2020 Presidential Race

#13,402
#13,402
C-south said:
Nothing out of the ordinary happened for Trump to win. The polls were simply wrong and people held their cards to the end.
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That by itself, is out of the ordinary. Say what you want about polls, they are not usually wrong. Based on polling data, Nate Silver correctly predicted the outcome in 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and then correctly predicted all 50 in 2012. What happened in 2016 was an anomaly. You can discount polls all you want, but based on their historical accuracy, I would much rather have them favorable to my candidate, then not.
 
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#13,403
#13,403
C-south said:
Nothing out of the ordinary happened for Trump to win. The polls were simply wrong and people held their cards to the end.
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Yeah, I agree. The analogy of polls (and predictions based on polls) to that of mathematical probability is lost on me. Predictive polls have a margin of error and require subjectivity of interpretation to extrapolate data. Probability and odds has no margin of error needed because the data is purely objective...it either is or is not.
 
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#13,407
#13,407
McDad said:
Yeah, I agree. The analogy of polls (and predictions based on polls) to that of mathematical probability is lost on me. Predictive polls have a margin of error and require subjectivity of interpretation to extrapolate data. Probability and odds has no margin of error needed because the data is purely objective...it either is or is not.
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It's not really that complicated. Someone posted something about Hillary being given an 85% chance to win --- based on polls or whatever - it doesn't matter. The insinuation was that everything that led to that 85% chance being given must have been wrong considering she lost. She was also given a 15% chance of losing.
Using the fact that something given a 15% chance of happening actually happened to discount the data that led to those probabilities is ludicrous.
 
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#13,408
#13,408
luthervol said:
It's not really that complicated. Someone posted something about Hillary being given an 85% chance to win --- based on polls or whatever - it doesn't matter. The insinuation was that everything that led to that 85% chance being given must have been wrong considering she lost. She was also given a 15% chance of losing.
Using the fact that something given a 15% chance of happening actually happened to discount the data that led to those probabilities is ludicrous.
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Don't go betting on horses. 6 to 1 odds.
 
#13,409
#13,409
luthervol said:
No. In other words, the thing that was expected to happen 15 out of 100 times happened.
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None of this crap really matters. We all know that it's not the polls themselves that bother Trump supporters right now, it's what their numbers are saying. Just like the Zogby poll that Trump tweeted yesterday, if the polls say anything positive? They are legit, otherwise, they are "fake news".

I will just say this... When the polls are consistent in their findings and there is a consensus result among them, they will be right much more than they will be wrong.
 
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#13,415
#13,415
I'm sure this has been played on here, it just should be repeated. Make sure you play the video. This condescending beotch asks the old woman if she was on Medicare? These things will be repeated over and over again once the Dems have found their savior for 2020. I bet Trumps team is collecting terabytes of these little goodies.

https://thefederalist.com/2019/08/1...kamala-harris-leave-health-care-system-alone/
 
#13,417
#13,417
McDad said:
Yeah, I agree. The analogy of polls (and predictions based on polls) to that of mathematical probability is lost on me. Predictive polls have a margin of error and require subjectivity of interpretation to extrapolate data. Probability and odds has no margin of error needed because the data is purely objective...it either is or is not.
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unless the ballot machines had 85 Hilary balls and 15 trump balls to choose from and people were blindfolded, their excuse doesn't really hold up.

I will just leave everyone that mental image to ponder for a while.
 
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#13,418
#13,418
From the Associated Press:

While speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday, President Donald Trump said that Jewish-Americans who vote for Democrats show either "a total lack of knowledge or great disloyalty".

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That is the definition of playing identity politics. It also ignores the fact that roughly 70% of Jewish-Americans identify their political persuasion as being liberal, and they support Democratic Party candidates for office. Whether he realizes it or not, Trump just accused a majority of Jewish-Americans of either being ignorant or disloyal.
 
#13,419
#13,419
BowlBrother85 said:
From the Associated Press:

While speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday, President Donald Trump said that Jewish-Americans who vote for Democrats show either "a total lack of knowledge or great disloyalty".

****************

That is the definition of playing identity politics. It also ignores the fact that roughly 70% of Jewish-Americans identify their political persuasion as being liberal, and they support Democratic Party candidates for office. Whether he realizes it or not, he just accused a majority of Jewish-Americans of either being ignorant or disloyal.
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Impeach Impeach Impeach .........YGHN. Impeach Impeach Impeach.
 
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#13,420
#13,420
W.TN.Orange Blood said:
Impeach Impeach Impeach .........YGHN. Impeach Impeach Impeach.
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That is just the same old, boring-ass, comeback line you use when you can't defend something stupid that Trump has said, but you still feel the need to say something anyway. Where did I mention impeachment or even imply that it was any more significant than any of the other dumb statements our idiot president makes on a daily basis? I didn't.
 
#13,421
#13,421
BowlBrother85 said:
That is just the same old, boring-ass, comeback line you use when you can't defend something stupid that Trump has said, but you still feel the need to say something anyway. Where did I mention impeachment or even imply that it was any more significant than any of the other dumb statements our idiot president makes on a daily basis? I didn't.
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I would reply to your crying liberal tears w/your all things Trump bad syndrome but I'm eating supper right now.
 
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#13,424
#13,424
BowlBrother85 said:
That is just the same old, boring-ass, comeback line you use when you can't defend something stupid that Trump has said, but you still feel the need to say something anyway. Where did I mention impeachment or even imply that it was any more significant than any of the other dumb statements our idiot president makes on a daily basis? I didn't.
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There's nothing to defend Chief. We all know who Trump is. Don't care what he says.. care what he does. And he is doing a lot of winning
 
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