2024 Presidential Race

[CagleMtnVol]

Which is exactly why they needed her on stage. You've never heard of her. Republicans are losing the culture war. You won't lose a single voter putting her on stage but you might get an additional 25k votes as a result of her 23M followers. I've always thought of her as just a bad chick but she is way more intelligent than what I gave her credit for. Her pitch tones were fabulous, and she was thoughtful and well spoken. The democrats are up in arms. She is not the only one trying to leave the plantation but she was bold enough to go public. She is an example of Trump grabbing a higher % of the black vote.

She gave credit to her father for her giving DJT another look and told her to do her on homework and not listen to what the media tells her.

 

[BreatheUT]

Please tell me this has already been posted. Good grief this is massive. I think Elon used to lean left. The key word is "used to".

This has to be intimidating for the opposition.

Elon Musk plans to give $45 million a month to pro-Trump super PAC, WSJ reports​

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www.cnbc.com

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

 

[BreatheUT]

Trump is poised for one of the biggest comebacks in U.S. political history | STAFF COMMENTARY

Trump is poised for one of the biggest comebacks in U.S. political history | STAFF COMMENTARY

Trump and Vance now have all the momentum in the 2024 presidential race. Can Democrats turn the tide before Election Day?

www.baltimoresun.com

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

 

[Orangeburst]

Tough luck Bill..you chose your guy and are stuck with him.

 

[85SugarVol]

Leaning Biden according to 538

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Does their simulation assume Trump dies?

 

[volfanhill]

Does their simulation assume Trump dies?

View attachment 659505

Don't know. All those you posted are well within margin of error and are national polling. 538 is a break down of electoral map

 

[85SugarVol]

Don't know. All those you posted are well within margin of error and are national polling. 538 is a break down of electoral map

Yea, they were just the ones immediately below the graphical breakdown of their simulation.

They must have Biden doing well in the battleground states… for some reason

 

[volinbham]

Don't know. All those you posted are well within margin of error and are national polling. 538 is a break down of electoral map

they factor in all sorts of turnout and other data to make their predictions. looking at their map they give states to Biden where Trump has 4+% leads (like PA) and others with 3+% leads. maybe they are correct and I haven't dug into their methodology.

pre-assassination attempt they had Trump with a slight lead. RCP published polls show a slight move up in Trump's swing state leads so I don't know what 538 is doing different than RCP

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

Joe Biden is the Top Shelf of morons. He's got to be the dumbest POTUS ever.

 

[volfanhill]

they factor in all sorts of turnout and other data to make their predictions. looking at their map they give states to Biden where Trump has 4+% leads (like PA) and others with 3+% leads. maybe they are correct and I haven't dug into their methodology.

It's strange bc they claim it's a Biden lean and Nate Silver models it basically over Trump win. Typically they are my go to for this.

 

[85SugarVol]

It's strange bc they claim it's a Biden lean and Nate Silver models it basically over Trump win. Typically they are my go to for this.

I like 538 and RCP

 

[Vol423]

they factor in all sorts of turnout and other data to make their predictions. looking at their map they give states to Biden where Trump has 4+% leads (like PA) and others with 3+% leads. maybe they are correct and I haven't dug into their methodology.

pre-assassination attempt they had Trump with a slight lead. RCP published polls show a slight move up in Trump's swing state leads so I don't know what 538 is doing different than RCP

Ummmm…making **** up? Liberals do that.

 

[Vol423]

I like 538 and RCP

I’ve never even heard of 538. RCP has Trump winning the electoral college going handily.

 

[volinbham]

Ummmm…making **** up? Liberals do that.

they are running models - maybe there's bias in the models but they've been pretty accurate as has RCP but they are at odds on this one. the 538 factors in past election behavior and turnout modeling whereas RCP is just polling data.

the odd thing to me is how 538 was slightly favoring Trump maybe 5-6 days ago. a new set of polls (swing state) came out that show up in RCP but they were all before (I think) the assassination attempt. between that and the RNC convention I'm guessing 538 will switch back to a Trump lead.

 

[volfanhill]

I’ve never even heard of 538. RCP has Trump winning the electoral college going handily.

If you haven't heard of 538 then you haven't been paying attention for 15 years

 

[Vol423]

they are running models - maybe there's bias in the models but they've been pretty accurate as has RCP but they are at odds on this one. the 538 factors in past election behavior and turnout modeling whereas RCP is just polling data.

the odd thing to me is how 538 was slightly favoring Trump maybe 5-6 days ago. a new set of polls (swing state) came out that show up in RCP but they were all before (I think) the assassination attempt. between that and the RNC convention I'm guessing 538 will switch back to a Trump lead.

So, 538 is garbage. They’re just assuming, for instance, that the African American vote will end up going almost entirely to Biden. Polls show he has alienated virtually every historical Democratic voter block. That’s what happens when you’re BY FAR the worst President in U.S. history.

 

[Vol423]

If you haven't heard of 538 then you haven't been paying attention for 20 years

No. I’m just not a 20 or 30 something constantly on twitter or any other social media for that matter.

 

[volfanhill]

No. I’m just not a 20 or 30 something constantly on twitter or any other social media for that matter.

Yea they are idiots


The 538 model correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Silver, along with at least two academic-based analysts who aggregated polls from multiple pollsters, thus not only correctly predicted all 50 states, but also all nine "swing states".

 

[volinbham]

So, 538 is garbage. They’re just assuming, for instance, that the African American vote will end up going almost entirely to Biden. Polls show he has alienated virtually every historical Democratic voter block. That’s what happens when you’re BY FAR the worst President in U.S. history.

they aren't garbage - their models may not be correct at this point in time (or they might be dead on).

 

[volfanhill]

No. I’m just not a 20 or 30 something constantly on twitter or any other social media for that matter.

Umm they aren't social media. They are a company that predicts things. You just have to be aware.

 

[BreatheUT]

 

[Orangeslice13]

Here’s the ****ing problem with this country and the dipshits that vote for our leaders.

I try to put Nichole Shanahan in the google to read about her stances. When you do the the suggestions are “ethnicity” “race” “net worth “ “husband” “lifestyle “.ect. “Political views “ not listed. “Platform” nowhere to be found. “Beliefs”. Nope.
When you type those things in, you still get to dig to find out what her stance on any issue is. Apparently it’s way more important to know she might have had an affair with Elon Musk…..maybe.

We are so ****ed.

 

[Orangeslice13]