2020 Presidential Race

It's going to be close. The average of Florida polls on 538 shows Biden with a lead of 49.1% to 45.5% (3.6%). Biden is outperforming Trump among senior citizens, but Trump is outperforming Biden among Latinos and Cuban-Americans. I could see it going either way. I lean towards Biden, just because pretty much every poll (except for Trafalgar) seems to lean towards Biden... and I do trust polls.

wonder if the polls have adjusted their models to account for the increase in Republican registration - it's all about getting the model right

Democrats’ advantage over Republicans among Florida registered voters has shrunk since 2016
 
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I know of about a dozen senior citizens that went from dem to republican. None the other way around. It's anecdotal but we will see. Bunch of elderly wearing Trump stuff today at the booth when I voted today too.

the pollsters adjust their sampling and analysis based on predicted voter models. Florida is changing so the question is have the polls adjusted correctly
 
my outside bet is that if Biden/Harris wins and the FBI/IC sees Harris as the path forward then the Hunter/Joe investigation will heat up
That's probably why the FBI said "thanks we'll take that laptop" a year ago and said nothing more (except this is all a ruskie plan)
 

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