.
 
#64
#64
KBVol said:
If only UT could find a way to win 3 out of every 10 games vs Florida.... that'd be great!!!!

Edit: you sure the probability of a Florida beating UT every year isn't closer to 99/1 Daj? 😊😁
Click to expand...

Why would it approach 99/1?

Even at 70/30 it is probable that UF could win 10/10.

You are looking at the effect of randomness in a series, even when individual probabilities are well known. It even happens in a coin toss where it is highly unlikely that if you flipped 100 times that you would end up with a series of 50 heads and 50 tails, distributed evenly. More than likely you will end up with more heads than tails (or vice versa), and series of runs that don't comport with what you would believe should happen. That doesn't change the fact that individually each flip is likely 50% heads and 50% tails.
 
#65
#65
daj2576 said:
Why would it approach 99/1?

Even at 70/30 it is probable that UF could win 10/10.

You are looking at the effect of randomness in a series, even when individual probabilities are well known. It even happens in a coin toss where it is highly unlikely that if you flipped 100 times that you would end up with a series of 50 heads and 50 tails, distributed evenly. More than likely you will end up with more heads than tails (or vice versa), and series of runs that don't comport with what you would believe should happen. That doesn't change the fact that individually each flip is likely 50% heads and 50% tails.
Click to expand...

I'm kidding daj. Just a rumbling from a frustrated UT fan at the Vols' inability to seemingly ever beat Florida.

Appreciate and admire your incredibly analytic posts on here. Helps balance out the emotional lunacy on here.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#66
#66
ntxVOL said:
Not claiming to be a math guru by any means but based upon this data, assuming the OK game is 50/50, I plotted the best case probability of each win total from 12 to 0. It's interesting that we have the same probability of achieving a 12-0 record as we do a 5-7 record. Not sure I buy that but here's what it looks like to me.
Click to expand...

Interesting. I would say you are closer to correct than many would believe but that the data is probably skewed one game positive do to the Oklahoma inconsistency.
 
#67
#67
KBVol said:
I'm kidding daj. Just a rumbling from a frustrated UT fan at the Vols' inability to seemingly ever beat Florida.

Appreciate and admire your incredibly analytic posts on here. Helps balance out the emotional lunacy on here.
Click to expand...

You think you are frustrated? I am married to an effing Gator. We've been married ten years...
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#70
#70
Using this simplistic approach I would agree that we have the higher probability of 8 wins. I have tried weighting the more talented home teams and even tried applying a 50/50 probability to the USC/Ole Miss games (since they are relatively close to our recruiting level) and the answer is still the same.

Now do I believe that? Hmm, I dunno, an 8-4 regular season seems so far away right now. I just wanna go bowling!
 
Last edited:
#71
#71
daj2576 said:
You think you are frustrated? I am married to an effing Gator. We've been married ten years...
Click to expand...

Oh I'm frustrated (said in Seinfeld voice).... been married to a Massachusetts yankee for 20 years and she doesn't like football.
 
#72
#72
KBVol said:
Oh I'm frustrated (said in Seinfeld voice).... been married to a Massachusetts yankee for 20 years and she doesn't like football.
Click to expand...

I wish I could feel sorry for you. But, I can't. At least in your darkest hour, you don't have to walk into a room with a framed and signed Tebow jersey.
 
#74
#74
gnm53108 said:
Thats true love right there.
Click to expand...

You said it.

She's a good woman, and about to be the mother of our first child (due the first week of October, a girl).

This is how my wife told me we were having a child. I fell in love all over again (it doesn't hurt that my wife looks really really good in a bikini). ;)
 

Attachments

  • 20140201_111302.jpg
    20140201_111302.jpg
    48.2 KB · Views: 4
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top